The stablecoin market size has further grown from the $284 billion mentioned in the news to approximately $318 billion, mainly dominated by USDT and USDC.
1. **Stablecoins as a catalyst for 'digital cash' will accelerate the blockchain transformation of banks, rather than simply posing a threat**: Although the news emphasizes complementarity, if banks do not proactively embrace stablecoin technology (such as issuing their own pegged coins), they may be marginalized in the payment sector. The uniqueness lies in the fact that the growth of stablecoins does not seize deposits, but rather forces banks to shift from passive defense to proactive innovation, such as reducing cross-border settlement costs by up to 30-50% through integration with the stablecoin ecosystem. This may give rise to a 'hybrid finance' model, where bank deposits coexist with stablecoins, forming a more efficient global payment network—imagine traditional bank accounts seamlessly connecting with crypto wallets, this will be the true starting point of the payment revolution.
2. **In emerging markets, the dollarization effect of stablecoins amplifies financial inclusion but simultaneously weakens sovereign currency control**: Stablecoins enhance transaction efficiency, but the unique perspective is that in developing countries (such as Latin America or Africa), stablecoins serve as a foreign currency (such as the dollar) pegging tool, providing an instant payment channel for the unbanked population, with a potential market size reaching trillions of dollars. However, this may exacerbate local currency depreciation and capital outflows, creating 'invisible dollar hegemony'. Compared to the complementarity of bank deposits, stablecoins here act more like a double-edged sword: short-term efficiency gains, long-term challenges to central bank authority, forcing emerging markets to accelerate the launch of local CBDCs in response.
3. **If stablecoins are allowed to pay interest, they will shift from being complementary to direct competitors, triggering a 'yield war' for deposits**: The concerns within the banking industry mentioned in the news are well-founded—if regulations are relaxed to allow stablecoins to offer yields (such as through DeFi protocols), banks may lose up to $66 trillion in deposits, mainly affecting the commercial rather than retail sector. The unique viewpoint is that this is not a simple migration, but rather the beginning of a 'yield war': the low cost and high liquidity advantages of stablecoins will pressure banks to increase deposit rates or innovate products (such as tokenized deposits), with consumers being the ultimate beneficiaries, but small and medium-sized banks may be eliminated in the competition, leading to further market concentration.
