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Introduction: Why the World Needs a Stablecoin-First Blockchain Over the past decade, blockchain technology has promised a financial system that is open, permissionless, and global. Yet despite the innovation, one reality has become increasingly clear: most blockchains are not optimized for money itself. They are optimized for speculation. High-frequency trading, NFTs, meme coins, yield farming, and MEV extraction have shaped the design choices of most Layer 1s. While these activities generate volume, they also introduce volatility, congestion, unpredictable fees, and security risks — all of which are unacceptable for real-world payments. Meanwhile, stablecoins have quietly become crypto’s most successful product. Today, stablecoins: Settle hundreds of billions of dollars monthly Power cross-border remittances Serve as dollar rails for emerging markets Are increasingly used by institutions, fintechs, and payment providers Yet stablecoins still live on chains that were never designed for them. This is the gap Plasma is trying to fill. Plasma is not trying to be “everything for everyone.” It is trying to be one thing, done extremely well: 👉 A neutral, fast, secure settlement layer for stablecoins. Plasma’s Core Philosophy: Narrow Scope, Maximum Reliability One of the most misunderstood ideas in crypto is that general-purpose blockchains are always superior. In reality, specialization often wins. Just as: Databases specialize (OLTP vs OLAP) Networks specialize (CDNs vs P2P) Financial rails specialize (SWIFT vs Visa vs ACH) Plasma takes a specialized Layer 1 approach. Its philosophy is built on three core beliefs: Stablecoins deserve their own infrastructure Payments should not compete with speculation Settlement must be boring, predictable, and neutral By intentionally limiting the scope of the chain, Plasma reduces: Attack surface Congestion risk Governance complexity Incentive conflicts This is why Plasma feels less like a “crypto casino” and more like financial plumbing — invisible when it works, catastrophic only when it doesn’t. Technical Architecture Overview Layer 1 Design Plasma is a Layer 1 blockchain, not a rollup or app-chain dependent on another smart contract platform for execution. Key components include: Reth Execution Engine (EVM compatible) PlasmaBFT Consensus Bitcoin-anchored security model Stablecoin-native gas and fee abstraction This combination allows Plasma to maintain: High performance Developer familiarity Long-term neutrality Institutional-grade reliability EVM Compatibility via Reth: Familiar Tools, Fewer Frictions Plasma integrates Reth, a high-performance Ethereum execution client written in Rust. This choice is critical. Why EVM Matters Developers don’t need to learn a new VM Existing Solidity contracts can be deployed with minimal changes Tooling (Hardhat, Foundry, MetaMask) works out of the box Auditors already understand the execution environment However, Plasma does not blindly copy Ethereum’s economic model. Instead, it selectively adopts: Execution compatibility while redesigning: Fee logic Blockspace incentives Network priorities This separation allows Plasma to keep the developer ecosystem, without inheriting Ethereum’s congestion and fee volatility problems. PlasmaBFT: Sub-Second Finality for Real Payments Payments are not DeFi trades. They need: Immediate confirmation Strong finality guarantees Predictable settlement times Plasma uses PlasmaBFT, a Byzantine Fault Tolerant consensus mechanism optimized for: Fast block times Deterministic finality Low latency across regions Why This Matters Merchants can accept payments without waiting Institutions can reconcile balances instantly Payment processors can batch settlements in real time Cross-border transfers feel like local transfers Unlike probabilistic finality systems, PlasmaBFT provides clear transaction finality — a non-negotiable requirement for financial infrastructure. Stablecoin-Native Gas Model: Removing the UX Tax One of Plasma’s most important innovations is its stablecoin-native gas abstraction. Problems with Traditional Gas Models Users must hold volatile native tokens Gas prices fluctuate unpredictably UX becomes hostile for non-crypto users Accounting becomes complex for businesses Plasma flips this model entirely. What Plasma Enables Gasless USDT transfers Fees paid directly in stablecoins No need to hold $XPL for basic usage Predictable, flat-cost transactions For end users, this feels like: “I send $100, and $100 arrives.” No hidden volatility. No surprise fees. No token juggling. This single design choice makes Plasma dramatically more suitable for mass adoption than most Layer 1s. Security Anchored to Bitcoin: Neutrality Over Narrative Security is where Plasma becomes truly interesting. Rather than tying its legitimacy to: Token price Governance politics Foundation control Plasma anchors its security assumptions to Bitcoin. Why Bitcoin? Most decentralized network on Earth No central issuer No governance capture Highest cost of attack By linking to Bitcoin’s security, Plasma positions itself as: Politically neutral Resistant to censorship Credible to institutions Durable over decades This matters especially for stablecoins, which already exist at the intersection of: Regulation Sovereignty Global finance A neutral base layer is not optional — it is essential. Plasma Is Not a DeFi Playground — And That’s the Point A common question asked is: “Can Plasma support DeFi?” Technically? Yes. Philosophically? That’s not the goal. Plasma is optimized for: Transfers Settlements Payments Treasury flows Institutional rails High-risk DeFi activities: Compete for blockspace Introduce MEV Increase congestion Create incentive misalignment Plasma’s design intentionally discourages speculative dominance, ensuring that stablecoin users are never priced out or delayed by unrelated activity. In this sense, Plasma resembles: Visa more than Ethereum SWIFT more than Solana Infrastructure more than ecosystem hype Global Adoption: Built for Emerging Markets and Institutions Plasma’s architecture directly targets two massive user groups: 1. High-Adoption Consumer Markets Emerging economies Inflation-prone regions Remittance-heavy corridors Benefits: Near-zero fees Dollar-denominated transfers Mobile-friendly UX No banking dependency 2. Institutions and Payment Providers Treasury settlement Cross-border clearing Stablecoin issuance On-chain reconciliation For institutions, Plasma offers: Predictability Compliance-friendly design Transparent settlement Neutral base layer Economic Model: Infrastructure First, Speculation Second Plasma’s economic design reflects its philosophy. Instead of maximizing: Token velocity Yield farming Inflationary rewards It focuses on: Sustainability Long-term usage Infrastructure alignment $XPL exists primarily to: Secure the network Align validators Support governance over time Not to be endlessly farmed or dumped. Why Plasma Matters in the Next Financial Cycle Crypto cycles change narratives. The last cycle was about: NFTs DeFi Memes The next cycle is shaping up to be about: Stablecoins Payments Real-world adoption Institutional rails In that future, the question will not be: “Which chain has the most TVL?” It will be: “Which chain can quietly settle trillions without breaking?” Plasma is betting that boring wins. Conclusion: Plasma as Financial Infrastructure, Not Hype Plasma is not trying to replace Ethereum. It is not competing with Solana on memes. It is not selling yield or narratives. It is building something far less exciting — and far more important: A stable, neutral, global settlement layer for money. In a world where stablecoins are becoming digital cash, Plasma positions itself as the rail, not the casino. And historically, the rails are what last. @Plasma #Plasma $XPL
Why Plasma Is Built to Endure When Markets Go Quiet
After watching multiple bear markets play out, one lesson keeps repeating itself: hype-driven projects disappear, while teams focused on real utility keep moving forward. Plasma fits much more into the second category.
When the market cools down, speculation slows almost to a stop—but stablecoins don’t. People still use them to protect capital, send money, settle payments, and sit safely on the sidelines during uncertainty. That usage doesn’t disappear in a bear market; it simply stops making noise.
Plasma ( $XPL ) is designed around this steady, always-on demand. As a low-cost Layer 1 optimized for stablecoin transfers, it doesn’t depend heavily on token speculation to stay relevant. Its usefulness exists even when excitement fades, which makes it more practical than many cycle-dependent chains.
Of course, bear markets are also pressure tests. Liquidity dries up, incentives weaken, and network participants are challenged. These conditions reveal which projects are truly resilient.
If Plasma can stay reliable and functional during these quiet periods, it builds credibility. And when the market mood eventually shifts, a network that proved its value in tough conditions often becomes one of the most interesting stories to watch.
Most blockchains still treat staking as a manual process. Dusk takes a different approach. With Hyperstaking, smart contracts can handle staking, rebalancing, and rewards automatically. This enables deposit-and-earn pools, liquid staking tokens, and transparent treasury rules that are fully auditable—without requiring everyone to operate a node. It may not sound flashy, but this kind of infrastructure is exactly how real financial systems move on-chain. #Dusk @Dusk $DUSK
The 'invisible ticket' for institutional entry: Why Dusk ($DUSK) is the only solution for the RWA
The 'invisible ticket' for institutional entry: Why Dusk ( $DUSK ) is the only solution for the RWA track in 2026? RWA (real-world assets) has been called for two whole years; why is the trillion-level institutional funds we expect still observing off-chain? Many attribute the reason to regulation, but the more awkward reason lies in infrastructure: current public chains simply cannot support business secrets. Imagine if you are JPMorgan; would you want every trading strategy and every holding detail of yours to be publicly watched by retail investors and competitors on-chain? The first rule of the business world is opacity, but the first rule of blockchain is transparency. This seemingly unsolvable 'deadlock' is the roadblock preventing RWA from truly exploding. And this is why I am firmly optimistic about @Dusk ($DUSK )'s underlying logic. Dusk has not focused on TPS; it has only been tackling one thing for the past few years: resolving the contradiction between 'privacy' and 'compliance.' 1. Citadel: Issuing users an 'invisible ID card' The killer feature of Dusk is the Citadel protocol. Traditional KYC involves uploading your passport photo to a centralized server (waiting to be hacked). Citadel, however, utilizes ZK (zero-knowledge proof) technology, allowing you to simply prove 'I am compliant' or 'I am over 18' without having to reveal 'who I am.' This is perfect for institutions: they meet regulatory KYC/AML requirements without bearing the risk of exposing user privacy. 2. Piecrust VM: Born for high-frequency trading Many privacy public chains are as slow as snails, unable to run financial operations at all. But Dusk's self-developed Piecrust virtual machine has compressed the generation time of ZK proofs to the 50 millisecond level. This means that stock, bond, and even high-frequency options trading can finally operate on-chain with privacy protection. This is not theory; this is the empirical data after the mainnet launch in January 2026. 3. The inevitability of value return In this market, some focus on appearance (marketing), while others focus on substance (infrastructure). $DUSK What is being done is the most hardcore infrastructure for Web3 finance. As the regulatory stick comes down, those projects that cannot meet audit requirements will go to zero, while Layer 1 projects like Dusk, which come with 'compliance genes,' will absorb the largest capital overflow. If you believe the ultimate goal of Web3 is to integrate with traditional finance, then you must configure Dusk. Because in that future, it is the only place that can make Wall Street feel 'safe.' @Dusk #dusk $DUSK
Market prices often tell an emotional story. On-chain data tells a structural one. While prices struggled through the past cycle, the underlying fundamentals quietly kept improving. This disconnect is something experienced participants have seen before — and it usually appears near periods of long-term opportunity. Here’s what the data actually shows: 1. Exchange balances are declining Coins moving off exchanges reduce immediate sell pressure. This behavior is typical when holders prefer custody over quick exits — a sign of growing conviction, not panic. 2. Staking continues to hit record levels Higher staking participation means more supply is locked and unavailable for short-term trading. This naturally tightens circulating supply and increases sensitivity to future demand. 3. Developer activity remains resilient Despite price volatility, builders never stopped. Infrastructure upgrades, protocol improvements, and tooling development continued throughout the downturn. Historically, this is where the next cycle’s winners are built. 4. Liquidity is thinning quietly When fewer coins are liquid, markets become structurally stronger. Price may stay flat for a while, but once demand returns, moves tend to be sharper and faster than expected. The mistake many make is assuming price weakness equals network weakness. In reality, the strongest foundations are often built during the most boring and uncomfortable phases. Markets reward patience, not noise. They reward builders, not spectators. Price reacts late. Fundamentals move first. What matters most right now isn’t predicting the next candle — it’s recognizing when the structure is improving beneath the surface. #Bit_Rase #Binance #BinanceSquareFamily
Markets reward patience, not noise. Builders don’t wait for green candles — they create the conditions for them. Strong ecosystems are built in silence and recognized in hindsight. #Bit_Rase #Binance
In every cycle, one thing remains unchanged: stablecoin demand. While volatility scared traders away, stablecoin volumes stayed strong. People still needed to move value, hedge risk, and wait. Ecosystems optimized for settlement, liquidity, and reliability benefited quietly. Stablecoins don’t pump. They compound relevance. And relevance always wins long-term #Binance
AI tokens come and go. AI infrastructure lasts. During market weakness, the strongest AI + Web3 projects focused less on hype and more on compute, data pipelines, and real integrations. Builders know one thing: intelligence needs rails. The next AI wave won’t be powered by buzzwords. It’ll be powered by protocols that quietly worked while attention was elsewhere. Builders are positioning early. #Bit_Rase #Binance
BNB Chain rarely gets credit during slow markets, yet adoption never stopped. Developers kept shipping consumer-focused apps. Fees stayed low. User activity remained consistent. When hype fades, ecosystems with real users survive. BNB Chain’s strength has always been practicality over perfection. That’s why it continues to matter when cycles reset. Price lags. Utility stays. #Bit_Rase #Binance
🔵 Plasma: Built for What Never Stops — Stablecoins
Speculation comes and goes. Stablecoins don’t. That’s where Plasma stands out. While markets cooled, stablecoin usage remained constant — payments, settlements, value preservation. Plasma’s focus on fast finality, gas efficiency, and stablecoin-native design makes it relevant regardless of market mood. Bear markets remove noise. They reward chains built for real demand. Plasma isn’t chasing narratives — it’s serving usage. #Bit_Rase #Binance
When prices slowed in 2025, many assumed Ethereum was losing momentum. On-chain reality told a different story. Developer activity remained resilient. Core upgrades continued. Staking reached new highs, steadily reducing liquid supply. At the same time, exchange balances kept falling — a classic sign of long-term conviction. Ethereum has always moved the same way: infrastructure first, price later. Most people only notice the breakout. Builders notice the groundwork. #Bit_Rase #Binance
Most people think crypto success comes from catching the next pump. In reality, the biggest gains are built when no one is paying attention. 2025 was a tough year for prices. Volatility, fear, and exhaustion pushed many traders out. But something important happened beneath the surface 👇 🔗 Builders Never Left While price action struggled, developer activity stayed strong across major ecosystems. GitHub commits remained stable Core protocol upgrades continued Infrastructure teams kept shipping History shows a clear pattern: 👉 Markets recover where builders never stopped building. 📉 Exchange Balances Are Falling (Quiet Accumulation) On-chain data shows a steady decline in exchange balances. What does that mean? Less coins available for instant selling More assets moving to cold storage & staking Long-term conviction replacing short-term speculation This is not retail behavior. This is how smart money positions before narratives return. 🔒 Staking at All-Time Highs = Reduced Liquid Supply Another key signal many ignore: staking participation hit record levels. When users stake: Supply becomes illiquid Selling pressure decreases Network security improves Price doesn’t react immediately — but fundamentals quietly tighten. Markets don’t move on hype alone. They move when supply meets demand imbalance. 🏗️ Fundamentals Improve Before Price — Always Every major cycle has taught the same lesson: Fundamentals improve Builders keep shipping Smart money accumulates Narrative returns Price follows Most people only notice step 5. By then, the opportunity is already priced in. 🎯 Final Thought Bear markets don’t kill strong projects — they expose weak ones. If you focus only on candles, you’ll miss the bigger picture. If you study on-chain data, developer behavior, and supply dynamics, you start thinking like a builder — not a gambler. Noise fades. Fundamentals compound. #Bit_Rase #Binance
Silver’s Sudden Crash: Are Old Ghosts From Wall Street Back in Play?
Silver just experienced one of the most violent intraday drops in modern history — the steepest since 1980. In a single session, prices collapsed by over 32%, and within roughly 48 hours, an estimated $2.5 trillion in market value was wiped out. Moves of that magnitude don’t happen without leaving questions behind. And one question is echoing loudly again: Is JPMorgan somehow part of this story — again? This suspicion isn’t born from conspiracy or internet rumors. JPMorgan Chase has a very real, very public history here. Between 2008 and 2016, the bank was found guilty by the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC of manipulating precious metals markets. The outcome? A $920 million fine and criminal convictions of several traders for running massive spoofing schemes — placing fake orders to move prices, then canceling them. That background matters when you look at how this latest silver collapse unfolded. To understand why, you first have to understand how silver trades today. Most silver trading has little to do with physical metal. The majority of activity happens in futures markets, where paper contracts vastly outnumber real ounces. For every ounce of physical silver, there are hundreds of paper claims tied to it. In that kind of system, prices can swing wildly even if nothing changes in real-world supply or demand. JPMorgan sits right at the heart of this structure. It’s one of the dominant bullion banks on COMEX and also one of the largest holders of physical silver — both registered and eligible. That dual role gives it influence in paper markets while still having access to physical delivery. Not many players can operate on both sides at that scale. Here’s the uncomfortable question investors are asking: Who actually benefits when a highly leveraged market collapses fast? It’s not retail traders. It’s not overleveraged funds facing margin calls. It’s the institution with a balance sheet strong enough to ride out chaos — and buy when others are forced to sell. Before the crash, silver prices had gone nearly vertical. Long positions surged, many of them built on leverage. When prices began to slip, most traders didn’t voluntarily exit — they were pushed out. Exchanges raised margin requirements aggressively, meaning traders suddenly needed much more cash just to stay in the game. Many couldn’t, and positions were liquidated automatically, triggering a cascading sell-off. This is where JPMorgan’s role becomes especially relevant. While smaller players were being flushed out, a giant like JPMorgan wasn’t threatened by margin hikes. In fact, those hikes reduced competition. At the same time, the bank could cover short positions at much lower prices, locking in gains, while also taking delivery of physical silver at depressed levels. COMEX data shows that during the crash, JPMorgan issued 633 February silver contracts — meaning it was positioned on the short side. The claim circulating among traders is simple: shorts were likely established near the peak and closed much lower, while others were liquidated under pressure. Then there’s the global picture. In U.S. paper markets, silver prices collapsed. But in Shanghai, physical silver continued trading at dramatically higher levels — at one point around $136. That gap is telling. Physical demand didn’t disappear. What broke was the paper price. So this wasn’t about a sudden glut of real silver hitting the market. It was about leverage, forced selling, and paper contracts unraveling under stress. No one has to prove that JPMorgan engineered the crash to see the deeper issue. The structure of the silver market itself rewards the biggest, most capitalized players during extreme volatility. And when that structure intersects with a bank that has already been convicted of manipulating silver in the past, skepticism is not paranoia — it’s rational. History doesn’t need to repeat word for word to send a familiar message. Sometimes it just rhymes — especially in markets built on leverage, opacity, and paper promises. #Bit_Rase #Binance #XAG #BinanceSquare
Silver’s Sudden Crash: Are Old Ghosts From Wall Street Back in Play?
Silver just experienced one of the most violent intraday drops in modern history — the steepest since 1980. In a single session, prices collapsed by over 32%, and within roughly 48 hours, an estimated $2.5 trillion in market value was wiped out. Moves of that magnitude don’t happen without leaving questions behind. And one question is echoing loudly again: Is JPMorgan somehow part of this story — again? This suspicion isn’t born from conspiracy or internet rumors. JPMorgan Chase has a very real, very public history here. Between 2008 and 2016, the bank was found guilty by the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC of manipulating precious metals markets. The outcome? A $920 million fine and criminal convictions of several traders for running massive spoofing schemes — placing fake orders to move prices, then canceling them. That background matters when you look at how this latest silver collapse unfolded. To understand why, you first have to understand how silver trades today. Most silver trading has little to do with physical metal. The majority of activity happens in futures markets, where paper contracts vastly outnumber real ounces. For every ounce of physical silver, there are hundreds of paper claims tied to it. In that kind of system, prices can swing wildly even if nothing changes in real-world supply or demand. JPMorgan sits right at the heart of this structure. It’s one of the dominant bullion banks on COMEX and also one of the largest holders of physical silver — both registered and eligible. That dual role gives it influence in paper markets while still having access to physical delivery. Not many players can operate on both sides at that scale. Here’s the uncomfortable question investors are asking: Who actually benefits when a highly leveraged market collapses fast? It’s not retail traders. It’s not overleveraged funds facing margin calls. It’s the institution with a balance sheet strong enough to ride out chaos — and buy when others are forced to sell. Before the crash, silver prices had gone nearly vertical. Long positions surged, many of them built on leverage. When prices began to slip, most traders didn’t voluntarily exit — they were pushed out. Exchanges raised margin requirements aggressively, meaning traders suddenly needed much more cash just to stay in the game. Many couldn’t, and positions were liquidated automatically, triggering a cascading sell-off. This is where JPMorgan’s role becomes especially relevant. While smaller players were being flushed out, a giant like JPMorgan wasn’t threatened by margin hikes. In fact, those hikes reduced competition. At the same time, the bank could cover short positions at much lower prices, locking in gains, while also taking delivery of physical silver at depressed levels. COMEX data shows that during the crash, JPMorgan issued 633 February silver contracts — meaning it was positioned on the short side. The claim circulating among traders is simple: shorts were likely established near the peak and closed much lower, while others were liquidated under pressure. Then there’s the global picture. In U.S. paper markets, silver prices collapsed. But in Shanghai, physical silver continued trading at dramatically higher levels — at one point around $136. That gap is telling. Physical demand didn’t disappear. What broke was the paper price. So this wasn’t about a sudden glut of real silver hitting the market. It was about leverage, forced selling, and paper contracts unraveling under stress. No one has to prove that JPMorgan engineered the crash to see the deeper issue. The structure of the silver market itself rewards the biggest, most capitalized players during extreme volatility. And when that structure intersects with a bank that has already been convicted of manipulating silver in the past, skepticism is not paranoia — it’s rational. History doesn’t need to repeat word for word to send a familiar message. Sometimes it just rhymes — especially in markets built on leverage, opacity, and paper promises. #Bit_Rase #Binance #XAG #BinanceSquare
Silver -30%: When 'safe-haven assets' become the most dangerous things January 30. Silver plunged 30% in a single day. The bloodiest day since 1980. $121 dropped to $75. SLV collapsed by 30%, AGQ (2x leverage) was halved and then halved again. Trigger point? Kevin Warsh was nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Market interpretation: concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve eased, the dollar rebounded, and the logic of safe-haven assets instantly collapsed. The technical indicators have long warned: the price has exceeded 100% of the 200-day moving average, the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level has been reached, and CME margins have been continuously raised to 16.5%. But the most surreal thing is: the Chinese spot market is currently buying physical silver at a premium of $30/ounce over the spot price. Paper silver is collapsing. Physical silver is being crazily snatched up. Which one is real?
May 2019, November 2022, February 2026: three structurally similar instances, two outcomes known Expand the timeline. May 2019. Bitcoin rebounded from the bear market low of $3,200 to $8,000, and then began to consolidate. Miner profit margins were squeezed to the limit — many S9 miners were considering shutting down. Institutional participation remained limited — Grayscale's GBTC premium was fluctuating. Market sentiment? Neither extreme fear nor extreme greed — it was confusion. Then what? After another 8 months of sideways movement, in March 2020, the COVID black swan hit $3,800, and then it surged all the way to $69,000. November 2022. Bitcoin fell from its historical high of $69,000 to $16,000, and FTX just collapsed. A real shutdown of miners occurred — hash rate dropped by 15% in two months. Institutions? Either liquidating or on the sidelines. Grayscale's GBTC premium turned into a 40% discount. The Fear & Greed index lingered in the 10-20 range for a long time. So what? The bottom. Two years later, Bitcoin reached $100,000. February 2026. Now. BTC $75,648. ETH $2,197. Down about 25% from the peak. Miner S19 series has reached shutdown price, S21 series is approaching. ETFs just experienced a $1.1 billion monthly outflow. Fear & Greed index 13. Gold has just plummeted 10%, and the market's definition of "safe-haven assets" is shaking. Structural similarities: 1. Miner pressure has reached a critical point 2. Institutional behavior has shifted from "continuous buying" to "wait-and-see or reduce holdings" 3. Market sentiment is in extreme fear 4. The macro environment is filled with uncertainty (2019 was the trade war, 2022 was the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, 2026 is Warsh + geopolitical issues) So it will be fine.
Fear Index 13: What is the most dangerous thing in a market of extreme fear? Crypto Fear & Greed Index, today’s reading is 13. What does this number mean? "Extreme fear" — on the emotional side, this is the lowest range in the past 12 months. In history, extreme fear ranges usually signify one of two things: either a bottom area (when everyone is afraid, it’s the opportunity), or a precursor to a larger collapse (fear often has reasons). All assets are in DROP. But let me tell you a piece of data: the last time the index was below 15 was in June 2022, when Bitcoin was around $20,000. Three months later, it was still $20,000. Two months later, FTX collapsed, and it dropped to $15,500. So extreme fear = bottom? No. Extreme fear = not at the bottom yet? Also no. The fear index tells you about emotion, not direction. When everyone is afraid, the question you need to ask is not 'should I buy', but 'what are they afraid of'. Now, the sources of fear are clear: ETFs are flowing out (institutions are uncertain), miners are approaching shutdown prices (producers are under pressure), gold has just collapsed (the 'safe haven' narrative is shaken), Warsh has been nominated (dollar policy is uncertain). Do these fears make sense? Of course they do. Each one is a real pressure. But the most dangerous part of fear is not its existence. It's that it can lead you to make decisions based on emotion rather than analysis. In a market of extreme fear, the most dangerous thing is not falling too much. It's making a decision out of fear that you'll regret in three months. The number is 13.
Kevin Warsh: The person no one is talking about, redefining the meaning of 'dollar' On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Gold plummeted by 10%. Silver fell by 35%. Bitcoin dropped by 5%. The dollar index rose by 0.8% that day. The market's reaction was so intense, but the next day, hardly anyone was discussing who this person was. This is exactly what makes me alert. Warsh's resume is very clear: he was a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, and the only one to vote against QE2 in 2010. His reasoning at the time was that quantitative easing would create asset bubbles without fixing the real economy. History has proven he was right in part—QE2 indeed did not significantly boost the real economy, but the bubbles were more resilient than he expected. But that was Warsh in 2010. Warsh in 2024 looks a bit different. He has started to publicly echo Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, supporting lower interest rates and questioning the sacred status of "Federal Reserve independence." This makes him an ideal candidate in Trump's eyes: someone with a hawkish record but willing to cooperate with the policy agenda. The market choice only saw the "hawkish record". So gold collapsed. The logic chain is: Warsh = more hawkish = fewer rate cuts = stronger dollar = gold under pressure. This logic is self-consistent in the short term.
S19 is dead, S21 is struggling: The miner shutdown wave is rewriting the underlying game of Bitcoin. On F2Pool's data table, a row of red...... Antminer S19. S19j. S19 Pro. Avalon A13. Whatsminer M30. Shutdown prices all between $90,000-$100,000. Current price $75,648. These machines are already losing money mining. Even scarier is the next row: S21 series. Shutdown price $69,000-$74,000. There is less than a 10% buffer from the current price. Let me translate what this means: If Bitcoin drops another 10%, the new generation of main mining machines will also enter the loss zone. At that time, only the S21 XP Hyd (shutdown price $40,000-$50,000) and S23 Hyd (shutdown price $32,200) will still be profitable. And how much do these most efficient machines account for in the total network computing power? Less than 20%. Bitmain's response is very honest: crazy price cuts. The price of S19 Hydro has dropped from its peak of $90/TH in 2021 to $3/TH. S21 immersion is about $7/TH. S21+ Hydro is about $8/TH. This is not a promotion; it is a clearance. This is a desperate "please take my inventory, or it will turn into scrap metal." The leaked factory price list confirms this: this is not a discount on individual products; it is a reassessment of the entire product line's value.