Boy Lost In Thoughts

The Bank of England’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Report reveals that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted narrowly (5–4) to keep interest rates at 3.75%, with four members pushing for a cut to 3.5%. While inflation remains above the 2% target, it is expected to fall back to around target levels from April 2026, largely due to lower energy prices—including measures from Budget 2025—and easing wage and services inflation.
The report indicates that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive, with Bank Rate already reduced by 150 basis points since August 2024. Further cuts are likely, though the timing will depend on incoming data. The MPC emphasizes balancing risks: ensuring inflation returns sustainably to 2% without over-tightening and causing unnecessary economic weakness.
Major Points :
Interest Rate Decision:Bank Rate held at 3.75%, but the vote was tight (5–4).Four members voted for an immediate 0.25% cut.Inflation Outlook:CPI inflation was 3.4% in December 2025.Expected to fall to around 2% from April 2026, helped by falling energy prices and Budget 2025 measures.Core inflation pressures are easing, with pay growth and services inflation moderating.Monetary Policy Stance:Policy is still restrictive but becoming less so.Further rate cuts are likely, but the MPC will proceed cautiously, monitoring data closely.Key Judgements:Risk of persistent inflation is fading, but risks from weaker demand and a loosening labor market remain.Wage growth is cooling but remains above levels consistent with 2% inflation in the medium term.Economic Activity:GDP growth remains subdued.Labor market is loosening, with unemployment expected to rise slightly.Household saving is still high, suggesting cautious consumer spending.Global and Financial Conditions:Global growth has been resilient.Financial conditions have eased slightly since November 2025.Forecast Summary:Inflation expected to be around 2% in 2026–2029.GDP growth to pick up modestly.Unemployment to peak near 5.3% in late 2026 before declining.Risks Highlighted:Inflation expectations remain elevated but should fall with headline inflation.Uncertainty around wage-setting behavior and productivity growth.Possible weaker-than-expected consumption and labor demand.Boxes & Analysis:Box A: Estimates “target-consistent” wage growth at around 3¼%.Box B: Little evidence of structural change in wage-setting behavior among UK firms.Box C: Productivity growth expected to remain subdued but with upside potential from AI.Box D: Budget 2025 measures to lower inflation in the near term.Box E: Monetary policy transmission indicators show past tightening still weighing on activity.Box F: Forecast errors reviewed; Bank’s forecasts perform comparably to external benchmarks.
Key Takeaway:
The Bank of England is in a cautious easing cycle, with inflation approaching target and the economy showing signs of subdued growth. Further interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but the MPC remains data-dependent, balancing the risks of lingering inflation against those of excessive economic slack.
$SUI
$PEPE
$ADA

In a closely divided 5-4 vote, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee chose to hold the key interest rate steady at 3.75%. While acknowledging that inflation is expected to fall to the 2% target from April—primarily due to falling energy prices—the majority opted for caution, wanting more assurance that underlying wage and price pressures would sustainably subside. However, the Committee clearly signaled that further rate cuts are likely in the near future, noting that the risk of persistent high inflation has receded while risks from weaker economic demand are growing. The decision highlights a delicate balancing act: pausing to confirm inflation is truly defeated while preparing to ease policy to support a sluggish economy.

Key Points :
Hold: The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%.Reason: The decision comes as inflation remains above the 2% target (currently 3.4%), though the economy shows signs of recovery.Divided Vote: The decision was tight, with the rate-setting committee voting 5-4 (the minority wanted a cut).Future Outlook: The Bank signaled that rate cuts are likely later this year, forecasting inflation will fall to target "by the spring."Context: This follows a long cycle of steady rate reductions. The government is banking on falling inflation to pave the way for cheaper borrowing to boost growth.Balancing Act: The Bank is trying to tame inflation without unnecessarily stifling economic growth.
$ZAMA

Bitcoin’s decline accelerated, pulling its price down to around $71,000 despite entering oversold territory. The cryptocurrency has now fallen back to a zone that acted as strong resistance throughout much of 2024, attracting some bargain hunters. Although technical indicators suggest the sell-off is extreme, fears of continued losses remain — especially with nearly half of all Bitcoin holdings currently underwater. Some analysts caution that a drop toward $60,000 is possible if historical bear market patterns repeat, though increased institutional involvement may help cushion further falls.

Key Points:
Bitcoin’s sell-off deepened, dropping toward $70K before settling near $71K, erasing gains and revisiting a key resistance area from early 2024.The daily RSI hit 22 — its most oversold level since August 2023 — signaling extreme selling pressure.The total crypto market cap fell over 5% to $2.42 trillion, reaching levels last seen in April 2025, with institutional sell-offs possibly worsening declines.Data shows 44% of Bitcoin supply is now at an unrealized loss, with only 56% of coins still in profit.Analysts warn that if the 2022 bear market repeats, Bitcoin could fall another 20% toward $60K.However, some experts believe a collapse like 2018 or 2022 is unlikely due to institutional adoption, regulated products, and expected rate cuts.In other crypto news: Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin called for a new L2 model, and Standard Chartered lowered Solana’s 2026 target but sees long-term growth potential.
$BTC
$ETH

XRP has tumbled sharply, dragged down by a broader sell-off in technology stocks. The token fell over 5% to approximately $1.43, marking its lowest price in four months. This decline mirrors a significant drop in major tech indices like the Nasdaq, as investor sentiment soured over rising AI spending concerns.

Key Points & On-Chain Analysis:
Widespread Losses: A large portion of XRP's supply is now held at a loss, with holder stress reaching levels last seen in October 2024.Macro Pressure: Unlike the 2024 rally driven by political catalysts, the current downturn is fueled by a hostile macroeconomic climate where crypto is trading in tandem with declining tech stocks.Critical Price Zone: XRP is trading near a key on-chain metric, the "realized price" (~$1.47). Historically, falling below this level has signaled deeper price corrections, with a potential downside target near $1.15.A Glimmer of Hope: Despite the sell-off, long-term holders are accumulating more XRP, a pattern that has previously preceded market stabilization.Technical Outlook:Short-Term: Bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggests a potential relief rebound toward $1.57 or higher.Long-Term: The weekly chart shows XRP testing a major support confluence near $1.40-$1.43. Holding this zone is critical. A breakdown could trigger a steeper fall toward $1.13 or even $0.93.
$XRP

December Manufacturing Orders Skyrocket
Provisional data for December 2025 shows a powerful, broad-based rebound in manufacturing demand, though a significant portion is concentrated in large-scale projects.
Headline Surge: New orders jumped +7.8% from November 2025 (seasonally adjusted).Underlying Trend: Excluding volatile large-scale orders, growth was a more modest +0.9%, indicating the headline figure was boosted by major contracts.Strong Quarterly Performance: Orders in Q4 2025 were 9.5% higher than in Q3 2025 (or +2.5% excluding large-scale orders).Sector Highlights:Major Gains: Fabricated metal products (+30.2%) and machinery & equipment (+11.5%) were the primary drivers, with large orders across these sectors.Solid Growth: Electrical equipment (+9.8%) and computer/electronic products (+5.7%) also contributed positively.Declines: Orders fell in the automotive industry (-6.3%) and other transport equipment (-18.7%), despite some large orders in the latter.Geographic Split: Domestic orders soared +10.7%, while foreign orders grew +5.6% (driven by a +9.7% increase from non-euro area countries).Contrast with Turnover: Despite the order boom, actual turnover (sales) in December fell 1.4% month-on-month, highlighting a potential divergence between future demand and current activity.
Previous Month Revised Upward: November 2025 growth was revised up to +5.7% (from +5.6%).
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

On February 5, 2026, Japan’s Ministry of Finance concluded a significant auction for 30-Year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The results offer a detailed snapshot of current investor sentiment and long-term borrowing costs for the Japanese government.
Auction at a Glance
Bond Issued: 30-Year JGB (Issue Number 89)Key Date: Auctioned February 5, 2026; Issued February 6, 2026; Matures December 20, 2055.Nominal Coupon Rate: 3.4% (fixed interest paid to bondholders).Amount Raised: ¥525.0 billion accepted from competitive bids.Primary Yield: 3.623% (yield at the lowest accepted price).Investor Demand: Total bids amounted to ¥1,908.5 billion, indicating strong market interest.
Detailed Breakdown of the Auction Results
The table below summarizes the key financial metrics from the auction.
⚖️ Pricing and Yields (Key Results)
Lowest Accepted Price: ¥96.80 (per ¥100 of face value)Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price: 3.623% (This is the highest yield, or government borrowing cost, accepted in the auction)Weighted Average Price: ¥96.91Yield at the Weighted Average Price: 3.615% (This represents the average yield/borrowing cost across all accepted bids)Allotment for Bids at Lowest Price: 75.7858% of bids submitted at the lowest accepted price (¥96.80) were granted.
📈 Key Takeaway
The successful auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.64, demonstrates solid investor demand for long-term Japanese government debt. The effective yield for the government settled around 3.62%.Interpreting the Market Signals
A bid-to-cover ratio of 3.64 is a strong indicator of healthy demand. It shows investors were willing to commit nearly 3.6 times the amount of debt finally sold. This robust appetite allowed the Ministry of Finance to sell the bonds at a favorable price, very close to their face value.
The yield of approximately 3.62% is a critical figure. It represents the Japanese government's effective long-term borrowing cost for this 30-year period and serves as a key benchmark for other long-term interest rates in the economy.
Market Context and Implications
This auction was closely watched as Japan continues to navigate its monetary policy. The solid demand, evidenced by the high bid-to-cover ratio, suggests investor confidence in Japan's long-term creditworthiness. The yield near 3.62% will be used by analysts to assess the market's long-term inflation and growth expectations.
Successful long-term bond auctions like this one are essential for funding government initiatives and provide stability to Japan's extensive financial markets. The result indicates a smooth absorption of new debt, which is a positive sign for financial market stability.
$ZAMA
$SENT
$RLUSD

On February 4, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board announced it has finalized the hypothetical scenarios for its upcoming annual stress test, designed to evaluate the resilience of major banks under severe economic conditions. The test will simulate a deep global recession featuring a 10% unemployment rate, plunging real estate prices, and corporate debt market stress.
Additionally, the Board decided to maintain existing capital buffer requirements until 2027, allowing for public input and model improvements. The move aims to enhance the reliability and fairness of supervisory models while ensuring large banks can continue supporting households and businesses during financial stress.
Key Points :
The Federal Reserve has finalized its annual stress test scenarios for 2026, which will assess how 32 large banks would withstand a severe global recession.The scenarios project a sharp rise in unemployment (up to 10%), significant declines in real estate (30% home price drop, 39% commercial real estate drop), and severe market volatility.Banks with large trading or custodial operations will also face additional shock tests, including a global market shock and a counterparty default scenario.The Fed voted to keep current stress capital buffer requirements unchanged until 2027, allowing time to incorporate public feedback and refine models.Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman emphasized that this pause will improve transparency, fairness, and accountability in the stress testing process.The stress test is not a forecast but a hypothetical exercise to ensure banks remain resilient and able to lend during economic downturns.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

After failing to break through resistance, gold (XAU/USD) is now in a consolidation phase, trading within a broad range. The market is currently pausing as buyers defend critical support levels and decide the next directional move.
Key Points:
Failed Breakout & Consolidation: Gold's rally was rejected at the $5,092 resistance level, leading to a failed breakout above the 10-day moving average. This signals a potential pause or short-term pullback.Key Support Holds: Buyers are actively defending the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A higher daily low at $4,852 and a strong bounce from the 50-DMA ($4,516) confirm underlying buyer strength and keep the intermediate bull trend intact.Range-Bound Trading: Price action is currently contained within a wide range of $4,402 to $5,598, indicating choppy conditions. Moves within this range may not follow typical patterns.Critical Resistance Ahead: The next major upside hurdles are the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $5,141 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $5,342. A rally toward these zones could reignite bullish momentum.Overall Trend Still Bullish: As long as gold holds above the 50-day moving average, the broader bullish trend remains in place despite the current consolidation.
$XAU
$XAG

In a move that has sparked international scrutiny and diplomatic ambiguity, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced this week that India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil as part of a newly struck U.S.-India trade agreement. The claim, however, stands in stark contrast to statements from Moscow and has been met with widespread skepticism from analysts who question New Delhi’s willingness to sever such a critical economic link.

The Announcement and the Denial
Trump took to his Truth Social platform on Monday to declare that a trade deal had been finalized following a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In his post, he stated the leaders discussed “ending the War with Russia and Ukraine” and that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”
As part of the agreement, Trump said the U.S. would reduce its main tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and remove an additional 25% penalty tariff imposed last summer in retaliation for India’s increased imports of discounted Russian crude.
Prime Minister Modi confirmed the trade deal on X, expressing delight that “Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.” He made no mention, however, of halting Russian oil imports.
The Kremlin was quick to respond. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “We haven’t heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet,” emphasizing Russia’s commitment to its “advanced strategic partnership” with India. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a former oil minister, downplayed the potential impact, suggesting that global demand would naturally absorb any redirected Russian supply.
A History of Strategic Hedging
India’s position as a top buyer of Russian crude solidified after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as Western sanctions created an opportunity for New Delhi to secure energy at a steep discount. This relationship exists within a complex web of geopolitical loyalties: India maintains deep historical, defense, and strategic ties with Russia while simultaneously pursuing a closer partnership with the United States.
Analysts argue that publicly committing to end Russian oil purchases is a political and strategic improbability for Modi’s government. “I have a hard time believing the government of India will make any Russian oil-related commitment explicit,” said Evan A. Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He noted that maintaining the option to buy Russian oil is a symbol of India’s foreign policy autonomy and a buffer against perceived American coercion—both resonant themes in domestic Indian politics.
Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described India’s challenge as a delicate “balancing act.” While India may continue to diversify its oil imports, it is unlikely to abruptly abandon a partner with which it has significantly deepened relations. The priority, Aamer suggests, is to navigate these two crucial relationships without jeopardizing either.
Economic Realities vs. Political Declarations
The economic incentives for India to continue purchasing Russian oil remain powerful. Moody’s Ratings agency warned that an immediate cessation could disrupt economic growth, raise manufacturing costs, and fuel inflation in one of the world’s largest oil-importing nations. A sudden shift away from Russian crude could also tighten global supply and increase prices worldwide.
Data suggests India had already begun to modestly reduce its Russian oil imports following the U.S. imposition of penalty tariffs last year. This incremental adjustment appears more plausible than a wholesale embargo. As Feigenbaum observed, publicly rebuking Russia is a “nonstarter” for a leader who “can ill afford to humiliate one of India’s most important defense partners.”
The Road Ahead
The discrepancy between Trump’s announcement and the subsequent silence from New Delhi—coupled with Moscow’s dismissal—highlights the opaque nature of high-stakes diplomacy and the art of political messaging. The U.S.-India trade deal itself represents a tangible step in mending recent trade tensions. However, the assertion regarding Russian oil seems less a definitive policy shift and more a point of leverage or aspirational framing.
For now, the world watches to see how India navigates this triangulation. The nation is poised to continue its pragmatic approach: securing economic advantages from the West while safeguarding a time-tested, strategically vital partnership with Russia. The “devil in the details,” as some analysts have put it, will ultimately reveal whether this deal signifies a fundamental realignment or simply another chapter in India’s sophisticated dance of multi-alignment.
$DUSK
$XPL
$ESPORTS

The S&P Global US Services PMI® survey for January 2026 reveals a US service sector that continues to grow, but at a pace moderated by significant economic headwinds, including tariffs and widespread uncertainty. The headline Business Activity Index rose slightly to 52.7, signaling a sustained but historically weak expansion as the sector marks exactly three years of continuous growth.
Key Survey Highlights
Sustained but Moderate Expansion: The Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 52.7 in January, up from 52.5 in December. While this indicates a third consecutive year of sector growth, the rate remains below the typical levels seen throughout 2025.Mixed Demand Signals: New business inflows saw a stronger expansion, driven by domestic wins and improved market demand. However, this was countered by the steepest reduction in foreign demand in over three years, attributed to tariffs and global trade uncertainty.Cautious Employment and Sentiment: Following a slight decline in December, employment numbers increased in January, but the rate of job creation was only marginal. Business confidence for the year ahead softened to its lowest since October 2025.Persistent Inflationary Pressures: Input cost inflation remained historically elevated, primarily due to tariffs, higher labor, and supplier costs. Although the rate of increase in selling prices moderated slightly, firms continued to pass these higher costs to clients where market competition allowed.
Analysis: A Sector Navigating Crosscurrents
The January data paints a picture of a service sector caught between positive momentum and mounting constraints. The sustained expansion, particularly when combined with a robust manufacturing output, suggests the broader economy is growing at an annualized rate of approximately 1.7%. This points to continued economic resilience but at a cooler pace than seen prior to a slowdown in late 2025.
The divergence between domestic and international demand is striking. Service providers successfully cultivated new domestic client relationships, yet this was insufficient to offset a sharp downturn in export orders. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, notes that consumer-facing companies are finding the environment particularly challenging, with demand nearly stalling.
Capacity pressures are building, as evidenced by a solid and accelerated rise in backlogs of work for the eleventh consecutive month. This typically signals the need for more robust hiring, yet employment growth remained timid. This caution appears linked to the dampened business outlook, where firms explicitly cite political and economic uncertainty as factors restraining more aggressive expansion plans.
On inflation, the report offers a nuanced view. While cost pressures are still high, there are early signs of a peak, with the rate of increase for both input costs and output charges softening since the end of 2025. Stiff competition in the marketplace is acting as a brake, limiting companies' ability to fully pass all cost increases—especially those linked to tariffs—on to consumers.
Implications and Outlook
The S&P Global US Composite PMI®, which combines manufacturing and services, rose to 53.0 in January, indicating a solid overall private sector growth rate. However, the underlying details of the services survey suggest a fragile momentum.
The sector's trajectory in the coming months will likely hinge on several factors:
The evolution of trade policies and tariff impacts on supply chains and costs.Whether domestic consumer confidence can recover from low levels.How businesses reconcile ongoing capacity pressures with a cautious approach to hiring and investment.
For policymakers and investors, the report underscores an economy in a lower, more cautious gear. While a recession is not indicated, the combination of cooling growth, elevated inflation, and soft forward-looking sentiment suggests that the service sector's expansion, though unbroken, faces significant tests ahead.
$DOGE
$BNB
$BTC

TEMPE, Ariz. – February 4, 2026 – The U.S. services sector kicked off 2026 on a stable footing, with economic activity expanding for the 19th consecutive month, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services PMI® Report released today.
The Services PMI® registered 53.8% in January, unchanged from December’s revised figure. A reading above 50% indicates expansion. The consistent performance suggests underlying strength in the sector that comprises the bulk of the American economy, even as signals of persistent inflationary pressures and evolving challenges emerge.
"The Services PMI® indicates the overall economy is expanding for the 68th straight month," said Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the ISM® Services Business Survey Committee. "January’s reading corresponds to a 1.8-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."
Key Index Analysis: A Mixed Picture
The headline number’s stability masks notable moves in the subindexes that paint a nuanced picture of the services landscape:
Business Activity Surges: The Business Activity Index jumped 2.2 percentage points to 57.4%, its highest level since October 2024. This points to a significant acceleration in current output and workloads.New Orders Moderate: The New Orders Index, a forward-looking gauge, remained in growth territory but cooled to 53.1%, down 3.4 points from December. This suggests demand growth may be slowing from a robust year-end pace.Employment Growth Cools Slightly: The Employment Index expanded for the second month in a row but dipped 1.4 points to 50.3%, indicating a modest pace of hiring.Supply Chain Pressures Intensify: The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 54.2%, signaling slower delivery performance for the 14th straight month. This points to renewed congestion or capacity constraints in supply networks.Inflationary Pressures Reaccelerate: The Prices Index climbed to 66.6%, marking 104 consecutive months of increase and its highest reading in three months. It has now exceeded 60% for 14 straight months, underscoring persistent cost pressures.Inventories and Backlogs Contract: The Inventories Index fell sharply into contraction at 45.1%, while the Backlog of Orders Index remained in contraction for the 11th month (44%). This could indicate that firms are meeting demand from stockpiles or that order books are thinning.
Sector Performance and Respondent Commentary
Growth was broad-based, with 11 of 16 services industries reporting expansion in January, led by Health Care & Social Assistance and Utilities. Five industries reported contraction, including Transportation & Warehousing and Wholesale Trade.
Comments from purchasing executives reveal key themes shaping business decisions:
AI and Data Center Boom: The construction and technology demand fueled by artificial intelligence is a dominant theme. A Construction executive noted a "pending surge" in data center and power projects, expecting "significant business growth in 2026." A Utilities respondent echoed this, stating, "Data centers are causing large spikes in requirements."Policy Uncertainty: Tariffs and geopolitical tensions are weighing on planning. An Accommodation & Food Services manager said, "The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies continues to affect our purchasing."Cost Management: The proliferation of AI is also affecting service procurement strategies, with a focus on extracting more value from contracts and managing risk.Consumer Resilience: Despite concerns, a Retail Trade executive reported, "Solid holiday performance... January is even better. Consumers are still buying discretionary goods."
Concerns: The Inflation Puzzle
The reacceleration of the Prices Index is a clear concern. Miller highlighted that the index is now above its 12-month average. While commodities like gasoline and diesel fuel saw price decreases (for the 11th and 2nd consecutive months, respectively), costs increased for labor, copper, lumber, and pharmaceuticals.
"The highest Business Activity and Supplier Deliveries index readings since October 2024... indicate higher business activity levels and slower supplier deliveries," Miller stated. "Whether pricing increases will stick or expand needs to be closely watched."
Services vs. Manufacturing: A Divergence?
In a notable contrast, the services sector's steady expansion diverges from the story in manufacturing. The sister ISM® Manufacturing PMI® for January, released earlier this week, showed a dramatic 4.7-point surge to 52.6%, catapulting it from contraction into expansion. This suggests the industrial side of the economy may be catching up to services-led growth, potentially signaling a more synchronized economic expansion.
Looking Ahead
The January report depicts a services sector that is expanding at a solid, steady pace, buoyed by strong business activity. However, moderating new order growth, shrinking backlogs, and—most critically—intensifying price pressures present a complex environment for the coming months. The combination of robust demand, supply chain slowing, and persistent inflation will test the resilience of the expansion as 2026 unfolds.
The next ISM® Services PMI® Report for February will be released on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
About ISM®: Institute for Supply Management® is the world's first and leading non-profit professional supply management organization. Its PMI® reports are among the most trusted economic indicators globally.
$SUI
$FIL
$ZIL