The Cryptonomist

Price is compressing a trend as BNB trades in a neutral daily structure while short-term charts lean bullish and prepare for a potential breakout or deeper pullback.

BNB/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily (D1): Neutral Bias, Sitting on the Fence

On the daily timeframe, BNB is in a neutral regime. Price closed at 887.3, essentially flat with the daily pivot at 887.07. This is a balance point, not a trending structure.

EMAs (Trend Structure – D1)

• 20‑day EMA: 896.06
• 50‑day EMA: 898.32
• 200‑day EMA: 882.05
• Price (close): 887.3

The 20 and 50 EMAs are slightly above current price, while the 200‑day EMA is just below it. That puts BNB in a mild squeeze between short and medium-term averages overhead and longer-term support underneath. Short-term trend is leaning soft-bearish, but the longer-term structure is intact as long as price holds above the 200‑day. In plain terms, this is a pullback resting on long-term support, not a confirmed downtrend.

RSI (Momentum – D1)

• RSI 14‑day: 47.13

RSI is slightly below the midline but far from oversold. Momentum is neither strongly bullish nor strongly bearish, and it reflects a market catching its breath. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is more of a consolidation than a capitulation.

MACD (Trend Momentum – D1)

• MACD line: -2.48
• Signal line: 3.42
• Histogram: -5.9

MACD is negative with a clearly negative histogram, showing bears have had the upper hand recently. However, these values are modest, not the kind of wide separation you see in a strong trend. It confirms that the daily chart has lost upside momentum, but the market is not in an aggressive sell phase yet, more like a controlled drift lower into support.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Position – D1)

• Middle band: 906.95
• Upper band: 956.73
• Lower band: 857.18
• Price: 887.3

Price is trading below the middle band but still comfortably above the lower band. That places BNB in the lower half of its recent volatility range without signs of a volatility spike or an extreme band touch. It is a classic consolidation zone where the next move could be either a mean reversion back to the mid-band around 907 or a continuation lower toward the 857 area if support gives way.

ATR (Volatility – D1)

• ATR 14‑day: 24.35

Daily ATR around 24 points signals moderate volatility: enough to make swings meaningful, but not in panic mode. This size of movement means that breaks of key levels by 1–1.5× ATR start to matter. Anything smaller can easily be noise inside the current range.

Daily Pivot Levels (Structure – D1)

• Pivot (PP): 887.07
• Resistance 1 (R1): 897.95
• Support 1 (S1): 876.43

Price is glued to the pivot, with R1 and S1 framing a tight, roughly 22‑point daily range. That is a market in balance: buyers and sellers are testing each other right at fair value. A daily close above R1 would start to shift the bias back to bullish mean reversion, while a break and hold below S1 would confirm that the pullback is evolving into a more serious downswing.

Daily conclusion: the main scenario on D1 is neutral, tilted slightly bearish in momentum but anchored by the 200‑day EMA. The market is waiting for a catalyst.

1‑Hour (H1): Short-Term Bullish, But Under a Bigger Cap

The 1‑hour chart shows a neutral regime label but the structure is short-term bullish. Price is above the 20 and 50 EMAs, with momentum turning up, yet still under the 200 EMA which acts as a cap.

EMAs (Trend Structure – H1)

• 20‑EMA: 882.71
• 50‑EMA: 880.16
• 200‑EMA: 891.39
• Price: 887.45

On H1, price is above the 20 and 50 EMAs but still below the 200‑EMA. That is a local intraday up-leg inside a broader capped structure. Bulls have control in the very short term, but the 891–892 zone, where the 200‑EMA sits, is the first serious ceiling. Until that breaks, this is a rally inside a neutral or pullback context, not a full trend reversal.

RSI (Momentum – H1)

• RSI 14‑hour: 58.02

RSI just under 60 shows healthy, but not overheated, intraday buying pressure. Momentum is on the bulls side for now, but there is still room before intraday conditions become stretched.

MACD (Trend Momentum – H1)

• MACD line: 2.81
• Signal line: 2.23
• Histogram: 0.58

MACD is positive and the histogram is slightly above zero. That lines up with the price trading above the short EMAs: buyers are pushing upward, albeit with modest strength. This is consistent with a controlled grind higher, not an impulsive breakout yet.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Position – H1)

• Middle band: 883.01
• Upper band: 890.82
• Lower band: 875.19
• Price: 887.45

Price is trading between the middle and upper band, slightly in the upper half of the hourly range. That is what you want to see in a mild uptrend: buyers pressing toward the top of the volatility envelope without blowing it out. It supports the idea of short-term bullish pressure aiming into the 890–892 area.

ATR (Volatility – H1)

• ATR 14‑hour: 4.55

Hourly ATR near 4.5 points is modest but tradable. On this timeframe, small moves of 3–5 points are standard noise, and only pushes beyond that, especially past structural levels, start to look meaningful.

Hourly Pivot Levels (Structure – H1)

• Pivot (PP): 890.61
• Resistance 1 (R1): 894.56
• Support 1 (S1): 883.51

Current price at 887.45 is below the hourly pivot at 890.61, despite the short EMAs pointing up. That tells you the intraday bounce is still in recovery mode. Bulls have work to do reclaiming the pivot before they can seriously challenge higher resistance. If price can hold above 883–884 and push through 891–895, the intraday tone turns clearly bullish.

15‑Minute (M15): Bullish Execution Context

The 15‑minute chart is firmly in a bullish regime, and this is where timing comes into play for active traders.

EMAs (Micro Trend – M15)

• 20‑EMA: 886.91
• 50‑EMA: 884.03
• 200‑EMA: 879.97
• Price: 887.25

Price is above all three EMAs, with a clean bullish stack where the 20‑EMA is above the 50‑EMA and the 50‑EMA is above the 200‑EMA. That reflects a short-term uptrend where dip-buyers are likely to show up near the 20‑ and 50‑EMA on pullbacks, at least until this micro structure breaks.

RSI (Momentum – M15)

• RSI 14‑min: 52.48

RSI is almost perfectly neutral around 50 despite the bullish regime, meaning the short-term uptrend is not yet overextended. Intraday traders have room on both sides: the market can continue grinding higher or briefly mean-revert without flashing extreme conditions.

MACD (Trend Momentum – M15)

• MACD line: 2.73
• Signal line: 1.98
• Histogram: 0.74

MACD is positive with a healthy, but not explosive, histogram. Short-term buyers have the initiative, and momentum aligns with the EMA stack. For execution, this typically favors buying dips rather than chasing spikes, as the trend is up but not vertical.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Position – M15)

• Middle band: 885.45
• Upper band: 895.66
• Lower band: 875.24
• Price: 887.25

Price is just above the middle band, in the upper half of the 15‑minute range but nowhere near the upper band. This points to a controlled grind higher, not a blow-off move. Small dips toward the mid-band have been getting bought so far.

ATR (Volatility – M15)

• ATR 14‑min: 3.73

ATR around 3.7 on M15 indicates that a typical 15‑minute bar covers a fair chunk of the days ATR. This underlines that intraday swings can be sharp relative to the daily move, so position sizing and stops need to account for that noise.

15‑Minute Pivot Levels (Execution Zones – M15)

• Pivot (PP): 888.8
• Resistance 1 (R1): 890.92
• Support 1 (S1): 885.12

Price is trading slightly below the 15‑minute pivot, but the regime remains bullish. That combination often means a constructive pullback inside an intraday uptrend. S1 near 885 and the rising 50‑EMA form an immediate support pocket. R1 at 890.92 aligns closely with the hourly resistance band and 200‑EMA, turning the 890–892 zone into a key intraday decision level.

Market Context & Sentiment

Broad crypto market cap is modestly up, around 0.16% on the day, with a notable drop in 24h volume of about -24.4%. BTC dominance above 57% shows flows are concentrated in majors, not high-beta altcoins. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed index at 29 (Fear) indicates investors are still defensive, not euphoric.

For BNBUSDT, this backdrop usually means limited speculative excess. Moves tend to be cleaner but less explosive unless a strong catalyst appears. DeFi fee trends show mixed activity, with PancakeSwap AMM fees sharply higher over 30 days, hinting that some on-chain activity is returning, but not yet in a sustained risk-on wave.

Scenarios

Primary Bias: Neutral on Daily, Bullish Intraday

The higher timeframe on D1 calls for a neutral main scenario, with price trapped between short-term bearish momentum and long-term support. Intraday, however, both the 1‑hour and 15‑minute charts show constructive bullish structure pushing price back toward resistance.

Bullish Scenario

In the bullish path, the intraday up-move continues, and BNBUSDT reclaims and holds above the cluster of resistance around 890–895:

• 15m R1 at 890.92 gets cleared and holds as support.
• H1 pivot at 890.61 and H1 R1 at 894.56 are broken and retested from above.
• Price regains the H1 200‑EMA near 891.39 and starts closing hourly candles above it.

If this plays out, the next logical magnet is the daily Bollinger mid-band around 907, with room toward the upper band near 957 if volatility expands. On the way, the daily 20 and 50 EMAs between 896–898 turn from overhead resistance into support. RSI on D1 would need to push back above 50 and the MACD histogram to shrink toward zero, showing that downside momentum has faded.

This bullish scenario is invalidated if BNBUSDT fails repeatedly at the 890–895 zone and breaks back below 876–880 with strong volume, especially if daily closes start forming under the 200‑day EMA around 882. That would confirm the intraday strength was just a dead-cat bounce.

Bearish Scenario

In the bearish outcome, the intraday bounce runs out of steam under the 200‑EMA on H1, and sellers press price through local support:

• M15 support at 885.12 and the 50‑EMA give way.
• H1 S1 at 883.51 fails, leading to a test of the daily S1 at 876.43.
• Daily closes start printing below the 200‑day EMA around 882.

Under this pressure, daily MACD would likely extend deeper into negative territory, and RSI could slide decisively below 45, indicating momentum is moving from neutral to outright bearish. Technically, that opens a path toward the lower Bollinger Band around 857, and potentially lower if broader market risk-off accelerates.

This bearish scenario is invalidated if price quickly reclaims and holds above the 890–895 resistance zone, flips the 200‑EMA on H1 into support, and daily RSI recovers back above 50. In that case, the selling pressure would be better read as a completed pullback rather than the start of a larger downtrend.

How to Think About Positioning Now

BNBUSDT currently sits in a tactical tug-of-war. The daily chart is sideways and indecisive, while intraday structure favors the bulls but right into a dense cluster of resistance around 890–895. That makes this region a genuine decision zone rather than a place to form strong directional convictions without confirmation.

For short-term traders, the key is respecting the multi-timeframe tension. The 15‑minute and 1‑hour charts suggest buying dips as long as price stays above roughly 883–885, but the daily chart insists that until the market clears the 896–900 area, this is still just a rally inside a broader consolidation. For swing traders, the higher-probability entries usually come after the market shows whether the 200‑day EMA at 882 holds or fails decisively.

Volatility is moderate on all timeframes, which means breakouts can be tradable but are less forgiving if they turn into fakeouts. With market sentiment in Fear and BTC dominance high, the environment still rewards risk control and flexibility over aggressive, one-sided bets.

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All market views expressed here are informational and educational in nature. They reflect a technical interpretation of current data and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always consider your own risk tolerance and time horizon.

After weeks of political tension, lawmakers in Washington are pushing ahead with the clarity act as expectations rise across the digital asset industry.

Marshall withdraws contested credit card amendment

The Clarity Act, designed to regulate and further legitimize digital assets, moved a step closer to passage after Senator Roger Marshall withdrew a controversial amendment tied to credit card swipe fees, according to Politico. The provision would have forced major card networks to face tougher competition on transaction fees.

Last week, Marshall filed the amendment on credit card fees, but over the weekend he reportedly agreed to abandon the measure, Politico said, citing anonymous sources. Moreover, other Republicans in the Senate were prepared to oppose the swipe fee change, which could have stalled the broader crypto bill.

Bipartisan bill aims to cement digital assets in US finance

Marshall’s retreat follows weeks of uncertainty around the legislation. The Clarity Act has drawn bipartisan backing and is seen as a formal endorsement of blockchain-based assets by Congress and President Donald Trump‘s administration. It seeks to integrate blockchain financial integration into the existing financial system by providing clearer rules for tokens and related technologies.

The legislation was initially expected to pass easily. However, it ran into turbulence earlier this month when Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, one of the crypto sector’s most visible leaders, abruptly withdrew his support. He objected to the bill’s ban on customers earning yield on stablecoins, a core feature for many exchanges and fintech platforms.

That said, this coinbase bill opposition triggered public disputes between Armstrong and several other crypto executives who continue to back the measure. The clash highlighted divisions within an industry that has often tried to present a united front in Washington.

Crypto markets under pressure despite policy wins

The infighting over the bill comes during a difficult stretch for the crypto market. Over the past few months, major cryptocurrencies have suffered sharp declines. Bitcoin (BTC) is down roughly 31% since its all-time high in October, while Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have fallen about 40% and 50%, respectively, from their peaks last year.

This downturn has unfolded despite the Trump administration’s more supportive posture toward the sector. In July, Trump signed the Genius Act, which established a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Moreover, in the months that followed, cryptocurrencies surged to record levels before starting a steep slide in October, from which they still have not recovered.

Senate Agriculture Committee prepares key vote

Against this backdrop, the next procedural step for the Clarity Act is crucial. The Senate Agriculture Committee is expected to vote on the bill on Thursday morning, according to the current schedule. This committee has jurisdiction over certain commodities and derivatives issues that intersect with crypto regulation.

However, questions remain about how quickly the broader Senate will act if the committee approves the measure. Some lawmakers may still push for adjustments, especially on stablecoin yield rules and consumer protections. Even so, the upcoming vote offers a rare glimmer of optimism for an industry that has endured a tough season.

If the committee advances the bill, supporters hope it will signal that Washington is ready to provide long-awaited regulatory clarity, potentially laying the groundwork for a more mature and stable market structure for digital assets.

Investors rushed to reassess avax one shares after a surprise insider registration filing raised fresh concerns over future selling pressure.

AVAX One stock sinks on insider registration move

AVAX One, a digital asset treasury firm advised by SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, saw its stock drop more than 32% on Tuesday. The slide followed a filing to register nearly 74 million insider-held shares for potential sale on the public market.

The company, which holds AVAX tokens and other Avalanche ecosystem assets, disclosed the move late on Tuesday, Jan 27, 2026. However, the filing did not specify if or when any of these shares would actually be sold, leaving traders guessing about the timing.

Registering insider stock with the SEC does not itself increase the share count, but it often signals that previously restricted equity may soon become freely tradable. That said, the uncertainty alone can weigh heavily on thinly traded names.

Market reaction and share dilution concerns

The sharp price decline reflects mounting share dilution concerns among investors. By making insider holdings eligible for resale, AVAX One effectively opened the door for a large block of stock to hit the market, even if no sales are imminent.

Moreover, such moves are watched closely in the crypto-equity space, where liquidity is often limited and order books are shallow. In those conditions, even the prospect of major selling can push prices down quickly as traders try to front-run potential supply.

For some shareholders, the scale of the insider share registration — roughly 74 million shares — raised questions about long-term confidence from early backers. However, others noted that registration can also be a routine step for maturing companies transitioning restricted stock into freely tradable float.

Pressure on crypto public firms and NAV discounts

The reaction to the filing underlines broader pressures on crypto public firms whose equity trades at steep discounts to the value of their underlying avalanche token holdings and other digital assets. In AVAX One’s case, the market is increasingly focused on the gap between share price and net asset value.

That said, management has been trying to address this disconnect. The company recently announced a stock buyback plan authorizing the purchase of up to $40 million of its own stock if the net asset value of its portfolio falls below its market capitalization.

Buybacks have become a common tactic among digital asset treasuries seeking to support trading prices and signal confidence. AVAX One shares have therefore been closely watched as a case study in whether such programs can close NAV discounts in volatile crypto-linked equities.

AVAX One’s strategy in context

AVAX One’s approach mirrors that of peers such as BitMine and KindlyMD, which have also leaned on buybacks as their token-heavy balance sheets trade at sizable discounts in public markets. Moreover, these firms are navigating a landscape where equity investors often remain skeptical of crypto exposure.

The combination of a large insider registration and an active repurchase authorization presents a mixed signal for the market. On one hand, the registration suggests potential selling by early holders; on the other, the buyback could absorb some of that supply if executed aggressively.

In the middle of this debate, analysts note that the performance of avax one shares will likely depend on how quickly any registered stock is sold, the pace of buybacks, and the trajectory of the broader Avalanche ecosystem.

Outlook for investors

For now, traders are watching whether AVAX One provides further guidance on insider-selling intentions or adjusts its buyback tempo in response to market volatility. Moreover, any sharp move in the price of AVAX or related Avalanche assets could rapidly change perceptions of balance-sheet strength.

Ultimately, the episode underscores how sensitive crypto-linked equities remain to capital-structure decisions. AVAX One’s experience shows that, in this sector, even routine filing steps can trigger outsized reactions when investors fear future dilution.

Investor interest in core crypto infrastructure is rising, with Mesh payments emerging as a key player in the shift toward real-world blockchain-based transactions.

Series C round propels Mesh to unicorn status

Mesh, a fast-growing crypto payments network, has raised $75 million in a Series C funding round that values the company at $1 billion and pushes its total financing above $200 million. The latest capital injection underscores how investors are increasingly backing infrastructure rather than speculative token launches.

The round was led by Dragonfly Capital, with participation from Paradigm, Moderne Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, SBI Investment and Liberty City Ventures. Moreover, the mix of crypto-native funds and traditional venture capital firms highlights growing confidence in payment-focused blockchain startups.

Mesh said the financing will help it scale what it describes as a unified network designed to connect a fragmented global payments landscape and reduce reliance on traditional settlement rails. However, the company also argues that meaningful adoption will depend on making digital assets behave more like everyday money for both consumers and merchants.

Building a borderless payments layer

Mesh positions its technology as a form of borderless payments infrastructure, tackling the inefficiencies of legacy payment systems such as slow settlement and high fees. It aims to enable crypto-native payments across multiple chains and assets while hiding much of the underlying complexity from end users.

Co-founder and CEO Bam Azizi describes the crypto ecosystem as “crowded by design,” with constant new tokens and protocols adding friction. That said, Mesh is betting that the real opportunity lies in interoperability rather than launching yet another asset.

Against this backdrop, the company wants mesh payments to act as the connective layer that lets wallets, blockchains and digital assets function as one coordinated system. Moreover, Mesh maintains that future winners will be those capable of stitching together disparate networks into a seamless user experience.

Expanding across global markets

The Series C capital will also fuel Mesh’s international expansion, particularly in Latin America, Asia and Europe, while supporting continued product development. These regions are seen as key growth markets due to high mobile adoption, volatile local currencies and large cross-border payment flows.

Mesh said its network already reaches more than 900 million users worldwide through integrations with existing platforms and partners. Moreover, the company has previously expanded into India, citing the country’s young digital population and more than $125 billion in annual remittances as a major opportunity for more efficient transfers.

In addition, Mesh has announced support for Ripple USD and rolled out partnerships with Paxos and Rain, reflecting a broader strategy to deepen its role in stablecoin based payments. However, these moves also highlight the complexity of connecting multiple issuers, chains and regulatory regimes under one network.

Addressing stablecoin fragmentation with SmartFunding

Mesh is also targeting what it calls the “stablecoin paradox” – the rapid growth of dollar-pegged tokens alongside increasing fragmentation across platforms and chains. In 2025, stablecoins collectively reached a $300 billion market capitalization and processed more than $27 trillion in annual transaction volume, yet liquidity remains siloed in disconnected ecosystems.

To bridge these gaps, Mesh has developed its SmartFunding technology, which is designed to enable an “any-to-any” experience for users and merchants. Moreover, the system allows consumers to pay with assets such as Bitcoin or Solana while merchants receive instant settlement in stablecoins like USDC or PYUSD, or even in traditional fiat currencies.

Importantly, part of the Series C round itself was settled using stablecoins, signaling growing institutional comfort with blockchain-native payment rails. However, Mesh still needs to prove that its model can scale, maintain regulatory compliance and handle the operational demands of global commerce while preserving the efficiency gains it promises.

Overall, the new funding gives Mesh the resources to expand its network, refine SmartFunding and deepen its role in connecting fragmented digital asset ecosystems, as institutions and users look for more reliable ways to move value across chains, regions and currencies.

New survey data reveals how merchants crypto adoption is moving from niche experiment to mainstream commerce across the United States.

Customer demand pushes merchants toward cryto adoption

New research from the National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) and PayPal shows that nearly 4 in 10 U.S. merchants are already integrating crypto at checkout. According to the study, 39% of businesses now accept cryptocurrency as a payment option, reflecting a clear response to evolving customer preferences.

Moreover, expectations for the next few years are even stronger. More than four in five merchants, or 84%, believe crypto payments will become a common feature of commerce within the next five years. This signals a structural shift in how businesses think about payments, demand, and digital customer journeys.

Customer interest is the primary catalyst behind this shift. Nearly nine in ten merchants, or 88%, report receiving inquiries from shoppers about paying with crypto. Furthermore, more than two-thirds, or 69%, say customers want to use digital assets at least once a month, giving merchants a clear signal that the demand is recurring, not occasional.

For many companies, crypto is not just an add-on. Four in five merchants, or 79%, agree that accepting crypto can help them attract new customers, positioning it as both a payment method and a growth driver. However, the study notes that for businesses already taking crypto at checkout, this demand has become highly tangible in day-to-day operations.

From experimentation to everyday crypto payments

Commenting on the findings, May Zabaneh, Vice President and General Manager of Crypto at PayPal, said the data confirms a turning point. She noted that crypto payments are now moving beyond early experimentation and entering the realm of everyday commerce, in line with how consumers already pay online.

According to Zabaneh, adoption is being fueled by customer demand for faster and more flexible payment options. Once businesses start offering digital asset payments, many see clear benefits. Moreover, when crypto is presented in ways that feel as familiar as card or standard online payments, it becomes a powerful growth tool, helping merchants reach new customers and access funds faster.

Which merchants are leading crypto payment adoption?

The survey reveals that digital asset acceptance is no longer confined to early adopters or niche brands. Adoption is strongest among large enterprises generating more than $500 million in annual revenue, where 50% already accept crypto. By contrast, 34% of small businesses and 32% of midsize companies currently accept crypto at checkout.

However, where merchants do support digital assets, the impact on sales is significant. Among businesses that accept crypto today, it accounts for more than a quarter of total revenue, with an average share of 26%. This underscores that crypto is evolving into a meaningful payment rail, not just a speculative investment tool.

The study also highlights growth momentum. Roughly three-quarters of merchants that accept crypto, or 72%, report that their crypto sales increased over the past year. That said, this growth suggests that once businesses implement digital asset payments, customers quickly begin to use them more often, reinforcing the business case for adoption.

For small businesses, the shift is playing out on the ground. Nikisha Bailey, co-founder of Win Win Coffee, said the company focuses on meeting customers where they are and making engagement with the brand as easy as possible. As payment options evolve, she argued, it is vital that independent businesses can explore new tools in a way that feels organic and aligned with existing operations.

Bailey added that flexibility and choice in how customers pay helps ensure that smaller, independent businesses grow alongside their communities, rather than falling behind them. This aligns with wider crypto payment adoption trends across sectors that have digitally savvy customers and high transaction volumes.

Key benefits merchants see in crypto adoption

Merchants cite several concrete advantages when they start accepting cryptocurrency payments. The leading reasons include faster transaction speed and access to new customers, which are both mentioned by 45% of respondents. These factors make digital asset payments particularly attractive for businesses operating online or across borders.

Moreover, merchants highlight improvements in security and privacy. 41% cite enhanced security features as a core benefit, while 40% point to greater privacy for customers. Together, these benefits show why companies accepting cryptocurrency payments increasingly view it as part of a broader digital strategy rather than a one-off experiment.

Generational trends also play a crucial role. Younger shoppers are driving much of the interest, with merchants reporting the strongest demand from Millennials and Gen Z. According to the study, 77% of merchants see the most inquiries from Millennials, while 73% report high interest from Gen Z or younger customers, underlining growing gen z crypto interest in everyday commerce.

Small businesses, in particular, see intense curiosity from younger demographics. They report especially high inquiry rates from Gen Z shoppers, at 82%, compared with 67% for midsize companies and 65% for large enterprises. However, this pattern suggests that smaller merchants may feel the pressure to innovate more quickly to keep younger customers engaged.

Industries at the forefront of crypto adoption

The research identifies several sectors where digital asset payments are already becoming commonplace. Leading the way are hospitality and travel, where a striking 81% of merchants report using or exploring crypto acceptance. This aligns with the industry’s focus on global customers, cross-border transactions, and fast settlement.

In addition, digital goods, gaming, luxury, and specialty retail show high adoption levels, with 76% reporting strong engagement with crypto payments. These sectors often serve digital-native users and early adopters, making them natural testing grounds for new payment technologies and hospitality crypto adoption rates.

The retail and e-commerce segment also stands out, with 69% of merchants in this category reporting meaningful activity around crypto payments. Moreover, the combination of speed, global reach, and highly online customer bases is helping push crypto deeper into checkout flows, including cryptocurrency checkout integration in mainstream online stores.

The final hurdle for merchant crypto adoption

Despite the strong interest and clear demand, the study shows that simplicity remains the biggest barrier. Interestingly, more than four in five merchants, or 84%, again say they expect crypto payments to become common within the next five years. However, many are still waiting for the experience to match the ease of card payments.

A vast majority, or 90%, say they would be willing to try accepting crypto if the experience felt as simple as processing traditional card transactions. Similarly, 90% of merchants say they would likely accept digital assets if setting up payments were as straightforward as onboarding for credit card acceptance.

Stu Alderoty, President of the National Cryptocurrency Association, said the data shows that lack of interest is not what is holding crypto back. Instead, understanding and usability are the real challenges. Too many people, he argued, still do not see how digital assets fit into their everyday lives and the routine payments they make.

That is why, according to Alderoty, partnerships with trusted platforms like PayPal are crucial. The NCA and PayPal are working together to close the knowledge gap by showing how crypto can be simple, accessible, and easy for both businesses and consumers to use. This includes clearer education and more user-friendly payment experiences.

About the National Cryptocurrency Association and PayPal

The National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) is a 501(C)(4) organization focused on educating consumers about how to engage with digital assets safely and confidently. The group highlights real stories of Americans and businesses using crypto, alongside educational resources designed to cut through hype and misinformation.

Moreover, the NCA offers guidance and support through partnerships and services that help people navigate the complexity of modern digital finance. For more information, visit https://www.nca.org, where the organization publishes additional resources and updates on its advocacy work.

PayPal has been transforming global commerce for more than 25 years, building innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure. The company supports consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets, enabling them to participate in and benefit from the global digital economy.

For further details on PayPal, visit https://www.paypal.com, https://about.pypl.com/ and https://investor.pypl.com/, where the company provides corporate, product, and investor information.

Survey methodology and scope

The survey was conducted online in the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of the National Cryptocurrency Association. Fieldwork took place from October 21-27, 2025, targeting 619 payment strategy decision makers across key industries including retail and e-commerce, hospitality and travel, luxury and specialty retail, and digital goods and gaming.

Respondents were full-time employees working in, or responsible for, C-suite, e-commerce and digital, finance, or marketing functions within their respective companies. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is evaluated using a Bayesian credible interval, a statistical approach that estimates the reliability of sample results.

For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 3.9 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. This gives analysts a robust basis to interpret the findings on crypto payments small businesses and large enterprises alike, across multiple verticals and customer segments.

In summary, the research shows that crypto payment adoption is gaining real momentum in U.S. commerce, driven by clear customer demand and reinforced by measurable sales impact. However, broader scale depends on making digital asset payments as intuitive and seamless as legacy card systems, an area where education and user experience design will be decisive.

In a cautious crypto market, Bitcoin cash today is stuck in a tactical stalemate as short-term bulls test a tired but still constructive higher-timeframe structure.

BCH/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
loading=”lazy” />BCH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily Structure (D1): Neutral with a Slightly Heavy Tone

The main scenario on the daily timeframe is neutral, leaning mildly bearish in the short term but not structurally broken.

Trend and Moving Averages (EMA)

– Price: $590.5
– EMA 20: $595.58
– EMA 50: $591.21
– EMA 200: $543.07

BCH is trading below the 20-day EMA, almost exactly on the 50-day EMA, and still clearly above the 200-day EMA. That tells us momentum has cooled and near-term sellers have the upper hand, but the longer-term uptrend is intact. Think of the 20-day as the accelerator – it is no longer being pressed – while the 200-day is the chassis, and that is still pointing up. Until price starts living below $560–$570 and dragging the 50-day lower, this is more of a pause or distribution zone than a confirmed top.

RSI (Momentum)

– RSI 14 (D1): 47.75

Daily RSI is just under 50, right in the neutral band. There is no oversold edge for aggressive dip buyers yet, and no overbought hangover either. Momentum has essentially flattened out. In practice, this often precedes a directional move once a catalyst appears. For now, it simply confirms that the trend is taking a breather rather than in full reversal.

MACD (Trend Momentum)

– MACD line: -5.81
– Signal line: -3.08
– Histogram: -2.72

The daily MACD is in negative territory with a widening negative histogram. That is a clean sign that downside momentum has been building recently. It aligns with the price slipping below the 20-day EMA. However, the values are not extreme, so this looks like a controlled loss of momentum rather than panic selling. If the histogram keeps expanding lower while price starts closing under the 50-day EMA, then we are shifting from a drift lower to an active downtrend.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility and Positioning)

– Middle band (20 SMA): $602.18
– Upper band: $646.93
– Lower band: $557.42
– Price: $590.5 (below the mid, above the lower)

Price is trading between the middle and lower band, hugging the lower half of the range but not yet testing the extreme. This usually reflects a market that is leaning bearish but not washed out. Volatility (the band width) is decent but not explosive, so we are in a controlled range, not in capitulation or breakout mode. If BCH starts closing near or below $560 (the lower band area), you would expect either a short-term oversold bounce or, if sentiment worsens, a volatility expansion lower.

ATR (Volatility)

– ATR 14 (D1): 22.79

An ATR around $23 on a roughly $590 asset implies that a 3–4% daily swing is normal right now. Volatility is elevated enough to matter for risk sizing but not at the extremes you see at macro tops or bottoms. You can be wrong by $20–$30 in a day without anything structurally changing; this should guide position sizing and stop placement more than market bias.

Daily Pivot Levels

– Pivot Point (PP): $588.97
– Resistance 1 (R1): $600.33
– Support 1 (S1): $579.13

Price is hovering almost exactly on the daily pivot at $589–$590. That reinforces the idea of indecision: bulls and bears are fighting at fair value. R1 at $600 is the first intraday line that bulls need to clear convincingly to gain traction; S1 around $579 is the nearby level that, if broken on a daily close, would show that sellers are starting to dominate within this range.

1-Hour Chart (H1): Short-Term Buyers Trying to Reclaim Control

On the 1-hour timeframe, BCHUSDT looks healthier than on the daily. There is a short-term bullish bias, but it is working against a neutral, slightly heavy daily backdrop.

Trend and EMAs (H1)

– Price: $590.3
– EMA 20: $587.08
– EMA 50: $585
– EMA 200: $588.43

On H1, price is above all three EMAs, and the shorter EMAs (20, 50) are pushing above the 200. That is a clean intraday bullish structure: pullbacks into $585–$588 are getting bought. Short-term traders are trying to build a floor, even while the daily chart is still digesting prior gains.

RSI (H1)

– RSI 14 (H1): 58.34

Hourly RSI is in the upper neutral to mild bullish zone. Momentum has shifted in favor of buyers, but we are not overbought. This is typically the kind of RSI you see in a constructive intraday trend where dips can still be bought without chasing stretched conditions.

MACD (H1)

– MACD line: 2.64
– Signal line: 2.64
– Histogram: 0

MACD on H1 is positive but flat, with the line on top of the signal and the histogram at zero. That points to a fading but still intact bullish phase. The strong push higher has paused; now the market is deciding whether to extend the move or revert back into the previous range.

Bollinger Bands and ATR (H1)

– Middle band: $586.39
– Upper band: $598.34
– Lower band: $574.45
– ATR 14 (H1): 4.66

Price is sitting above the middle band and below the upper band on H1, reflecting a modestly bullish drift within a normal volatility envelope. An hourly ATR of about $4.7 says typical hourly swings around 0.8% are standard. That is enough noise that breakout trades near $600 need room to breathe, but not enough to call this a high-volatility regime intraday.

Hourly Pivot Levels

– Pivot Point (PP): $590.1
– R1: $592.5
– S1: $587.9

Price is hovering on the hourly pivot as well, with very tight intraday levels. The near-term micro battle is between R1 at $592.5 and S1 at $587.9. A clean push above R1 with sustained trading would open the path toward $598–$600; a slip below S1 would drag the pair back into the $582–$585 congestion area.

15-Minute Chart (M15): Micro Bullish, Good for Execution Not for Direction

The 15-minute chart is flagged as bullish, which mostly matters for execution timing rather than bigger-picture bias.

Trend and EMAs (M15)

– Price: $590.3
– EMA 20: $589.79
– EMA 50: $588.57
– EMA 200: $584.99

Price is trading just above the 20- and 50-EMA and comfortably over the 200-EMA. Short-term buyers are still in control, but the distance to the fast moving averages is small, so momentum is not explosive; it is more of a grind higher. For active traders, this favors buying pullbacks near $588–$589 if the structure holds, rather than chasing strength into resistance.

RSI and MACD (M15)

– RSI 14 (M15): 52.48
– MACD line: 0
– Signal line: 0.05
– Histogram: -0.05

RSI on M15 is almost exactly mid-range, and MACD is effectively flat with a tiny negative histogram. Micro momentum has cooled off, matching the idea that BCH is consolidating intraday after a short push higher. The 15m trend is still up, but there is no immediate energy; this is a pause, not a clear continuation or reversal yet.

Bollinger Bands and ATR (M15)

– Middle band: $590.31
– Upper band: $593.4
– Lower band: $587.23
– ATR 14 (M15): 1.49

Price is glued to the middle band on the 15-minute chart, right at $590, inside a relatively narrow band. That matches low intraday volatility and a balance between micro buyers and sellers. A 15m ATR of about $1.5 shows that a $2–$3 wiggle is completely normal noise on this timeframe, so micro levels can be hit without any change in the broader intraday picture.

15-Minute Pivot Levels

– Pivot Point (PP): $590.73
– R1: $591.17
– S1: $589.87

On the execution side, the 15m pivot cluster around $590–$591 is a magnet. Short-term scalpers will be watching whether BCH can hold above $589.9–$590 on dips. Repeated failures to get back above this micro pivot would be an early sign that intraday buyers are losing steam.

Reconciling the Timeframes

There is a clear tension here:

Daily (D1): Neutral regime, price below the 20-day EMA with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI – a market that has lost upside momentum and is at risk of drifting lower if macro sentiment worsens.

Hourly and 15m: Short-term bullish bias with price above EMAs and constructive RSI, but flattening MACD and tight consolidation around pivots.

In other words, short-term traders are trying to push BCH higher inside a larger, tired structure. Until the daily chart confirms, any intraday strength should be viewed as a tactical move, not yet a full trend resumption.

Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin Cash Today

For a convincing bullish case, BCH needs several conditions to align.

1. Daily reclaim of the short-term trend
A daily close back above the 20-day EMA at $595–$600 would be step one. That would put price above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and back over the daily pivot R1 ($600.33), signalling that the recent dip was corrective, not the start of a deeper downtrend. You would want to see daily RSI move back decisively above 50 and the MACD histogram start shrinking in negative territory or ticking back toward zero.

2. Intraday continuation through resistance
On the lower timeframes, bulls need to push and hold above H1 R1 at $592.5 and then the upper Bollinger Band area around $598–$600. If price can consolidate above $600 on H1 with EMAs following underneath as support, the path toward the mid-Bollinger region on D1 around $602–$610 opens up. Above that, the upper band zone toward $640–$650 becomes a medium-term magnet.

3. Macro: risk stabilisation
With the broader crypto market in fear and BTC dominance high (around 57% as of 2024), a more confident move in BCH likely requires at least stabilisation in Bitcoin and a halt to the broader risk-off tone. If BTC can hold its own without another leg lower, capital can start rotating back into large-cap alts like BCH.

What invalidates the bullish scenario?
A daily close back below $579–$580 (D1 S1), especially if accompanied by a further drop in RSI toward the low 40s and an expanding negative MACD histogram, would argue that the bounce attempt failed and the market is transitioning into a more directional downtrend. Weak intraday rallies that keep stalling below $595–$600 would also weaken the bull case, suggesting sellers are using every bounce to exit.

Bearish Scenario for Bitcoin Cash Today

The bearish path focuses on the idea that the daily structure is rolling over and intraday strength is just distribution.

1. Failure at the $595–$600 ceiling
If BCH repeatedly tests and fails to reclaim the 20-day EMA and the daily R1 near $600, intraday EMAs on H1 and M15 will likely start flattening and then rolling over. That would show that short-term buyers are out of firepower. Persistent rejection around $595–$600 is often how a top quietly forms in a choppy environment.

2. Break of near-term support and drift to the lower band
On the downside, a clean move below $579–$580 (D1 S1) and then into the $560–$565 zone (close to the daily lower Bollinger Band) would confirm bears are gaining control. With MACD already negative and RSI below 50, that kind of move would likely push momentum into a more decisive bearish regime. ATR tells us such a $20–$30 daily drop is well within normal volatility.

3. Macro risk-off extension
If Bitcoin continues to struggle and global risk appetite weakens further, capital could retreat further into BTC and stablecoins, leaving BCH without strong sponsorship. In that context, each lower high on the daily chart becomes more meaningful, and a retest of the 200-day EMA around $540–$545 would come back into view as a medium-term target.

What invalidates the bearish scenario?
A sustained daily close above $605–$610, with RSI back above 55 and MACD histogram turning positive, would undercut the bearish argument. That would mean not only regaining the short-term moving averages but also clearing the mid-range and showing real momentum, suggesting the market is ready to target the upper Bollinger area again rather than roll over.

Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

BCHUSDT today is not a clean trend trade on the higher timeframe; it is a range market with conflicting signals: neutral daily regime, slight downside bias in momentum, and constructive but vulnerable short-term structure. In markets like this, strong directional conviction tends to be punished unless you have a clear catalyst.

For traders, that usually means one of two approaches: either mean-reversion around clear intraday levels (the $580–$600 band) with tight risk controls, or waiting for a break and retest of key daily zones (below $560 or above $605–$610) before committing size. Given the current ATR levels, both daily and intraday, risk sizing and stop distances should reflect the reality that 3–4% daily swings and 1% intraday moves are normal noise, not necessarily a change of regime.

Volatility is moderate, sentiment is cautious, and BCH is stuck between a still-supportive long-term uptrend (above the 200-day EMA) and a cooling short-term momentum profile. Until that tension resolves, the edge lies more in execution and discipline than in a strong directional bet for Bitcoin cash today.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects a technical view of the market data provided. It is not investment, financial, or trading advice, and it does not take into account your personal financial situation or risk tolerance. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose.

As Washington wrestles with the future of U.S. crypto rules, a former SEC lawyer has sided with the ripple clarity act position on how digital assets should be treated.

Former SEC attorney backs Ripple on speculation and securities law

Former Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer Teresa Goody Guillen has publicly endorsed Ripple‘s argument that speculation alone should not be enough to trigger securities regulation for digital assets.

Her written comments, filed with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force and published Monday on the commission’s website, respond to a January 9 letter from Ripple. In that letter, the company warned against any crypto regulatory framework that automatically treats a token as a security simply because buyers expect its price to rise.

Guillen told regulators that passive token trading activity must not be confused with enforceable investment rights under U.S. law. Moreover, she stressed that regulators should focus on legal obligations rather than market hype when drawing jurisdictional boundaries.

Passive economic interest and limits of the Howey test

Guillen agreed with Ripple’s core concern, warning that approaches built around a “passive economic interest” risk conflating ordinary market speculation with legally protected investment interests.

In her submission, she explained that her own academic work on digital asset market structure had been cited by Ripple only as part of a wider discussion of economic analysis. However, she clarified that those citations should not be read as supporting any attempt to equate mere price betting with formal investment contracts.

She emphasized that no single factor, including speculative intent, should be determinative when securities laws are applied to crypto assets. Instead, those economic and contractual elements must be weighed on a sliding scale grounded in legal obligations and historical regulatory practice.

That said, both Ripple and Guillen questioned enforcement strategies that lean too heavily on the “efforts of others” element of the Howey test. They argued that focusing only on buyers’ expectations of managerial efforts risks overlooking other key features of an investment contract, such as a common enterprise and enforceable profit rights.

Ripple’s CLARITY Act context and asset-versus-contract distinction

Ripple’s original submission to the SEC’s Crypto Task Force arrived as Congress was considering the CLARITY Act and broader howey test implications. At the heart of the company’s position is a sharp distinction between an asset and the transaction through which it may have been sold.

The company maintains that once an issuer’s enforceable promises have been fulfilled or expired, the token itself should not remain subject to securities regulation indefinitely. Moreover, Ripple warned that treating the asset as a permanent security would collapse the difference between a contract and a commodity-like asset, expanding regulatory authority beyond its intended limits.

In its letter, the company also pushed back against regulatory theories that define digital assets as securities primarily because of price expectations. According to Ripple, speculation not securities is the correct way to understand secondary-market trading unless the asset carries a clear legal claim on an issuer.

Guillen’s filing largely tracks that analysis while stopping short of endorsing any one bill. In one mid-document passage, she echoed the ripple clarity act framework by urging regulators to separate contract-based rights from the status of an underlying token in secondary markets.

Digital Value Instruments and new category proposals

Separately from her SEC submission, Guillen released a discussion draft for a proposed Digital Markets Restructure Act of 2026, which has not been adopted by either the SEC or the CFTC. The draft seeks to address gaps that have emerged as crypto markets evolved.

The proposal outlines a new classification called Digital Value Instruments for assets that do not fit squarely within the traditional securities or commodities buckets. Moreover, it sketches a risk-based division of oversight between agencies, with responsibilities allocated according to market function and investor exposure.

Her ideas arrived amid a broader clarity act policy debate in Washington. That said, Guillen framed the draft as a contribution to ongoing policy design rather than a fully formed legislative blueprint, emphasizing the need for flexible tools as tokenization spreads.

Broader policy input and concerns over trading platforms

The comments by Guillen were part of a wider wave of submissions filed in late January, as industry participants, policy organizations, and former officials weighed in on market integrity, tokenization, and cross-border supervision.

Several contributors warned regulators against broad exemptions for decentralized trading platforms, arguing that systemic risks and conflicts of interest could go unchecked. Moreover, they urged the SEC and CFTC to coordinate oversight to avoid regulatory gaps that sophisticated actors might exploit.

Other commenters focused on investor protection. They urged Congress and regulators to preserve core safeguards without forcing digital assets into disclosure regimes built for traditional equities. That said, many agreed that tailored transparency rules will still be needed for complex token structures.

Congressional delays and uncertain legislative timeline

The policy debate is unfolding as legislative momentum has slowed in the Senate. This week, a winter storm in Washington delayed the Senate Agriculture Committee’s first markup vote on digital asset market structure legislation.

The postponement pushed back an already uncertain schedule for comprehensive rules, further complicating prospects for near-term reform. Moreover, shifting political priorities have made bipartisan compromises harder to secure, despite pressure from market participants for clearer lines.

The Banking Committee’s parallel work on the CLARITY Act has also been delayed, leaving the Agriculture Committee’s bill as the most immediate vehicle for reform, despite visible partisan divisions. Observers say that, at least for now, clarity act ripple adoption will hinge on whether lawmakers can reconcile competing visions of federal oversight.

In summary, Guillen’s intervention reinforces a growing view that securities law for crypto must distinguish between contractual rights and asset-level trading. However, with Congress divided and timelines slipping, the final shape of that framework remains unresolved.

In a new move to diversify reserves, SRx Health Solutions has expanded its exposure to digital assets through an additional allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

SRx boosts Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings to $18 million

On January 27, 2026, SRx Health Solutions, Inc. (NYSE American: SRXH) disclosed that it had deployed more capital into its digital treasury management approach, purchasing additional Bitcoin. With this latest move, the Company now holds a total of $18 million in cryptocurrency, split across Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to the announcement from North Palm Beach, Florida, this latest allocation is part of a broader effort to formalize a digital asset approach within the corporate balance sheet. Moreover, management framed the purchase as an extension of the Company's existing financial policy rather than a shift in its primary business activities.

Internally developed models and risk management approach

The new investment in Bitcoin was executed based on internally developed models designed to preserve long-term optionality across volatile market regimes. That said, the Company emphasized that these models are intended to manage risk while still positioning the balance sheet to benefit from potential upside in digital assets.

Furthermore, the Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure forms a component of a structured capital policy rather than a speculative bet. By relying on quantitative frameworks, SRXH aims to adjust its holdings as market conditions evolve, while keeping a clear focus on shareholder value.

Broader capital allocation strategy and market positioning

The digital asset positions sit within SRXH's wider capital allocation strategy, which targets excess liquidity deployment into a mix of opportunities. These include publicly traded securities such as Opendoor, digital currencies, and commodities like gold and silver that management believes are undervalued and offer attractive risk-adjusted return potential.

In this context, management noted that the use of a digital asset treasury management framework is meant to complement traditional investments instead of replacing them. Moreover, the Company views the combination of equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as a diversified hedge against shifting macroeconomic conditions.

Flexibility around holdings and focus on core operations

The Company stated that it may increase or decrease its ownership in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets from time to time. Decisions will depend on factors such as market conditions, valuation levels, and strategic considerations. However, SRXH indicated that this financial strategy will remain dynamic rather than fixed.

Importantly, the Company clarified that its srx health solutions digital reserves initiative does not alter its core operational priorities. The announcement stressed that the investment activity is separate from day-to-day business, ensuring that primary resources continue to support healthcare-focused operations.

Overall, SRx Health Solutions' latest allocation brings its digital asset holdings to $18 million and reinforces a treasury framework that blends traditional securities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while maintaining flexibility and preserving the Company's central business focus.

Concerns are rising inside traditional finance that stablecoin disruption could accelerate deposit flight from U.S. banks and reshape the core revenue model of regional lenders.

Standard Chartered flags a looming threat for U.S. banks

Standard Chartered has warned that U.S. regional banks are the most exposed to the growth of stablecoins because their revenues lean heavily on net interest margin (NIM). These banks depend on interest income from customer deposits far more than diversified giants or investment firms.

Moreover, the bank’s latest analysis argues that a structural shift in how deposits are held is underway, driven by digital assets rather than conventional competitors. This shift is not just a profitability issue, it is a direct challenge to the funding base of the regional banking system.

Projected $500 billion stablecoin-linked deposit outflow by 2028

According to Standard Chartered, around one-third of the expanding stablecoin market could be sourced from developed-market bank deposits by 2028. That would translate into an estimated $500 billion outflow from traditional banks into tokenized cash instruments over the period.

With the overall stablecoin market cap forecast to reach $2 trillion by 2028, the report estimates that this half-trillion shift will unfold over the next three years. However, the bank stresses that the impact will not be evenly distributed, with regionals facing the sharpest hit from this potential wave of stablecoin market outflows.

Washington’s regulatory bottleneck and trillion-dollar banking risk

The report argues that a regulatory bottleneck in Washington is obscuring what it calls a trillion-dollar threat to the U.S. banking core. While stablecoins initially grew as tools for emerging markets and cross-border flows, their use is now expanding into domestic payments and savings, turning them into a direct competitor to bank deposits.

That said, the core concern is not only about volume but about the quality and stickiness of deposits that might migrate. The rise of these digital instruments is increasingly seen as a structural challenge to the traditional deposit franchise that underpins U.S. lending.

Net interest margin in focus as primary risk

The main danger for U.S. lenders lies in the erosion of net interest margin erosion, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. NIM reflects the spread between the interest banks earn on assets such as loans and securities, and the interest they pay on deposits.

However, the deposits being attracted into stablecoins are often the same low-cost, sticky retail balances that help support NIM. As customers shift savings into tokenized dollars, that margin compresses, pressuring earnings and potentially constraining credit growth across the economy.

Why U.S. regional banks are especially exposed

Standard Chartered’s modeling suggests that U.S. regional banks exposure is materially higher than for large diversified banks or investment banks. Regionals lean more on traditional interest income and have fewer offsetting revenue streams from trading, wealth management, or global operations.

Moreover, because regional lenders depend so heavily on so-called sticky retail deposits, any shift into digital assets hits their bottom line disproportionately hard. “We find that regional U.S. banks are more exposed on this measure than diversified banks and investment banks, which are least exposed,” the report notes.

Stablecoins, payment rails, and reserve strategies

Stablecoins function as the crypto economy‘s primary payment rails and cross-border settlement tools, while staying pegged to relatively stable reserves such as fiat currencies or gold. The sector is led by Tether’s USDT, with Circle’s USDC in second place, and together they dominate liquidity on major trading venues.

However, these issuers hold only a small portion of their backing assets in commercial bank deposits, limiting any recycling of funds back into the incumbents they disrupt. According to Standard Chartered, Tether keeps just 0.02% of its reserves in bank deposits, while Circle allocates around 14.5%, underscoring the challenge for banks hoping to retain balances through stablecoin reserve holdings.

Tether, Circle, and the new push into U.S. domestic markets

The competitive landscape is also evolving as stablecoin giants move deeper into the United States. The market remains dominated by Tether and Circle, but Tether is now pushing into the U.S. domestic payments space through USAT, a dollar-backed token issued in partnership with Anchorage Digital Bank.

Moreover, this emerging tether circle competition over domestic payment flows could intensify the pressure on mid-sized banks. As stablecoins become more embedded in day-to-day transactions, they may increasingly pull deposits out of traditional checking and savings accounts.

Market structure legislation and the interest-yield standoff

The key catalyst for widespread stablecoin disruption, in Standard Chartered’s view, will be U.S. market structure legislation now stalled in the Senate. The latest draft bill would bar stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders, a provision strongly supported by big banks but opposed by many crypto industry stakeholders.

However, industry advocates argue that such a ban could stifle innovation and cement advantages for incumbents, especially if stablecoins cannot offer yield that rivals bank accounts or money market funds. Despite the ongoing standoff, Standard Chartered expects the bill to be approved by late Q1 2026, setting clearer rules for issuers and banks alike.

Domestic deposit flight risks and the long-term outlook

Standard Chartered frames the situation as part of broader domestic deposit flight risks, with stablecoins emerging as a parallel money system for both trading and payments. The bank believes that as regulation is clarified, these instruments will move even further into mainstream financial activity, including everyday commerce within the United States.

That said, the report notes that banks could, in theory, mitigate some of the damage if stablecoin issuers held a larger share of their reserves in traditional deposits. For now, though, the low banking share in reserves and the sizable projected deposit outflows together highlight a mounting structural challenge for the U.S. regional banking model.

In summary, Standard Chartered’s analysis depicts a future in which stablecoins drain as much as $500 billion from developed-market banks by 2028, compressing NIM and intensifying competition for deposits. Unless banks and policymakers adapt, regional lenders in particular may see their funding base and profitability eroded by the rapid ascent of tokenized dollars.

Digital dollars are reshaping how companies think about cash, and stablecoin regulation is fast becoming a core issue for corporate finance leaders.

Stablecoin regulation: from niche crypto to treasury talking point

Stablecoins are digital assets engineered to keep a steady value, usually pegged to and backed by the U.S. dollar or equivalent reserves. As a result, they are increasingly discussed alongside traditional cash instruments. However, many finance chiefs are still in exploration mode rather than execution.

The passage of the GENIUS Act has brought new regulatory clarity to these tokens in the United States. That shift has pushed stablecoins from a perceived crypto side-topic into mainstream treasury and corporate finance conversations, especially for multinationals that move large volumes of money across borders.

Tether, USDT and the scale of its balance sheet

A detailed Fortune feature, titled “Crypto giant Tether has $187 billion in assets, big plans for U.S. expansion—and a CEO who warns the West is heading toward social collapse,” highlights the scale of this market. The article includes an interview with Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, the crypto firm that generated about $15 billion in profit in 2025.

According to that reporting, Tether has accumulated more U.S. Treasury bills than some large economies such as South Korea. Moreover, it holds notable amounts of Bitcoin and gold. This asset base underpins the companys flagship token, a dollar-backed stablecoin known as USDT, which is now deeply woven into global trading and payments flows.

The companys influence is reflected in how it has used USDT to help rewire parts of the global financial network. That said, this concentration also raises questions about counterparty exposure and reserves transparency, which remain central themes in ongoing policy debates.

Tether’s dominant market position

Fortune notes that Tether “dominates the sector, thanks in part to a first-mover advantage that has resulted in USDT becoming the go-to way for millions of people in developing countries to hold dollars.” This underscores how digital dollars have become a lifeline in markets facing currency instability or capital controls.

USDTs market capitalization stood at $187 billion as of early January, according to CoinMarketCap. Moreover, its daily trading volume exceeds that of all rival stablecoins combined. This is the case even though U.S. citizens, with limited exceptions, are not permitted to use Tethers coin under current policy constraints.

In the past two years, Tether has also begun to expand well beyond finance. The company has made large investments in satellites, data centers, farming, telecommunications, and media. However, these moves could draw additional regulatory and political scrutiny as the firm extends its reach into real-world infrastructure.

What growing scrutiny means for corporate finance

For chief financial officers, the Fortune profile offers a lens into how big stablecoin issuers are becoming systemic players. Moreover, it illustrates why stablecoin regulation is increasingly viewed as an issue intertwined with monetary policy, market structure, and corporate risk management.

Corporate leaders evaluating crypto treasury diversification must weigh potential benefits—such as faster settlement and 24/7 liquidity—against operational, compliance, and counterparty risks. That said, the evolving legal framework, including the GENIUS Act, is gradually defining the boundaries within which large issuers and institutional users can operate.

Early corporate experimentation and partnerships

Intuit CFO Sandeep Aujla is one prominent executive who has discussed leaning into stablecoins. He has pointed to a partnership with Circle as part of the companys exploration of new payment and treasury options, signaling growing interest in this technology among established software and fintech players.

Such initiatives suggest that corporate stablecoin adoption will likely proceed in stages, starting with limited use cases where the economics and controls are clear. However, as more rules are finalized and high-profile issuers like Tether continue to scale, CFOs will face increasing pressure to understand both the strategic opportunities and the attendant risks.

For now, the message to finance leaders is straightforward: even if your company is not ready to transact in stablecoins, it is time to track the issuers, legislation, and market structure shaping this fast-growing corner of digital finance.

Markets are watching the bitcoin silver ratio closely as wild swings in the precious metal raise questions about whether this cycle is nearing exhaustion.

Bitcoin and silver ratio revisits 2022 capitulation levels

The bitcoin to silver ratio has dropped toward levels last seen near bitcoin‘s 2022 cycle low. It currently stands close to 780, which is now below the 2017 peak when bitcoin hit $20,000. Moreover, it is approaching the level recorded in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 as the ratio fell to around 700.

Such convergence between bitcoin and the precious metal suggests that silver may be entering a more vulnerable phase relative to BTC. However, traders should also weigh macro conditions, risk appetite, and liquidity before drawing strong conclusions from one cross-asset metric.

Silver’s explosive rally and sharp intraday reversal

Silver has surged nearly 300% over the past year, underscoring powerful speculative interest and strong momentum. On Monday, silver fell almost 15% after rising by a similar amount earlier in the session, briefly reaching highs near $117 per ounce before pulling back to around $112. That said, such intraday swings highlight elevated silver market volatility and an increasingly fragile sentiment backdrop.

These violent moves often emerge late in strong uptrends as positioning becomes crowded and short-term traders dominate flows. Moreover, the speed of the reversal hints that some participants may be taking profits or hedging aggressively after a parabolic advance.

Historical silver tops tend to occur early in the year

Looking at the long-term price history for silver, previous local tops have tended to cluster in the early part of the calendar year, most often in the first half. Notable examples include February 1974 and January 1980, which marked a clear blow-off top at $47. Further peaks appeared in February 1983, May 1987, February 1998, April 2004, May 2006, March 2008, and April 2011 at $50, another blow-off phase.

This historical pattern raises a potential red flag for the current rally. If history is repeating, the precious metal could be nearing a new silver cycle peak, or may already have logged a blow-off top. However, cycle timing is never precise, and macro conditions today differ materially from the inflationary and monetary backdrops of earlier decades.

Investor psychology and the temptation to call the top

In every historic bull market across asset classes, there is a persistent temptation to call the top. Investors often search for validation by drawing parallels to famous contrarian calls, most notably Michael Burry‘s housing market warning in 2007. Moreover, as prices accelerate and volatility increases, that urge to label a final peak becomes even stronger.

The current environment in the silver market fits this familiar pattern. Rapid gains, sharp intraday reversals, and rising leverage can all create the impression that a terminal high is imminent. However, bull markets sometimes extend far longer than most participants expect, particularly when liquidity remains abundant and narratives stay powerful.

What the bitcoin silver ratio may be signaling

The latest move in the bitcoin silver ratio sits at the intersection of this history and current market psychology. With the ratio back near levels associated with bitcoin’s November 2022 bottom, some analysts argue that silver could now be more exposed to downside relative to the leading cryptocurrency.

Moreover, the fact that the ratio is below its 2017 peak, despite bitcoin’s earlier surge to $20,000, underlines how aggressively silver has outperformed in the recent phase. That said, cross-asset ratios are only one piece of the broader puzzle and should be treated as a contextual tool rather than a standalone trading signal.

In summary, the combination of stretched silver performance, historical topping patterns early in the year, and a ratio near prior capitulation levels paints a cautious picture. However, traders in both Bitcoin and silver should balance these signals with macro data, liquidity trends, and their own risk tolerance before making decisive allocation shifts.

Across global financial centers, a fresh wave of automation is quietly reshaping how insurance ai connects carriers, brokers, and outsourced service providers.

Pace and the rise of agentic automation in insurance

What links London, New York, and Bermuda? According to Jamie Cuffe, each city stands as a major hub for the global insurance sector and its complex operations.

Cuffe grew up across all three markets while his father worked at Lloyd’s of London, often described as the world’s oldest and most prestigious insurance marketplace. That background, he argues, gave him a front-row view of how specialty coverage and back-office work really function.

After years working in startups, Cuffe has come full circle. Today he is the CEO and cofounder of Pace, an agentic AI startup built to handle insurance operations at scale, with a particular focus on business process outsourcing, or BPO, workflows.

From offshore outsourcing to AI-first insurance operations

Cuffe draws a direct historical line between the rise of the Internet and the growth of large offshore BPO providers. In his view, connectivity in the 1990s and 2000s fundamentally changed where insurance work could be done.

“The Internet is really what gave rise to outsourcing,” Cuffe said. “In the 1990s, 2000s, for the first time, you could basically do this work wherever you were and send it back.” However, he now believes a similar shift is underway as core processes move from human workers to AI systems.

“Now we are seeing the same thing, where all of this work that was being outsourced offshore can now be outsourced to AI,” he added. That said, he frames this not as a replacement of carriers and brokers, but as a restructuring of how repetitive, document-heavy tasks get executed.

Backing from Sequoia and the scale of the BPO opportunity

Pace, founded in 2024 by Cuffe, already counts Prudential, The Mutual Group, and Newfront among its customers. Moreover, the company has just closed a $10 million Series A round from Sequoia Capital, Fortune has exclusively reported.

Within insurance, the BPO market represents around $70 billion in annual spending, according to Cuffe. However, when including broader financial services operations tied to the sector, that number rises sharply to about $400 billion, underscoring the size of the addressable market.

“That is the part of the market that Pace really addresses,” said Bryan Schreier, the Sequoia partner leading the deal. Schreier previously worked with Cuffe at his last startup, Cheer, which sold to Retool in 2020.

Why AI fits the operational side of insurance

Schreier describes the operations side of insurance as a roughly $100 billion opportunity that is ripe for automation. In his view, Pace sits at the center of this shift toward more intelligent, software-driven processing.

“The thesis behind Pace is that the next wave of disruption on the operations side of insurance—this $100 billion market—is AI because it is a perfect fit,” Schreier said. Moreover, he argues the technology is arriving just as many incumbents look for new efficiency levers.

Both Schreier and Cuffe emphasize that modern AI systems excel at reading and interpreting massive amounts of text. That capability matters in insurance, where policies, submissions, endorsements, and claims files generate an extraordinary volume of documentation.

Lessons from the legal sector’s AI moment

Because these models are strong at parsing dense, technical language, they have already transformed parts of the legal industry. In recent years, mega-unicorns such as Harvey and Legora emerged by targeting legal workflows with specialized tools.

Cuffe believes that history offers a preview of what is coming next for insurers and brokers. However, he also stresses that insurance work, especially in commercial lines, tends to operate at a scale that far exceeds typical legal caseloads.

“Legal took off first because copilots were useful, and there were a lot of people doing that work,” Cuffe said. That said, he argues that the volume and structure of insurance submissions create an even stronger case for agentic systems.

The agent moment for insurance ai

In commercial and specialty insurance, carriers may face hundreds of thousands or even millions of submissions each year, Cuffe noted. In addition, some insurers must handle tens of thousands of claims while maintaining compliance and service levels.

Cuffe contends that this is exactly where the full promise of insurance ai starts to show. The combination of high document volume and repeatable processes creates ideal conditions for autonomous agents rather than simple suggestion tools.

“In insurance, the tasks are at much, much higher scale—hundreds of thousands or millions of submissions, tens of thousands of claims, for some of these insurers,” he said. “They need to be able to process that. The agent moment is what is unlocking the insurance industry for us.” Moreover, he suggests that the winners will be those who can pair deep domain expertise with robust agentic architectures.

As incumbents in London, New York, Bermuda, and beyond grapple with cost pressures and regulatory demands, players like Pace are betting that intelligent agents will become core to everyday workflows. If Cuffe and Schreier are right, the next phase of competition in insurance operations will be defined less by headcount in offshore BPO centers and more by the sophistication of the AI that underpins them.

French public company Capital B has renewed its long-term digital asset initiative, further aligning its treasury with the capital b bitcoin vision while relying on structured funding tools.

Capital B renews $356 million capital plan for Bitcoin

Capital B has confirmed the renewal of its $356 million ATM-type capital increase program in partnership with TOBAM, reinforcing its commitment to sustained Bitcoin accumulation. The initiative enables the French public company to raise funds in stages and channel them directly into Bitcoin purchases, reducing the risk of sudden market impact.

Moreover, this renewed plan positions Capital B among Europe‘s most proactive listed firms integrating Bitcoin as a core treasury asset. By spreading issuance over time instead of executing a single large capital raise, the company can better align equity financing with digital asset deployment and overall market conditions.

Bitcoin accumulation has increasingly emerged as a preferred strategy for corporations seeking protection against inflation and currency volatility. Capital B now joins a growing cohort of public entities converting part of their capital base into long-term Bitcoin exposure. However, the company emphasizes disciplined and structured accumulation over speculative timing.

Why the ATM structure suits Capital B’s Bitcoin roadmap

The company relies on an ATM-type capital increase program because it offers both flexibility and operational efficiency. Instead of selling a large block of shares at once, Capital B can issue new equity gradually, reacting to market demand. This framework gives management room to schedule Bitcoin purchases carefully while limiting sudden equity dilution.

That said, the program also supports a steady accumulation path that can track price dynamics and liquidity levels. By matching issuance windows with favorable market phases, Capital B can seek to optimize entry points without distorting either equity or Bitcoin markets.

The renewed arrangement with TOBAM grants Capital B freedom to deploy raised capital opportunistically. Management can expand purchases during periods perceived as attractive while preserving financial discipline and risk controls. Moreover, this measured approach strengthens the firm’s corporate Bitcoin roadmap by aligning growth ambitions with prudent balance-sheet management.

In practice, such structures help public companies maintain responsiveness when volatility rises. Capital B can slow or accelerate issuance depending on market depth, ensuring that its Bitcoin allocation strategy remains adaptable. This method stands in contrast to one-off placements, which often leave less room for tactical execution.

Institutional backing through the TOBAM partnership

TOBAM plays a central role in supporting Capital B’s renewed capital initiative, adding institutional depth to the strategy. As an experienced asset manager with expertise in structured financing and alternative assets, TOBAM contributes frameworks that enhance execution quality and investor confidence.

Furthermore, the collaboration connects traditional finance with Bitcoin-focused treasury strategies. TOBAM’s familiarity with European regulatory environments helps ensure transparency and compliance throughout the capital increase process. This alignment supports responsible institutional positioning in Bitcoin while lowering operational and regulatory risk for Capital B.

Such arrangements illustrate a broader shift within capital markets. Asset managers increasingly support Bitcoin-oriented companies in building sustainable funding models that can scale over time. In this case, the tobam partnership support strengthens governance standards and validates Capital B’s long-term intent in the digital asset space.

Capital B benefits from combining strong internal conviction about Bitcoin with external financial rigor. That said, the presence of an established asset manager can also reassure shareholders and potential new investors that execution will follow defined processes and risk controls.

Regulatory backdrop and European positioning

The renewed program arrives during a phase of improving europe regulatory clarity around digital assets. Public companies now operate in a more defined framework when tying capital strategies to cryptocurrencies. This environment encourages transparent disclosures, governance structures and reporting practices for Bitcoin-related initiatives.

Moreover, greater clarity helps reduce uncertainty for auditors, boards and institutional investors. Capital B’s decision to move ahead with a large, clearly structured plan for Bitcoin accumulation underlines how companies can act decisively once the rules become more predictable.

The French issuer thus positions itself as a reference case in Europe for institutional bitcoin investment conducted through public markets. While each jurisdiction maintains specific requirements, the overall direction toward more transparent oversight supports broader corporate participation in Bitcoin over the coming years.

Impact on balance sheet and corporate strategy

Through this model, Capital B steadily transforms part of its capital base into balance sheet bitcoin exposure. Rather than allocating funds sporadically, the company relies on a defined mechanism that links new equity financing to targeted digital asset purchases. This structure allows management to track performance and risk more closely.

However, the approach remains focused on long-term value creation. Capital B is not seeking short-lived speculative gains but instead building an enduring position that can span multiple market cycles. The corporate bitcoin strategy centers on resilience, with Bitcoin serving as a complementary asset within a broader treasury mix.

This framework could inspire other public firms that wish to integrate Bitcoin into corporate finance without disrupting their existing capital structures. By calibrating issuance, allocation and risk parameters over time, companies can move toward scalable exposure while keeping shareholder interests in focus.

Broader implications for corporate Bitcoin adoption

Capital B’s renewed ATM-type agreement with TOBAM signals strong belief in Bitcoin’s future relevance within corporate finance. The company is preparing for ongoing accumulation rather than episodic, sentiment-driven moves. Moreover, its strategy offers a live example of how structured equity tools can serve digital asset objectives.

More listed firms may evaluate similar mechanisms as they consider treasury allocations to Bitcoin. The capital b bitcoin framework shows how gradual issuance and transparent governance can reduce market stress while still building meaningful exposure.

In summary, Capital B has positioned itself as a European benchmark for public companies integrating Bitcoin into long-term financial planning. The renewed $356 million program, supported by TOBAM, enhances credibility, supports disciplined execution and strengthens the firm’s role in the global digital asset ecosystem.

Vienna will become a strategic base for KuCoin EU as the exchange pursues its next phase of growth under the European Union’s MiCA regime.

Sabina Liu appointed to lead European strategy

KuCoin has appointed former London Stock Exchange Group executive Sabina Liu as managing director of KuCoin EU, tasking her with driving its business across the bloc. The move follows the exchange securing a crypto asset service provider license in Austria, with Liu operating from Vienna as the focal point of its regional push.

Liu previously headed KuCoin’s institutional division and spent more than a decade at LSEG, where she worked with global investment banks and cross-border trading clients. Moreover, the company said in an announcement shared with Cointelegraph that her background in traditional markets is expected to support tighter integration between digital asset venues and established finance.

MiCA as growth framework, not constraint

Liu described securing a MiCA license as a “major milestone” that gives the exchange a unified regulatory framework to serve a region with mature and diverse financial markets. She highlighted the European Union’s growing use of crypto assets and “significant room” for further adoption across stablecoins, payments and wealth products under clear european crypto regulation.

However, rather than viewing MiCA’s stricter capital, reporting and governance requirements as a drag on profitability, Liu argued they provide structural “guardrails” for long-term growth. She said KuCoin does not see compliance as a trade-off against margins but as the foundation for a sustainable business model and robust consumer protection.

In that context, she framed the kucoin eu strategy as positioning the platform as a regulated alternative in a market where larger exchanges already command most of the trading volume. Moreover, she said the team’s focus is on building trust over time rather than chasing short-term market share at any cost.

Competitive positioning in a crowded market

According to Liu, KuCoin EU aims to leverage its MiCA authorization and institutional experience to differentiate itself. “Our objective is to offer users greater choice through differentiated services and a clear compliance-first positioning,” she said, signaling that regulatory rigor will be a core part of the value proposition.

That said, the exchange still faces intense competition from incumbents that have already built deep liquidity pools and retail audiences in Europe. However, Liu suggested that a clearly articulated regulatory stance, combined with tailored product design for European users, can carve out space even in a mature market.

Compliance shift after US criminal case

The strategic reset in Europe comes less than a year after KuCoin’s parent company, Peken Global Limited, pleaded guilty in a US criminal case. The charges centered on operating an unlicensed money transmitting business and failures related to anti-money laundering (AML) controls.

Under the settlement, the company agreed to forfeit $184.5 million, pay a $112.9 million fine and exit the US market for two years. Moreover, Liu characterized the case as a turning point that reflected what she called the “historical context of the crypto industry’s early development” and the growing need for clear regulation and compliance.

She stressed that the European arm has embedded “high compliance standards from the start” and maintains regular dialogue with regulators across the region. However, the earlier enforcement action underscores the pressure on exchanges globally to demonstrate credible crypto compliance standards as rules tighten.

From altcoin-heavy listings to MiCA-aligned offerings

MiCA also forces KuCoin to revisit its long-standing altcoin listing strategy, which historically leaned on a large universe of altcoins and early-stage tokens. Under the new regime, exchanges must align listed products with detailed disclosure, governance and risk requirements set out in the legislation.

Liu said KuCoin EU remains “committed to supporting the pioneers of the Web3 ecosystem,” but only within the MiCA rulebook. Moreover, she emphasized that the platform will use its own listing procedures and risk assessments to balance innovation with regulatory expectations, signaling a more selective approach than in previous market cycles.

Building consumer use cases with Tomorrowland

Her appointment is closely tied to KuCoin’s effort to convert its MiCA authorization into visible, consumer-facing products. A key initiative is a multi-year deal to become music festival Tomorrowland Winter and Tomorrowland Belgium‘s exclusive crypto exchange and payments partner from 2026 to 2028.

Under the partnership, KuCoin plans to use its European license to support compliant crypto payments at festivals, enabling attendees to interact with digital assets within a regulated framework. However, Liu framed the arrangement less as a branding exercise and more as a real-world pilot for mainstream adoption of regulated crypto infrastructure.

She said the goal is to integrate “compliant crypto into real-world experiences” so that digital assets operate as trusted financial plumbing behind the scenes. Moreover, by stress-testing this model at large-scale events, KuCoin aims to refine its offerings for broader deployment across payments and digital wealth services.

Overall, KuCoin’s European strategy under Sabina Liu centers on using MiCA as an anchor for long-term expansion, moving from an altcoin-focused exchange image toward a regulated platform that blends innovation with compliance in one of the world’s most closely watched crypto markets.

Traders are watching the hash ribbon as extreme weather, rising costs and falling hashrate again test bitcoin’s resilience.

Miners slash hashrate as weekend storm hits operations

Over the weekend, a powerful U.S. storm disrupted Bitcoin mining, sending operating costs sharply higher and forcing some miners to power down hardware. As companies cut computing power, or hashrate, network capacity fell and profitability came under pressure. Moreover, crypto traders quickly shifted attention to an on-chain indicator that has historically mapped out major lows in the market.

The hashrate, which reflects the total computational power securing the Bitcoin blockchain, has dropped roughly 20%. It declined from around 1.2 zettahash per second (ZH/s) to approximately 950 exahashes per second (EH/s). That said, such sharp contractions have previously coincided with a process known as miner capitulation, where unprofitable operations temporarily shut down.

How the hash ribbon indicator tracks miner capitulation

The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator built on the premise that the price of the largest cryptocurrency often forms a low during phases of miner stress. It tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hashrate, with data widely followed on platforms such as Glassnode. However, rather than focusing on price alone, it uses mining activity as a proxy for industry health.

Capitulation is signaled when the short-term average falls below the long-term average, which charting services highlight in light red. The worst phase is considered over once the 30-day moving average crosses back above the 60-day line, represented by darker red. Historically, when this recovery aligns with a shift in price momentum from negative to positive, often shown as a transition from dark red to white, it has coincided with long-term buying opportunities.

Analysts note that the current configuration of the hash ribbon resembles earlier periods when aggressive miner shutdowns later gave way to a sustained rebound. Nevertheless, the timing of any potential recovery remains uncertain, as both energy markets and macro conditions continue to evolve.

Difficulty adjustment and historical price reactions

The hashrate slump is also feeding directly into the network’s core parameters. Because Bitcoin targets consistent 10-minute block times, the protocol triggers a difficulty adjustment roughly every two weeks. With computing power down by about 20%, the next recalibration is projected to decline by about 17%. If confirmed, this would mark the largest difficulty drop since July 2021, when China banned bitcoin mining and forced widespread relocation of hardware.

The Hash Ribbon last showed a clear capitulation in late November, when bitcoin carved out a low around $80,000. Since then, the market has recovered to roughly $88,000, with intraday pricing recently quoted near $88,326.08. Moreover, market participants emphasize that while spot prices remain volatile, past cycles suggest that normalization of mining metrics has often coincided with a more durable floor.

Past capitulation cycles and post-shock rebounds

Previous macro shocks offer a useful roadmap. In mid 2024, a comparable pattern appeared when the Hash Ribbon entered capitulation around the same time that the yen carry trade began to unwind. During that phase, bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 in August before rallying to about $100,000 the following January. However, each cycle has unfolded against a different macro backdrop, making direct comparisons imperfect.

During the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in 2022, bitcoin again sank amid intense miner stress. The price fell toward $15,000 as capitulation spread across the mining sector. Once the Hash Ribbon normalized and mining economics improved, the market staged a recovery, with bitcoin rebounding to around $22,000. Moreover, this episode reinforced the indicator’s reputation as a useful gauge of cyclical extremes.

Will the current capitulation phase set up the next rally?

With the hashrate still depressed and difficulty poised for a historically large downward adjustment, traders are asking whether the latest bout of miner capitulation will again precede a broader bitcoin price recovery. The key question is whether hashrate will rebound decisively once energy costs ease and margins stabilize, allowing the Hash Ribbon to flip from stress to expansion.

If the pattern seen during the 2022 FTX crisis and the mid-2024 unwind repeats, normalization in network metrics could mark the beginning of a renewed expansionary phase for bitcoin. That said, macro conditions, regulatory developments and capital flows will all influence whether this latest capitulation ultimately sets the foundation for another long-term uptrend.

For now, the market is balancing short-term volatility against an on-chain backdrop that, historically, has pointed to opportunity once miners have weathered the most painful stage of the downturn.

Traders are preparing for a packed week in which token unlocks could inject hundreds of millions of dollars in fresh supply into the crypto market.

$464 million in new tokens set to hit the market

This final week of January 2026 will see more than $464 million in locked crypto assets released into circulation, according to Tokenomist. Moreover, analysts warn that this cluster of unlocks may amplify short-term volatility for both major and mid-cap projects.

The mechanism is simple. During these events, previously locked tokens held by teams, early backers, or ecosystem reserves become tradable. However, when circulating supply rises faster than demand, prices often come under pressure, prompting traders to track unlock calendars closely.

Why this week's wave matters for crypto markets

Over $464M worth of tokens is scheduled to be released in the coming days, potentially reshaping liquidity conditions. That said, the impact will vary by asset, depending on depth of demand, market structure, and how concentrated the new supply is among early holders.

Market focus is clustering around three key projects: SIGN, KMNO and JUP. These names, alongside several others, are considered especially sensitive because they are still in price discovery and remain heavily influenced by tokenomics events.

One-time cliff unlocks above $5 million

According to Tokenomist, several major projects face one-time cliff events, where large blocks of tokens are released all at once rather than progressively. These single-date unlocks, each worth more than $5 million, can trigger sharp, if temporary, moves in both price and liquidity.

The most prominent case is SUI, which is set for the week's largest release, valued at more than $64 million. Moreover, other highlighted projects include SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, JUP, OP, TREE, SAHARA and ZORA, each bringing millions of dollars worth of new tokens to market in a single event.

An updated breakdown shows that the top 7 cliff events alone account for $142.98M. This group is led by SUI, with $80.38M in tokens scheduled for release. However, cliff token unlocks do not guarantee a sell-off; they simply compress a large supply change into a narrow time window that traders monitor closely.

Linear releases add steady selling pressure

Alongside these one-time cliff events, the market will also absorb a series of linear releases, in which new tokens are unlocked gradually each day rather than in a single drop. These linear token unlocks rarely grab headlines, yet they can still exert continuous and sometimes underestimated selling pressure.

Projects with daily release amounts above $1 million include RAIN, SOL, RIVER, TRUMP, CC, WLD, DOGE and AVAX. Together with the one-time events, these linear flows collectively contribute to the roughly $464 million of value scheduled to unlock.

Cliff and linear schedules over the next 7 days

Looking ahead, Tokenomist tracks upcoming one-time large releases exceeding $5 million over the next 7 days for assets such as SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, JUP, OP, TREE, SAHARA and ZORA. Moreover, linear daily unlocks above $1 million are expected for RAIN, SOL, RIVER, TRUMP, CC, WLD and DOGE.

Historically, price reactions can start well before the official date, as sophisticated traders position around these events. That said, the effect is highly path-dependent: in stronger risk-on conditions, markets can sometimes absorb or even rally through large releases if demand is robust.

How traders use token unlocks in risk management

For active participants, the token unlocks meaning is straightforward: they map out a foreseeable shift in supply that can alter short-term price dynamics. Many traders adjust position sizes or hedge exposure when large events appear on the calendar, especially when liquidity is already thin.

In more challenging market environments, major unlocks can reinforce existing selling pressure, particularly for tokens where fundamentals or narrative are weakening. Nevertheless, high-quality projects with strong ecosystems and persistent demand can often digest even sizable releases without lasting damage to price structure.

Ultimately, this $464 million wave of scheduled releases is one of the most closely watched near-term catalysts in the crypto market. Whether trading short term or investing with a multi-year horizon, monitoring unlock schedules has become a key element of effective risk management.

New network data suggests that ethereum blobs may be stressing the chain’s ability to handle surging layer 2 activity after the recent Fusaka upgrade.

Fusaka upgrade impact on Ethereum’s data throughput

The Fusaka hard fork, activated in December, was promoted as a major step toward cheaper and more scalable layer 2 activity on Ethereum. It expanded the network’s data capacity by allowing rollups to submit more temporary data, known as blobs, which they use to post batched transaction information to the main chain.

However, new analysis from MigaLabs indicates that the network is struggling under data-heavy conditions, even with these higher limits. The findings raise questions about whether Ethereum is ready to sustain significantly higher throughput from rollups, especially if demand accelerates in 2025 and beyond.

Data-heavy blocks show elevated miss rates

The study, titled “Ethereum Blocks With Higher Blob Counts Face Higher Miss Rates,” examines validator performance using data collected since October 2025. It compares network behavior before and after Fusaka, as well as two subsequent Blob-Parameter-Only (BPO) updates that further raised blob limits.

MigaLabs, which has previously worked with Lido DAO and the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, concludes that Ethereum is not yet using its expanded capacity efficiently. Despite an increase in the target blob count, most recently lifted to 14, the median number of blobs per slot has actually fallen since the first BPO update.

Moreover, very high blob counts remain uncommon. Blocks carrying 16 or more blobs have appeared only a few hundred times out of more than 750,000 observed slots. That said, when those high data loads do appear, they coincide with a sharp rise in missed-slot rates across the network.

Miss rates spike beyond 15 blobs

The MigaLabs research finds that the baseline miss rate for slots with up to 15 blobs is around 0.5%. However, once blocks carry 16 or more blobs, miss rates climb into a range between 0.77% and as high as 1.79%, significantly above normal network conditions.

At the maximum observed level of 21 blobs in a single slot, the miss rate was reported to be more than three times the network average. These data heavy blocks are primarily generated by large layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum and Base, which depend on Ethereum’s data availability for their security guarantees.

Moreover, the analysis notes that if layer two demand rises and these elevated blob levels become routine, the higher miss rates could compound. This dynamic might threaten overall network stability, especially during periods of market stress or surging transaction volumes.

MigaLabs calls for caution on further blob capacity increase

According to the report, the pattern of rising slot misses at higher blob counts is consistent across all observed data points, even if the sample size for the most extreme values remains limited. MigaLabs therefore argues that the current blob miss rates should be treated as a warning signal rather than an anomaly.

In its conclusion, the firm recommends pausing any further blob capacity increase until miss rates at the top end of usage move back toward the baseline. Furthermore, it argues that real demand should first approach the existing limits before developers consider raising them again, to avoid unnecessary stress on validator infrastructure.

The report also highlights how ethereum blobs function as a core resource for rollups, making stable data availability crucial for the wider scaling roadmap. If high-throughput rollups continue to push usage toward the upper end of the blob range without corresponding improvements in reliability, Ethereum’s role as a secure data layer could be called into question.

Broader roadmap and security priorities

The performance concerns around blobs arrive as the Ethereum community promotes its broader scaling roadmap. A recent post describing “Tomorrow: Fusaka” framed the upgrade as the network’s second major change this year, with a feature highlight on PeerDAS, a technique expected to unlock up to 8x data throughput for rollups.

For rollup teams, that promise translates into potentially cheaper blob fees and more room to grow on-chain activity. However, MigaLabs’ findings suggest that improving raw capacity alone is insufficient if validator performance degrades at the upper end of usage.

At the same time, the Ethereum Foundation is stepping up work on long-term security. As reported, it has made post-quantum resilience a core strategic priority, forming a dedicated Post Quantum team and committing $2 million to the effort. The initiative, announced by researcher Justin Drake, will be led by Thomas Coratger alongside Emile, a contributor to leanVM.

Altogether, the latest fusaka upgrade impact, combined with growing attention to cryptographic robustness, shows Ethereum navigating a delicate balance. It must scale data throughput for rollups while ensuring that reliability, validator performance and long-term security remain firmly in focus.

In summary, the MigaLabs analysis underscores that Ethereum’s path to higher throughput is not just about raising limits but also about maintaining stable operations under stress, as real-world usage gradually pushes the protocol toward its current blob ceilings.

Regulators are racing to close australia crypto regulation loopholes as rapid growth in digital assets, exchanges, and tokenized finance reshapes the country’s financial system.

ASIC warns of regulatory perimeter gaps in digital assets

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has identified regulatory perimeter gaps in the crypto and fintech sectors as a critical risk for 2026, highlighting persistent exposure to unlicensed advice, misleading conduct, and exploitation of unclear rules.

Moreover, ASIC‘s Key Issues Outlook 2026, released Tuesday, singles out emerging financial sector participants in digital assets, payments, and users of artificial intelligence as priority areas that require enhanced oversight.

ASIC stressed that some entities are actively structuring their operations to remain outside formal regulation, which in turn reinforces perceived uncertainty and underlines the need for clearer licensing obligations and stronger supervision.

Enforcement challenges at the regulatory perimeter

The Key Issues Outlook 2026 highlights that rapid innovation by firms unfamiliar with financial services law continues to generate risks across the crypto ecosystem. However, the regulator acknowledges that some businesses still operate legitimately outside existing regulatory frameworks.

ASIC noted that deciding whether new product classes or services should fall within financial services licensing regimes ultimately rests with the Australian government, not the regulator, which can complicate timely enforcement.

That said, the urgency is growing. Australia’s crypto adoption rate reached 31% in 2025, up from 28% in the prior year, placing the country among the world’s most engaged crypto markets.

Self-managed superannuation funds have increased their digital asset exposure sevenfold since 2021 to A$1.7 billion, while major exchanges such as Coinbase are preparing dedicated cryptocurrency pension accounts that target Australia’s large retirement savings pool.

Despite this rapid growth, regulatory fragmentation persists across platforms, service providers, and product types, raising questions about consistent investor protections.

Joe Longo urges innovation as tokenization accelerates

ASIC Chair Joe Longo warned in November that Australia risks becoming a “land of missed opportunity” if it fails to adapt to blockchain-driven tokenization that is reshaping global capital markets.

“Australia must innovate or stagnate. Seize the opportunity or be left behind,” Longo told the National Press Club, underscoring the scale of the transformation facing regulators and market participants.

He added that J.P. Morgan had informed him its money market funds will be entirely tokenized within two years, a signal that institutional adoption of blockchain-based infrastructure is moving quickly.

In that context, debates over crypto regulation in Australia are increasingly tied to competitiveness, market integrity, and long-term capital formation as much as to consumer protection.

Parliament advances comprehensive crypto licensing framework

The Australian Parliament is currently debating the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, introduced in November by the Treasurer and the Financial Services Minister to address australia crypto regulation gaps with a comprehensive licensing model.

The proposed legislation would require crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain Australian Financial Services Licenses (AFS licenses), formally bringing them under ASIC supervision.

Moreover, companies that breach the new rules could face penalties of up to 10% of annual turnover, marking a significant escalation in potential enforcement tools available to the regulator.

The bill creates two new license categories for digital asset platforms and tokenized custody platforms, shifting the focus of regulation toward businesses that control customer funds rather than the underlying blockchain technology.

Licensed firms will need to meet ASIC standards for transactions, settlement processes, and asset custody. However, small operators handling less than A$10 million in customer assets annually would be exempt from the new regime.

The government estimates that the framework could unlock around A$24 billion in annual productivity gains while simultaneously strengthening investor protection across Australia’s digital asset markets.

Temporary relief eases transition to new rules

While permanent legislation moves through Parliament, ASIC has rolled out a suite of temporary measures intended to bridge the transition period and reduce disruption for existing businesses.

In December, the regulator finalized stablecoin class relief that allows intermediaries to distribute certain stablecoins and wrapped tokens without securing separate licenses until mid-2028, provided they maintain appropriate records and issue Product Disclosure Statements to retail investors.

Moreover, the relief extends to omnibus custody structures, which are widely used in traditional finance but were previously constrained in crypto markets, enabling more consistent treatment across asset classes.

ASIC presented these temporary measures as a way to support responsible innovation while it awaits broader digital asset reforms covering tokenized payments, custody arrangements, and more detailed operational standards.

The regulator has also adopted a sector-wide no-action stance until June 2026, giving companies additional time to review updated guidance, file license applications, or adjust business models to meet anticipated obligations.

Existing rules already capture many digital asset products

ASIC’s INFO 225 guidance confirmed that a wide range of products already fall within existing financial product rules that require AFS licenses, even in the absence of new primary legislation.

That said, the guidance explicitly notes that many stablecoins, wrapped tokens, tokenized securities, and digital asset wallets are likely to be treated as financial products under current law.

As a result, firms providing access to these instruments may already be subject to licensing, conduct, and disclosure obligations, regardless of whether they identify themselves as traditional financial services providers.

This approach reflects ASIC’s broader view that regulation of digital assets should focus on functions and risks rather than labels or specific technologies.

Broader risk landscape extends beyond crypto

Beyond digital assets, ASIC highlighted nine additional critical risks for 2026, emphasizing that vulnerabilities are building across the wider financial system.

These include increased retail exposure to private credit markets, operational failures by superannuation trustees, cyber-attacks that could undermine market confidence, and potential outages affecting CHESS clearing and settlement infrastructure.

Moreover, the regulator warned that growing global regulatory divergence is driving fragmentation that complicates compliance and risks uneven consumer outcomes across jurisdictions.

For now, Australia’s regulatory push is designed to catch up with global peers while closing gaps that have left investors exposed to fraud, operational breakdowns, and unclear legal protections in fast-evolving crypto and fintech markets.

In summary, ASIC’s agenda through 2026 centers on clarifying the regulatory perimeter, implementing a robust crypto licensing framework, and managing systemic risks as tokenization and digital assets become embedded in Australia’s financial architecture.

The new cooperation framework between European and Indian authorities, centered on the esma rbi memorandum, is set to reshape how clearing access and oversight operate across borders.

ESMA and RBI sign key Memorandum of Understanding

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s financial markets regulator and supervisor, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The MoU is designed to facilitate cooperation and the exchange of information to support the recognition of central counterparties (CCPs) established in India and supervised by RBI.

Moreover, the agreement lays the foundation for closer oversight coordination between EU authorities and Indian regulators. It directly addresses the regulatory requirements needed so that Indian CCPs can be recognised for activity involving EU clearing members and cross-border risk management.

This MoU marks a significant step towards restoring access for EU clearing members to Indian central counterparties. It follows two years of sustained engagement between ESMA and RBI, culminating in this formal cooperation arrangement dated 27/01/2026. That said, further technical and procedural steps will still be needed before full clearing links are operational again.

The arrangement reflects ESMA’s strong commitment to international supervisory cooperation and mutual support. However, it is also intended to advance safe, resilient and open financial markets by ensuring that cross-border clearing is backed by robust information sharing and coordinated supervision.

Role of the MoU under EMIR

The MoU is a key requirement under Article 25 of the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) for the recognition by ESMA of third-country CCPs. Under this regulatory framework, ESMA may only recognise a non-EU central counterparty where effective cooperation arrangements with the relevant home authority are in place.

In practical terms, this cooperation agreement enables the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd (CCIL), a CCP established in India and supervised by RBI, to re-apply for recognition under EMIR. The esma rbi framework therefore opens the door for a fresh CCIL recognition process, subject to ESMA’s usual risk and compliance assessments.

Moreover, once a new ccil recognition application is successfully processed, EU clearing members could again clear specific Indian products through CCIL. This would support cross border clearing cooperation in line with EU standards on risk controls and transparency.

However, recognition is not automatic. ESMA will still assess whether CCIL and other relevant entities meet all applicable conditions under the emir recognition process, including prudential, operational and governance requirements, before taking any final decision.

Broader cooperation with Indian market regulators

Beyond the agreement with RBI, ESMA is also continuing discussions with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA). These talks aim to conclude similar cooperation arrangements that can underpin central counterparty recognition and other forms of supervisory collaboration.

Furthermore, these ongoing negotiations are expected to support broader indian ccp access for EU market participants, subject to future recognition decisions. They also build on the rbi esma memorandum by extending the cooperative framework to other key Indian financial authorities.

That said, each arrangement with SEBI and IFSCA will need to address specific regulatory responsibilities and market segments. ESMA has indicated that it is working toward a coherent approach that maintains high standards while enabling cross-border activity.

In parallel, ESMA’s outreach to Indian regulators includes technical dialogue on risk management, default procedures and data reporting. However, any future sebi ifsca cooperation will remain anchored in the EU’s regulatory objectives of financial stability, investor protection and orderly markets.

Overall, this MoU between ESMA and RBI is a pivotal milestone for cross-border clearing with India. It restores a formal pathway for recognising Indian CCPs under EU rules and lays the groundwork for deeper cooperation with SEBI and IFSCA, thereby strengthening the resilience and openness of international financial markets.

Institutional demand remains strong as the Strategy bitcoin treasury grows further despite mixed signals from the broader digital asset market.

Strategy adds 2,932 BTC in latest accumulation round

Strategy, the prominent Bitcoin treasury company, has revealed a fresh BTC acquisition worth $264.1 million, underscoring its continued conviction in the asset. The firm purchased 2,932 BTC at an average price of $90,061 per coin, according to details shared in a new post on X by co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor.

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the purchase was executed between January 20 and 25. Moreover, Strategy financed the deal using proceeds from its STRC and MSTR at-the-market (ATM) stock offerings, continuing its practice of leveraging equity markets to expand its Bitcoin holdings.

Ongoing institutional Bitcoin accumulation at scale

In the past two weeks, the company has made multiple large buys that highlight sustained institutional bitcoin accumulation. Last week, Strategy added Bitcoin worth $2.13 billion, while in the week before that it spent another $1.25 billion on the cryptocurrency. However, the latest recent bitcoin purchase is smaller in comparison, even if it still reflects determined long-term positioning.

Following this new tranche, Strategy‘s total Bitcoin reserves have climbed to 712,647 BTC. That stash represents about 3.57% of the asset’s total circulating supply, reinforcing the company’s status as a dominant corporate holder. In value terms, these coins are worth around $62.23 billion, up nearly 15% versus the firm’s cumulative investment of $54.19 billion.

Strategy bitcoin treasury now leads corporate digital asset holdings

With this latest treasury bitcoin increase, Strategy remains the largest corporate digital asset holder in the world. Its nearest rival is Bitmine, a BTC mining company that pivoted toward an Ethereum-focused treasury strategy in 2024. That said, even with this shift, Bitmine’s overall position still trails Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin stance.

According to a recent press release, Bitmine expanded its treasury with an additional 40,302 ETH valued at $116.5 million. As a result, the firm’s total reserve has risen to 4,243,338 ETH, worth about $12.24 billion and corresponding to a circulating supply share of 3.52%. This parallel bitcoin reserve growth and Ether accumulation across major corporates illustrates diverging long-term strategies within the sector.

Bitmine ethereum staking and on-chain strategy

Recently, Bitmine has redeployed a significant portion of its Ethereum holdings into staking, aiming to earn passive yield on idle assets. In the past week alone, the company increased its locked stake by 171,264 ETH, pushing its total staked balance to more than 2 million tokens. Moreover, Bitmine claims leadership in this segment.

“Bitmine has staked more ETH than other entities in the world,” said chairman Tom Lee, emphasizing the firm’s commitment to bitmine ethereum staking. This strategy contrasts with Strategy’s focus on unlevered Bitcoin accumulation, offering investors different models for corporate engagement with digital assets.

BTC ETF outflows signal shifting market sentiment

While major corporates are ramping up their exposure, broader market flows have turned negative. According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded significant net outflows over the past week. Weekly btc etf outflows reached – $1.33 billion, marking the largest withdrawal of capital since the end of February 2025.

A week earlier, spot Bitcoin ETFs had posted net inflows of $1.42 billion, almost mirroring the current outflows. However, the latest withdrawals have now nearly wiped out that prior growth, hinting at short-term caution from ETF investors even as corporate buyers like Strategy and Bitmine continue to build their positions.

BTC price action amid large BTC acquisition

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000, down more than 5% over the last seven days. This pullback comes despite Strategy’s large btc acquisition spree and Bitmine’s ongoing Ethereum accumulation. That said, price weakness may partly explain why corporates view current levels as attractive for scaling their exposure.

In summary, Strategy‘s expanding Bitcoin position, Bitmine’s aggressive Ethereum staking, and the contrasting behavior of spot ETFs highlight a complex institutional landscape. While short-term flows appear cautious, balance sheet moves from major corporates suggest continued long-term confidence in digital assets.