福莘

You know it's right, but you can never do it.
You know it's wrong, but you can't control yourself.

A calm mind, stable emotions.
Patience in waiting, courage in action.
Controllable risks, determination to get rich.

A major mistake can lead to total failure.
There is no luck; what you can avoid on the first day, you cannot avoid on the fifteenth.
#交易心理

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税
The imposition of tariffs on EU products, a typical example of 'America First' trade protectionism, will inject significant volatility into the cryptocurrency market in the short term.

However, this move will exacerbate uncertainty in the global macroeconomy. Trade frictions between the US and Europe will impact the euro and dollar exchange rates, weakening the stability of traditional financial markets. Some capital seeking to avoid the impacts of tariffs and currency fluctuations may view cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a non-sovereign alternative asset, thereby bringing in new buying pressure.

The more profound impact lies in the disruption to the current global payment system. The trade war may accelerate the 'blockchainization' of global supply chains and trade settlements. To avoid the complex regulations and costs of the traditional banking system, businesses and institutions may experience a passive increase in exploration and demand for cross-border cryptocurrency payments and stablecoins, providing real use case support for digital currencies from a long-term perspective.

However, risks also exist. Severe market turbulence could generally elevate the selling pressure on risk assets, and cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility assets, may also be sold off in exchange for liquidity. At the same time, the US government may increase regulatory scrutiny of the crypto industry due to pressure from capital outflows.

@币安广场 @Binance News @币安中文社区

Silver Surge, Gold Shines: A Joint Bull Market of 'Conservative' and 'Aggressive'. Do You Understand the Dual Logic Behind It?

Gold and silver prices have recently reached historic highs, driven by a complex interplay of macro sentiment and structural factors.

On one hand, persistent geopolitical risks, expectations of major central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, and long-term doubts about certain sovereign credits have collectively created strong demand for safe-haven and monetary attributes. Gold's status as the traditional 'ultimate asset' is once again highlighted.

On the other hand, silver's upward momentum is more aggressive. It is not only a precious metal but also a key industrial metal. The acceleration of the global energy transition, especially the surge in industrial demand for silver from industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, has given it a unique dual logic of 'safe-haven + growth'. The current retreat in gold and silver prices from their peaks also confirms the market's strong optimism about silver's industrial prospects.

This surge has moved beyond mere speculation, reflecting the market's deep pricing of the existing monetary system and future industrial revolution. The continuity of the trend will depend on the specific path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of geopolitical situations, and the realization of actual industrial demand. For investors, this may not be a short-term price fluctuation but a signal of the opening of a new era of asset allocation logic. @币安广场 @币安中文社区 @Binance News

#黄金白银价格创新高

1.20 Review: The market maker achieves multiple objectives such as clearing positions, testing the market, arbitrage selling, and contract harvesting through the door painting market. For ordinary traders, this type of market carries extremely high risks, and it is recommended to primarily observe or wait for clearer trends before entering the market.

Insights for traders:

1. Avoid chasing highs and selling lows: In the door painting market, retail investors are easily harvested in both directions.

2. Pay attention to key price levels: Such as support level 2,900 and resistance level 3,200, these positions may be areas of activity for market makers.

3. Be mindful of position management: In highly volatile markets, high leverage can easily lead to liquidation; it is recommended to trade with a light position or use hedging strategies.

4. Combine with long-term cycle judgment: The current daily trend still needs observation; if the long-term trend is still upward, the door painting may be a mid-term washout.

#加密市场观察 $ETH @币安广场

There will definitely be $200,000 worth of Bitcoin; it's just a matter of time. From CZ's remarks at the Binance Square AMA, it is clear to see the shift in thinking that Binance and the entire cryptocurrency industry are experiencing—moving from frenzied speculation to rational construction.

CZ's cautious warning about meme coins and repeated emphasis on newbies staying away from leverage directly cools the market's restless emotions. He does not shy away from pointing out that most meme projects "don't even have a clear source," which punctures the bubbles of blind enthusiasm in the market, highlighting the sense of responsibility of a mature platform.

He described the altcoin season as "highly non-linear," admitting that no one can predict it accurately. This is essentially guiding users to abandon their fantasies of short-term profits and to focus instead on long-term value and ecosystem construction. His confidence in BNB is precisely built on the pragmatic foundation of "builders who are continuously working," rather than on price charts.

What is most interesting is his assertion about Bitcoin: "It will definitely reach $200,000; the only uncertainty is time." This reflects a strategic calmness and delineates the boundary between long-term beliefs and short-term speculation. His perspective has completely shifted from "trader" to "builder," focusing on improving infrastructure (such as the user system of Binance Square that has completed KYC), allowing healthy market mechanisms to grow naturally within it.
#BTC #比特币 @CZ @币安广场 @币安中文社区
$BTC

Ten times a day to explosion, died from high leverage, Ant warehouse trial and error

1. Compared to the thrill of spot trading, it's simply too enjoyable. Transitioning from spot to contracts, it turns out doubling is so easy, just one altcoin, with high leverage, a single order can easily be several times. (Ignoring the risks of high leverage)

2. Position, position, died from full warehouse pull, altcoins fluctuate too much, fluctuating 10 points in a minute, back feels cold, can't imagine, a drawdown, instantly back to zero. (Position is king)

3. Desire is inflated by pleasure, starting to fantasize about getting rich overnight, taking small risks for large rewards, the essence of trading has turned into gambling, the nature has changed. (The evil of desire)

4. Opportunities always exist, only with a steady flow of water, having capital, can there be opportunities. (Just being alive is good)
#新手感言 @币安广场 @币安中文社区 $BNB

The heavy snow has arrived as expected. When the gray-blue shadow on the weather forecast map finally moves south, the first snowflake touches the ground with an elegance like a slow-motion scene, and the entire city holds its breath.

This is the annual contract with winter... ...

——On the southern small potato's obsession with snow

#下雪了 $ETH @币安广场 @币安中文社区

How to maintain conviction in positions during extreme fluctuations?

The extreme fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market test not only investment strategies but also psychological resilience. Long-term holders need to avoid being 'thrown off the train' during cycles and must establish a systematic belief that supports them through volatility.

Clarify the underlying logic of positions

Conviction in positions should not be based on short-term price predictions but should be rooted in a deep understanding of asset value. A clear underlying logic helps investors distinguish between 'market fluctuations' and 'value transformation.' When prices fluctuate dramatically, returning to the fundamentals is essential to avoid being swayed by emotions.

Establish a system rather than chase timing

Successful long-term holders typically adopt a strategy of phased investments combined with regular rebalancing, which avoids the pressure of a one-time investment while smoothing out the cost of positions. Setting clear position management rules (such as single asset limit ratios and stop-loss and take-profit disciplines) allows the system to replace emotions in decision-making.

Manage information rather than being managed by information

The 24-hour information bombardment in the cryptocurrency market can easily trigger anxiety. Recommendations:

Distinguish between 'signals' and 'noise,' reduce excessive focus on short-term price discussions, maintain a moderate distance, and avoid the psychological drain caused by over-monitoring.

Accept imperfection and the value of time

Historical data shows that 80% of Bitcoin's gains occur within 20% of the time. Accept the fact that you cannot buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, and understand that 'being present' is more important than 'timing the market.' True compounding comes from maintaining a sufficiently long position in the correct direction.

Volatility is the norm in the cryptocurrency market and a litmus test for long-term investors. When prices are volatile, what is examined is not only the positions but also one's depth of understanding and psychological resilience. True conviction comes from understanding value, respecting cycles, and maintaining patience over time. #隐私叙事回归 @币安广场 @币安中文社区 @Binance News @CZ

Will the myth of a four-year bull market reappear?

The "four-year bull market" is the most classic cyclical narrative in the cryptocurrency market, with its logic rooted in Bitcoin's halving mechanism and historical price performance. However, as cryptocurrencies gradually integrate into the mainstream financial system, this rule is facing unprecedented challenges.

New variables are rewriting the cyclical logic, and now the market structure has fundamentally changed:

1. The Bitcoin spot ETF introduces traditional institutional funds, whose investment logic is more linked to macroeconomics and interest rate policies.

2. The diversification of crypto assets, with independent narratives from Ethereum, Solana, and others, may weaken the overall impact of Bitcoin's halving.

3. Regulatory and globalization games have become new uncertainties, as policy changes in the US and Europe may directly suppress or stimulate market sentiment.

The cyclical law has not disappeared, but its form is evolving.

The foundation of the four-year cycle—the scarcity brought by halving—still exists, but its effects may be prolonged, differentiated, or diluted. The future "bull market" may no longer present a comprehensive surge but rather structural rotations: Bitcoin, as "digital gold," progresses steadily, while new assets (such as RWA, DePIN, and blockchain games) may explode at different stages.

For investors, mechanically applying historical cycles may lead to passivity. More worth noting is the combined analysis of on-chain data, institutional holdings changes, and shifts in macro liquidity. In the new era, respect the cycle, but do not become superstitious about it; understand the rules, but place greater emphasis on variables. #牛市前兆 $BNB @币安广场 @币安中文社区 @BNSisi