Salar_X

The US economy has a fatal flaw that the experts are refusing to talk about…

I wonder if they’re keeping this information private on purpose. Maybe?

But the fundamental macroeconomic paradigm has undergone a radical transformation.

The hard truth? The next crash won't be a global contagion.

I’ve been watching these capital flows for a decade.

We used to worry about systemic risk spreading worldwide.

The new threat? Sovereign insolvency.

When I say ‘sovereign insolvency,’ I don’t mean a classic default.

I mean fiscal dominance: inflation, financial repression, and forced buyers.

If you think the next crisis looks like 2008, you’re hedging against a ghost.

Nobody is telling you this, but the global banking system has been compartmentalized.

The US isn't going to drag the world down with it this time…

IT’S GOING TO SINK ALONE.

Here’s why:

1. The US is stuck in a sovereign debt spiral. The Fed has to print to buy treasuries, destroying the dollar but saving the bond market.

2. Basel III regulations forced foreign banks to ring-fence capital. A crisis in New York doesn't trigger a margin call in London anymore.

3. Emerging Markets trade with each other now. The US consumer is no longer the sole engine of global GDP.

4. The Fed will stay "higher for longer" to fight stagflation, while the ECB and China cut rates to stimulate growth.

5. The toxic assets are US commercial real estate and US treasuries. Owned by US banks. The rest of the world is dumping this exposure as we speak.

That’s a localized depression.

What would invalidate this thesis?

1. If U.S. growth and productivity rise enough to offset rising government interest payments.

2. If CRE prices and cash flows stabilize before a big wave of loans has to refinance.

3. If the next shock spreads globally again (like 2008).

I’m watching those closely, but I don’t expect my thesis to change.

In my opinion, it’s a GLOBAL rotation opportunity.

When U.S. risk gets contained, capital doesn’t disappear, it reallocates.

It flows into commodities, it flows into hard assets, it flows into value stocks abroad.

This is exactly how the US stagflates while the rest of the world booms.

Can you profit?

There’s only one way to escape the glass dome.

“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”

Also… maybe don’t keep the basket in just one country lol.

Get some of your capital out of passive US index funds.

As long as you are 100% long the S&P 500, you are the collateral damage they need to reset the system.

That doesn’t make me a doomer. It makes me opportunistic.

Btw I’ll break down the specific assets/stocks to buy instead very soon, turn on notifications so you don’t miss it.

Many people will regret not following me sooner.
$PIPPIN $XRP $RIVER

On February 10, the White House is hosting a meeting focused on stablecoins and the broader Crypto Market Structure Bill.

The White House has set an end of February deadline for lawmakers and industry leaders to resolve their differences, because the entire market structure bill is currently stuck on one key issue.

THE CORE PROBLEM: STABLECOIN YIELD

The biggest disagreement is simple on the surface:

Should stablecoin holders be allowed to earn yield?

Because the implications of this are massive. Banks strongly oppose it. Crypto firms strongly support it.

And this single issue has delayed the most important crypto bill the U.S. has tried to pass so far.

WHY BANKS ARE OPPOSING?

Traditional banks believe yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits out of the banking system.

Their argument is based on basic math:

• Savings accounts pay 0.3%-0.4%
• Checking accounts pay near 0%
• Stablecoins can offer 3%-4% incentives

If stablecoins scale with yield, banks fear trillions in deposits could slowly migrate out of the system.

Banking industry groups have warned lawmakers that up to $6T+ in deposits could be at risk long-term if this structure is allowed.

Why are crypto firms resisting a ban?

Crypto companies, especially exchanges, see yield as a core part of their business model.

Some firms have said clearly:

If yield is banned entirely, they would rather see no bill passed than accept a framework they believe protects banks at crypto’s expense.

That is how serious this disagreement has become.

The broader crypto market structure effort has been building for months:

• The House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support.
• Separate Senate committees began drafting their own versions.
• But negotiations stalled once the stablecoin yield dispute escalated.

Since then:

• Committee markups have been delayed.
• Draft texts have been revised.
• Industry support has fractured.

That is why the White House stepped in directly.

This meeting is designed to force progress.

If a deal emerges, the next steps become possible:

1️⃣ Senate Banking Committee markup
2️⃣ Senate floor vote (requires 60 votes)
3️⃣ House Senate reconciliation
4️⃣ Final bill to the President

Without a yield compromise, the process cannot move forward.

There is another pressure factor:

THE 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS.

If legislation is not finalized before campaign season intensifies, the bill could be delayed into the next Congress. That would push full implementation years out.

So lawmakers are working within a limited window.

Stablecoins are now core financial infrastructure:

• Hundreds of billions in market size
• Trillions in annual transaction volume
• Critical liquidity rails for crypto markets

Regulatory clarity here will affect:

• Exchange operations
• DeFi growth
• Institutional participation
• Payment adoption

This is why the Feb 10 White House meeting is a pressure point moment.

If stablecoin yield disputes are resolved:

- The CLARITY Act path reopens
- Senate movement resumes
- Full market structure legislation becomes possible

If talks fail:

- The bill risks further delays
- Midterm politics take over
- Regulatory uncertainty continues, and the markets could experience more weakness.

$PIPPIN $AXS $XRP

And markets are already reacting to it.

Right now, stocks and crypto are both falling sharply, and many people think this dump has no clear reason.

But if you look at the economic data coming out of the US, the weakness is becoming very visible, and that is what markets are pricing in.

First signal: Job market is cracking.

In the latest data, more than 100K job cuts were recorded in January alone. This is the highest level of layoffs in January since 2009, the same period when the US economy was in recession.

At the same time, JOLTS job openings came in much lower than expected.

New job openings are now at their lowest level since 2023.

This means companies are not hiring and are instead cutting jobs, a clear sign that business conditions are weakening.

When hiring slows and layoffs rise together, consumer spending usually falls next.

Second signal: Stress in the tech credit market.

A large portion of tech loans and bonds are now distressed.

• Tech loan distress ratio is around 14.5%, the highest since the 2022 bear market.
• Tech bond distress ratio is near 9.5%, the highest since Q4 2023.

This means many tech companies are struggling to service debt.

When companies face debt stress, they cut costs, freeze hiring, and reduce spending, which slows the overall economy further.

Third signal: Housing market demand is collapsing.

Home sellers in the US have now outnumbered buyers by about 530,000, the biggest gap ever recorded. This shows demand is weak.

Housing is one of the largest parts of the economy.

When housing slows, it affects construction, banks, lending, and consumer confidence; all recession linked sectors.

Fourth signal: The Fed is not easing yet.

Despite economic weakness, the Federal Reserve is still maintaining a hawkish stance. Rate cuts are paused, and near term cuts look unlikely.

This means liquidity is not increasing, which makes economic stress worse instead of better.

Fifth signal: Bond market is flashing recession warnings.

The US 2Y vs 10Y yield spread has moved to its highest level in four years, a move known as bear steepening.

Historically, this shift has happened before recessions.

When you connect all the dots, the picture becomes clear:

• Job cuts rising
• Hiring falling
• Corporate debt stress increasing
• Housing demand weakening
• Fed staying hawkish
• Bond market signaling recession

Markets are not dumping without reason. They are reacting to growing signs that the US economy is slowing down and may be moving toward a recession phase.
$XRP $SOL $ZK