Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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The green candle for BTC changes the balance of power - just now the asset has transitioned into a stable uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe. The trigger for us in terms of opening speculative (!) trades. Basic targets: $89,804, $90,713, $91,622. The potential breakdown level is $87,530.
It is, of course, concerning that this growth coincided with the previously announced speech by US President Trump. Usually, growth during his speeches does not end positively. Plus, the price during this growth closed the nearest upper gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at $86,610-$89,295. Giving -1 argument for further growth, if this is just a rebound. But we do not trade signs, historical patterns, and not even gaps; we trade trends. The trend for growth according to our indicator is there.
The fact that the transition was impulsive makes us wait for a price pullback, down to the potential breakdown level of $87,530. We opened a small volume, at 1/3 of the allocated trading amount, a long with a 30 leverage from the rate of $89,393.50. Further, we will see how the situation develops. When approaching $87,530$ - likely to add another 1/3.
For now, the nighttime idea with the "Dragon" with targets $91,225$ and $95,531$ and "Bullish Wedge" with a target of $95,840$ - is under consideration.
It is, of course, concerning that this growth coincided with the previously announced speech by US President Trump. Usually, growth during his speeches does not end positively. Plus, the price during this growth closed the nearest upper gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at $86,610-$89,295. Giving -1 argument for further growth, if this is just a rebound. But we do not trade signs, historical patterns, and not even gaps; we trade trends. The trend for growth according to our indicator is there.
The fact that the transition was impulsive makes us wait for a price pullback, down to the potential breakdown level of $87,530. We opened a small volume, at 1/3 of the allocated trading amount, a long with a 30 leverage from the rate of $89,393.50. Further, we will see how the situation develops. When approaching $87,530$ - likely to add another 1/3.
For now, the nighttime idea with the "Dragon" with targets $91,225$ and $95,531$ and "Bullish Wedge" with a target of $95,840$ - is under consideration.
List of token and coin unlocks for the current week, January 26 - February 1, 2026
List of token and coin unlocks for the current week, January 26 - February 1, 2026. Summary information from #Cryptorank and #Dropstab. Two days behind - but all important unlocks of the week start only from the end of today.
Among the most notable: SIGN, TREE. By the way, we received TREE as an airdrop from Binance Square. And, like all assets received from them, we will sell them at the highs of the alt season (pause for the laughter of skeptics).
Among the most notable: SIGN, TREE. By the way, we received TREE as an airdrop from Binance Square. And, like all assets received from them, we will sell them at the highs of the alt season (pause for the laughter of skeptics).
CryptoQuant: the derivatives market is putting significant pressure on the BTC price, but the spot is holding for now. The index from #CryptoQuant called the Bitcoin Derivatives Market Pressure Index has dropped to 30.5 - this is the lowest in 30 days, while #BTC is still around $88,000. To put it simply - selling pressure is increasing, but the price is not collapsing, which means that for now, sales are being "absorbed". Without leading to a crash.
Currently, the key support level, according to #CryptoQuant's assessment, is $86,400. Near this zone, judging by the price behavior, a certain large buyer (one or several large entities) is absorbing the flow of sellers. Then one of two scenarios:
- IF 86 400$ holds and the pressure from derivatives starts to decrease - the market gets fuel for a sharp rebound/short squeeze (because sellers have already "fired their bullets", and ultimately could not lower the price).
- IF 86 400$ breaks - this will be a signal that the strength of the large buyer was insufficient, and then support turns into resistance, and the downward movement accelerates due to liquidation inertia. A new bloody cascade.
Currently, the key support level, according to #CryptoQuant's assessment, is $86,400. Near this zone, judging by the price behavior, a certain large buyer (one or several large entities) is absorbing the flow of sellers. Then one of two scenarios:
- IF 86 400$ holds and the pressure from derivatives starts to decrease - the market gets fuel for a sharp rebound/short squeeze (because sellers have already "fired their bullets", and ultimately could not lower the price).
- IF 86 400$ breaks - this will be a signal that the strength of the large buyer was insufficient, and then support turns into resistance, and the downward movement accelerates due to liquidation inertia. A new bloody cascade.
BTC is in no hurry to show the impulse execution of two bullish patterns and is again testing an important zone
BTC is in no hurry to show the impulse execution of two bullish patterns and is again testing the zone 87,457-87,799$. We remind you of the "Dragon" with targets of 91,225$ and 95,531$ and the "Bullish Wedge" with a target of 95,840$. We wrote about them at night. They have been formed, but have not yet even executed the nearest target.
In recent days, we have repeatedly stated that 87,457-87,799$ is an important support level, under which the range of impulse movements is 84,485-87,799$. Last time, the breakout at 87,799$ cost liquidations for 200,000 traders and a price drop to 86,074$. Most of this journey was covered by a single hourly candle. After that, a strong signal of potential lows on the hourly timeframe started a rebound, which led to the formation of bullish patterns and the start of their execution.
In recent days, we have repeatedly stated that 87,457-87,799$ is an important support level, under which the range of impulse movements is 84,485-87,799$. Last time, the breakout at 87,799$ cost liquidations for 200,000 traders and a price drop to 86,074$. Most of this journey was covered by a single hourly candle. After that, a strong signal of potential lows on the hourly timeframe started a rebound, which led to the formation of bullish patterns and the start of their execution.
Santiment: the total market capitalization of the 12 largest stablecoins has decreased by $2.24 billion. Over the last 10 days. This coincided with a drop in #BTC of about -8%. Together, it indicates that this is not a flow from stablecoins to risky assets, but rather an outflow from the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Following #CryptoQuant, analysts at #Santiment also note the outflow of liquidity from stablecoins and the crypto market to traditional assets. In particular - the same gold and silver. The second chart from #Santiment today adds important context - on social media, the crowd's interest is shifting from crypto assets to metals. Initially, gold was "shooting up", now silver is already in hype - the crowd looks at where the "buzz" is.
This automatically cuts the quick purchasing power in the crypto market. After all, stablecoins are the basic liquidity for rebounds, and when their supply tightens, rebounds tend to be weak/short, and the market is harder to accelerate upwards. This is what we are observing now.
The capitalization of stablecoins is shrinking, and the market remains in a liquidity loss mode. And this is certainly an environment where altcoins struggle the most.
Following #CryptoQuant, analysts at #Santiment also note the outflow of liquidity from stablecoins and the crypto market to traditional assets. In particular - the same gold and silver. The second chart from #Santiment today adds important context - on social media, the crowd's interest is shifting from crypto assets to metals. Initially, gold was "shooting up", now silver is already in hype - the crowd looks at where the "buzz" is.
This automatically cuts the quick purchasing power in the crypto market. After all, stablecoins are the basic liquidity for rebounds, and when their supply tightens, rebounds tend to be weak/short, and the market is harder to accelerate upwards. This is what we are observing now.
The capitalization of stablecoins is shrinking, and the market remains in a liquidity loss mode. And this is certainly an environment where altcoins struggle the most.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant provides two opposing trends for the cryptocurrency market regarding stablecoins
On-chain data from CryptoQuant provides two opposing trends for the cryptocurrency market regarding stablecoins.
The first trend is that the total volume of stablecoins on the Ethereum network (ERC20) has begun to decline from its peak. This is evident in the first chart.
This, analysts emphasize, is a bearish signal: when the total supply of stablecoins is not increasing, it means that the influx of new dollar liquidity into the cryptocurrency market is weakening. When supply decreases and this occurs in a declining market, it means that stablecoins are being burned, and liquidity is being withdrawn from the market. There is a logical opinion that this is due to the outflow of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market to the gold and silver market, where bullish madness continues.
The first trend is that the total volume of stablecoins on the Ethereum network (ERC20) has begun to decline from its peak. This is evident in the first chart.
This, analysts emphasize, is a bearish signal: when the total supply of stablecoins is not increasing, it means that the influx of new dollar liquidity into the cryptocurrency market is weakening. When supply decreases and this occurs in a declining market, it means that stablecoins are being burned, and liquidity is being withdrawn from the market. There is a logical opinion that this is due to the outflow of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market to the gold and silver market, where bullish madness continues.
The bill on the structure of the crypto market will be considered by the U.S. Senate committee not on January 27, but on January 29
Correction to the calendar for the week - the bill on the structure of the crypto market will be considered by the U.S. Senate committee not on January 27, but on January 29. The meeting has been postponed, today is canceled. However, on January 29, there will be both this meeting and a lot of macro data. It will be a volatile day.
The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a meeting specifically on January 29, and the agenda on its website clearly states the bill "On Intermediaries in the Digital Goods Market" (Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act). The meeting is scheduled for 10:30 AM Washington time (5:30 PM Kyiv / 6:30 PM MSK / 8:30 PM Astana).
The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a meeting specifically on January 29, and the agenda on its website clearly states the bill "On Intermediaries in the Digital Goods Market" (Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act). The meeting is scheduled for 10:30 AM Washington time (5:30 PM Kyiv / 6:30 PM MSK / 8:30 PM Astana).
Matrixport: Why are central banks buying gold and why does this now look like negative advertising for BTC
Matrixport: Why are central banks buying gold - and why does this now look like negative advertising for BTC.
The "gold rush" has led cryptocurrency traders to start trading precious metals, while cryptocurrency analysts are analyzing precious metals.
In the new report from #Matrixport, the chart shows a divergence: gold is reaching new highs, while BTC is declining during the same period and trading around $88,000.
The "gold rush" has led cryptocurrency traders to start trading precious metals, while cryptocurrency analysts are analyzing precious metals.
In the new report from #Matrixport, the chart shows a divergence: gold is reaching new highs, while BTC is declining during the same period and trading around $88,000.
Complete economic calendar of events from January 26 to February 1, 2026, that could influence the cryptocurrency market.
Complete economic calendar of events from January 26 to February 1, 2026, that could influence the cryptocurrency market.
This week is crucial for the entire month because tomorrow, on Wednesday, there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate. Although no one expects an interest rate cut, both the announcement of the decision and the accompanying letter/speech by Powell can lead to increased volatility. In a consensus of expectations regarding the rate, the greatest volatility is again expected during the speech of the Fed chair.
This week is crucial for the entire month because tomorrow, on Wednesday, there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate. Although no one expects an interest rate cut, both the announcement of the decision and the accompanying letter/speech by Powell can lead to increased volatility. In a consensus of expectations regarding the rate, the greatest volatility is again expected during the speech of the Fed chair.
The closure of the 2-day candle has preserved the chances for a bull market
The closure of the 2-day candle has preserved the chances for a bull market. But this is a story of "winning the battle, but not the war." At least for now.
At the start of trading on the market on January 27, we see growth, which was predicted on January 26, when we wrote that immediately 30 assets from the TOP-200 showed a potential buy signal on the 12-hour timeframe.
At the start of trading on the market on January 27, we see growth, which was predicted on January 26, when we wrote that immediately 30 assets from the TOP-200 showed a potential buy signal on the 12-hour timeframe.
CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years
CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years. Real pain, people exited positions at a loss and the scale of this process is impressive.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
The average duration of the BTC/gold bear market is about 14 months, and they are coming to an end.
The average duration of the BTC/gold bear market is about 14 months, and they are coming to an end. Such data is provided by #Bitwise.
But before discussing the details, it should be reminded here again that Bitwise is an interested party, the issuer of spot crypto-ETFs. They are always ready to talk about the fabulous prospects of the crypto market.
But before discussing the details, it should be reminded here again that Bitwise is an interested party, the issuer of spot crypto-ETFs. They are always ready to talk about the fabulous prospects of the crypto market.
The US is once again on the brink of a shutdown - a halt to government operations
The US is once again on the brink of a shutdown - a halt to government operations. As #Bloomberg reminds us, this could start as early as January 31.
Democrats threaten to block the spending package if Republicans do not remove funding for DHS (Department of Homeland Security). The reason for the escalation is the scandal surrounding the actions of border agents/ICE in Minnesota and deaths during protests. To get the bill through the Senate, at least 7 Democratic votes are needed, but some moderates have already said 'no.'
Democrats threaten to block the spending package if Republicans do not remove funding for DHS (Department of Homeland Security). The reason for the escalation is the scandal surrounding the actions of border agents/ICE in Minnesota and deaths during protests. To get the bill through the Senate, at least 7 Democratic votes are needed, but some moderates have already said 'no.'
Glassnode: BTC is currently trading on the edge of the key "market cost price"
Glassnode: BTC is currently trading on the edge of the key "market cost price". The asset's price has fallen to 87 300$ - exactly into the average buying zone of active participants, but still below the cost price of short-term holders. This is a classic zone where the market decides: either a rebound and stabilization, or continued pressure and a move to the next support.
BTC dominance confirms the likelihood of a continued market rebound - there is a steady downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe. It is hard to believe that dominance can decrease in a falling market.
Everything important regarding this metric has already been said last night. Now, it is important, as before, not to settle above the level of 59.88%. And on the 2-day timeframe, it is crucial to start declining from two potential high markers.
And all of this will still be insufficient. Because for a full-fledged growth of altcoins, we need to see:
- stable downtrends of #BTC dominance on timeframes of at least 12 hours and above,
- a breakout of the level of 58.08% and a consolidation below.
Everything important regarding this metric has already been said last night. Now, it is important, as before, not to settle above the level of 59.88%. And on the 2-day timeframe, it is crucial to start declining from two potential high markers.
And all of this will still be insufficient. Because for a full-fledged growth of altcoins, we need to see:
- stable downtrends of #BTC dominance on timeframes of at least 12 hours and above,
- a breakout of the level of 58.08% and a consolidation below.
BTC finally confirms the start of a rebound with a significant trend. Our indicator has just shown a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe for the asset, with target levels of $88,391, $88,859, $89,326. The potential breakdown level is $87,223.
To achieve these targets, it is essential to break above the 50 EMA on the hourly timeframe and hold above it. This moving average has consistently acted as an insurmountable resistance since January 15 (!), showing only one significant fake breakout to the upside on January 23.
As we can see, during yesterday’s decline, #BTC once again demonstrated strong signals of a potential low on the hourly timeframe. These are the strongest extreme markers that our indicator shows.
Some may argue that the hourly timeframe is too minor to consider its signals as important - for such readers, we will provide a more complete picture - the hourly timeframe and trends on it since January 12.
To achieve these targets, it is essential to break above the 50 EMA on the hourly timeframe and hold above it. This moving average has consistently acted as an insurmountable resistance since January 15 (!), showing only one significant fake breakout to the upside on January 23.
As we can see, during yesterday’s decline, #BTC once again demonstrated strong signals of a potential low on the hourly timeframe. These are the strongest extreme markers that our indicator shows.
Some may argue that the hourly timeframe is too minor to consider its signals as important - for such readers, we will provide a more complete picture - the hourly timeframe and trends on it since January 12.
Checkonchain: The capitulation of "weak hands" in BTC has already begun.
As the price of #BTC fell to 86 000$ , short-term holders started to realize losses. This refers to the ratio of realized profit to realized loss among short-term holders (those who bought relatively recently). Right now, it is going deep into negative territory - meaning fresh participants are massively closing positions at a loss, unable to withstand the downturn.
Why is this important for the market? For two reasons:
- when short-term holders capitulate, downward pressure often slows down - sellers "burn out";
• simultaneously, this is a signal that the market is not yet in a phase of strength: any rebound can be sold by those who want to "at least break even".
Such spikes in realized losses often appear near a local bottom because that is where the "washing out" of overheated entries occurs. But, of course, no one can guarantee a reversal - if demand does not kick in, capitulation may enter a second wave.
The dry conclusion is that the drop to 86 000$ has already forced the short-term segment to surrender. Now the market will check if there is a real buyer below this level or if it was just the first series of "cleansing".
As the price of #BTC fell to 86 000$ , short-term holders started to realize losses. This refers to the ratio of realized profit to realized loss among short-term holders (those who bought relatively recently). Right now, it is going deep into negative territory - meaning fresh participants are massively closing positions at a loss, unable to withstand the downturn.
Why is this important for the market? For two reasons:
- when short-term holders capitulate, downward pressure often slows down - sellers "burn out";
• simultaneously, this is a signal that the market is not yet in a phase of strength: any rebound can be sold by those who want to "at least break even".
Such spikes in realized losses often appear near a local bottom because that is where the "washing out" of overheated entries occurs. But, of course, no one can guarantee a reversal - if demand does not kick in, capitulation may enter a second wave.
The dry conclusion is that the drop to 86 000$ has already forced the short-term segment to surrender. Now the market will check if there is a real buyer below this level or if it was just the first series of "cleansing".
Peter Brandt: BTC is heading to $66,800, cancellation - only a consolidation above $93,000.
Peter Brandt: BTC is heading to $66,800, cancellation - only a consolidation above $93,000.
The well-known analyst indicates in his new technical analysis that on the daily chart, the #BTC market has received another sell signal: the movement within the bearish channel appears to be complete, and the price remains below key resistances. Importantly, the author explicitly notes that charts can 'repaint' as new candles form, so this is not a verdict, but rather the current assessment of the structure.
The well-known analyst indicates in his new technical analysis that on the daily chart, the #BTC market has received another sell signal: the movement within the bearish channel appears to be complete, and the price remains below key resistances. Importantly, the author explicitly notes that charts can 'repaint' as new candles form, so this is not a verdict, but rather the current assessment of the structure.
Alphractal: the BTC market "hurts," but as the blockchain shows, this is not capitulation
Alphractal: the BTC market "hurts," but as the blockchain shows, this is not capitulation.
According to #Alphractal, the current correction of #BTC looks like a stage when the market has already cooled down after speculation, but has still not reached the classic "bottom of the cycle."
Firstly, NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) is decreasing but remains positive. NUPL, let us remind you, shows the state of BTC holders "on paper":
According to #Alphractal, the current correction of #BTC looks like a stage when the market has already cooled down after speculation, but has still not reached the classic "bottom of the cycle."
Firstly, NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) is decreasing but remains positive. NUPL, let us remind you, shows the state of BTC holders "on paper":
Santiment: After the pullback, the crypto market returned to the undervaluation zone, as seen in the 30-day MVRV
Santiment: After the pullback, the crypto market returned to the undervaluation zone, as seen in the 30-day MVRV.
#Santiment draws attention to a simple principle: the lower the 30-day MVRV, the less "overheating" there is, making it calmer to enter a position. The MVRV here is the ratio of the current price to the average purchase price of active participants over the last month. If the indicator goes negative, it means that most "average traders" are already at a loss, and the pressure to take profits decreases.
#Santiment draws attention to a simple principle: the lower the 30-day MVRV, the less "overheating" there is, making it calmer to enter a position. The MVRV here is the ratio of the current price to the average purchase price of active participants over the last month. If the indicator goes negative, it means that most "average traders" are already at a loss, and the pressure to take profits decreases.
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