周期捕手

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I am the "Cycle Catcher". Beyond the full screen of K-line charts and emotional calls, I only trade macro cycles and liquidity logic.

Today's market volatility scared off speculators, but it also serves as a touchstone for validating trading systems. Sending a red envelope 🧧🧧🧧, not for anything else, but to recharge a bit of "emotional value" for those who are still present and maintaining rationality as traders.

Remember: Volatility is the source of Alpha, and panic is often a smokescreen from the main forces. Don't fall before dawn, hold onto your chips.

After receiving the red envelope, give a follow. In the upcoming market trends, I will guide you through the bull and bear markets with data.

Gold $5050, Aircraft Carrier Enters the Middle East: The U in Your Hand is Turning into Waste Paper

This morning, after reading this batch of news, I only felt a chill run down my spine. If you still can't understand the current market situation, I suggest you take a look at the outside world and not just stare blankly at that one K line.

1. The Tombstone of Fiat Currency Credit: Gold $5050. The recently released data shows that spot gold has surpassed $5050, rising by $730 in a single month! Silver has also stabilized at $100. What does this indicate? It indicates that the smart money globally is frantically selling paper currency and buying 'hard assets' without regard for cost. In their eyes, fiat currency is already on a countdown.

2. The War Machine Starts: The aircraft carrier is in position. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group 'Lincoln' has arrived in the Middle East, and the Iranian military is on high alert. On one side, a geopolitical conflict is about to erupt, while on the other, the Federal Reserve may undergo a personnel change (BlackRock executive Rieder is gaining popularity). This is not just turmoil; it is a violent reorganization of the global financial order.

When gold is skyrocketing, the consolidation of $BTC is merely a temporary suppression, the calm before the storm. The overflow effect of funds is inevitable. Old money buys gold, new money buys Bitcoin.

The current consolidation is the last time window for those who have not yet exchanged U for chips. Don't wait until the cannon fire really starts, and due to panic, the on-chain congestion occurs before you remember to look for Noah's Ark. #BTC #周期捕手 #避险资产

Is BlackRock Taking Over the Federal Reserve? This Chart Reveals the Secret!

Stop staring at those boring interest rate cut news. The real 'ghost story' is hidden in this funding game chart from Polymarket.

1. What happened? Look at the chart. Just in the past few days, the blue line representing Rick Rieder shot up directly, with the probability soaring to 51%, leaving the previous favorite Kevin Warsh (30%) far behind. This is the result of $250 million in real cash being thrown into the game, and such a volume of funds doesn't lie.

2. Why is this important? Who is Rick Rieder? He is the Global Head of Fixed Income at BlackRock. What does it mean if he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve? It means 'BlackRock + Fed = The Golden Age of Crypto'. BlackRock is the great benefactor that pushed BTC into Wall Street; with their own people in power, will there be a lack of liquidity?

Hunter Logic: The market has already made a move. While everyone is still discussing the lagging indicator of 'not cutting interest rates for now', the smart money is already betting on the super favorable news of 'BlackRock Fed'.

The logic of this round of increase has changed. $BTC is not about rising inflation; it's about rising expectations of 'our people taking office'. #BTC #美联储何时降息？ #周期捕手

Is the risk of a government shutdown back again? This time, there's an added 'Japan variable'.

I just saw the news that the U.S. Senate is stirring things up again, vowing to obstruct funding, and the clouds of government shutdown are drifting back in.

Many brothers get excited when they hear 'shutdown', thinking it's a good sign. But don't rush to gamble; let me tell you the truth.

1. Don't forget the pain of 2025. Many only remember 'the shutdown as the starting point of a bull market' but conveniently forget the process. The first day of the shutdown in 2025 was a false signal, followed by a slow decline, and the worst was on the day it was announced to end, which led to a direct market crash. The current state is 'possible shutdown'; this uncertainty is exactly what the main players like as a tool for shaking out positions. If you purely gamble on a shutdown to open positions, you might easily get caught in the moment the news breaks.

2. The real game-changer is 'Tokyo'. The biggest difference this time compared to 2025 is Japan. On one side, the U.S. government may shut down (internal conflict), while on the other side, the Japanese Prime Minister is calling for currency rescue, and the U.S. Treasury is even preparing for joint intervention.

Do you understand the logic behind this?

Shutdown risk = Market panic, capital wants to flee.

Currency intervention = The U.S. must sell dollars to save the yen.

Hunter's strategy: Regardless of whether there is a shutdown or not, the major trend of a 'weak dollar' has already been forced out by Japan. The main players are currently using 'shutdown panic' to press down prices, which actually helps to build momentum for $BTC and $ETC .

Conclusion: Don't focus on news headlines to make trades. If in the next few days a deep pit is created due to 'concerns about a shutdown', remember, it's to facilitate the subsequent liquidity drama of 'selling dollars to save the yen'. If it dares to drop, I dare to buy. #BTC #周期捕手 #宏观分析

On one side, there is a collapse; on the other side, there is a crazy surge: the thunder of the old world is exploding one by one.

Tonight, don't just focus on the fluctuations of a few points in the cryptocurrency market. Look up and see what kind of earthquake is happening in the outside world.

1. The "head-chopping guillotine" of tech giants. Take a look at this daily chart of Intel. Once the chip overlord, it dropped 17% in one day. In this market of limited competition, if performance slightly misses expectations, funds will flee mercilessly. There is no faith to speak of.

2. The "powder keg" of the global bond market. Look at this inconspicuous chart — the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds. It has soared above 2.28%, hitting a 27-year high! Don’t underestimate it. Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. debt; when its own backyard catches fire, it will undoubtedly sell U.S. bonds to extinguish the flames. The global liquidity pump has been activated.

3. Where has the smart money gone? Old assets are collapsing, and the bond market is rumbling. Yet, funds have pushed silver up to $102. Even the “dead fish” of decades have turned over, what does this indicate? It indicates that panic funds are desperately seeking “hard assets.”

Hunter's logic: The traditional financial system is leaking everywhere. When both stocks and bonds are unsafe, funds will only flow to two places: one is the old gold and silver, and the other is the current digital gold $BTC .

The current fluctuations are just a facade. In the face of the torrent of fiat currency collapse, $BTC is also the only Noah's Ark. Those who understand this chart have already taken action.

#BTC #宏观分析 #避险资产 #日本国债

Silver is going crazy, the Treasury is getting anxious, are you still foolishly holding USDT?

I woke up this morning to see these two pieces of news, and the DNA of old investors was activated. This is not news; this is the fiat currency system sounding the alarm.

1. Silver surged 7% in one day, reaching 102 USD! Even more aggressive than gold. What does this indicate? It indicates that smart money no longer trusts paper currency and is frantically buying 'hard assets'.

2. The U.S. Treasury is preparing to 'rescue the yen'. According to reports from the New York Times, the Treasury is already inquiring about prices and preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market. To translate: the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars to boost the yen. Once they take action, the dollar index (DXY) will plummet.

The surge in silver is a symptom; the erosion of dollar credibility is the essence. When capital begins to disdain fiat currency, the first stop is gold and silver, and the second stop is $BTC .

The current market is a rotation of capital. Don't just focus on the fluctuations of those few points on the K-line; look at the outside world: money is becoming increasingly worthless, while the number of bitcoins is only 21 million.

Hold on to your chips tightly, don't fall before the night of the explosion.

#BTC #宏观分析 #去美元化 #周期捕手

4.2% dropped to 4%! The biggest thunderstorm tonight has been dismantled

Did you see the data at 23:00 just now? I don't pay attention to the inflated consumer confidence (56.4), I only focus on one core indicator: one-year inflation expectations.

Previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%, the result announced was only 4.0%!

Brothers, this is the real good news tonight. Previously, the market was most afraid of inflation not coming down, and the Federal Reserve had to continue raising interest rates. Now the expectations have dropped, and the rope around the Federal Reserve's neck has instantly loosened. Plus, the PMI at 22:45 (51.9 and 52.5) was also lower than expected, indicating that the economy is not so "feverish", just right.

The macro pressure has actually been released at this moment. Although the liquidity was poor on Friday night, this set of data has provided an excellent foundation for the weekend market of $BTC . As long as inflation expectations do not rise, the bears will not dare to be too arrogant.

Don't be scared by the ups and downs in the market, data can't lie: the wind has turned warmer, hold on. #通胀 #宏观数据

In the past 24 hours, Trump has thrown 14 grenades at the world.

After reading Jin Shi's summary, my scalp tingled. What Trump accomplished in just one day is more than what others do in a year.

Take a look at the signals hidden in this list:

Suicide lawsuit against JPMorgan: Claiming $5 billion, citing that the bank engaged in 'political discrimination' and closed his account.

Pressuring the Federal Reserve: Testing the Supreme Court, hoping to regain the power to dismiss Federal Reserve governors.

Geopolitical pressure: The fleet is heading to Iran and is looking to buy Greenland.

Do you understand the logic behind it? He is yanking the tablecloth out from under the old world. Even former presidents can be 'pulled off the grid' by banks; is your money in the bank really absolutely safe? Even the independence of the Federal Reserve is precarious; how long can the purchasing power of the dollar last?

The more turbulent the world is, the more it is filled with 'man-made interventions,' making decentralized assets even more precious.

At this time, if you don't allocate a bit of $BTC for self-defense, are you really planning to hold onto fiat currency waiting to be harvested by inflation, or waiting for the day your account gets frozen?

Chaos is a ladder. This level of systemic risk is often the best catalyst for $BTC .#下任美联储主席会是谁？ #BTC

Don't rush to pop the champagne, there are still two "hidden knives" tonight.

Last night's GDP negative news was held up by $BTC . Many people think it's stable, so they start calling for a rapid return of the bull? Too naive.

As a hunter, I must remind you: Friday's night trading is often more dangerous than Thursday.

There are two time points tonight, set your alarms:

⏰ 22:45 PMI initial value If the data is still above 52, it indicates that the U.S. economy really is not 'landing'. The dollar will remain strong, and the cryptocurrency market will continue to struggle.

⏰ 23:00 Inflation expectations (the main event) This is the big thunder. Previous value 4.2%, expectations still 4.2%. If the public thinks inflation will still be above 4% next year, do you think the Federal Reserve dares to cut interest rates?

Hunter's note: Today is Friday, institutions are off work, and liquidity is at its thinnest. At such times, when data is released, the main players love to play the **'up and down needle'** trick. After squeezing out the short positions, they squeeze out the long positions, and in the end, the closing price remains the same.

The strategy is simple: Don't gamble on direction before 23:00. Watch the 15-minute chart of $BTC , and if it doesn't break last night's low of 87,000, then that will be the real weekend celebration. Right now? Just watch the show. #宏观数据 #周期捕手