葉問打饼YynOne11

More than a week, 4wU has reached 10wU, recently my trading has been hot, continuously making profits, always gaining, my bull has arrived, the air force has been living well during this time.
Still the same saying, remember to withdraw the principal after making a profit, use the earnings to keep running.
I have always insisted that bull and bear markets do not alternate; they coexist, just manifesting on different time scales. What we need to do is stay in a rhythm we are familiar with, striking hard at the drowning dogs🤑$ETH #加密市场回调

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百倍暴富如浮云，笑到最后才是赢！

The celebratory wine has been prepared for Huazi,
Do not get too inflated too early,
Make sure to do well with Ethereum,
Return to China to meet the hometown elders.🤭$ETH #ETH走势分析

The fluctuations after the initial drop began on the 21st and lasted until the 25th without any capital accumulation for four days, occasionally seeing around 100 million in funds (to have a decent rebound, the amount of accumulation capital must be at least 300-400 million to barely count, and the more the better for stability), which quickly fled. Additionally, there are very few cases of fund movements like $BTC , which indicates that the main force has no intention of accumulating funds at this stage, suggesting a bearish bias.

So, does this mean it will definitely drop soon? Not necessarily; continue to follow my analysis. Another scenario is that the selling pressure has become very small at the end (or this position is a strong support level; 94/90/86/82 are all strong support levels, while the recent consolidation at 88 is not considered a strong support level). The main force might slightly push up (what we commonly refer to as 'injecting'), taking out the short positions above before dropping again.

This probability is not small; injecting is a very common occurrence. So, I say it's hard to determine in the short term which direction the market will go, but ultimately it will still trend downward (recent short-term analysis), because the main force for BTC has not entered to accumulate, and it can only go down until accumulation occurs to stabilize.

The market's movements are the final result of the participation of the main force and market funds, and the funds from the main force are often more indicative because they are the market makers. #BTC走势分析

Let's talk about the recent market of $BTC . Just looking at the trend structure, it really isn't doing well anymore.
Before any new variables appear, further declines remain the path with a higher probability.

For the next wave of truly significant extreme positions for BTC, I personally lean towards around 60,000, while 60,000–80,000 is more likely to be a range that requires repeated digestion, and the duration won't be too short.

As for $ETH and other assets, I won't elaborate on the analysis.
The reality is that when Bitcoin is doing well, they may not be doing that great either...
When BTC is not doing well, things can only get worse.

From the current position, unless a major variable appears that can change the funding structure.
For example, if gold holders show a clear shift, throwing away gold to buy BTC...
Or some truly unexpected positive news that can reshape market narratives,
Creating a situation where "a single bullish line changes perspectives," otherwise, the difficulty of moving upwards is actually quite significant.

To be honest, this round of the bull market itself is quite terrible.
The structural changes in the crypto market are too significant.

Halving, ETFs, institutional entry, the U.S. president supporting trades, pathways to compliance...
These once highly anticipated positive factors have basically been fully digested in this round.

Now that we are really entering a bear market, I currently can't find a better expectation worth continuing to 'recharge' at this position.

Most newcomers who entered this round have been directly skinned... playing without a sound. Those who can still remain in the market are now quite savvy.

In the past, you could make enough money in crypto with a high risk-reward ratio, which is why I dared to go almost all-in on the crypto circle, even rarely considering other asset allocations.

But after this round, one thing has become increasingly clear: when the profit margins in crypto are no longer significantly different from other markets, and the risks are even higher, in the future, a more rational and comprehensive diversified allocation will definitely be needed.

It's not that I don't have confidence in the crypto market, but it is no longer the same as before
'a single track, high profit rates' market. #加密市场观察

从技术结构看，$BTC 比特币在触及86000后虽反弹至87900附近，但整体仍处于偏空格局。当前价格再次进入87500-88000的关键阻力区，该区域是前期下跌的起始位置，且4小时图表呈现量价背离与指标疲态，反弹动能持续性存疑。若无法有效站稳88000上方，可能形成次高点下移的看跌结构。

若反弹在此区域遇阻，下方首要支撑关注86000凌晨低点，破位后将确认反弹结束并开启新一轮下行。中期关键支撑位于85000-84500区间，该位置对应日线EMA30及前期整理平台下沿，失守后可能加速下探82000-81500区域。#内容挖矿焕新公测开启 $BTC #BTC走势分析

Recently, the market has been falling, and almost all cryptocurrencies are in a correction. However, RIVER has been rising against the trend, continuously hitting new highs.
$RIVER during the pump process, the bn contract has maintained a negative fee rate for a long time. The project team can go long on the contract + eat the fee rate, and then use the fees earned every hour to buy on-chain spot and hold it. This way, even if it doesn't need to blow up the opponent's position, it can still cut losses with a blunt knife and force the shorts to surrender.
So now, we really cannot blindly short. As long as you short, in the long run, you are basically losing. The correct approach now is to pay close attention to its funding rate, whether it will return to normal levels, and if it returns to normal levels, you can try a short position. #river

Er Bing 2908 current price Qing Cang Kong, just charge, the callback is Kong $ETH #ETH走势分析

The current price of the pancake is 879 Qing Cang Kong, 888 for defensive replenishment 890
The weekend unexpectedly brought a big fluctuation; the shipping information came too late, and I missed it. The weekly K line directly closed with a big bearish line at 86600. The 6-hour level made a small rebound yesterday, and the 12-hour level touched the bottom. Currently, the trend looks a bit complicated, like a large box. Time is a bit grinding; the direction is still unknown. The old thought process, pullback Kong it for one hand $BTC
#BTC走势分析

Why do 90% of traders ultimately become cannon fodder?
The root cause is not poor technology, but rather that they have never grasped the underlying survival laws of trading.

The first lesson of trading is never about teaching you how to make money, but rather how to survive. Holding a hundred thousand in full margin, even a small fluctuation in the market can completely liquidate you.

Professional traders would never be this reckless. For them, the first step in trading is setting a stop loss, and the second step is executing that stop loss with iron discipline— the day discipline fails is the day their trading career ends. There are always those who believe in being “bold”, relying on leverage to chase after huge profits; in my view, this is not courage at all, but rather a gamble with their trading future in a joke with no chance of winning. True experts always confine risk within what they can bear, and then, through the accumulation of small wins, step by step, they move towards long-term profitability.

This is the harsh truth of the trading market: temporary profits are meaningless; being able to survive through the fluctuations of the market is the real skill.
Most people fail because they mistakenly take technology as the core. But technology is something that can be replicated; no matter who teaches it, the core will hardly differ. What truly distinguishes traders is the person themselves— it is the discipline ingrained in their bones, the execution power to follow through on what they say, and the perseverance to force themselves to stick to those “things they don’t want to do but must do” day after day.

Have you reviewed your trades according to plan today? Have you taken the time to read two pages of trading books? Have you resisted those seemingly tempting ineffective opportunities? If you don’t even have this basic level of execution, how can you expect to stand firm in the ruthless trading market?
The market never rewards clever tricks; it only favors cold-blooded persistence. To endure what others cannot in solitude, to withstand what others cannot in drawdowns, is how you gain the profits that are forever out of reach for others.

Human nature is greedy for speed; you must learn to slow down. Human nature tends to evade; you must face problems head-on. Human nature always wants to gamble; you must firmly hold onto the stop loss bottom line.
The trading market has never been anyone's treasury, but rather a battlefield without gunpowder. Only by managing risk can one survive; only by surviving can one slowly win. $ETH #加密市场观察

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated that there is significant uncertainty regarding when core inflation will reach the central bank's target of 2%. These comments highlight the growing concerns within the BOJ about persistent inflation dynamics and the ongoing gap between current price trends and policy objectives.

Ueda's cautious tone reflects the complex situation faced by major central banks in addressing inflation in the post-pandemic period. Rather than conveying signals of rapid convergence, the BOJ Governor's remarks suggest that core CPI will remain below target levels for an extended period—this is a critical shift in policy messaging with far-reaching implications for the direction of monetary policy.

For participants in the cryptocurrency market, such macroeconomic signals are particularly important. Ongoing poor inflation performance could reshape market expectations regarding interest rate policy, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite that drives demand for alternative assets. When major central banks express uncertainty about achieving inflation targets, it typically leads to an extension of accommodative policies or at least a delay in tightening cycles.

The BOJ's dilemma in achieving its inflation target reflects the challenges faced by central banks in other developed economies. This synchronization uncertainty among major monetary authorities creates a backdrop where the market remains sensitive to any new economic data or policy comments, potentially altering the narrative around inflation. $BTC #日本加息

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is about to be announced, and this movement may have a considerable impact on the global digital asset market.

Why is this meeting so important? History provides us with the answer. Last December, when the Bank of Japan merely released a hawkish signal, the price of BTC fell by over 10%. In an earlier policy shift, the market even experienced a 30% drop. This is not a small fluctuation, but a real systemic risk.

The core logic is quite simple: yen carry trade. For a long time, global financial institutions have taken advantage of Japan's low-interest rate environment to borrow yen at nearly zero cost and then invest those funds into high-risk assets like $BTC in U.S. stocks. How large is this amount of money? It's enough to change the structure of market liquidity. Once the Bank of Japan decides to tighten its policy, these borrowed yen must be paid back immediately. What is the result? Hundreds of billions of dollars are forced out of the crypto market, and BTC can only face passive selling.
Investors are presented with a clear binary choice:
If the Bank of Japan adopts a hawkish stance (raises interest rates), carry trades will be quickly unwound, and BTC may directly fall to 90,000, 80,000, or even lower levels. The depletion of liquidity will accelerate this process.

If the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance (keeps low interest rates), market sentiment will immediately reverse, and the FOMO effect may drive BTC towards the 100,000 mark. However, such an increase is often built on a very fragile liquidity foundation.

The key question is: Can you really predict the central bank's choice accurately? On-chain data shows that large holders have been quietly adjusting their positions—some institutions are reducing their holdings, hedging risks, and lowering leverage. What do these actions indicate? They indicate that smart money in the market is preparing for the worst-case scenario.

This is not a gamble you can control. Changes in central bank policy are usually sudden, and the market's reaction is often more severe than expected. Before the Bank of Japan's final decision is made, you still have a window of time to review your positions. Ask yourself: Is your current holding ratio really capable of withstanding a drop of more than 30%? Is your risk management strategy already in place?
On the eve of the storm, the choice is in your hands. #日本加息

Many traders who were clearly doing well suddenly encounter a drawdown and then end up collapsing in their trading! The longer you trade, the more you understand one thing: in cryptocurrency trading, the opponent is not the market, not the big players, not the news, and not other traders.

You are your only opponent, and that opponent is yesterday's you.

If you wake up every day and find that you understand a bit more about cycles than yesterday, have a bit more patience, make one less impulsive trade, and are more clearly aware of when to attack and when to defend, then no matter how your account balance fluctuates, you have already won.

True growth is being closer today than yesterday to that ideal trader: rational, disciplined, goal-oriented, and rhythmic.

Progress is not measured by size, and goals are not measured by height. As long as you are still moving forward and breaking through past limitations, that is the best.

The most brutal battlefield in the cryptocurrency world is not in the candlestick charts, but in your cognition and mindset. Win over yourself, and the whole world will make way for you. $ETH #加密市场观察

Many people ask, why can we still make a stable profit when the market crashes? There really is no secret; it's just repeatedly validating the most basic technical analysis methods. The case of rolling a small account into a large account has been verified countless times.
The core logic of this method is actually very simple: a three-layer funnel of fundamental screening + technical confirmation + strict risk control. It sounds easy, but not many can execute it well.

First layer: Market heat screening

Take out the cryptocurrencies that have risen the most in the last 11 trading days to look at them separately. But that's not enough—at the same time, we need to exclude those that have already fallen for more than 3 consecutive days. These coins usually represent capital fleeing, the trend has already weakened, and there is no need to catch the falling knife. The remaining ones are the true targets that are being pursued by capital.

Second layer: Monthly level confirmation

Open the monthly candlestick chart and only pay attention to the coins with a MACD golden cross. Simple and straightforward, but effective. After the golden cross forms, see if it can hold on during the first pullback—if it doesn't break down, it indicates a clear bullish intent. Coins with a death cross should be completely avoided; that is the bottom line.

Third layer: Daily level precise entry

Switch to the daily chart and focus on the 60-day moving average. When the coin price pulls back near this line and there is a spike in volume with a bullish candle or a long lower shadow, the signal of major activity is very clear. At this time, the probability of entering heavily is relatively high. But if there is no accompanying volume, even if it looks perfect, we have to wait—it's better to miss out than to force it.

Risk control is everything

After entering, the 60-day moving average is the only stop-loss line. Sell one-third when it rises to 30% to secure some profit. Sell another one-third when it rises to 50% to continue locking in gains. If it falls below the 60-day moving average the next day, exit completely without any room for negotiation.

This logic with dual confirmation from the monthly and daily levels has a sufficiently high winning rate, with obvious low-risk characteristics. But the premise is that risk control must be regarded as the most important thing in trading, rather than profit. $BTC #加密市场观察

Why is it difficult for retail investors to make money in the cryptocurrency space?

It's not because they don't work hard,
but because they simply can't wait.

Rich people have 10 million in their accounts, earning 10% in a market wave translates to 1 million.
It doesn't affect their lives; they aren't in a hurry to prove themselves.

But retail investors only have 100,000. Even if they earn 10,000, it won't fill the gaps in their lives.
They start trading frantically, looking for opportunities every day, hoping the market will provide a paycheck like a job.

The end result is often:
The more anxious, the more mistakes; the more they trade, the more they lose.

What truly destroys them is not the market, but the pressure of life + trading anxiety.
They mistakenly believe that trading equals labor; if they don't trade, there’s no income, and if they don't win, they can't survive.
But true experts never operate on a daily winning rhythm.
Instead, they wait for the right moment to strike big.
When trends come, they dare to invest heavily, to take risks, and to hold; after the tide recedes, they stay out of the market, rest, and refine their skills.

Retail investors have too low a margin for error; one mistake can be devastating, and their mindset naturally cannot stabilize.
Wealth never enters through urgent doors.
The relaxation of the rich is not because they are smarter, but because they have a foundation, a way out, and time…$BTC #加密市场观察

The longer you mix in Web3, the more you can see a heart-wrenching phenomenon: too many people around you have their eyes glued to the market every day, cheering when Bitcoin rises and sighing when it falls. They get caught up in these macro trends yet take little actual action. To be honest, this approach offers very limited help for real returns.

Many people ask, is there still an opportunity? The answer is yes, and there are quite a few.

Even if the current market is adjusting sharply or even entering a down cycle, there are still plenty of localized opportunities hidden in this market—new tracks, new strategies, undervalued projects. The key is whether you are willing to climb out of the quagmire of macro predictions and turn around to seek out these things that can truly leverage returns. Rather than getting entangled in the concepts of bull and bear markets, it is better to abandon these meaningless obsessions and focus your energy on discovering genuinely valuable opportunities.

The survival rules in a bear market are actually quite simple. When the overall environment is declining and mainstream assets are shrinking, as long as you protect your capital with skills and localized opportunities, and even achieve positive growth, when the market rebounds, you will naturally be the biggest winner.

Those who are truly active in the market are never burdened by the fluctuations of Bitcoin. What do they do? They continuously focus on where the opportunities are, where the hotspots are, and how to implement them. They put their energy into things that can keep them making money.

When the moment the wind comes, you will be the one who laughs last. $BTC #加密市场观察