BeyOglu - The Analyst
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🔶X: @Beyoglu124 | Crypto enthusiast since 2019, sharing insights on market trends, News and Events.
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$XAG on its goal to printing green candles. Whoever trading silver $XAG my suggestion is to avoid playing leverage for today. As the FOMC is going to happen today and it can cause higher volatility.
Specially as the rates odds are low.
Rest is your choice whatever you do.
Specially as the rates odds are low.
Rest is your choice whatever you do.
BREAKING: THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS INEVITABLE!
THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS INEVITABLE! And it's already happening RIGHT NOW!
USD lost about 13% of its value during 2025.
Why? Because they've lost the lead.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when the currency bleeds like that, everything else is just the next chapter.
Shutdown.Debt.Repo stress.De dollarization.
It's all connected. Now look at what's happening.The government is days away from a shutdown, and the White House is in chaos.
Why? Because they lost control AGAIN.
They hate what they can't control, and they know there's no clean fix for the mess that's building.
They'll try to feed you the usual line that "everything is fine". But people don't buy it anymore.
Lies only work for so long. And when the truth finally hits, the crash will be far more violent than if they'd been honest from the start.
THE PATTERNS ARE SCREAMING 2008.
The Fed's emergency repo facility just spiked.
Private lenders are getting tight with each other again.
That's exactly how it looked before Lehman.
The S&P 500 to gold ratio just broke a key support level.
The last time we saw that, risk got smoked.
The Sahm Rule is back in the danger zone.
End of 2025 was already flirting with 0.35% to 0.50%.
THE MATH DOES NOT ADD UP.
Over $800B in commercial real estate debt matures this year.
Rates are still high, and the buildings are worth way less than the loans.
Banks are already pushing this risk out the back door for cheap.
Now add the chaos at the top.
On January 11, 2026, the DOJ opened a criminal investigation into Powell over his testimony on the $2.5B Fed renovations.
Powell's calling it punishment for resisting the White House on rates.
Meanwhile, consumers are cracking.
Credit card delinquencies 90+ days past due are hitting levels not seen since 2011.
Auto loans and credit cards are sliding into serious delinquency.
Some reports show total household debt around $18.5T into late 2025 and early 2026.
And businesses aren't safe either.
Bankruptcy filings are up around 12% year over year going into 2026.
Middle market companies are staring at a wall of debt they can't refinance at these rates.
But the real story is de dollarization.
The USD used to be the undisputed reserve.
Now, in 2026, most trade between Russia, China, and India is settled without it.
With the government unable to handle $1T in interest payments, they're trapped.
Inflate it away, or let the system break.
Basically, THEY HAVE NO PLAN.
I'm not trying to scare you.
I'm warning you so you can survive it.
If you're smart, this is your one shot at generational wealth.
BUT YOU MUST GET RID OF YOUR USD.
The biggest wealth transfer in human history is coming FAST.
I did my job by warning you.
The rest is up to you.
#FedWatch
USD lost about 13% of its value during 2025.
Why? Because they've lost the lead.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when the currency bleeds like that, everything else is just the next chapter.
Shutdown.Debt.Repo stress.De dollarization.
It's all connected. Now look at what's happening.The government is days away from a shutdown, and the White House is in chaos.
Why? Because they lost control AGAIN.
They hate what they can't control, and they know there's no clean fix for the mess that's building.
They'll try to feed you the usual line that "everything is fine". But people don't buy it anymore.
Lies only work for so long. And when the truth finally hits, the crash will be far more violent than if they'd been honest from the start.
THE PATTERNS ARE SCREAMING 2008.
The Fed's emergency repo facility just spiked.
Private lenders are getting tight with each other again.
That's exactly how it looked before Lehman.
The S&P 500 to gold ratio just broke a key support level.
The last time we saw that, risk got smoked.
The Sahm Rule is back in the danger zone.
End of 2025 was already flirting with 0.35% to 0.50%.
THE MATH DOES NOT ADD UP.
Over $800B in commercial real estate debt matures this year.
Rates are still high, and the buildings are worth way less than the loans.
Banks are already pushing this risk out the back door for cheap.
Now add the chaos at the top.
On January 11, 2026, the DOJ opened a criminal investigation into Powell over his testimony on the $2.5B Fed renovations.
Powell's calling it punishment for resisting the White House on rates.
Meanwhile, consumers are cracking.
Credit card delinquencies 90+ days past due are hitting levels not seen since 2011.
Auto loans and credit cards are sliding into serious delinquency.
Some reports show total household debt around $18.5T into late 2025 and early 2026.
And businesses aren't safe either.
Bankruptcy filings are up around 12% year over year going into 2026.
Middle market companies are staring at a wall of debt they can't refinance at these rates.
But the real story is de dollarization.
The USD used to be the undisputed reserve.
Now, in 2026, most trade between Russia, China, and India is settled without it.
With the government unable to handle $1T in interest payments, they're trapped.
Inflate it away, or let the system break.
Basically, THEY HAVE NO PLAN.
I'm not trying to scare you.
I'm warning you so you can survive it.
If you're smart, this is your one shot at generational wealth.
BUT YOU MUST GET RID OF YOUR USD.
The biggest wealth transfer in human history is coming FAST.
I did my job by warning you.
The rest is up to you.
#FedWatch
#Ethereum nears key resistance zone.
Ethereum price started the week on a positive note, recovering 7.62% by Tuesday after a massive 14.22% correction the previous week. As of Wednesday, $ETH is nearing the key resistance level at $3,017.
If ETH breaks above the daily resistance at $3,017 and closes above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,101 on a daily basis, it could extend the rally toward the January 14 high at $3,402.
The RSI and MACD indicators show fading bearish momentum, suggesting a potential near-term recovery.
However, if ETH faces a correction, it could extend the decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,749
Ethereum price started the week on a positive note, recovering 7.62% by Tuesday after a massive 14.22% correction the previous week. As of Wednesday, $ETH is nearing the key resistance level at $3,017.
If ETH breaks above the daily resistance at $3,017 and closes above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,101 on a daily basis, it could extend the rally toward the January 14 high at $3,402.
The RSI and MACD indicators show fading bearish momentum, suggesting a potential near-term recovery.
However, if ETH faces a correction, it could extend the decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,749
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 S&P 500 closes at new all-time high of 6,978
Stocks, Gold $XAU and Silver $XAG making all time high.
Here is our Bitcoin 🤡🤡🤡.
No alts season in 1st quarter if Powell will not cut rates.
Stocks, Gold $XAU and Silver $XAG making all time high.
Here is our Bitcoin 🤡🤡🤡.
No alts season in 1st quarter if Powell will not cut rates.
Gold Powers Above $5,000 as Debasement Trade Gathers Pace.
Gold $XAU rose, holding above $5,000 an ounce for a second day, as geopolitical risks and a flight from sovereign bonds and currencies extended the metal’s rally.
Bullion climbed as much as 1.9% on Tuesday for a seventh straight day of gains, while silver jumped more than 9% before paring gains in US trading. A wave of investment demand has sent precious metals sharply higher this month, with silver up 50% since the start of January. Gold and platinum have also posted significant advances.
Gold $XAU rose, holding above $5,000 an ounce for a second day, as geopolitical risks and a flight from sovereign bonds and currencies extended the metal’s rally.
Bullion climbed as much as 1.9% on Tuesday for a seventh straight day of gains, while silver jumped more than 9% before paring gains in US trading. A wave of investment demand has sent precious metals sharply higher this month, with silver up 50% since the start of January. Gold and platinum have also posted significant advances.
Bitcoin to #silver ratio.
The bitcoin to silver ratio currently stands near 780. This is now below the 2017 peak when bitcoin hit $20,000 and now close to the level seen in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 as the ratio fell to around 700. Such convergence suggests silver may be entering a more vulnerable phase relative to bitcoin.
Silver has surged nearly 300% over the past year. On Monday, silver fell almost 15% after rising by a similar amount earlier in the session, briefly reaching highs near $117 per ounce before pulling back to around $112.
Previous local tops in silver have tended to cluster around the early part of the calendar year, with most occurring in the first half of the year. Notable examples include February 1974 and January 1980 which marked a clear blow off top at $47, February 1983, May 1987, February 1998, April 2004, May 2006, March 2008, and April 2011 at $50 which was also a blow off phase.
This historical pattern raises a potential red flag on silver's price action, if history is repeating itself, the precious metal may have reached its cycle peak, or even a blow off top.
The bitcoin to silver ratio currently stands near 780. This is now below the 2017 peak when bitcoin hit $20,000 and now close to the level seen in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 as the ratio fell to around 700. Such convergence suggests silver may be entering a more vulnerable phase relative to bitcoin.
Silver has surged nearly 300% over the past year. On Monday, silver fell almost 15% after rising by a similar amount earlier in the session, briefly reaching highs near $117 per ounce before pulling back to around $112.
Previous local tops in silver have tended to cluster around the early part of the calendar year, with most occurring in the first half of the year. Notable examples include February 1974 and January 1980 which marked a clear blow off top at $47, February 1983, May 1987, February 1998, April 2004, May 2006, March 2008, and April 2011 at $50 which was also a blow off phase.
This historical pattern raises a potential red flag on silver's price action, if history is repeating itself, the precious metal may have reached its cycle peak, or even a blow off top.
🚨New crypto scam 🚨
If someone messages you asking you to join a Teams Live link, and that link contains “setup” steps telling you to run commands in your terminal, it’s a scam.
Do not run anything.
Close the page, report the account, and warn others.
Stay safe!
#SAFU🙏
If someone messages you asking you to join a Teams Live link, and that link contains “setup” steps telling you to run commands in your terminal, it’s a scam.
Do not run anything.
Close the page, report the account, and warn others.
Stay safe!
#SAFU🙏
Ethereum Price Prediction: Sideways Now, But When This Breaks… $ETH Could Go Straight to $5K.
Crypto investor Jelle highlighted how Bitcoin remains above its weekly support, while macroeconomic conditions are evolving in a way that will ultimately drive demand for BTC.
As such, Jelle plans to hold his BTC and wait for the eventual rally, with the investor offering a similar assessment for Ethereum.
As noted above, the investor expects Ethereum to outperform the market average once things become more bullish, although he admits that if it drops below the $2,500 support level he may “have to re-assess.”
If we look at the Ethereum price chart today, we see that it may be nearing a big move, with a pennant forming since October.
Its RSI (yellow) and MACD (orange, blue) have recently hit what could be bottoms, preparing the altcoin to make a significant upwards correction.
Based on this, and based on analysis from the likes of Jelle, we could see the Ethereum price retake $3,000 within the next week, and then move up to $3,500 by the end of February.
And because Ethereum is the biggest layer-one in terms of TVL, and is also leading the charge in terms of tokenization, it’s long-term price prediction is hugely bullish.
It could reach $4,000 in Q2, break the $5,000 barrier in H2, and then breach $6,500 in Q4.
This will depend on macroeconomic conditions, but if circumstances permit, Ethereum has the potential to rocket.
#NFA
Crypto investor Jelle highlighted how Bitcoin remains above its weekly support, while macroeconomic conditions are evolving in a way that will ultimately drive demand for BTC.
As such, Jelle plans to hold his BTC and wait for the eventual rally, with the investor offering a similar assessment for Ethereum.
As noted above, the investor expects Ethereum to outperform the market average once things become more bullish, although he admits that if it drops below the $2,500 support level he may “have to re-assess.”
If we look at the Ethereum price chart today, we see that it may be nearing a big move, with a pennant forming since October.
Its RSI (yellow) and MACD (orange, blue) have recently hit what could be bottoms, preparing the altcoin to make a significant upwards correction.
Based on this, and based on analysis from the likes of Jelle, we could see the Ethereum price retake $3,000 within the next week, and then move up to $3,500 by the end of February.
And because Ethereum is the biggest layer-one in terms of TVL, and is also leading the charge in terms of tokenization, it’s long-term price prediction is hugely bullish.
It could reach $4,000 in Q2, break the $5,000 barrier in H2, and then breach $6,500 in Q4.
This will depend on macroeconomic conditions, but if circumstances permit, Ethereum has the potential to rocket.
#NFA
🚨Key prediction market putting strong odds on BlackRock's Rieder as next Fed chair . 🚨
BlackRock's chief bond investment manager Rick Rieder is now the clear favorite to succeed current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term is up, according to prediction market Kalshi.
On Tuesday, a day ahead of the outcome of the latest interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, those who are willing to put money on the line to bet on the succession race put a 48% probability on Rieder becoming Fed leader.
#FedWatch
BlackRock's chief bond investment manager Rick Rieder is now the clear favorite to succeed current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term is up, according to prediction market Kalshi.
On Tuesday, a day ahead of the outcome of the latest interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, those who are willing to put money on the line to bet on the succession race put a 48% probability on Rieder becoming Fed leader.
#FedWatch
#News 🚨: US banks may lose $500 billion to stablecoins by 2028, Standard Chartered warns.
U.S. dollar-backed crypto tokens known as stablecoins could pull around $500 billion in deposits out of U.S. banks by the end of 2028, Standard Chartered estimated on Tuesday - new analysis that could intensify a fight between banks and crypto companies over legislation to set rules for the digital asset sector.
U.S. dollar-backed crypto tokens known as stablecoins could pull around $500 billion in deposits out of U.S. banks by the end of 2028, Standard Chartered estimated on Tuesday - new analysis that could intensify a fight between banks and crypto companies over legislation to set rules for the digital asset sector.
It has been one year since the first US crypto-friendly president took office. Here are the numbers.
Since Trump took office and until yesterday:
👉 BTC is down 12%
👉 $ETH is down 5%
👉 $XRP is down 40%
👉 SOL is down 50%.
Other large-caps are down 50%-60%
Mid-caps are down 70%-80%
Small-caps and memes are down 90%
Some other interesting numbers:
👉 TRUMP (token) down 93% from the top
👉 MELANIA (token) down 99% from the top
👉 $WLFI (token) down 63%from the top
👉 Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) (stock) down 65% in one year.
In September 2025, Forbes estimated that Trump and his family's net worth had increased by around $3 billion (from $4.3 billion to $7.3 billion) since he took office. Most of this increase comes from cryptocurrency ventures.
Also worth noting that in a year:
👉 Gold is up 55%
👉 Silver is up 205%
👉 Dow Jones is up 12%
👉 Nasdaq is up 16%
To sum it up:
The economy has gone well enough, metals have skyrocketed, and crypto has tanked.
Data: TedPillows on X, CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance
Since Trump took office and until yesterday:
👉 BTC is down 12%
👉 $ETH is down 5%
👉 $XRP is down 40%
👉 SOL is down 50%.
Other large-caps are down 50%-60%
Mid-caps are down 70%-80%
Small-caps and memes are down 90%
Some other interesting numbers:
👉 TRUMP (token) down 93% from the top
👉 MELANIA (token) down 99% from the top
👉 $WLFI (token) down 63%from the top
👉 Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) (stock) down 65% in one year.
In September 2025, Forbes estimated that Trump and his family's net worth had increased by around $3 billion (from $4.3 billion to $7.3 billion) since he took office. Most of this increase comes from cryptocurrency ventures.
Also worth noting that in a year:
👉 Gold is up 55%
👉 Silver is up 205%
👉 Dow Jones is up 12%
👉 Nasdaq is up 16%
To sum it up:
The economy has gone well enough, metals have skyrocketed, and crypto has tanked.
Data: TedPillows on X, CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance
🚨 🇺🇸 vs 🇨🇳 China Nears U.S. Bitcoin Reserves Despite Crypto Ban.
China is close to matching, and potentially overtaking, the United States as the largest government holder of bitcoin, despite maintaining a nationwide ban on crypto trading and mining. The claim was posted on its official X account.
According to the analysis, a significant share of those holdings may come from seizures and enforcement actions tied to illicit activity rather than open-market purchases. The thread suggests Beijing has not liquidated all confiscated bitcoin, allowing reserves to build quietly over time.
By contrast, it notes U.S. reserves also largely originate from forfeitures, but with periodic sales or auctions, making the balance more fluid. The key watch item is whether China formally surpasses the U.S. and what signals emerge around any future custody, management, or sale of those assets.
China is close to matching, and potentially overtaking, the United States as the largest government holder of bitcoin, despite maintaining a nationwide ban on crypto trading and mining. The claim was posted on its official X account.
According to the analysis, a significant share of those holdings may come from seizures and enforcement actions tied to illicit activity rather than open-market purchases. The thread suggests Beijing has not liquidated all confiscated bitcoin, allowing reserves to build quietly over time.
By contrast, it notes U.S. reserves also largely originate from forfeitures, but with periodic sales or auctions, making the balance more fluid. The key watch item is whether China formally surpasses the U.S. and what signals emerge around any future custody, management, or sale of those assets.
After reviewing industry reports and reserve disclosures, I found that Tether acquired approximately 27 metric tons of gold in Q4 2025 as part of its continued expansion of reserves backing $XAU .
This move is significant not only in scale, but also in timing. Against the backdrop of record-high gold prices, persistent geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic uncertainty, demand for gold-backed digital assets has accelerated sharply.
Over the past year, the gold-backed stablecoin market expanded from roughly $1.3 billion to over $4 billion, with Tether Gold accounting for nearly 60% of total market share. This level of dominance positions Tether as the clear leader in the segment.
This move is significant not only in scale, but also in timing. Against the backdrop of record-high gold prices, persistent geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic uncertainty, demand for gold-backed digital assets has accelerated sharply.
Over the past year, the gold-backed stablecoin market expanded from roughly $1.3 billion to over $4 billion, with Tether Gold accounting for nearly 60% of total market share. This level of dominance positions Tether as the clear leader in the segment.
🚨JAPAN WILL CRASH MARKETS THIS FRIDAY!!
April 29, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 23%
May 1, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 26%
July 11, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 31%
And The next Yen Intervention is scheduled THIS Friday.
Let me explain this in simple words.
Yen intervention is not an FX story.
It is a LIQUIDITY story.
Every time Japan steps in, they spend BIG size, usually ¥2.5 TRILLION to ¥5 TRILLION.
That is a real shock, and it hits markets through flows, not headlines.
Japan is the cheap money hub, so people borrow yen and buy everything else with it.
When Japan defends the yen, that cheap money trade gets forced to close fast.
That is why you see a quick risk dump, and crypto gets the violent move first.
That one statement explains a lot.
Now connect the dots.
- US Treasuries get stressed
- Yields jump
- Liquidity gets thin
- Then stocks react.
- Then crypto gets the violent move first.
- People get liquidated.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
April 29, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 23%
May 1, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 26%
July 11, 2024: $BTC DUMPED 31%
And The next Yen Intervention is scheduled THIS Friday.
Let me explain this in simple words.
Yen intervention is not an FX story.
It is a LIQUIDITY story.
Every time Japan steps in, they spend BIG size, usually ¥2.5 TRILLION to ¥5 TRILLION.
That is a real shock, and it hits markets through flows, not headlines.
Japan is the cheap money hub, so people borrow yen and buy everything else with it.
When Japan defends the yen, that cheap money trade gets forced to close fast.
That is why you see a quick risk dump, and crypto gets the violent move first.
That one statement explains a lot.
Now connect the dots.
- US Treasuries get stressed
- Yields jump
- Liquidity gets thin
- Then stocks react.
- Then crypto gets the violent move first.
- People get liquidated.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
$ASTER preparing for the show.
Aster price has started surging, surviving the selling pressure. I don't have any idea about how long this pump will continue if you know anything comment down and let us know.
Aster price has started surging, surviving the selling pressure. I don't have any idea about how long this pump will continue if you know anything comment down and let us know.
$SOL making a pullback from the support. going to 140$?
Sol in moving inside a falling wedge chart pattern, making a pullback from the key psychological support of 117$, at the time of writing this SOL is trading near 124$. I think the price could surge again to 140$ soon whats your opinion?
Sol in moving inside a falling wedge chart pattern, making a pullback from the key psychological support of 117$, at the time of writing this SOL is trading near 124$. I think the price could surge again to 140$ soon whats your opinion?
Tokenization is officially mainstream.
Forbes highlights $ONDO 's role in validating tokenized assets, which are now expanding access to assets that were previously out of reach.
The article notes Ondo's regulatory approach helped validate tokenized assets as viable onchain products.
By pushing for sensible frameworks early, Ondo helped establish the regulatory foundation for tokenization to truly scale, an industry now projected to reach $2–4 trillion by 2030.
Forbes highlights $ONDO 's role in validating tokenized assets, which are now expanding access to assets that were previously out of reach.
The article notes Ondo's regulatory approach helped validate tokenized assets as viable onchain products.
By pushing for sensible frameworks early, Ondo helped establish the regulatory foundation for tokenization to truly scale, an industry now projected to reach $2–4 trillion by 2030.
🚨
HISTORY OF 2008 REPEATING!!
Gold hits an ATH at $5,097.
Silver hits an ATH at $109.81.
I don't want to SCARE you, but this is not a recession anymore.
We are on the verge of a HUGE COLLAPSE of the US dollar.
If you hold any assets, you MUST read this post.
Here's what's happening:
When gold and silver pump like this,
it means that big money is derisking their capital.
Silver pumped 7% in just ONE SESSION.
People are not buying metals because they want to,
they are buying because they are TERRIFIED of holding anything else.
And that's only the beginning.
In China, one ounce of physical silver costs OVER $134 right now.
In Japan, one ounce will cost you $139.
This is the biggest spread between paper and physical asset I have ever seen.
But once the market starts CRASHING, Big Money will be forced to sell papers to cover their losses.
It’s a forced liquidation before we go even higher.
The FED and US government are literally trapped:
SCENARIO 1
If Trump forces Powell to cut rates to save the crashing stock market,
Gold will hit $6,000 instantly.
SCENARIO 2
If the FED holds rates to save the dollar,
the real estate and equity markets COLLAPSE.
THERE'S NO GOOD SCENARIO...
This week will change the market forever, and you MUST be ready for it.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, and I will keep you updated on everything.
I have been studying macro for 10 years and predicted every market TOP and BOTTOM.
Many people wish they had followed me earlier...
HISTORY OF 2008 REPEATING!!
Gold hits an ATH at $5,097.
Silver hits an ATH at $109.81.
I don't want to SCARE you, but this is not a recession anymore.
We are on the verge of a HUGE COLLAPSE of the US dollar.
If you hold any assets, you MUST read this post.
Here's what's happening:
When gold and silver pump like this,
it means that big money is derisking their capital.
Silver pumped 7% in just ONE SESSION.
People are not buying metals because they want to,
they are buying because they are TERRIFIED of holding anything else.
And that's only the beginning.
In China, one ounce of physical silver costs OVER $134 right now.
In Japan, one ounce will cost you $139.
This is the biggest spread between paper and physical asset I have ever seen.
But once the market starts CRASHING, Big Money will be forced to sell papers to cover their losses.
It’s a forced liquidation before we go even higher.
The FED and US government are literally trapped:
SCENARIO 1
If Trump forces Powell to cut rates to save the crashing stock market,
Gold will hit $6,000 instantly.
SCENARIO 2
If the FED holds rates to save the dollar,
the real estate and equity markets COLLAPSE.
THERE'S NO GOOD SCENARIO...
This week will change the market forever, and you MUST be ready for it.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, and I will keep you updated on everything.
I have been studying macro for 10 years and predicted every market TOP and BOTTOM.
Many people wish they had followed me earlier...
🇺🇸
FED IS SIGNALING YEN INTERVENTION AGAIN JUST LIKE 1985. LAST TIME, THIS CRASHED THE DOLLAR BY NEARLY -50%.
In 1985, the U.S. dollar had become too strong. U.S. factories were losing business, exports were collapsing, and trade deficits were exploding. Congress was close to putting heavy tariffs on Japan and Europe.
So the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. met in New York at the Plaza Hotel and made a deal. They agreed to deliberately weaken the dollar. By directly selling dollars and buying other currencies together. That was the Plaza Accord and it worked.
Over the next 3 years:
- The dollar index fell almost 50%.
- USD/JPY moved from 260 to 120.
- The yen doubled in value.
This was one of the biggest currency resets in modern history. Because when governments coordinate in FX, markets don’t fight them. They follow. That decision changed everything.
A weaker dollar pushed:
- Gold higher
- Commodities higher
- Non-U.S. markets higher
- Asset prices higher in dollar terms
Now look at today.
The U.S. still runs large trade deficits. Currency imbalances are at the highest. Japan is again at the center of stress. And the yen is again extremely weak. That is why Plaza Accord 2.0 is even being discussed.
Last week, the NY Fed did rate checks on USD/JPY, which is the exact step taken before FX intervention. It signals willingness to sell dollars and buy yen, just like 1985.
No intervention happened yet. But markets moved anyway. Because they remember what Plaza means.
FED IS SIGNALING YEN INTERVENTION AGAIN JUST LIKE 1985. LAST TIME, THIS CRASHED THE DOLLAR BY NEARLY -50%.
In 1985, the U.S. dollar had become too strong. U.S. factories were losing business, exports were collapsing, and trade deficits were exploding. Congress was close to putting heavy tariffs on Japan and Europe.
So the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. met in New York at the Plaza Hotel and made a deal. They agreed to deliberately weaken the dollar. By directly selling dollars and buying other currencies together. That was the Plaza Accord and it worked.
Over the next 3 years:
- The dollar index fell almost 50%.
- USD/JPY moved from 260 to 120.
- The yen doubled in value.
This was one of the biggest currency resets in modern history. Because when governments coordinate in FX, markets don’t fight them. They follow. That decision changed everything.
A weaker dollar pushed:
- Gold higher
- Commodities higher
- Non-U.S. markets higher
- Asset prices higher in dollar terms
Now look at today.
The U.S. still runs large trade deficits. Currency imbalances are at the highest. Japan is again at the center of stress. And the yen is again extremely weak. That is why Plaza Accord 2.0 is even being discussed.
Last week, the NY Fed did rate checks on USD/JPY, which is the exact step taken before FX intervention. It signals willingness to sell dollars and buy yen, just like 1985.
No intervention happened yet. But markets moved anyway. Because they remember what Plaza means.
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