Vinicius Velasque
Apresentador do Cozinha OnChain, onde cripto e gastronomia se encontram.
Entrevistas com grandes nomes do mercado enquanto preparamos pratos de verdade.
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US$ 9.5 BILLION in shorts above US$ 100k.
Why is US$ 100k a dangerous level for those who are short in $BTC
Above US$ 100k there are US$ 9.5B in short positions.
This is not technical resistance.
It's concentrated risk.
What happens if the price rises?
When the $BTC rises:
the short's loss increases
the margin decreases
the broker forces the closure
Closing shorts = buying $BTC at market.
This pushes the price even higher.
That's why we call it a short squeeze
It's not euphoria.
It's mathematics.
The price rises → shorts break → forced buying → price accelerates.
Above US$ 100k there are US$ 9.5B in short positions.
This is not technical resistance.
It's concentrated risk.
What happens if the price rises?
When the $BTC rises:
the short's loss increases
the margin decreases
the broker forces the closure
Closing shorts = buying $BTC at market.
This pushes the price even higher.
That's why we call it a short squeeze
It's not euphoria.
It's mathematics.
The price rises → shorts break → forced buying → price accelerates.
Ethereum and Wyckoff: what the chart is really saying
Ethereum is not 'stopped'.
It is in accumulation.
According to the Wyckoff model, this type of structure is built in phases, and each has a clear function:
🔹 Phase A – Interrupts the downtrend
🔹 Phase B – Time + lateralization to absorb supply
🔹 Phase C – Spring: last liquidity cleanup
🔹 Phase D – Character change (LPS / SOS)
🔹 Phase E – Trend establishes
What seems like boredom is, in fact, market engineering.
📉 Price moves sideways to:
It is in accumulation.
According to the Wyckoff model, this type of structure is built in phases, and each has a clear function:
🔹 Phase A – Interrupts the downtrend
🔹 Phase B – Time + lateralization to absorb supply
🔹 Phase C – Spring: last liquidity cleanup
🔹 Phase D – Character change (LPS / SOS)
🔹 Phase E – Trend establishes
What seems like boredom is, in fact, market engineering.
📉 Price moves sideways to:
🚨 A trader turned US$ 53 thousand into US$ 1.5 MILLION in $PENGUIN in just 72h…
And you know what's the craziest part?
👉 He DIDN'T SELL ANYTHING.
Smart money doesn't exit on the first pump.
It exits when the crowd thinks they've "missed the chance".
Those who sell early profit.
Those who hold right, change their level. 🧠💰
Would you sell or hold? 👇
#crypto #blockchain #trader #futures
And you know what's the craziest part?
👉 He DIDN'T SELL ANYTHING.
Smart money doesn't exit on the first pump.
It exits when the crowd thinks they've "missed the chance".
Those who sell early profit.
Those who hold right, change their level. 🧠💰
Would you sell or hold? 👇
#crypto #blockchain #trader #futures
🚨 SharpLink and the "strategic reserve" of $ETH became a risk thermometer.
The print mentions -US$ 197M of unrealized loss...
but public data now points to something close to -US$ 552M (mark-to-market).
This is NOT realized loss.
It's the price of $ETH saying: "good morning."
Honest question:
📉 if a company holds 0.7% of the supply, is that conviction... or leveraged beta with infinite time?
Comment: would you hold or reduce? 👇
#eth #crypto #blockchain #ETHMarketWatch
The print mentions -US$ 197M of unrealized loss...
but public data now points to something close to -US$ 552M (mark-to-market).
This is NOT realized loss.
It's the price of $ETH saying: "good morning."
Honest question:
📉 if a company holds 0.7% of the supply, is that conviction... or leveraged beta with infinite time?
Comment: would you hold or reduce? 👇
#eth #crypto #blockchain #ETHMarketWatch
📊 Analysis — BTC x Global Liquidity (Fair Value Model)
The chart shows three key things:
• Green line (Fair Value) → "fair" price of BTC based on global liquidity
• Orange line (BTC Price) → market price
• Shaded area → acceptable statistical zone (±1 deviation)
What this says today:
• The price of $BTC is below or very close to the Fair Value, even with:
• Global liquidity expanding
• Less restrictive monetary policy on the horizon
• Structural entry of institutional capital (ETFs, custody, derivatives)
📌 In previous cycles, when $BTC was below Fair Value, it did not last long; the adjustment came through the price, not through liquidity.
👉 In other words: it is not that $BTC is weak, it is the liquidity that has not yet been fully priced in.
🧠 Simple translation
The market has not yet reflected all the liquidity available in the global system.
When this happens, historically, Bitcoin catches up.
#btc #Onchain #analysis #crypto
The chart shows three key things:
• Green line (Fair Value) → "fair" price of BTC based on global liquidity
• Orange line (BTC Price) → market price
• Shaded area → acceptable statistical zone (±1 deviation)
What this says today:
• The price of $BTC is below or very close to the Fair Value, even with:
• Global liquidity expanding
• Less restrictive monetary policy on the horizon
• Structural entry of institutional capital (ETFs, custody, derivatives)
📌 In previous cycles, when $BTC was below Fair Value, it did not last long; the adjustment came through the price, not through liquidity.
👉 In other words: it is not that $BTC is weak, it is the liquidity that has not yet been fully priced in.
🧠 Simple translation
The market has not yet reflected all the liquidity available in the global system.
When this happens, historically, Bitcoin catches up.
#btc #Onchain #analysis #crypto
📊 Chart Analysis (FDV vs TVL – Ethereum)
The chart compares the Fully Diluted Market Cap (FDV) of Ethereum with the total TVL of the ecosystem. Historically, this relationship acts as a thermometer for structural undervaluation.
🔍 What the red circles show
In the last two times the FDV of $ETH fell below or touched the TVL:
2020
2022
👉 Both marked macro bottom zones and asymmetric buying opportunities before significant upward movements.
Today, the chart shows again:
📉 Compression between FDV and TVL
🔍 What the red circles show
In the last two times the FDV of $ETH fell below or touched the TVL:
2020
2022
👉 Both marked macro bottom zones and asymmetric buying opportunities before significant upward movements.
Today, the chart shows again:
📉 Compression between FDV and TVL
BTC: Correction ≠ Structural Collapse
The $BTC lost the 50-week Moving Average (MA50) on the weekly chart.
This signals short-term weakness, not the end of the cycle.
Bull markets undergo corrections — this is structural.
Historically, the loss of the MA50 in bull cycles:
• Indicates corrective phase
• Reduces leverage
• Reprices risk
❌ Does not confirm trend reversal by itself.
The price is now testing the 'Make or Break' zone, with the MA50 acting as dynamic resistance.
This behavior is typical of intermediate corrections before the next directional leg.
This signals short-term weakness, not the end of the cycle.
Bull markets undergo corrections — this is structural.
Historically, the loss of the MA50 in bull cycles:
• Indicates corrective phase
• Reduces leverage
• Reprices risk
❌ Does not confirm trend reversal by itself.
The price is now testing the 'Make or Break' zone, with the MA50 acting as dynamic resistance.
This behavior is typical of intermediate corrections before the next directional leg.
"China found more than 1,000 tons of gold."
Translating: someone made an underground PowerPoint.
There is no gold without:
• drilling
• cost
• risk
• state control
Bitcoin does not ask for permission.
It does not depend on a geologist.
It does not appear "out of nowhere."
⛏️ Gold is a promise.
🟠 Bitcoin is execution.
Try to find more $BTC .
#BTC #crypto #blockchain
Translating: someone made an underground PowerPoint.
There is no gold without:
• drilling
• cost
• risk
• state control
Bitcoin does not ask for permission.
It does not depend on a geologist.
It does not appear "out of nowhere."
⛏️ Gold is a promise.
🟠 Bitcoin is execution.
Try to find more $BTC .
#BTC #crypto #blockchain
The debate is not 'has altseason died or not'. It's relative structure.
ETH/BTC has remained in compression for ~1100 days within the same range that marked the breakout of the previous cycle.
ALTS/BTC show defense of historical support after multiple years of underperformance.
This characterizes a transition zone, not a defined trend.
Prolonged compressions alter asymmetry.
The risk is not only of continued decline, but also of violent directional movement when:
• dominance of $BTC stabilizes
• risk spreads begin to close
• marginal flow seeks beta
ALTS/BTC show defense of historical support after multiple years of underperformance.
This characterizes a transition zone, not a defined trend.
Prolonged compressions alter asymmetry.
The risk is not only of continued decline, but also of violent directional movement when:
• dominance of $BTC stabilizes
• risk spreads begin to close
• marginal flow seeks beta
🚨 BE CAREFUL WITH THE “LOOKS LIKE 2022” TRAP
Yes, Bitcoin drew a bearish flag.
Yes, LTF and HTF are pointing downwards.
❌ But those comparing this to 2022 are only looking at the chart.
In 2022:
👉 The FED drained liquidity mercilessly.
👉 Aggressive QT.
👉 Scarce dollar.
Now:
👉 The FED's balance sheet is not tightening.
👉 Liquidity continues in the system.
👉 ETFs have created structural demand.
📉 The chart is frightening.
💧 Liquidity is reassuring.
The market doesn't break due to patterns.
It breaks due to lack of money.
Are you trading the chart…
or the macro? 👀
Yes, Bitcoin drew a bearish flag.
Yes, LTF and HTF are pointing downwards.
❌ But those comparing this to 2022 are only looking at the chart.
In 2022:
👉 The FED drained liquidity mercilessly.
👉 Aggressive QT.
👉 Scarce dollar.
Now:
👉 The FED's balance sheet is not tightening.
👉 Liquidity continues in the system.
👉 ETFs have created structural demand.
📉 The chart is frightening.
💧 Liquidity is reassuring.
The market doesn't break due to patterns.
It breaks due to lack of money.
Are you trading the chart…
or the macro? 👀
🚨 BE CAREFUL WITH FAKENEWS🚨
They are saying that "The Blackrock ETF sold US$ 354.23 million in $BTC and US$ 246.7 million in $ETH ".
➡️ This has NOT been officially confirmed.
What really happened:
• On-chain movements to Coinbase Prime
• Possible rebalancing or liquidity
• There is no proof of sale in the market
📉 Transfer ≠ Sell
📊 ETF flow ≠ BlackRock's decision
Narrative runs faster than facts.
Do you check... or just repeat? 👀💥
They are saying that "The Blackrock ETF sold US$ 354.23 million in $BTC and US$ 246.7 million in $ETH ".
➡️ This has NOT been officially confirmed.
What really happened:
• On-chain movements to Coinbase Prime
• Possible rebalancing or liquidity
• There is no proof of sale in the market
📉 Transfer ≠ Sell
📊 ETF flow ≠ BlackRock's decision
Narrative runs faster than facts.
Do you check... or just repeat? 👀💥
Every time the Russell 2000 hit ATH…
Bitcoin exploded afterwards.
📌 2017
Russell makes a new top →
$BTC went from ~US$1,000 to US$20,000.
📌 2021
Russell makes a new top →
$BTC went from ~US$10,000 to US$69,000.
📌 2026
Russell at a new ATH again.
The pattern does not guarantee results.
But ignoring the pattern has always been costly.
Do you think this time $BTC will ignore…
or is the market warning once again beforehand?
#btc #blockchain #crypto #Altseason
Bitcoin exploded afterwards.
📌 2017
Russell makes a new top →
$BTC went from ~US$1,000 to US$20,000.
📌 2021
Russell makes a new top →
$BTC went from ~US$10,000 to US$69,000.
📌 2026
Russell at a new ATH again.
The pattern does not guarantee results.
But ignoring the pattern has always been costly.
Do you think this time $BTC will ignore…
or is the market warning once again beforehand?
#btc #blockchain #crypto #Altseason
Bitcoin is not "undecided".
It is waiting for too many people to get it wrong.
The heatmap shows everything.
The market hunts for liquidity, not opinions.
What can be read clearly:
• 🟡 Intense yellow bands = large liquidation pools
• Above and below the current price → the market is surrounded
• 📍 Region ~80k–85k: giant liquidity below
• 📍 Region ~100k–120k: even greater liquidity above
🧠 Simple translation:
• It's not about "breaking resistance"
• It's about going where there's more money to be liquidated
#btc #blockchain #Liquidations
It is waiting for too many people to get it wrong.
The heatmap shows everything.
The market hunts for liquidity, not opinions.
What can be read clearly:
• 🟡 Intense yellow bands = large liquidation pools
• Above and below the current price → the market is surrounded
• 📍 Region ~80k–85k: giant liquidity below
• 📍 Region ~100k–120k: even greater liquidity above
🧠 Simple translation:
• It's not about "breaking resistance"
• It's about going where there's more money to be liquidated
#btc #blockchain #Liquidations
Gold is only a "safe haven"
until the market needs liquidity.
📉 Then it falls like any other asset.
Today, the chart made this clear.
Safety is not the asset.
It's understanding the cycle.
Do you agree or will you defend the old narrative?
until the market needs liquidity.
📉 Then it falls like any other asset.
Today, the chart made this clear.
Safety is not the asset.
It's understanding the cycle.
Do you agree or will you defend the old narrative?
🚨 Another bank is liquidated in Brazil!
Will Bank was placed into extrajudicial liquidation by the Central Bank.
This doesn't happen out of nowhere; it's the final point when the bank can no longer sustain itself financially.
Liquidation ≠ random punishment.
The Central Bank monitors, demands adjustments, and seeks solutions beforehand.
When there is no viable recovery, it closes to protect clients and the system.
Banks fail, almost always, due to the same combination:
❌ Lack of capital (solvency)
❌ Poor risk management
❌ Dependency on a controller in crisis
This doesn't happen out of nowhere; it's the final point when the bank can no longer sustain itself financially.
Liquidation ≠ random punishment.
The Central Bank monitors, demands adjustments, and seeks solutions beforehand.
When there is no viable recovery, it closes to protect clients and the system.
Banks fail, almost always, due to the same combination:
❌ Lack of capital (solvency)
❌ Poor risk management
❌ Dependency on a controller in crisis
🚨 FACT CHECKING
No, the White House did not announce in Davos that "banks will invest everything in cryptocurrencies".
👉 What really happened:
• Banks and authorities spoke about conditional interest
• Everything depends on clear regulation
• Adoption is gradual, not an "all-in"
⚠️ Inflated headline ≠ fact.
Honest question:
do you prefer hype or data before investing? 👀📊
No, the White House did not announce in Davos that "banks will invest everything in cryptocurrencies".
👉 What really happened:
• Banks and authorities spoke about conditional interest
• Everything depends on clear regulation
• Adoption is gradual, not an "all-in"
⚠️ Inflated headline ≠ fact.
Honest question:
do you prefer hype or data before investing? 👀📊
A wallet from the Satoshi era containing 909 $BTC worth US$ 84.6 million has just awakened after 13.2 years.
The gains of Bitcoin in 13 years, 13,900 times greater, surpassed the S&P 500 by +481% and gold by 150%.
The gains of Bitcoin in 13 years, 13,900 times greater, surpassed the S&P 500 by +481% and gold by 150%.
Me asking about my cryptocurrency portfolio every day.
So how is your portfolio with this market drop?
#BTC100kNext? #btc #eth #sol
So how is your portfolio with this market drop?
#BTC100kNext? #btc #eth #sol
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