Strong reaction so far off the 60K range lows. This area marked the bottom of the previous 6 month accumulation range (We held this area multiple times)
The key zone to watch now is the 70–76K range, the prior S/R and the point where price would re-accept into the previous range.
Bottoms rarely form in a straight V-shaped recovery, so if we see rejection from this box, there’s a high probability of renewed acceptance lower and a move back down.
In crypto, there is the concept of 'Finality'. This is the moment when a transaction can no longer be canceled or altered. For banks trading assets in millions, this is a matter of life and death. 🔴 The issue of 'probability' Bitcoin: You need to wait ~60 minutes (6 confirmations) to be sure.
The probability of price discovery happening on-chain is now near zero.
We’re currently living through a structural break in the asset.
– Spot – Futures – ETFs – Perpetual Swaps
The market you think exists is gone.
Let me explain:
The original valuation model was built on a simple framework: a hard cap of 21 million units.
But that framework died the moment Wall Street layered derivatives on top of the chain.
It almost always comes from the market’s structure: leverage, rehypothecation, and synthetic supply.
That’s important to understand because we’re talking about internal strains in the scarcity mechanics.
As you know, when paper claims overwhelm real assets, price stops responding to demand and starts responding to positioning.
To explain quickly: in finance, we measure the health of an asset by its "float." But now we have the Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR).
1 claim per coin: Healthy 2 claims per coin: Common 3 claims per coin: Fractional 6 claims per coin: THE CURRENT REALITY
Here are the assets that suffered this structural break previously:
– Gold – Silver – Oil – Equities
But we’ve never seen a hard asset absorbed this quickly.
Do you see the point?
A supply shock is almost NEVER triggered by organic selling when the supply is theoretically infinite.
Wall Street isn't "betting." They are manufacturing inventory.
One real BTC now simultaneously backs an ETF share, a future, and a swap.
When a pillar of the crypto thesis (scarcity) becomes unstable, leverage takes over, and two things happen at the same time: forced liquidations and infinite paper printing.
I won’t go on, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a scarcity regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.
It’s exactly in those moments that price decouples from reality.
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