The Daily Hodl

#FedWatch - Can a March Fed Pivot Spark a Crypto Rally? With the March FOMC meeting approaching, markets are laser-focused on the Federal Reserve’s message. According to CME FedWatch data, the odds are currently tilted toward rates holding steady through early 2026, with only a modest chance of a cut being priced in so far. If the Fed shifts toward faster rate cuts this year — signaling a willingness to loosen policy as inflation cools — it could act as a major liquidity boost for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Lower rates generally reduce the cost of capital, lift risk appetite, and can trigger rallies in crypto and equities as traders chase higher returns. On the other hand, if the Fed maintains a hawkish or unchanged stance, emphasizing inflation risks and tighter financial conditions, markets may see short-term volatility or sideways trading. A tone that downplays future cuts can strengthen the dollar, push bond yields higher, and undermine risk asset momentum. Crypto markets are already pricing a “higher-for-longer” narrative in some scenarios, and any ambiguity from the Fed could keep BTC and altcoins choppy until there’s greater clarity. In short: Dovish signals → liquidity boost → potential crypto rally Hawkish/hold tone → volatility or range-bound action What do you think? Bullish if cuts are hinted — or cautious if the Fed stays tight?