HNS CAPITAL

Vitalik recently published a blog post about his vision for $ETH development in the next few years. The current market conditions have led me to consider Vitalik's true intentions. Here are some of the main points I've thought of:
Vitalik's strategy isn't a "defensive approach due to lack of funds," but rather a long-term strategic repositioning for Ethereum. This can be broken down into five core reasons:
1. Ethereum is entering the "core infrastructure" phase, no longer a high-growth startup.
In its first 5–10 years, Ethereum needed:
• Rapid growth
• Attracting developers, apps, and users at all costs
But currently:
• Ethereum is already a global settlement layer
• It plays the role of public infrastructure, no longer a "test product"
👉 Once it's a core infrastructure, the priority is no longer "quick pumping," but rather:
• Stability
• Sustainability
• Independence from capital cycles
"Mild austerity" here is like transitioning from a startup to a national utility.
2. Avoid the “Big Tech + Big Capital” Trap
Vitalik clearly stated:
It's not about “opening up where everyone pays $200/month to use the API.”
That is, he actively avoids the path of:
• Big VC
• Big Corp
• Growth dependent on proprietary SaaS/API
Reasons:
• If Ethereum is controlled by capital & corporate → loss of self-sovereignty
• Then Ethereum is just a crypto version of AWS
👉 A strategy of tight spending + deep open-source = locking down development towards its original value.
3. Withdrawing 16,384 ETH is not for “selling,” but for self-financing the ecosystem.
This point is very good and many people misunderstand it.
Vitalik:
• Withdraw ETH
• Deploy gradually over many years
• Priorities: ZK, FHE, privacy, secure OS, hardware, open silicon
👉 This is:
• Strategic capital allocation
• Not dependent on market hype
• No fundraising needed → no short-term growth KPI pressure
To put it bluntly: Vitalik is acting as the “sovereign fund” for Ethereum.
4. Preparing for a world of conflict, fragmentation, and high control
His statement about “big strong bully” is key to his thinking.
Vitalik sees the world as:
• Increased control
• Surveillance
• AI + state + corp power
Ethereum, in his eyes, is not just DeFi, but:
• Autonomous infrastructure
• For small communities, weak nations, and individuals
👉 Therefore, it needs:
• True privacy (ZK, FHE)
• Local-first software
• Secure hardware
• Cloud independence
This is geopolitical thinking, not trade narrative. 5. Accepting Slow Growth to Avoid “Value Degradation”
Vitalik understands very well:
• If you chase short-term narratives → Ethereum will be “rich” but empty at the core
• Many other chains are choosing that path
The current strategy is:
• Sacrifice speed
• Maintain ethical design
• Ensure Ethereum remains a neutral infrastructure for 20–30 years
In short,
Vitalik is not building Ethereum to:
• Pump the price
• Gain short-term market share
He built Ethereum as:
“A self-sufficient infrastructure for an unstable world”
This strategy:
• ❌ Not sexy for traders
• ❌ Not suitable for the meme cycle
• ✅ But extremely bullish for Ethereum in 1–2 decades -can you wait 5-10 years for holding ETH?

In the previous growth cycles of the cryptocurrency market, meme coins often acted as the segment that attracted the strongest speculative cash flow at the end. However, in the current market context, this asset group is showing obvious signs of weakness. Here are five main reasons for this phenomenon.
1. Cash flow shifts to long-term stories
Instead of focusing on purely speculative assets, investors are prioritizing areas with clearer use value and application potential, including artificial intelligence (AI), real-world assets (RWA) and Ethereum's scaling solutions (Layer 2). This shift makes meme coin no longer the default destination of short-term capital flow as before
2. The meme coin market is in a state of saturation
The number of meme coins released spiked, with hundreds of new projects appearing every day on many blockchains. The lack of screening standards, along with successive price manipulations and "rug pulls", has eroded the confidence of investors, especially small investors.
3. The market structure becomes unfavorable for ordinary investors
The increasing participation of trading bots, MEVs and the group holding a large amount of tokens from the beginning makes the price fluctuation of meme coin fast and unpredictable. In such an environment, the advantage of information and transaction speed leans strongly in favor of professional organizations and individuals, significantly reducing the profitability of ordinary investors.
4. Investment psychology shifts from speculation to capital efficiency
After many strong corrections, the market tends to prioritize sustainable cash flow strategies such as staking, farming or airdrop hunting, instead of betting on short-term price increases. Meme coin, which lacks an intrinsic value-creating model, no longer meets the stable profit expectations of most investors.
5. Meme coin is activated too early in the cycle
According to the familiar cycle logic, meme coins usually grow strongly at the end when the market has accumulated enough liquidity and optimism peaks. The fact that this asset group is boosted too early, when Bitcoin and Ethereum have not formed a sustainable trend, makes meme coin lack the necessary macro support to maintain the upward momentum.
Conclusion
The weakening of meme coin in the current period does not mean that this segment has completely disappeared from the market. However, the role of meme coin has changed: from a mass investment channel to a highly selective playground, where the advantage belongs to professional traders and short-term strategies. The return of the meme coin to the central position is likely to depend on when the market enters a more pronounced period of excitement in the next cycle.
$DOGE $MUBARAK

The Fed decided to suspend the interest rate cut cycle, keeping the same level of 3.5%–3.75% after three consecutive cuts, with the argument that the US economy is still growing steadily, the labor market is stable and inflation has fallen from the top but still higher than the target of 2%. The fact that the Fed removed the language that used to emphasize the risk of labor weakness shows that the two risks of inflation and growth are now more balanced, which means that the Fed is no longer pressured to relax monetary policy early, reinforcing the scenario of high interest rates to last longer. However, this decision was not completely agreed when two Fed Governors, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, voted against it, both of which supported a 0.25% cut, showing that there was still a softer view within the Fed.

At the beginning of the press conference, the Fed Chairman said that the US economy surprised him because of the level of persistence. Although surveys show that consumer sentiment is quite weak, actual spending is still very strong. The recruitment speed has slowed down but the dismissal rate is still low, showing that the labor market has not weakened. Businesses are benefiting from AI by improving productivity, while real estate continues to be the biggest weakness of the economy due to prolonged high interest rates.

When questioned about the hawkish tone, Powell emphasized that the Fed has not made any decision on when to cut interest rates next and will let the data lead the whole process. He avoided mentioning specific milestones for inflation or the labor market, only asserting that the risk is now more balanced and there are no worrying signs in the labor market. This shows that the Fed is maintaining a cautious but unclear stance, not rushing to cut but also not wanting to send too tough signals to cause market panic.

Regarding the possibility of raising interest rates again if inflation increases, Powell asserts that no one in the Fed currently considers raising interest rates as a basic scenario, thereby reassuring that the peak interest rate is likely to have passed. However, keeping interest rates high for a long time is still the preferred option, to ensure that inflation really returns to the target before policy relaxation.

Regarding tariffs, the Fed Chairman said that most of the impact on inflation has been reflected, the increase is only slight and if there is no new tariff, inflation is likely to gradually return to 2%. However, PCE core inflation is currently sideways and has not progressed significantly, making it difficult for the Fed to determine exactly when inflation will start to decrease further, although the mid-year scenario is still open.

When discussing AI and the labor market, Powell gave a long-term perspective, saying that AI can slow down recruitment in the short term but boost productivity, helping GDP continue to grow. Technology often disrupts temporary jobs but in the long run will create higher productivity, greater output and better wages. The Fed is closely monitoring the trend of businesses suspending recruitment to assess the actual impact of AI on the labor market.

On the political side, Powell reaffirmed the importance of the Fed's independence, especially in the context of pressure from President Trump and legal issues surrounding the Fed leadership. He refused to comment on the Department of Justice's investigation as well as his personal future after the end of the Fed Chairman's term.

Overall, Powell is on a very fragile line. On the one hand, he needs to maintain a hawkish tone strong enough not to be seen as influenced by President Trump, on the other hand, he cannot be too tough to weaken the economy, the financial market to fluctuate strongly and leave a negative legacy. This explains why the initial speech was quite hawkish but the tone gradually softened during the press conference.

The last message that the Fed sends to the market is that the economy is still strong enough to withstand high interest rates, inflation is not low enough to cut early, but the long-term trend is still towards easing. In other words, the Fed is in a state of maintaining high interest rates for a while before gradually cutting.