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Meme coins struggled this week as selling pressure pushed prices lower across the sector. However, despite the weakness, momentum indicators suggest losses may be slowing, and downside exhaustion is setting in. 

BeInCrypto has analysed three such meme coins, which, with sentiment stabilizing, are now showing early signs of a potential reversal as January ends.

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Gigachad (GIGA)

GIGA fell roughly 31% over the past week and now trades near $0.00305. The decline reflects aggressive distribution with limited buyer response. Short candlestick wicks suggest weak dip-buying interest so far, keeping selling pressure dominant and sentiment cautious in the near term.

Despite the drop, momentum indicators hint at stabilization. The Relative Strength Index has entered oversold territory, signaling that selling pressure may be exhausting. The $0.00305 level now acts as immediate support. If it holds, GIGA could see a relief bounce toward $0.00337 and $0.00362.

GIGA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

A stronger recovery would require a decisive move above $0.00362. Clearing that level could shift momentum and open a path toward $0.00417. Failure to defend $0.00305 would weaken the structure and likely push GIGA toward the $0.00282 support, invalidating the bullish thesis.

SPX6900 (SPX)

Another one of the meme coins to watch near January end is SPX, which has fallen nearly 30% from the prior high near 0.516 to a recent low around 0.358. The move broke multiple support level, confirming a strong bearish structure. However, the latest candle shows early stabilization, suggesting selling pressure may be slowing near current support.

Momentum indicators point to possible downside exhaustion. The Money Flow Index sits near the oversold territory, signaling stretched selling conditions. The $0.358 – $0.401 zone is a key demand area. If defended, SPX6900 could rebound toward $0.427 as the next target.

SPX Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Recovery strength depends on follow-through. A confirmed close above 0.427 would improve the broader outlook and support a trend reversal. Failure to hold 0.358 would weaken confidence. Under that scenario, price could slide toward 0.316, extending the bearish trend and invalidating the bullish thesis.

Bonk (BONK)

BONK posted a relatively mild 10% weekly decline but remains trapped in a downtrend that has been active for over two weeks. The meme coin trades near $0.00000859 at the time of writing. Price action shows resilience compared with peers, yet sustained selling continues to cap upside momentum.

A bullish divergence has emerged during the decline. While the BONK price formed a lower low, the Money Flow Index printed a higher low, signaling strengthening buying pressure. This divergence suggests accumulation. If confirmed, BONK could break above $0.00000933 and rally toward $0.00001103, ending the downtrend.

BONK Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The bullish setup remains conditional. Failure to break resistance would keep sellers in control. A loss of the $0.00000815 support would weaken the market structure. Under that scenario, BONK could slide toward $0.00000737, invalidating the bullish thesis and extending the prevailing downtrend.

An article published by BeInCrypto in late November 2025 incorrectly reported that Calvin Ayre was associated with Wirecard and its fabricated Asian payment network.

The article relied upon unverified and false statements published by The Rage and Bayerische Rundfunk.

We now recognise that there is no evidence to suggest Mr Ayre had any involvement in the Wirecard fraud whatsoever, nor did he knowingly benefit from it.

We have withdrawn the article from publication to prevent the false statements in the article from causing further harm to Mr. Ayre, and have replaced the article with this apology.

It was inappropriate for us to rely upon unverified sources and to ignore information that would have demonstrated the falsity of the accusations made regarding Mr. Ayre. We sincerely apologize to Mr. Ayre for the harm our article may have caused.

Crypto markets often react less to fundamentals and more to attention. When narratives peak, price follows only if volume and positioning confirm it. With Melania Trump’s documentary set to release on January 30, traders are watching whether hype can translate into sustained demand for MELANIA and TRUMP tokens — or whether both risk fading once attention peaks.

So far, price action for both these Solana-native tokens shows early positioning, not full conviction. The charts, volume data, and on-chain signals suggest both tokens are at decision points, where sentiment alone may not be enough.

MELANIA Price Analysis: Bullish Structure Forms, But Volume Still Lags

On the daily chart, the MELANIA price is forming a cup-and-handle pattern, a structure that often signals continuation higher when confirmed. The rounded base developed through December, followed by a short consolidation that shaped the handle. Recently, price attempted to break higher from that handle, signaling early bullish intent.

However, the breakout attempt has been weak, considering that the Melania Meme token price has been trading relatively flat over the past seven days.

The neckline of this structure is slightly downward-sloping, which makes confirmation more difficult. The MELANIA price attempted a breakout above the neckline on January 24 but failed. The reason was not price rejection alone — it was a lack of volume.

MELANIA Price Structure: TradingView

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From a pure chart perspective, the measured move from the cup projects a potential 111% upside. But without volume expansion, that projection remains theoretical.

Volume Confirms the Weak Spot

DEX trading volume highlights the problem clearly. MELANIA’s Ethereum DEX activity has been largely muted for weeks, with one notable spike on January 19, when volume briefly surged before fading again. Outside that session, participation remains thin.

So, neither DEX nor CEX volume patterns align with a breakout move yet.

Low DEX and CEX volume matter because MELANIA is a hype-driven token. These coins require consistent inflows to sustain trends. Right now, that inflow is intermittent.

Weak DEX Volume: Dune

This explains why price strength has stalled even as the pattern looks constructive.

Sentiment Rose First — Then Faded

Social sentiment provides more context. Positive sentiment for MELANIA peaked on January 20, reaching a score near 4.0, the highest level since late October. Historically, similar sentiment spikes have preceded price rallies, but with a lag.

For example, sentiment peaked near 4.95 in late October, and price followed with a rally toward $0.20 by mid-November. That pattern suggests sentiment often leads price — but only if volume follows.

Positive Sentiment: Santiment

This time, sentiment has already cooled. Current readings are closer to 1.85, well below the January peak.

With the documentary approaching, the lack of renewed sentiment acceleration is a warning sign. If hype was going to front-run the event aggressively, sentiment would likely already be climbing.

Whales Are Buying, But Not Aggressively

On-chain data adds nuance. Over the past seven days, MELANIA whales increased their holdings by roughly 9.7%, while exchange balances declined slightly. This suggests early positioning rather than late-stage FOMO.

Melania Meme Whales: Nansen

That said, the scale matters. Accumulation is present, but it is not explosive. Whales appear interested, but they are not forcing a breakout.

Key Melania Price Levels That Decide the Trend

For MELANIA, structure matters more with these key price levels to take note of:

Bullish confirmation requires a clean daily close above $0.190, with volume expanding.

Above that level, upside toward $0.298 becomes structurally valid, following the breakout projection.

If the MELANIA price falls below $0.141, the cup-and-handle structure weakens.

A drop below $0.098 would fully invalidate the setup and signal a sell-the-news risk.

MELANIA Price Analysis: TradingView

Right now, the MELANIA price sits in the middle. The structure is alive, but unsupported by volume.

That sets the stage for the next question. If the first lady token needs hype, sentiment, and volume to align, does TRUMP show similar or stronger signals — or is capital choosing sides within the same narrative?

TRUMP Price Analysis: Stronger Whale Interest, Same Volume Problem

TRUMP’s chart tells a different but related story. The Official Trump price is trading inside a falling wedge, a structure that often moves higher once the upper trendline breaks. From a technical perspective, TRUMP is closer to triggering a confirmed breakout than MELANIA. Yet, as compared to MELANIA’s range bounce pricing, the TRUMP price is down almost 3%, week-on-week.

TRUMP Structure: TradingView

The measured move from the wedge points to a potential 56% upside if momentum builds.

Whale Activity Is Stronger Than MELANIA

On-chain data shows a notable difference between the two tokens. TRUMP whales increased holdings by over 17% in the past week, nearly double MELANIA’s accumulation rate.

TRUMP Whales: Nansen

This suggests larger players are positioning more confidently in TRUMP, likely because of its stronger social dominance and broader narrative reach.

Comparing MELANIA And TRUMP Social Dominance: Santiment

TRUMP’s social dominance sits at 0.39% as opposed to MELANIA’s 0.006%. One reason why whales could be adding more of the former.

DEX Activity Shows Participation Is Fading

Despite whale accumulation, DEX data reveals declining retail engagement, similar to MELANIA. TRUMP’s DEX volume peaked on January 3, reaching over $157 million in daily volume. Since then, activity has collapsed to roughly $7.5 million, a drop of more than 95%.

DEX Activities For TRUMP: Dune

Average trade size and number of traders have both trended lower, confirming that recent price stability is not driven by fresh demand.

This mirrors MELANIA’s issue: structure exists, but follow-through does not.

The TRUMP Price Level That Matters Most

For that move to activate, TRUMP needs a clean close above $5.15. That level breaks the wedge resistance and flips the market structure bullish.

If achieved, follow-through toward $7.38 becomes realistic.

Bullish Pattern For TRUMP: TradingView

On the downside, risk is clearly defined:

$4.64 has acted as key TRUMP price support since the October breakdown.

A decisive loss of $4.63 would weaken the bullish structure.

Correlation Ties MELANIA And TRUMP Together

The final piece is correlation.

Over the long term, MELANIA and TRUMP have shown a positive correlation of 0.88, meaning price action in one often influences the other. Trump-related social dominance also remains far higher than MELANIA’s, which explains why whale interest is stronger in TRUMP.

This relationship matters. If MELANIA sees a volume-backed breakout tied to documentary hype, TRUMP is statistically likely to benefit. The reverse is also true.

Long-Term Correlation: DeFillama

But correlation does not create volume. It only transfers momentum once it exists.

However, both these coins are hardly correlated with BTC, with MELANIA even showing long-term negative correlation. Therefore, if BTC corrects, at least MELANIA might get a positive boost.

BTC Correlation: Defillama

Both tokens are set up structurally. MELANIA has a bullish pattern but weak participation. TRUMP has stronger whale backing but fading retail activity, courtesy of falling DEX trades.

For either rally to happen, volume must arrive before or during the documentary release, not after. Otherwise, both risk short-lived spikes followed by exhaustion.

The crypto market will welcome tokens worth more than $464 million in the final week of January 2025. Major projects, including Sign (SIGN), Kamino (KMNO), and Jupiter (JUP), will release significant new token supplies. 

These unlocks, worth millions, could introduce market volatility and influence short-term price movements. So, here’s a breakdown of what to watch.

1. Sign (SIGN)

Unlock Date: January 28

Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 290 million SIGN

Released Supply: 1.64 billion SIGN

Total Supply: 10 billion SIGN

Sign is an omni-chain attestation protocol. It allows users and enterprises to create secure and verifiable attestations of claims or assertions.

On January 28, the team will unlock 290 million SIGN worth $11.61 million. The tokens account for 17.68% of the released supply.

SIGN Crypto Token Unlock in January. Source: Tokenomist

The team will direct 150 million altcoins towards community incentives and 45 million to the ecosystem. Furthermore, the foundation will receive 95 million SIGN. 

2. Kamino (KMNO)

Unlock Date: January 30

Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 229.17 million KMNO

Released Supply: 6.23 billion KMNO

Total supply: 10 billion KMNO

Kamino Finance is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol on the Solana (SOL) blockchain that specializes in borrowing, lending, and liquidity provision.

On January 30, Kamino will unlock 229.17 million KMNO tokens. The tokens are valued at approximately $10.07 million and represent 3.68% of the released supply. 

KMNO Crypto Token Unlock in January. Source: Tokenomist 

The team will distribute most of the unlocked tokens, 145.83 million KMNO, to key stakeholders and advisors. Additionally, Kamino will award 83.33 to core contributors.

3. Jupiter (JUP)

Unlock Date: January 28

Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 53.47 million JUP

Released Supply: 3.27 billion JUP

Total supply: 7 billion JUP

Jupiter is a decentralized liquidity aggregator on the Solana blockchain. It optimizes trade routes across multiple decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to provide users with the best prices for token swaps with minimal slippage. 

On January 28, Jupiter will unlock 53.47 million JUP tokens, valued at approximately $9.94 million, representing 1.7% of its released supply. This unlock follows a monthly cliff vesting schedule. 

JUP Crypto Token Unlock in January. Source: Tokenomist 

Jupiter has allocated the tokens primarily to the team (38.89 million JUP). Furthermore, Mercurial stakeholders will get 14.58 million JUP altcoins.

In addition to these three, Optimism (OP), Treehouse (TREE), and Zora (ZORA) will also experience new supply entering the market.

This week, investors in Bitcoin, gold, and silver are closely monitoring key US economic signals that could sway market sentiment and asset prices.

With Bitcoin hovering around $88,000, gold nearing $5,000 per ounce, and silver surpassing $100 per ounce amid ongoing safe-haven demand, these events carry significant implications.

4 US Economic Data Posts to Influence Investor Sentiment This Week

The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains pivotal. Lower rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin while reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Conversely, signs of economic strength or persistent inflation could pressure these assets by supporting higher rates.

Earnings from tech giants may also influence broader risk appetite, potentially spilling over into crypto and precious metals markets.

As global uncertainties persist and amid possible US government shutdown, the following indicators will shape short-term trajectories for these alternative investments.

US Economic Events to Watch This Week. Source: Trading Economics Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) and Powell Press Conference

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision on January 28, 2026, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, is poised to be a major catalyst for Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices.

Current expectations overwhelmingly point to the Fed holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. All 100 economists in a recent Reuters poll anticipate no change, citing strong economic growth.

Against this backdrop, markets assign a 97.2% probability to this pause, as recent rate cuts in late 2025 have stabilized conditions.

Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

JPMorgan forecasts the Fed will remain on hold through 2026, potentially hiking in 2027 if inflation reaccelerates.

For Bitcoin, a dovish pause, signaling future cuts, could fuel upside, as lower rates enhance risk appetite and liquidity. Historically, this has boosted crypto during easing cycles.

However, hawkish rhetoric from Powell on persistent inflation might trigger sell-offs, given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to monetary tightening.

“The market has fully priced in no rate cut… Why is this? – Low inflation – Better than expected GDP – Job numbers just mediocre. Pay attention to Powell’s speech and the guidance moving into 2026 instead,” commented analyst Mister Crypto.

Gold and silver, often viewed as inflation hedges, typically rise when rates fall, as reduced opportunity costs reduce their opportunity costs. A hold could stabilize them near records, but confirmation of no cuts might cap gains.

With gold up over 18% year-to-date to around $5,096 and silver surging 53% to $108, any hint of prolonged higher rates could pressure these metals by strengthening the dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC), Gold (XAU), and Silver (XAG) Price Performances. Source: TradingView

Powell’s comments on housing or growth will be scrutinized, as they could amplify volatility across these assets amid market-wide geopolitical tensions.

Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday’s release of initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24, 2026, will provide fresh insights into the health of the US labor market. This could directly influence sentiment around Bitcoin, gold, and silver.

Forecasts vary: RBC Economics predicts 195,000 claims, below the prior week’s 200,000, while market bets on platforms like Kalshi center on 210,000 or higher.

Recent data shows claims steady at 200,000 for the week ending January 17, signaling low layoffs and a resilient economy. The four-week average has dipped, reinforcing stability.

Lower-than-expected claims could bolster perceptions of economic strength, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. This could pressure Bitcoin downward as higher rates curb risk-taking in crypto.

Conversely, a spike might signal softening, prompting dovish bets and lifting BTC prices, as seen in past instances where weak labor data fueled rallies.

For gold and silver, strong data might weigh on prices by supporting a hawkish Fed stance, increasing opportunity costs. However, if claims rise, these metals could gain as safe havens amid uncertainty.

With Bitcoin stalling while gold and silver soar, this report could exacerbate volatility, especially if it diverges from the median forecast of 209,000.

US Economic Events This Week, Forecasts vs. Previous Readings. Source: MarketWatch

Such an outcome could amplify broader market reactions to Fed signals earlier in the week.

December PPI and Core PPI

Friday’s December 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI data, released on January 30, 2026, will shed light on wholesale inflation trends. Ripple effects could spill over to Bitcoin, gold, and silver.

Forecasts indicate a 0.3% monthly rise in headline PPI, up from November’s 0.2%, while year-over-year could hit 3.0%. Core PPI is seen flat monthly but up 3.5% annually.

Recent November data showed a 3.0% yearly increase, with core at 2.9% in October. Analysts expect moderation, but surprises could alter Fed expectations.

Hotter-than-expected PPI might signal persistent inflation, strengthening the case for steady or higher rates. This could depress Bitcoin by reducing liquidity appeal for speculative assets.

Softer readings, however, could boost BTC by reinforcing easing bets, as seen in past soft data rallies.  Gold and silver often benefit from inflation signals, acting as hedges. Therefore, elevated PPI could propel them higher, building on their gains so far.

Yet, if data suggests disinflation, prices might dip amid a stronger dollar. This release, following the FOMC and jobless claims, could drive weekly volatility, with PPI’s sensitivity to the business cycle making it a key barometer of these assets’ trajectories.

Various Earnings Reports (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple)

Tech giants Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla report earnings on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.  Apple will follow on Thursday, January 29, amid heightened market focus on AI and growth prospects.

These “Magnificent 7” firms are expected to drive 2026 S&P earnings growth of 14.7%, with AI themes central to commentary.

Strong results could enhance risk sentiment, lifting Bitcoin as tech optimism spills into crypto, especially given BTC’s correlation with growth stocks during bull phases.

Weak beats or guidance might trigger sell-offs, pressuring BTC downward amid broader equity declines.

For gold and silver, strong earnings may foster risk-on environments, potentially diverting flows from safe havens and capping prices. Conversely, disappointments could boost them as hedges against uncertainty.

Ethereum price is down about 1.3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past week. This is no longer just short-term volatility. On the daily chart, the ETH price has already broken below a key neckline, activating a bearish structure that warns of a potential 20% downside if support fails.

At the same time, a new variable has entered the picture. Capital appears to be rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum, helping spark a short-term rebound. Whether that rotation can turn this breakdown into a bear trap now depends on who is actually buying, who is selling into strength, and which price levels hold next.

Ethereum Breakdown Activates, But BTC-to-ETH Rotation Sparks a Rebound

Ethereum has been forming a large head-and-shoulders structure on the daily chart since late November. This pattern typically signals a bearish reversal once the ETH price breaks below the neckline, which acts as the final support holding the structure together.

That breakdown occurred on January 25, when Ethereum fell below the $2,880 neckline and briefly dipped toward the $2,780 zone. Based on the height of the pattern, this breakdown activates a downside projection of just over 20% if selling pressure accelerates.

However, the move did not extend immediately. After tagging the lows, Ethereum rebounded by roughly 4–5%.

Ethereum Breakdown Structure: TradingView

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This bounce coincided with visible rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum, highlighted by large on-chain swaps where BTC exposure was reduced in favor of ETH.

Rotation like this often appears near local lows. Traders shift capital into assets that have already corrected, betting on mean reversion. But rotation alone does not define trend direction. To understand whether this rebound is real support or just a pause, we need to look at who is participating.

Whales Sell the Bounce, But Long-Term Holders Step In

Whale behavior helps explain why the rebound has lacked strong follow-through. Whales, defined here as large holders excluding exchanges, used the bounce to slightly reduce exposure rather than add to it.

Since the rebound began, whale-held Ethereum supply slipped from roughly 100.24 million ETH to about 100.20 million ETH. This is not aggressive selling, but it shows whales are not treating the rebound as a strong accumulation zone. Instead, they appear cautious, using strength to trim risk.

Ethereum Whales: Santiment

That raises an important question. If whales are not leading the recovery, why hasn’t price rolled over again?

The answer comes from long-term holders. The 6–12 month holding cohort, which represents investors with stronger conviction and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings, has been steadily increasing its share. Since January 23, this group has grown from about 17.23% of supply to roughly 18.26%.

Long-Term Holders Selling: Glassnode

In simple terms, ETH whales are selling bounces, but long-term holders are buying dips. This transfer of supply explains why Ethereum stabilized after the breakdown rather than immediately collapsing. It also sets the stage for the next risk layer: derivatives positioning.

Short Crowding Raises Bear-Trap Risk as Ethereum Price Tests Key Levels

Derivatives data shows why the market is now extremely sensitive to small price moves. Liquidation leverage measures how much forced buying or selling would occur if the ETH price moves to certain levels.

On Binance’s ETH-USDT perpetual market, cumulative short liquidation exposure over the next seven days sits near $1.69 billion. Long liquidation exposure is closer to $700 million. That means shorts outweigh longs by well over 100%.

ETH Liquidation Map: Glassnode

When too many traders position for downside after a breakdown, even a modest price rise can force short sellers to close positions by buying back ETH, pushing the ETH price higher, via ‘short squeeze’.

Key levels now define whether this becomes a bear trap or a continuation lower.

An Ethereum price move above $3,020 would begin liquidating a large portion of short positions, potentially forcing over $700 million in short covering. Above that, $3,170 and $3,270 become the next squeeze zones. Clearing $3,270 would eliminate all the current short-side pressure.

Shorts To Get Liquidated Above $3,020: Coinglass

For the bearish structure to meaningfully weaken, Ethereum would need to reclaim $3,410, which marks the right-shoulder high.

On the downside, the risk is still clear. A clean loss of $2,780 would reaffirm the neckline break and reopen the path toward the full 20% downside target near $2,300 ($2,290 to be exact).

Ethereum is now caught between structure and positioning. The chart warns of a 20% crash, and whales are not stepping in aggressively. At the same time, long-term holders are accumulating, and shorts are heavily crowded.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

If rotation from Bitcoin continues and price pushes above $3,020, the market could flip quickly as forced buying takes over. If that fails and support at $2,780 breaks again, the bearish projection remains fully active.

A recent survey by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode reveals that around one-quarter of both institutional and non-institutional investors view the crypto market as being in a bear phase.

Despite this, investors believe Bitcoin (BTC) is undervalued. The insights highlight a complex shift in investor psychology amid mixed macroeconomic signals and ongoing volatility in early 2026.

Investors Classify the Crypto Market as Bearish

The findings are based on a survey of 148 respondents conducted between December 10, 2025, and January 12, 2026, including 75 institutional and 73 non-institutional investors. Around 26% of institutional respondents and 21% of non-institutional respondents reported that they believe the crypto market is currently in a bear market (markdown) phase.

This represents a sharp increase compared with the previous survey, where only 2% of institutional and 7% of non-institutional respondents expressed this view.

These perceptions are consistent with signals from the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. It has stayed below zero since October, which also suggests that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market.

Furthermore, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin appears to be experiencing early stages of a bear market, citing weakening demand as the primary factor behind this assessment.

“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he stated in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.

Bitcoin Undervaluation Narrative Strengthens as Investors Hold Firm

Despite this, the survey data points to a notable disconnect between short-term sentiment and long-term conviction. After the October 2025 deleveraging event, bear market perceptions rose, but actual investor actions tell a different story.

As detailed in the Coinbase and Glassnode report, 62% of institutions and 70% of non-institutional investors have either held or grown their crypto allocations since October 2025.

Additionally, 49% of institutional respondents and 48% of non-institutional respondents stated that a short-term price drop of more than 10% would not prompt any changes to their current allocations, as they intend to continue holding existing positions.

Meanwhile, 31% of institutional investors and 37% of non-institutional investors indicated they would buy the dip under such conditions. This confidence is further underscored by valuation views, with 70% of institutions and 60% of non-institutional investors stating that Bitcoin is undervalued.

This suggests that investors do acknowledge bearish conditions, but their actions imply long-term confidence rather than risk-off behavior. This creates a market environment characterized by caution, selective accumulation, and valuation-driven positioning rather than widespread disengagement.

Coinbase and Glassnode Share Q1 2026 Crypto Market Outlook

The respondents are not alone in maintaining a bullish outlook. David Duong, CFA, Global Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, along with an analyst from Glassnode, also noted that their view on the crypto market in Q1 2026 remains constructive.

“Our outlook on crypto markets is constructive to start the new year, even though the clouds from last yearʼs leverage-fueled liquidations have not cleared entirely,” they wrote.

They outlined several factors that support their outlook:

Supportive inflation trends: Inflation held steady at 2.7% in the latest December CPI reading, easing concerns about the potential impact of tariffs.

Resilient economic growth: As of January 14, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected real GDP growth of 5.3% for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Potential monetary policy tailwinds: The analysts suggested that the Federal Reserve will likely deliver 2 interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, as currently priced into Fed funds futures. Such easing would likely provide support for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

They also added that their outlook could become more constructive if there is major policy progress in the US, particularly around the CLARITY Act. Such developments could encourage broader participation in the crypto market and help strengthen overall investor sentiment.

“What would make us more concerned: A meaningful uptick in inflation, a spike in energy prices, or a significant flare up of geopolitical tensions could warrant a more cautious approach to risk assets,” the report read.

What the Current Crypto Market Setup Could Mean for Investors

Amid this backdrop, some crypto market participants view the current environment as an opportunity rather than a capitulation phase. Data from Santiment shows that the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios for several large-cap cryptocurrencies are negative.

According to the firm, assets such as Chainlink, Cardano, Ethereum, and XRP currently appear undervalued based on this metric, while Bitcoin is considered mildly undervalued. Santiment noted that lower 30-day MVRV readings typically suggest lower risk for adding or opening positions.

“A coin having a negative percentage means average traders you’re competing with are down money, and there is an opportunity to enter while profits are below the normal ‘zero-sum game’ level. The more negative, the more safe it is for you to buy,” the post read.

In addition, analyst CyrilXBT drew attention to the market sentiment. The analyst noted the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “fear,” but has not reached panic levels. According to CyrilXBT,

“That’s usually where boredom and frustration peak, not where markets break. Historically, this is where positioning happens quietly before direction shows itself.”

Overall, the survey results and supporting market data point to a nuanced market phase rather than outright capitulation. While a growing share of investors now identify current conditions as bearish, sustained allocations and widespread undervaluation views suggest that long-term conviction remains intact.

Nonetheless, the market remains notably volatile, with macroeconomic headwinds continuing to exert a substantial influence, highlighting the importance of maintaining caution.

Crypto funds recorded their largest weekly outflows since mid-November 2025, shedding a combined $1.73 billion. It came as investor sentiment across crypto markets remains firmly risk-off, with three factors explaining the retraction.

The scale and breadth of the withdrawals point to a market still struggling to regain confidence. This is amid stubborn macro uncertainty and fading narratives around crypto’s role as a hedge.

Crypto Outflows Reached $1.73 Billion Last Week: What You Need to Know

According to the latest CoinShares report, the sell-off was overwhelmingly concentrated in the US, which accounted for nearly $1.8 billion of total outflows.

At the asset level, the retreat was broad-based, with Bitcoin leading the drawdown with $1.09 billion in outflows.

Crypto Fund Flows Last Week. Source: CoinShares Report

Notably, this was the largest outflow into Bitcoin products since mid-November 2025. It suggests that sentiment has yet to recover from the sharp price dislocation seen in October.

Short-Bitcoin investment products recorded small inflows of $0.5 million. Still, the imbalance suggests defensive positioning rather than a conviction-driven bearish bet.

Ethereum followed closely behind, posting $630 million in outflows, while XRP saw a more modest $18.2 million in outflows from investment products.

Together, the data signals that selling pressure is not isolated to a single narrative or token. Instead, it reflects a broader recalibration of crypto exposure across portfolios. There were, however, a few notable exceptions.

“Solana bucked this trend with inflows of $17.1 million, while others saw minor inflows, notably Binance ($4.6 million) and Chainlink ($3.8 million),” read an excerpt in the report.

These allocations suggest that pockets of the market are still drawing interest, particularly among investors seeking relative strength or ecosystem-specific catalysts.

Three Core Forces Shaping Investor Behavior

Notably, the crypto fund flows last week mark a stark revision of what markets saw the week ending January 17. As BeInCrypto reported, crypto funds recorded inflows of up to $2.17 billion, with Bitcoin leading the fray.

Crypto Fund Flows Two Weeks Ago. Source: CoinShares Report

Against this backdrop, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, highlights three fundamental forces driving the crypto outflows.

Dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts

First, dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts have eroded one of crypto’s most important bullish macro tailwinds. Data on the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a meager 2.8% chance that the Fed will cut rates.

Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

As markets push back the timeline for monetary easing, speculative assets, including digital assets, have faced renewed pressure, particularly from institutional allocators sensitive to real yields and liquidity conditions.

Negative price momentum

Second, negative price momentum continues to reinforce bearish positioning. The failure of major cryptos to establish sustained upside since the October 2025 drawdown has kept trend-following and risk-managed strategies on the sidelines.

This overhanging bearish sentiment would amplify crypto outflows during every possible period of weakness.

Crypto’s failure to capture the debasement trade

Third, Butterfill cites growing disappointment that digital assets have not yet participated in the debasement trade.

Despite persistent fiscal deficits, elevated government borrowing, and concerns about long-term currency dilution, crypto has so far failed to reclaim its narrative as a hedge against monetary debasement decisively.

According to Butterfill, this prompts some investors to question its near-term role in diversified portfolios.

“Dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum, and disappointment that digital assets have not participated in the debasement trade yet have likely fueled these outflows,” the CoinShares executive wrote.

Taken together, the latest outflows reflect a market still searching for a catalyst. Until macro expectations shift, price momentum stabilizes, or crypto convincingly reasserts its macro relevance, crypto funds may remain under pressure.

The crypto market took a turn for the worse in the last few days and while the macro financial conditions are showing signs of improvement. Nevertheless, altcoins are leaning more on the external network developments to turn for the better.

BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins that could note a shift in the last week of January.

Hedera (HBAR)

HBAR trades near $0.1058 at the time of writing, extending a downtrend that began more than three months ago. Persistent bearish market conditions have slowed Hedera’s growth. Price action remains under pressure, reflecting cautious sentiment as investors assess whether the prolonged decline is nearing exhaustion.

Despite weakness, signs of accumulation are emerging. The Money Flow Index has turned higher, indicating rising buying pressure and fading sell-side momentum. This shift suggests dip-buying activity is increasing. If sustained, HBAR could attempt a break above $0.109, opening the path toward $0.114 and $0.120.

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HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk remains if key support fails. A decisive move below the $0.103 level would weaken the structure. Under that scenario, HBAR could slide toward $0.099 or lower, invalidating the bullish thesis and extending the broader downtrend.

River (RIVER)

RIVER surged 198% over the past week, trading near $80 at the time of writing. The rally pushed the altcoin to a new all-time high of $84 during intraday trading. Strong momentum reflects aggressive buying as traders rotated into high-performing assets amid improving market sentiment.

Technical indicators confirm the bullish trend. The Parabolic SAR remains below the candlesticks, signaling an active uptrend. Sustained capital inflows continue to support price expansion. If momentum holds, RIVER could extend gains toward the $100 psychological level and potentially reach the $115 target.

RIVER Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk emerges if profit-taking accelerates. Heavy selling could break the $60 support level, weakening the structure. Under that scenario, RIVER price may retrace sharply toward $36, invalidating the bullish thesis and signaling a deeper corrective phase.

US Oil (USOR)

US Oil (USOR) is set to launch next week as a decentralized on-chain reserve index on Solana. The token offers digital exposure to physical oil reserves, using transparent supply reconciliation and market feeds to ensure security and accountability.

Fundamentals appear strong, with 96% of USOR’s supply currently locked. Heightened geopolitical focus on US control over Venezuelan oil adds relevance. These dynamics position USOR as one of the most closely watched altcoins heading into late January and early February.

“Extreme fear” sentiment has returned to the market in the final week of January. This mood has led to short positions dominating. However, multiple data points suggest that several altcoins could trigger large-scale liquidations driven by their own specific factors.

This week, altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and River (RIVER) could collectively cause nearly $5 billion in liquidations. Here is why.

1. Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum’s 7-day liquidation map shows a severe imbalance between the potential cumulative liquidations of short positions and those of long positions.

Specifically, if ETH rebounds to $3,200 this week, short sellers could face liquidation losses exceeding $4.8 billion.

ETH Exchange Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

There are clear reasons for traders to be cautious. Analyst CW, using Ethereum Whale vs. Retail Delta data, indicates that whales have regained control of ETH over the past week. The metric has flipped from negative to positive and continues to rise sharply.

Ethereum Whale vs Retail Delta. Source: Coinglass

“Retail investors are being liquidated, while whales are increasing their long positions. The ones who suffer from this decline are retail investors. Whales will continue to instill fear until they give up,” analyst CW said.

A recent BeInCrypto report also shows that while ETH dropped below $3,000, many whales increased their accumulation. This behavior could fuel a rebound and inflict heavy losses on short positions.

2. Chainlink (LINK)

Like ETH, LINK is also experiencing an imbalance on its liquidation map. Negative sentiment across the altcoin market in late January has pushed derivatives traders to allocate more capital and leverage into LINK short positions.

As a result, these traders would suffer larger losses if LINK recovers. If LINK rebounds to $13 this week, the total potential cumulative liquidation of short positions could exceed $40 million.

LINK Exchange Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

Meanwhile, exchange data shows that LINK reserves have hit a new monthly low in January, according to CryptoQuant. The chart indicates that despite falling prices, investors continue to accumulate LINK and withdraw it from exchanges. This behavior reflects long-term confidence in the asset.

LINK Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.

In addition, data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment identifies LINK as one of the undervalued altcoins following the recent market downturn.

If accumulation pressure strengthens while prices decline, an unexpected rebound could occur. Such a move would increase liquidation risk for LINK short sellers this week.

3. River (RIVER)

River is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that creates a chain-abstraction stablecoin system. It allows users to deploy collateral on one blockchain and access liquidity on another without using bridges or wrapped assets.

RIVER’s market capitalization has moved against the broader market and reached a new high above $1.6 billion. Just one month ago, its market cap was below $100 million.

This rapid surge has driven many traders into FOMO behavior. As a result, long positions now dominate, potentially leaving the long side with a significant liquidation value.

RIVER Exchange Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

If RIVER moves against expectations and drops below $60 this week, long positions could suffer liquidation losses of up to $35 million.

Is this scenario possible? On-chain data provides several warning signals. Etherscan data shows that the top five River wallets control more than 96.6% of the total supply, indicating extreme concentration.

TOP 5 RIVER Token Holders. Source: Etherscan

“Its controlled by insiders, that’s the tweet. Keep manipulating. It started with MYX, COAI, AIA and ended up at almost zero. Be cautions,” investor Honey said.

While some investors remain confident that RIVER will soon reach $100, others have begun to express doubt and fear a price reversal. Such a reversal could trigger significant liquidation risk for RIVER long positions.

These altcoins illustrate different market dynamics in the altcoin space at the end of January. Analysts broadly agree that the altcoin market is becoming more selective. Only assets that attract institutional interest are likely to sustain capital inflows and long-term growth.

Zcash price has been under steady pressure over the past two weeks, and the broader structure now leans decisively bearish. Since mid-January, ZEC has slipped into a breakdown path that points toward a potential 35% decline if key levels fail.

At the same time, not all signals are aligned. Some large holders are still adding exposure, and short-term momentum indicators suggest dip buying has not fully disappeared despite quick exits. Whether Zcash stabilizes or continues lower now depends on how the price reacts around a few critical levels.

Breakdown Structure Points Toward a 35% Decline

Zcash’s daily chart shows that the bear-flag breakdown began on January 16, when the price fell below the $414 zone. This move marked a loss of the prior consolidation range and confirmed a bearish continuation structure.

Based on the height of the prior range, the pole of the bear-flag and the breakdown projection, the structure points toward a downside target near $266. That implies a potential decline of roughly 35% from the breakdown area.

ZEC Breakdown Structure: TradingView

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This is no longer a theoretical risk. The ZEC price has already moved in line with the projection, indicating that sellers remain in control of the broader trend.

However, structure alone does not explain why the price has not collapsed faster. For that, we need to look at momentum and capital flow.

Large Holders Step In, But Retail Conviction Stays Weak

Despite the bearish structure, Zcash has seen a short-term rebound of roughly 9% from the January 25 low. This bounce aligns closely with changes in the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF.

CMF measures whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF rises, it suggests buying pressure is increasing. When it falls below zero, it signals net outflows.

Recently, ZEC’s CMF broke above a descending trendline that had capped it for weeks. This shift helped fuel the short-term rebound. However, CMF is still below the zero line. That means buying pressure exists, but it is not yet strong enough to reverse the broader trend.

A similar CMF break above zero previously led to a rally of around 31%. Therefore, to nullify the breakdown path, CMF’s zero reclaim is critical.

CMF Breaks Out: TradingView

On-chain holder data adds more nuance. Over the past 24 hours, whale and mega-whale addresses increased their holdings by roughly 5.96% and 1.39%, respectively. This accumulation likely explains why CMF is improving. Large holders appear willing to buy into weakness.

ZEC Whales: Nansen

Retail behavior looks very different. Spot flow data shows that after a brief period of outflows, net inflows have returned during the rebound. In simple terms, when the price bounced nearly 9% from yesterday’s low, selling pressure increased to almost $9 million. That suggests many participants, possibly retail, are using bounces to reduce exposure rather than add to it.

Spot Inflows: Coinglass

This split explains the mixed signals. Whales are supporting the ZEC price at the margin, while retail remains cautious and opportunistic on rallies.

MFI Shows Dip Buying Still Exists, But Zcash Price Structure Sets the Rules

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, helps clarify this contradiction. MFI tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume.

Between January 14 and January 25, the ZEC price trended lower, but the MFI trended higher. This bullish divergence shows that dip buying has been present even as the price declined. It helps explain why ZEC has not seen a straight-line breakdown despite the bearish structure. Based on previous charts and metrics, ‘Dip Buying’ is possibly due to the whales.

Dip Buying Remains Strong: TradingView

Still, dip buying momentum alone cannot override structure forever. The price levels now matter more than indicators.

On the downside, the $326 area is critical. This level aligns with a major Fibonacci retracement and has acted as a temporary floor. A clean break below $326 would likely accelerate the move toward $266, the main breakdown target. If selling pressure intensifies, even $250 could come into view.

Zcash Price Analysis: TradingView

On the upside, the Zcash price must first reclaim $402.

That level marks former support and near-term resistance. Above that, $449 becomes the key zone. A move above $449 would invalidate much of the bearish structure and signal that the breakdown path is losing relevance.

Wirex Limited prevented more than £180,000 in retail fraud losses in 2025 amid increased regulatory scrutiny and customer complaints tied largely to fund freezes.

The company detailed those trade-offs in its 2025 Transparency Report. In this exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, CEO Chet Shah explains the judgment calls and operational trade-offs that sit behind Wirex’s fraud controls, customer protections, and regulatory disclosures.

BeInCrypto: Few crypto firms voluntarily publish this level of operational detail, especially metrics that reflect imperfections. When you decided to include data like complaint resolution delays and FOS upholds, what was the internal debate like? And how did you weigh transparency against the risk of exposing vulnerabilities to competitors?

Chet: “There was no prolonged internal debate about being transparent. I made a commitment when I became CEO of Wirex Limited that we would earn trust through transparency. Unlike other firms that wish to portray everything perfectly, I knew that stakeholders would value an honest approach that respected the principle that to be great, we need to learn and be open.

Transparency, in my view, signals to our customers, partners, and team members that we take our responsibilities seriously and are willing to engage honestly. That approach sets a positive internal culture as well: it encourages problem-solving, learning, and collaboration rather than avoiding difficult conversations. Ultimately, I believe openness strengthens trust, reinforces accountability, and helps build a company that is resilient and respected in the long term.” 

BeInCrypto: Fund freezes appear as the leading theme in upheld complaints. When you’re balancing the imperative to stop fraud against the risk of harming legitimate customers, how do you think about that trade-off operationally? And for customers who believe they’ve been wrongly flagged, what meaningful recourse do they actually have inside Wirex today?

Chet: “We consider that trade-off every day. On one hand, we have a clear moral and regulatory responsibility to keep our customers safe and help maintain the integrity of the financial system. On the other hand, we have a duty to ensure that our services remain accessible and reliable. Striking the right balance isn’t always straightforward, and we openly acknowledge that there are times when we can improve.  

Fraud and financial crime are unfortunately widespread, and staying vigilant is essential. That vigilance sometimes means that legitimate customers experience temporary disruptions, such as fund freezes. Our goal is always to minimize that impact while fulfilling our obligations.  

For customers who believe they’ve been wrongly flagged, Wirex has a clear complaints process with strict SLAs to ensure concerns are addressed promptly and thoroughly. We aim to provide meaningful recourse wherever possible. 

At the same time, regulatory requirements mean there are limits to the information we can share during investigations — sometimes we cannot reopen accounts or explain every detail without risking compliance issues. While this can be frustrating, our approach is guided by both integrity and the safety of the broader financial ecosystem. Ultimately, we strive to be as fair, transparent, and responsive as possible while navigating these complex operational realities.” 

BeInCrypto: What reaction, if any, have you received from social media platforms about their role in fraud proliferation, and do you see any realistic path toward meaningful collaboration between fintech and Big Tech on this problem?

Chet: “Despite ongoing efforts from Wirex, other fintech companies, and industry bodies, engagement from social media platforms on this issue has so far been limited. While there is growing awareness of the role online platforms can play in the spread of fraud, translating that awareness into coordinated, large-scale action remains a challenge.  

Regulatory progress has also been gradual, as governments work to keep pace with the evolving nature of digital fraud. In the meantime, financial services firms continue to play a central role in protecting customers and investing in fraud prevention measures, even when fraudulent activity originates earlier in the customer journey.  

Looking ahead, there is a clear opportunity for closer collaboration between fintech and Big Tech. With clearer regulatory frameworks and a shared commitment to cooperation, the industry can move toward more effective, end-to-end solutions that help prevent fraud before it reaches consumers.”  

BeInCrypto: Fintech remains a heavily male-dominated industry, particularly in technical and leadership roles. Against that backdrop, Wirex reporting a 51% female workforce stands out. Was this the result of deliberate hiring and policy choices, or did your culture and remote-first model naturally change who applied? And does that balance extend into senior leadership and technical teams, or are there still structural gaps you’re actively trying to close?

Chet: “Our gender balance is not driven by quotas or headline targets, but by a consistent focus on fair, skills-based hiring and an inclusive workplace culture. We prioritise capability, work to minimise unconscious bias in recruitment, and offer flexible, remote-first roles that naturally broaden access to a wider talent pool.  

This approach is reflected across much of the organisation. As is the case across the wider industry, progress in senior leadership and highly technical roles can take longer, largely due to smaller talent pools and fewer opportunities for turnover. Rather than pursuing short-term solutions, we focus on building sustainable pipelines that support long-term diversity.  

More broadly, our ambition is to be an employer of choice for a genuinely diverse workforce. Diversity at Wirex extends beyond gender, and we aim to foster a culture that attracts, supports, and develops people from a wide range of backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives.”

BeInCrypto: When you look at the next 18 months, considering the evolving UK crypto regulatory environment, the MiCA rollout in Europe, potential macroeconomic headwinds, and the competitive dynamics in payments, what’s the challenge or uncertainty that occupies most of your strategic thinking right now?

Chet: “For a business that operates as part of a global group, one of the main challenges over the next 18 months is navigating regulatory inconsistency across jurisdictions. While regulation is advancing in many markets, each country or trading block continues to apply its own frameworks, interpretations, and timelines, each with distinct local characteristics.  

This complexity has increased following Brexit, with the UK and EU now operating under separate regulatory approaches. These differences sit alongside further divergence between European frameworks, the US, and APAC markets. Managing a global operation against this backdrop of differing regulatory expectations requires significant coordination and long-term planning.  

While local regulation is both necessary and appropriate, greater alignment around common global standards, supported by market-specific requirements, could help reduce unnecessary complexity. As it stands, regulatory approaches often focus primarily on domestic considerations, which can make global consistency more difficult to achieve. 

From a strategic perspective, balancing compliance across multiple regions while continuing to innovate remains a central focus as we look ahead.”  

BeInCrypto: You say there’s “no conclusion really” in the report, but if you had to sum up 2025 for Wirex in a single sentence, what would it be?

Chet: “2025 reinforced Wirex Limited position as a strong and resilient business, while also laying the groundwork for continued growth. We strengthened the organisation by focusing on excellence, transparency, and long-term thinking, which will continue to guide how we build and scale the business going forward.”

Read Wirex Limited’s full 2025 Transparency Report here.

XRP’s price has fallen below $2, erasing nearly all of the recovery since the start of the year. At the same time, XRP balances on several major exchanges have increased. This trend has heightened concerns about further downside risk.

The pullback has coincided with broader market weakness, as geopolitical tensions pushed investors toward risk-off positioning. However, many analysts remain optimistic about XRP in 2026.

XRP Exchange Reserves and Whale-to-Exchange Activity Surge in January

Data from CryptoQuant shows that XRP reserves on major exchanges such as Binance and Upbit increased significantly in January 2026.

XRP Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.

The chart indicates that investors have consistently transferred XRP to exchanges since the beginning of the year. As a result, balances on Binance reached 2.72 billion XRP, while Upbit held nearly 6.3 billion XRP. In total, exchange reserves now account for almost 10% of the circulating supply.

Notably, an inverse correlation between Upbit balances and the XRP price has become increasingly clear. Since Upbit reserves began rising in the first week of January, XRP has dropped from $2.40 to $1.83. This trend highlights the significant influence of Korean investors on XRP’s price action.

Another notable on-chain metric is Whale Exchange Transactions (on Binance), which measures the number of transfers between whales and exchanges. This indicator reflects how actively large holders move coins in and out of trading platforms.

XRP Whale to Exchange Transaction. Source: CryptoQuant

Rising exchange reserves combined with increased whale transactions could intensify selling pressure. The data suggests that more whales may be moving XRP onto exchanges.

In addition, XRP ETFs have recorded only two days of outflows since their November 2025 launch. The first came on January 7, when $40.80 million was withdrawn from the funds. The second—and largest ever—occurred on January 20, with $53.32 million in outflows primarily from Grayscale’s GXRP. The January 20 selloff was largely driven by President Trump’s tariff threats against European NATO members, which triggered a broad risk-off move across US markets.

Total XRP Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SoSoValue

A recent BeInCrypto analysis notes that when capital inflows stall and turn negative, it often signals a pause or pullback in institutional demand.

Meanwhile, XRP has erased most of its early-year rebound and is now trading near the critical $1.88 support level. Previous analyses warned that a breakdown below this level could trigger a further 45% decline, potentially pushing the price below $1.

Despite these risks, several positive factors may help XRP absorb selling pressure. A recent report from Token Relations highlights a notable improvement in XRP ETF trading volumes in January. The report also points to rising demand for DeFi products on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

XRP Spot ETF Trading Volume. Source: Token Relations

“December 2025 saw $483 million in XRP ETF inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.09 billion in outflows during the tax-loss harvesting season. This trend suggests institutional rotation from Bitcoin to XRP ahead of 2026. Trading liquidity remained robust, consistently processing between $20 million and $80 million in daily value. Adoption exceeded expectations for altcoin ETF launches, with steady daily inflows indicating systematic allocation strategies rather than speculative trading,” Token Relations reported.

Despite these two outflow days, cumulative net inflows remain at $1.23 billion as of January 23, with total net assets of $1.36 billion. Analysts note that the outflows appear to be macro-driven rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment toward XRP.

Recently, Ripple has continued expanding RLUSD’s use cases, a stablecoin on the XRP Ledger, through partnerships with multiple countries and institutions. These positive developments could provide meaningful support for XRP’s price. If the token holds above $1.88 and ETF inflows continue, a retest of $2.40 remains possible. However, a break below support would shift focus to $1.25.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to a four-month low amid growing speculation of a “yen intervention” by the US and Japan.

Analysts warn that the DXY may face further downside pressure. Now, market attention is shifting to what the next policy moves could mean for digital assets.

Why Is The US Dollar Index (DXY) Dropping?

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against a weighted basket of six major currencies, is coming under mounting pressure in global markets. After posting its worst annual performance since 2017, the dollar has started the year on a weak footing, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

So far this month, the DXY has dropped around 1.5%. At the time of writing, the index stood at 97.1, its lowest level since September. At the same time, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver have rallied to fresh record highs.

“If the US Dollar closes red this year, it will mark its first back-to-back annual loss since 2006-2007. When you zoom out, the ‘mystery’ behind what’s happening in gold and silver becomes obvious. The denominator of ALL assets (fiat) is deteriorating,” Adam Kobeissi added.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Performance. Source: TradingView

The latest decline comes amid speculation over a potential yen intervention. Reuters reported that the New York Federal Reserve conducted rate checks on Friday, a move markets interpreted as a signal that the US could support Japan in intervening in currency markets.

Expectations of coordinated action pushed the yen to a two-month high, while weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, investors are positioning cautiously ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting and a potential announcement by the Trump administration regarding Jerome Powell’s successor.

Despite President Trump’s repeated calls for aggressive rate cuts, market expectations for an imminent policy shift remain low. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at just 2.8%.

Analysts Highlight Bearish Outlook for US Dollar Index

Against this backdrop, analysts are warning that further downside risks may lie ahead for the US Dollar Index. Market analyst Rashad Hajiyev noted that the scheduled FOMC meeting could act as a catalyst for a breakdown below the DXY’s 18-year support level.

“I believe, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee next week could be a trigger for a major breakdown with DX initially headed to $85 and then $75. Coming dollar sell-off could be catalyst for a continuation of upside move in gold and silver,” he wrote.

Dollar Index Futures Testing 18-year Support. Source: X/Rashad Hajiyev

Another analyst, Ted Pillows, highlighted a descending triangle formation on the DXY chart. This technical pattern is often associated with bearish continuation.

The structure suggests increasing downside pressure and adds to concerns that the index could see a deeper decline.

Will Yen Strength and Dollar Weakness Reshape Bitcoin’s Trajectory?

The upcoming moves in the DXY could have implications for the crypto market. Historically, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has shown an inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index. As a result, further weakness in the DXY could support upside momentum for BTC.

At the same time, a weaker dollar typically lowers borrowing costs, improves global liquidity, and encourages risk-taking, conditions that tend to favor digital assets.

Notably, one analyst highlighted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Japanese yen is currently near record highs. This suggests that a yen intervention that strengthens the currency could also support BTC.

“There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade,” the post read. “So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto. But dollar weakness creates long term upside. Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement. If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.”

Analyst Donny added that DXY movements can have immediate and delayed impacts on risk assets. He said that if DXY drops below the key 96.2 level, an effect is expected around April or May 2026.

“BTC can and IMO will still play out to the upside soon as I’m expect a mean reversion move alongside MSTR. But to know DXY is nuking in the background increases all-time high targets by a big margin. If we get continued downside follow through to lose the 96.2 low on DXY, expect effects to kick in around April/May. A lot of upside flowing on top of each other in the first half of 2026. Confirmed above 107.4K BTC and 231 MSTR, below 96.2 DXY,” he remarked.

The next several weeks may define both the dollar’s direction and the crypto market’s path.

XRP has remained under pressure since the start of the month, sliding into a sustained downtrend that pushed the token to a monthly low.

While the decline appears bearish on the surface, historical behavior suggests this phase may signal exhaustion rather than continuation. Such setups often precede reversals when selling pressure weakens and accumulation begins.

XRP Holders Exert Bullishness

On-chain data points to growing confidence among long-term holders. XRP’s Liveliness metric has declined sharply over the past six weeks and now sits at a two-month low. Liveliness measures whether holders are spending or holding coins. A falling value indicates accumulation rather than distribution.

Long-term holders tend to influence price direction during corrective phases. Their sustained accumulation reduces circulating supply and dampens sell-side pressure. For XRP, this behavior suggests conviction remains intact despite recent weakness, improving the probability of a recovery once broader sentiment stabilizes.

XRP Liveliness. Source: Glassnode

Momentum indicators reinforce the reversal narrative. The Relative Strength Index recently bounced from the oversold zone after dipping below the 30 threshold. RSI tracks momentum extremes, with oversold conditions often marking local bottoms rather than breakdown points.

XRP’s move into oversold territory reflects capitulation among weaker hands. The subsequent bounce suggests selling pressure has eased. Assets exiting oversold conditions frequently attempt short-term recoveries, especially when supported by accumulation from long-term holders.

XRP RSI. Source: TradingView XRP Price Breakout Likely

XRP has traded within a descending wedge since the beginning of the month. This pattern is typically considered bullish, as it reflects slowing downside momentum. Breakouts from such structures often occur when sellers lose control, and buyers regain influence.

The wedge projects an upside move of roughly 11.7% following confirmation. With XRP trading near $1.87, the technical target stands at $2.10. A more conservative outlook places confirmation near $2.03, which would validate the breakout and signal improving momentum.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The bullish thesis weakens if the price fails to break the wedge. Continued bearish pressure could drag XRP toward $1.79. A deeper slide may extend losses to $1.75, invalidating the reversal setup and reinforcing the broader downtrend.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has publicly reversed a nearly decade-old stance, signaling a major shift in thinking about blockchain self-sovereignty.

In a recent post on X (Twitter), Buterin said he no longer agrees with his 2017 assertion that full self-validation by users was a “weird mountain man fantasy.”

Why Vitalik Buterin Is Rethinking Ethereum’s Self-Verification Assumptions

The statement, he explained, reflects both advances in cryptography and the lessons learned from real-world network failures.

Back in 2017, Buterin debated blockchain theorist Ian Grigg over whether blockchains should commit to state on-chain. Grigg argued that blockchains could log transaction order without storing user balances, smart contract code, or storage.

Buterin opposed this approach, warning that users would either have to replay the chain history or fully trust third-party RPC providers. At the time, the Ethereum executive’s position on the matter was that these were both impractical for the average participant.

At the time, he emphasized that Ethereum’s commitment to on-chain state and the ability to verify values via Merkle proofs made trusting the network far safer than relying on a single provider.

What has changed since then is the rise of ZK-SNARKs, a cryptographic breakthrough that allows users to verify the correctness of the blockchain without re-executing every transaction.

Buterin likens the development to discovering a “pill that cures all diseases for $15”—a transformative technology that delivers security benefits without prohibitive costs.

The innovation, he argues, allows Ethereum to reconsider trade-offs between scalability, verification, and decentralization that were grudgingly accepted in the past.

The “Mountain Man” Option: Ethereum’s Safety Cabin for a Decentralized Future

Buterin also highlighted the importance of real-world resilience.

“Sometimes the P2P network goes down. Sometimes latency spikes 20x. Sometimes a service you rely on shuts down. Sometimes miners or stakers concentrate power, and intermediaries censor applications,” he wrote.

In these scenarios, users must retain the ability to directly verify and use the chain without “calling the devs,” ensuring self-sovereignty even when assumptions break.

This principle underpins his renewed advocacy for what he calls the “Mountain Man” option. While full self-verification is not meant as a daily lifestyle, it serves as a critical fallback and a bargaining chip, a kind of ultimate safety cabin for Ethereum.

Much like BitTorrent constrained streaming platforms to offer better terms to consumers, the Mountain Man’s cabin provides Ethereum users with leverage and security amid technological and political uncertainty.

In essence, Buterin’s rethink is both technical and philosophical. ZK-SNARKs remove the previous barriers to self-verification, while practical experience has shown that centralization risks, network failures, and censorship are real threats.

By maintaining the Mountain Man option, Ethereum preserves the network’s long-term resilience and self-sovereign ethos.

Buterin’s reversal suggests that assumptions that once guided design decisions are no longer fixed, and maintaining strong fallbacks is essential for a decentralized future.

Whales are pulling Ethereum (ETH) in opposite directions in late January 2026. On-chain data shows large holders actively rotating capital while others accumulate ETH on dips, highlighting a growing tug-of-war between distribution and long-term positioning.

The contrast comes as market pressure continues to weigh on the second-largest cryptocurrency, which has dropped over 10% in the past week.

What Are Ethereum Whales Doing Amid January Market Pressure?

Data from BeInCrypto Markets data revealed that Ethereum has erased all its early 2026 gains. The second-largest cryptocurrency is down nearly 5% year-to-date, as it continues to struggle below $3,000.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was trading at $2,863.66, down 2.69% over the past 24 hours.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Against this backdrop, whale behavior appears increasingly split. On the accumulation side, Lookonchain reported that OTC whale address 0xFB7 purchased 20,000 ETH worth $56.13 million.

Over the past five days, the same whale has accumulated a total of 70,013 ETH, valued at approximately $203.6 million. The trend of accumulation is not new.

As previously reported by BeInCrypto, Ethereum whales added more than 350,000 ETH in a single day last week. Furthermore, CryptoQuant data shows that Ethereum exchange reserves have continued to decline.

This suggests reduced sell-side supply and reinforces the view that large holders are moving ETH off exchanges into longer-term storage. At the same time, capital rotation has also been evident among large holders.

President Trump-backed DeFi project World Liberty Financial shifted its exposure from Bitcoin (BTC) to Ethereum, swapping 93.77 WBTC, worth $8.08 million, for 2,868 ETH. Another whale address, 0xeA00, has offloaded 120 BTC, valued at $10.68 million, and rotated into 3,623 ETH.

Nonetheless, not all whale activity points bullish. An early Ethereum whale wallet, 0xb5Ab, deposited 50,000 ETH, worth $145.25 million, into Gemini after 9 years of inactivity.

“This address withdrew 135,000 ETH ($12.17 million) from the Bitfinex exchange 9 years ago, when the ETH price was about $90. The current price has risen 32 times compared to then. After transferring out 50,000 ETH today, this address still holds 85,000 ETH ($244 million),” analyst EmberCN added.

Large transfers to exchanges often raise concerns about potential selling pressure, as they can indicate that long-term holders are preparing to realize profits, rebalance portfolios, or reallocate capital.

Lookonchain also highlighted the selling activity of address 0x3c9E, labelled the “buy high, sell low” whale. Over the past three days, the wallet offloaded 5,500 ETH worth approximately $16.02 million at an average price of $2,912. Notably, the same address had bought 2,000 ETH just five days earlier at higher levels, near $2,984.

Ethereum Network Activity Signals Underlying Strength

Amid mixed whale behavior and subdued price performance, Ethereum’s network fundamentals are flashing a bullish signal. CryptoOnchain noted that the seven-day simple moving average of Ethereum active addresses has climbed to an all-time high of 718,000.

“Crucially, the chart highlights a distinct Bullish Divergence between price action and network activity. While the price of Ethereum (ETH) remains in a consolidation phase, the number of active participants has skyrocketed,” the post read.

CryptoOnchain stressed that the increase indicates that, even amid ongoing volatility, Ethereum’s core network activity and utility remain strong. The analysis added that similar divergences in the past have acted as signals of upward price momentum.

“Whether driven by Layer-2 adoption, renewed DeFi activity, or fresh retail interest, the data indicates that the network is vibrant. The market may soon begin to re-price ETH to reflect this record-breaking fundamental growth,” the analyst wrote.

On the technical front as well, analysts point to several signals suggesting Ethereum is poised for an upward move.

The mix of record active users, shrinking exchange reserves, and technical signals makes the case for Ethereum stronger. Still, overall crypto trends and macro conditions could likely impact the timing of any significant move.

Bitcoin is down just over 1% in the past 24 hours, but the bigger story is not the daily move. Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price came dangerously close to confirming a bearish breakdown before staging a short-term rebound.

A technical signal had been building for days, and on-chain data now shows that selling pressure is easing. Still, major risks remain. Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or slides toward $78,000 now depends on how the BTC price reacts at several key levels.

Rebound Emerges as Selling Pressure Fades Near Breakdown Zone

Bitcoin is still trading inside a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This pattern often signals a bearish reversal once the price breaks below the neckline.

For Bitcoin, that neckline sits near the $86,100 zone. On January 25, BTC briefly dipped into this area before rebounding. A clean daily close below this zone would activate a projected downside move of roughly 10%.

The rebound, however, was supported by a key momentum signal.

Between December 18 and January 25, Bitcoin’s price formed a higher low while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a lower low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains to losses. When price holds up while RSI weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is slowing. This is known as a hidden bullish divergence and typically precedes short-term rebounds rather than trend reversals.

Weak BTC Price Structure: TradingView

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On-chain data confirms this cooling sell pressure.

The Spent Coins Age Band, which tracks how many coins of all holding ages are being moved on-chain, has dropped sharply. Coin movement fell from roughly 27,000 to almost 7,690, a decline of about 72%. When fewer coins move, it usually means fewer holders are selling. This aligns closely with the RSI signal and explains why the Bitcoin price bounced rather than breaking down immediately.

Coin Activity Dips: Santiment

But easing sell pressure alone does not guarantee safety for this Bitcoin price prediction. That leads directly to the next risk layer.

ETF Outflows and Paper Profits Show Downside Risk Has Not Cleared

While sellers appear to be tiring, buyers are not stepping in with conviction.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded daily net outflows for multiple consecutive sessions. Persistent outflows suggest institutional demand remains weak. Historically, rebounds that occur without ETF support tend to stall rather than expand into sustained rallies.

Negative ETF Flows: SoSo Value

Profit dynamics also remain unfavorable.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on, on average. A higher reading means more holders are in profit and may be tempted to sell. Bitcoin’s NUPL currently sits near 0.35, still way above the capitulation zone.

NUPL Still High For BTC: Glassnode

Previous local bottoms formed when NUPL fell closer to 0.33–0.34, notably in late November and mid-December. Since NUPL is still above those levels, it suggests some profit-taking pressure may remain before a durable bottom forms.

Crypto analytics firm Alphractal also highlights the NUPL concern for BTC:

In simple terms, sellers may be slowing down, but they are not done. This makes the next resistance zones especially important.

Cost-Basis Walls Explain The Bitcoin Price Prediction

To understand how far this BTC price rebound can go, cost-basis data provides clarity.

A cost-basis heatmap shows price levels where large amounts of Bitcoin were previously bought. These zones often act as resistance because holders sell when the BTC price returns to their break-even levels.

The strongest overhead wall sits between $90,168 and $90,591, with a heavy concentration around $90,550, a level highlighted on the price chart. This is the first major barrier the rebound must clear.

Key BTC Cluster: Glassnode

If Bitcoin moves above $90,550, the next critical level is $91,210. A reclaim of this level would break the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders pattern (previously highlighted) and significantly weaken the bearish setup.

However, the broader structure only turns neutral if Bitcoin can reclaim the $97,930 region. Until then, the pattern remains vulnerable.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the Bitcoin price prediction risk remains clear. A daily close below $86,100–$85,900 would confirm the breakdown and reopen the path toward $78,000, aligning with the pattern’s full downside projection. That’s 10% from the neckline and over 11% from the current BTC price level.

Japan is set to legalize cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 2028, marking a major shift in Asia’s second-largest economy toward mainstream crypto adoption, according to a Nikkei report.

With a proposed tax cut from 55% to 20% and major asset managers preparing products, Japan is positioning itself as a late but potentially significant entrant in Asia’s fragmented crypto ETF landscape.

Japan’s Regulatory Overhaul

The FSA plans to amend the Investment Trust Act’s enforcement order by 2028. Cryptocurrencies would be added to the list of eligible “specified assets” for investment trusts. After Tokyo Stock Exchange approval, investors could trade crypto ETFs through standard brokerage accounts. The structure would mirror existing gold and real estate ETFs.

Nomura Asset Management and SBI Global Asset Management are already preparing to develop products ahead of the regulatory changes. Industry estimates suggest Japan’s crypto ETF market could reach ¥1 trillion ($6.7 billion) in AUM. The projection is based on comparisons with the US market. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $120 billion in assets.

Tax Cut from 55% to 20%

Perhaps the most significant change involves taxation. The FSA plans to submit legislation to the Diet in 2026. The bill would reclassify cryptocurrencies under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This would reduce the maximum tax rate on crypto gains from 55% to a flat 20%, aligning crypto gains with those of stocks and investment trusts.

The current tax burden has been a major deterrent for Japanese investors, many of whom have hesitated to realize gains on their crypto holdings. The proposed rate cut could unlock significant pent-up demand.

Investor Protection Framework

Japan’s approach reflects lessons learned from recent market turmoil. The FSA will require trust banks handling ETF custody to implement strict security protocols, addressing concerns heightened by the 2024 DMM Bitcoin hack that resulted in ¥48.2 billion in losses.

Asset managers and securities firms must also enhance risk disclosures and operational safeguards ahead of the 2028 launch.

Asia’s Fragmented Crypto ETF Landscape

Across the region, regulatory approaches vary widely.

Hong Kong remains Asia’s only market with spot crypto ETFs available to retail investors, having launched six Bitcoin and Ether products in April 2024 and adding Solana ETFs in October 2025. Assets under management have reached approximately $500 million—a fraction of US levels.

South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party is pushing ahead with its own Digital Asset Basic Act through a dedicated task force. The party aims to finalize a draft by month-end. However, the timeline remains uncertain ahead of the June local elections, with discussions on a Bitcoin spot ETF—a key campaign promise of President Lee Jae-myung—potentially delayed.

Taiwan expanded access in February 2025, allowing domestic investment trust funds to invest in overseas passive crypto ETFs. The FSC is also advancing a dedicated crypto law, with Chairman Peng Jin-lung indicating a New Taiwan dollar-backed stablecoin could launch by mid-2026.

Singapore has not approved crypto ETFs for retail investors, with the Monetary Authority maintaining that digital tokens are unsuitable for retail collective investment schemes.

By waiting until 2028, Japan can learn from other markets’ experiences. But with South Korea’s ruling party pushing its own legislation and Hong Kong expanding product offerings, the regional race is far from settled.

On-chain decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator, SwapNet, has suffered a major smart contract exploit that drained nearly $16.8 million in crypto assets.

The incident highlights persistent security risks tied to token approvals and third-party routing contracts in decentralized finance (DeFi).

On-Chain DEX Aggregator SwapNet Suffers $16.8 Million Exploit

PeckShield reported that the attacker targeted SwapNet-linked activity accessible through Matcha Meta, a meta DEX aggregator built by the 0x team.

On the Base network, the attacker swapped approximately $10.5 million in USDC for around 3,655 ETH before bridging the funds to Ethereum, a common tactic used to complicate tracking and recovery efforts.

Matcha Meta articulated that the exposure did not stem from its core infrastructure. Instead, the affected users were those who had opted out of 0x’s One-Time Approval system, a security feature designed to limit ongoing token permissions.

Users who disabled this option granted direct approvals to underlying aggregator contracts, including SwapNet’s router, which ultimately became the attack vector.

“We are aware of an incident with SwapNet that users may have been exposed to on Matcha Meta for those who turned off One-Time Approvals,” Matcha Meta said in a statement.

The platform confirmed it is coordinating with the SwapNet team, which has temporarily disabled the affected contracts while investigations continue.

As a precaution, Matcha Meta urged users to immediately revoke approvals to individual aggregators outside of 0x’s One-Time Approval framework.

The platform highlighted SwapNet’s router contract (0x616000e384Ef1C2B52f5f3A88D57a3B64F23757e) as the most urgent approval to revoke. Failure to do so could leave wallets exposed even after the exploit has been contained.

DeFi’s Security Trade-Offs: Convenience vs. Safety Amid Rising Smart Contract Exploits

The incident reflects a longstanding trade-off in DeFi between convenience and security. One-Time Approvals require users to approve each transaction individually, reducing persistent attack surfaces. However, it also adds friction for frequent traders.

Unlimited approvals, while faster, grant smart contracts enduring access to user funds. However, this arrangement becomes dangerous when those contracts are compromised.

SwapNet has not yet released a full technical post-mortem or indicated whether affected users will be compensated. This leaves open questions around accountability and recovery.

The lack of immediate clarity is likely to intensify scrutiny around approval practices and aggregator integrations across the DeFi ecosystem.

Another Ethereum Exploit Highlights Risks of Unverified, Closed-Source Contracts

The exploit comes amid a broader pattern of smart contract attacks and security incidents in the crypto market.

On the same day, security auditor Pashov flagged a separate Ethereum mainnet exploit involving roughly 37 WBTC, worth over $3.1 million.

This was linked to a closed-source, unverified contract deployed just 41 days earlier. The contract published only non-human-readable bytecode, preventing public review.

Together, the incidents highlight abundant fertile grounds for attackers in DeFi. These are:

Unverified code

Persistent approvals, and

Complex routing layers.

Despite years of audits and security improvements, DeFi continues to grapple with structural vulnerabilities. This places the burden on developers and users to balance usability with risk management.