Bitcoin decreased by about 6.5% this week but there has not been a wave of panic selling, indicating that the market is undergoing a controlled adjustment rather than a panic.
The slowdown of BTC occurs against the backdrop of renewed monetary tensions, as U.S. policymakers publicly pay attention to the weakening of the yen for the first time in over a decade, causing macroeconomic risks to spill over into the cryptocurrency market.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin decreased this week but selling pressure eased quickly, with no signs of 'capital flight'.
The Japanese yen is back in focus following what is seen as a warning signal from the New York Fed.
Recent data shows BTC reacts more to 'the time of the week' rather than to fixed price levels.
The Japanese yen returns to the focus of global macro risk.
Tension around the yen increases after information that the New York Fed is checking interest rates with major banks, raising concerns about currency volatility and the possibility of intervention.
A notable macro milestone this week comes from the foreign exchange market. The Japanese yen experienced a strong one-day increase, considered 'unusual' compared to recent sessions, following reports related to the New York Fed probing/checking interest rates with major institutions. In the currency market, such movements are often interpreted as a warning signal regarding the level of accumulated tension.
Notably, for the first time in over a decade, U.S. policymakers seem to publicly express concern about the weakening of the yen. When a major currency experiences significant volatility, the level of risk transmission to risk assets (including cryptocurrencies, crypto) often increases as investors adjust positions, hedge, or reduce leverage.
Japanese bond yields are rising while the yen continues to weaken, making the market particularly sensitive. The combination of 'rising yields, weakening currency' may reflect pressure in the economy, while increasing the likelihood of policy messages or intervention actions. In crypto, this is a context in which volatility may be triggered by external factors.
The time of the week affects Bitcoin volatility more than price.
Recent data shows Bitcoin is often active mid-week, while weekends are quiet, implying that 'new' capital flows and activities of large investors are not evenly distributed throughout the days.
Short-term observations show volatility or increase around the period of 20–21/1, when short movements begin to form. Conversely, the weekend session, especially Saturday, tends to be flat within a narrow range. This suggests that the liquidity structure by calendar may be as important as technical price levels.
Analysis cited from the post on CryptoQuant emphasizes 'who' is active in each phase. Major players tend to participate mid-week, while weekends lack fresh capital, causing prices to be 'sticky' and hard to break out without clear catalysts.
Bitcoin dropped to the 88,000–89,000 USD range but is not considered bad.
BTC dropped from the mid 90,000 USD range to around 88,000–89,000 USD, but the selling pressure quickly eased and indicators suggest the market is temporarily accumulating.
In the past week, Bitcoin declined and retreated from the mid 90,000 USD range to the 88,000–89,000 USD range. The initial decline occurred quickly, but selling pressure did not last long. This price behavior aligns more with a 'correction then pause' scenario rather than a continuous sell-off.
Regarding indicators, RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating momentum has not strongly leaned towards buyers or sellers. At the same time, CMF remains slightly positive, implying that capital is still staying even as prices decrease. In summary, Bitcoin appears to be accumulating while traders await confirmation signals for the next direction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's weekly decline occurred without accompanying panic or clear signs of capital withdrawal. However, currency tension surrounding the yen could become the next macro catalyst, causing volatility to unexpectedly return and spill over into the cryptocurrency market, crypto.
Bitcoin decreases weekly but shows no signs of panic selling or 'capital flight'.
The risk from currency tension around the yen could trigger the next volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Bitcoin drop about 6.5% but is not considered a sell-off?
As the decline occurred quickly at first but the early selling pressure eased, while indicators like RSI are neutral and CMF remains slightly positive, it suggests that capital has not clearly left the market.
What causes the Japanese yen to impact the cryptocurrency market, crypto?
Major currency volatility could lead to adjustments in risk appetite across the market. As the yen creates disturbances and raises the possibility of intervention, investors may reduce leverage or rebalance portfolios, affecting crypto as well.
'The time' of the week means what for Bitcoin price volatility?
Data shows that activities are often more active mid-week, while weekends are usually quiet and lack new capital flows. Therefore, the likelihood of a significant volatility phase may depend more on the trading calendar than just on price levels.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-di-ngang-fed-canh-bao-yen/
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