Bitcoin is no longer just technology and speculation, but a fully-fledged macro asset? Polish analyst JulianWro claims that the largest cryptocurrency is now akin to gold or the S&P500 – dependent on global macroeconomics. How will the price of Bitcoin shape up in the future?
Is it time to stop comparing Bitcoin to digital gold, because Bitcoin is just Bitcoin?
Bitcoin as a macro asset. Policy takes the reins.
Polish analyst JulianWro points out a fundamental change in the way the market values Bitcoin. According to him, BTC no longer needs an explosion of network activity to grow. It has become a 'macro asset', which means it primarily reacts to monetary policy, capital flows, and institutional decisions.
Breaking moment? ETFs that have already taken over more than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. In this arrangement, it's not the number of transactions or active addresses that matters, but how large sums of money behave. Bitcoin is increasingly standing alongside the S&P 500 and gold – assets sensitive to interest rates, inflation, and central bank narratives.
Julian emphasizes that since the peak in 2021, on-chain activity has been systematically decreasing, and despite this, Bitcoin's price can still rise. This is a signal that the market has changed its mechanics. Today, the direction is determined by policy and institutional capital, not just network users.
If Bitcoin has indeed become a macro asset, its price is becoming less dependent on the network itself and more on political and economic decisions. Interest rates and central bank narratives are beginning to play a key role – announcements of rate cuts support increases, while a hard monetary policy cools the appetite for risk.
Fiscal policy and national debt are also becoming increasingly important. Growing deficits and stimulus programs amplify concerns about the value of money, which causes Bitcoin to function similarly to gold – as a hedge against long-term loss of purchasing power.
To this, we add geopolitics and regulations. International tensions, sanctions, or decisions regarding ETFs and tax laws can shift capital faster than any on-chain data. Bitcoin is increasingly reacting to central bank conferences and political decisions, rather than the number of transactions on the network.
Is this a bear market?
Despite Julian's opinions regarding the perception and classification of Bitcoin, on-chain data is still respected among investors. Therefore, he also addressed the data from Glassnode, which paints a much cooler picture of the market. Price behavior is starting to resemble the first quarter of 2022. Investors are reducing risk, and the market is moving within a narrow range between key levels.
On one hand, we have support in the region of the so-called True Market Mean (around 81,000 USD), and on the other hand, resistance defined by the acquisition cost of short-term holders – around 98-99,000 USD. This area is becoming crucial today. The lack of a lasting recovery of this level in the past has led to long consolidations.
The structure of realized losses shows that mainly investors who bought near the peaks above 110,000 dollars are capitulating. They are using every rebound to reduce exposure. At the same time, data on profit realization indicates the dominance of small profits – 0-20%. The market is playing defensively, and this data suggests that we may currently be in a bear market.
To read the latest analysis of the cryptocurrency market from BeInCrypto, click here.
