Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
Chief Investment Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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The latest update for the February @UMich Consumer Sentiment Index indicates an increase to 57.3, up from the previous figure of 56.4. Regarding the assessment of current conditions, the metric rose to 58.3 compared to the prior 55.4. In contrast, the measure for expectations dropped to 56.6, falling from the previous level of 57.
The latest figures from the University of Michigan show that one-year inflation expectations, which appear in blue, have decreased to 3.5%. In contrast, expectations for the five-to-ten-year period have risen to 3.4%.
A brand new episode of the #OnInvesting podcast is now live. In this broadcast, @KathyJones and I discuss the markets, specifically highlighting volatility on the equity side. I also conduct an interview with the ever-insightful Dennis DeBusschere @DDeBusschere22V (yes, that last name). You can listen at https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/breadth-is-back-whats-powering-markets-beneath-surface-with-dennis-debusschere
The proportion of stocks within each sector reaching new highs across different timeframes
Overview of sector and index performance covering yesterday and YTD
Regarding performance tracking, we have refreshed the index tables as well as the Mag7 chart and table. These figures now reflect market data through yesterday's close.
I have updated the MA breadth charts to include the figures through yesterday's close.
According to JOLTS data, the quits rate remained steady at 2% for the month of December.
While the month is just getting started, should the Russell 2000 manage to surpass the S&P 500 throughout February, it would signify two back-to-back months of outperformance. This particular trend has not been observed since early 2024.
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
When measured against the S&P 500, the Tech sector has completely reversed all gains dating back to last June.
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
During January, the technology sector witnessed a marked increase in public notices regarding job cuts. These recent figures are hovering near the upper limits of the range established over the last few years.
The blue trend line indicates that job openings dropped to a new cycle low during December. In parallel, the number of openings relative to unemployed workers, depicted in orange, also fell to a low for the cycle.
The most recent #MarketSnapshot video is now available for viewing. In this session, I break down the turbulent activity we have seen recently with #gold and #silver. You can watch the full update here: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-snapshot
For December, the number of job openings decreased to 6.542M, marking the lowest point recorded since 2020. This figure came in below the estimated 7.250M. Additionally, the data for the previous month was updated to 6.928M, a revision downward from 7.15M.
The JOLTS quits rate in December held steady at 2.0%.
Recent labor market statistics show that initial jobless claims have risen to 231k. This outcome is higher than the estimated 212k and exceeds the prior count of 209k. Regarding continuing claims, the current number is 1.844M, which falls short of the 1.850M estimated yet remains above the 1.819 noted previously. Geographically, the largest increases were observed in PA (+5.3k), NY (+3.4k), and MO (+2.6k). In contrast, the most significant decreases were recorded in NE (-2.2k), VA (-1.0k), and OK (-0.9k).
According to @GoldmanSachs, the trajectory of client length held in software stocks, represented by the blue line, is contrasted with the red line for semis. Notably, the supply in software on Tuesday reached the 100th percentile regarding the past five years. Additionally, IGV experienced a record volume day, a significant milestone for an instrument that has been around for 25 years.
I am excited to appear on @SchwabNetwork for #MorningTradeLive this morning. My segment is scheduled to begin at approximately 10:20am ET.
I am delighted to be joining @FerroTV, @lisaabramowicz1, and @annmarie on @bsurveillance. Please tune in to @BloombergTV at approximately 8am ET this morning.
The MA breadth charts have been refreshed to capture the data from yesterday's close.
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