ZIV OREN

A large influx of Russian gold into China has released what kind of signal? How much Russian gold has flowed into China? According to the customs statistics for 2025, the net physical import volume reached as high as 25.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 800%! Whether measured in currency or weight, this has set a new record for gold trade between China and Russia. However, how can a country under comprehensive sanctions, with hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen assets, still export gold? The answer lies in the fact that what is frozen is 'on-the-books money,' while what is exported is 'underground gold.' Indeed, half of the assets in the Russian National Wealth Fund have been frozen in Western financial institutions. However, most of its gold reserves are stored in the central bank vaults in Moscow and in secret facilities in the Far East. This physical presence does not depend on SWIFT or the US dollar clearing system; these gold bars are, in themselves, 'anti-sanction weapons.' Moreover, Russia has long been prepared. Since the Crimea incident in 2014, Russia has started a 'de-dollarization' strategy, and from 2014 to 2022, the gold reserves of the Russian central bank increased by over 300%. At the same time, it established a domestic financial information transmission system (SPFS) to replace SWIFT and promote integration with China's CIPS system, achieving direct settlement between the renminbi and gold. Therefore, when sanctions were imposed in 2022, Russia did not collapse but instead launched the 'gold breakout plan.' And China? It has consistently maintained a 'neutral trading nation' position, refraining from participating in sanctions against Russia while emphasizing that 'normal economic and trade cooperation is not disturbed.' Thus, as long as the transactions comply with Chinese customs and anti-money laundering regulations, importing Russian gold poses no legal obstacles. Next, a more crucial question arises: what exactly does Russia want to exchange for the gold it brings? Is it for renminbi? Yes, but not just that; it is exchanging for the qualification to survive. After the Western technological blockade, what does Russia lack? It lacks high-end chips, precision machine tools, automotive parts, and medical equipment. It cannot produce these itself and can only buy them. But what to do when the dollar cannot be used and the euro is monitored? Use gold to exchange for renminbi, and then use renminbi for large-scale procurement. Data shows that Russia is importing a large amount of civilian industrial equipment from China, especially automotive bearings, precision machine tools, and semiconductor raw materials. These are precisely the 'choke point' materials it is most short of under Western sanctions. Thus, a brand new trade closed loop was born: Russian gold and oil are exchanged for renminbi, and then renminbi is used to purchase industrial products. This is like a modern upgrade of 'barter trade,' without the dollar, without SWIFT, and without US oversight, business can still be conducted, and the most lethal aspect of this closed loop is that it is replicable. Zooming out, you will find that this is not just a 'bilateral game' between China and Russia; a 'great migration of gold' is happening globally. Poland increased its holdings by 102 tons over the year, becoming the largest gold buyer in the world for two consecutive years. Turkey and Kazakhstan increased their holdings by 27 tons and 57 tons, respectively, setting historical records. Central banks in Germany, Italy, and others are promoting the 'localization of gold storage,' with 59% of central banks moving their gold reserves to domestic locations. By the end of 2025, the average growth of global central bank gold reserves is expected to be 8.3%. Excluding the United States, the total value of gold held by central banks in various countries has reached $3.92 trillion, exceeding the scale of their holdings in US Treasury bonds for the first time. What does this mean? The world's confidence in the dollar is gradually being replaced by gold, and the small flame of global 'de-dollarization' is turning into a prairie fire. In the past, the world operated on a 'petroleum-dollar' cycle; now, the world is forming a new triangle of 'resources-gold-manufacturing.' And China stands at the center of this new triangle.