HNIW30 here: Crypto vet sharing no-BS insights from market trenches. Real tactics to beat volatility, minus the hype. Follow @HNIW
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Impact of the 2026 US Partial Government Shutdown on Bitcoin
As of February 1, 2026, the US government has officially entered a partial government shutdown after funding deadlines expired at midnight on January 31. This is not a full shutdown—it primarily affects agencies such as the Department of Defense, State Department, Health and Human Services (HHS), Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and Transportation. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) received a two-week extension for further negotiations on immigration enforcement reforms.
This shutdown stems from political disputes between Democrats and Republicans over ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) operations following recent controversial incidents. It is expected to be short-lived (likely ending Monday or Tuesday once the House votes on the Senate-passed funding package), and its real-world impact is limited since it began over a weekend.
So, how does this shutdown affect Bitcoin and the broader crypto market? Here’s a detailed breakdown based on current market data and historical precedents.
1. Immediate Market Reaction: Short-Term Negative As shutdown news spread and the deadline approached, Bitcoin dropped about 7% over the past week, falling from recent highs to around $83,000 (some sources report testing support at $81,000–$83,000).Ether (ETH) fell harder, down roughly 9%.Main driver: Increased macro uncertainty → Investors shift to "risk-off" mode, pulling capital from high-risk assets like crypto into USD or government bonds.Reduced liquidity and higher volatility → Crypto markets become more sensitive to sentiment swings, especially if a prolonged shutdown delays key economic data releases (e.g., jobs reports, inflation figures) that influence Fed rate decisions. Analysts note that if the shutdown drags on longer than expected, BTC could slide toward $60,000 in a worst-case scenario (though probability is low).
2. Historical Impact of Government Shutdowns on Bitcoin Longest historical shutdown (2018–2019, 35 days): Bitcoin was already in a deep bear market (dropping from $20K to $3K), but the shutdown wasn’t the primary cause—the 2017 bubble burst dominated. Traditional stocks dipped modestly, but crypto showed little direct correlation.Short 2025 healthcare-related shutdown: Impact was very mild; markets recovered quickly once resolved.General pattern: Shutdowns rarely cause lasting economic damage (previous ones cost ~$11 billion, mostly in disrupted public services). Traditional markets (S&P 500, bonds) typically see only minor volatility, while crypto—more sensitive to liquidity—can be more volatile but rebounds fast if the event ends promptly. 3. What Makes This One Different: Why Impact May Be Milder Partial & brief: Essential services (Social Security, Medicare, military core operations) continue. Most federal offices are closed over the weekend anyway, so public disruption is minimal.Already priced in: Prediction markets and analysts expect a quick resolution (low odds of lasting >4 days). The House is slated to vote early next week to reopen.Bitcoin as a potential safe haven?: Some argue that in political uncertainty, BTC could act as "digital gold"—but current sentiment remains risk-off, partly due to Fed concerns (with a potentially hawkish new chair like Kevin Warsh) reducing expected rate cuts.Biggest risk: If DHS talks fail and the shutdown extends, it could delay crypto-related legislation (e.g., stablecoin rules) or crypto-linked IPOs. Bottom Line: Not a Disaster, But Watch for Volatility
This shutdown is likely just a minor storm, with primarily short-term negative effects on Bitcoin (price dips and heightened volatility from uncertainty). If the House passes the deal quickly (as forecasted), crypto markets could rebound strongly mid-week and even retest recent highs.For BTC holders: Short term: Brace for potential further dips; consider buying the dip if resolution comes fast.Long term: Bigger drivers remain the new Fed policy and Trump administration’s crypto stance (potentially pro-crypto). Things are moving fast—keep an eye on the House vote early next week for updates! #WhiteHouseDigitalAssetReport #BTC #Binance
Longing investors saw over $2 billion liquidated in the past 12 hours.
Over the past 12 hours, total liquidation of cryptocurrency Futures Contract across the network reached $2.061 billion, primarily driven by Longing positions ($1.958 billion). Data shows that the sharp price swing wiped out more Longing than Short, with liquidations concentrated heavily in $BTC and ETH within the same timeframe. MAIN CONTENT Total liquidation in 12 hours: $2.061 billion.Longing were liquidated for $1.958 billion; Short were liquidated for $103 million.BTC liquidated for $671 million; ETH for $884 million. Liquidation of Futures Contract surged in 12 hours. Total liquidation of cryptocurrency Futures Contract across the network reached $2.061 billion in 12 hours, with Longing positions accounting for the majority. In the liquidation structure, $1.958 billion came from Longing positions and $103 million from Short positions. The large difference between Longing and Short positions reflects the downward pressure/unexpected volatility that forced many leveraged long positions to be closed within the same timeframe. The figures above are based on CoinAnk data and aggregated across the entire network, focusing on the Futures Contract market over a 12-hour timeframe. $BTC and $ETH are the focus of liquidation. In 12 hours, BTC was liquidated for $671 million and ETH for $884 million. Compared to the total liquidation of $2.061 billion across the entire network, BTC and ETH alone contributed the majority of the liquidation volume. This suggests that volatility in these two market-leading assets may have triggered a domino effect on other leveraged positions. #BitcoinETFWatch #ETH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE APPOINTED CHAIRMAN OF THE FOMC IS KEVIN WARSH
If Kevin Warsh is appointed as Chairman of the Fed (with a high likelihood based on the latest news as of January 30, 2026), the impact on the crypto market will be complex, but mainly negative in the short term due to his hawkish stance. Below is a detailed analysis based on policy perspective and historical market reactions:1. Warsh's monetary policy perspective – The main factor affecting cryptoWarsh is a typical hawkish candidate: He strongly opposes QE (quantitative easing), supports a rapid reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, and prioritizes stricter inflation control to support short-term growth.
Heka Fund, a subsidiary of Abraxas Capital, sold 2,038 BTC, worth approximately $168.21 million, on the crypto exchange Kraken two hours ago. Subsequently, the same address sent 15 million USDC to the Morpho address. and bought $XAU worth 5.3 million USDC
Watching Plasma Grow Quietly While the Market Chases Noise
Over the past year, I’ve spent a lot of time observing how different blockchain projects evolve, especially during periods when the market shifts its focus every few weeks. Some projects explode with attention and then disappear just as quickly. Others move more slowly, sometimes so quietly that most people miss what is actually happening. From my point of view, @Plasma belongs to the second group. What initially caught my attention about Plasma wasn’t a viral announcement or aggressive marketing. It was the way the project consistently framed its purpose around infrastructure rather than short-term excitement. In a space where many networks try to position themselves as “the next big thing,” Plasma seems more interested in building something that can actually support long-term on-chain activity. One thing that stands out is how Plasma approaches scalability and reliability. These topics are often mentioned across crypto, but they’re rarely treated as core design principles. Plasma, however, appears to treat them as non-negotiable foundations. That mindset matters because real usage tends to expose weaknesses very quickly. Systems that look fine under light traffic often struggle once demand increases, and fixing those problems later is usually far more difficult. From an ecosystem perspective, Plasma feels designed for builders who care about stability. Developers don’t just need speed; they need predictability. They need to know how a network behaves under stress, how it handles execution, and whether it can support complex interactions without constant workarounds. Plasma’s direction suggests an awareness of these needs, even if the progress doesn’t always come with loud announcements. The role of the native token, $XPL , also deserves attention. In many projects, the token exists primarily as a market instrument, disconnected from actual usage. With Plasma, $XPL seems more closely tied to how the network functions and how participants interact with it. This kind of integration doesn’t always generate immediate hype, but it often creates more sustainable incentive structures over time. Another aspect I find interesting is how Plasma fits into the broader evolution of blockchain infrastructure. As the industry matures, the focus naturally shifts away from experiments and toward systems that can operate continuously and reliably. Plasma appears to be positioning itself for that phase, where fundamentals matter more than narratives and long-term usability becomes the real differentiator. Of course, no project develops in isolation. Plasma is building within a competitive and fast-moving environment. But instead of reacting to every trend, it seems to be following a clearer internal logic. That consistency is easy to overlook, yet it’s often what separates networks that survive multiple cycles from those that fade after their initial moment. In my view, Plasma’s progress may not always be obvious on the surface, but that doesn’t make it insignificant. Sometimes, the most important work happens quietly, away from constant attention. For those who value infrastructure, execution, and long-term thinking, Plasma is a project worth continuing to watch closely. #Plasma
Plasma is designed with a very specific goal in mind: becoming a stablecoin-first execution layer that can support real payment activity at scale. Instead of competing as a general-purpose blockchain, @Plasma focuses on fast settlement, low transaction costs, and reliability for stablecoin transfers. This direction makes sense in a market where most on-chain volume still comes from stablecoins. As the network continues to grow, $XPL plays an important role in securing execution and aligning incentives across the ecosystem. Plasma’s progress so far shows a clear emphasis on infrastructure, not hype, which is something long-term users and builders tend to value. #plasma
A whale deposited 6 million USDC into Hyperliquid and then placed buy orders for BTC and HYPE. Chain analyst Ai Yi tracked the address 0xd90…2D975 and discovered that this address deposited 6 million USDC into Hyperliquid, then placed two buy orders: 73.46 coins (approximately $5 million) to buy when the price dropped to around [$60.555 - $75.555]; 100,000 coins (approximately $1.77 million) to buy when the price dropped to around [$15 - $20.38]
From an ordinary trader to a creator earning BNB regularly – My journey on Binance Square
10 days ago I wrote the first lines on Binance Square, at that time the views were very few and I was also very discouraged but I tried to keep writing and gradually the views increased and I felt happier. And then!!
Today I officially received 1 BNB from the creator reward program of 200 BNB from Binance Square – a very meaningful reward for my content creation efforts over the past time. This is not just money, but also a great motivation for me to continue sharing knowledge more seriously. I started participating in Binance Square as a trader wanting to learn and exchange. But gradually, I realized this is not just a forum, but a real ecosystem helping crypto creators build sustainable income.
From anxious about Short/Long to tears when seeing my name in Day 5 Winners – Receive 1 BNB
Today is a truly special day for me. When I just woke up, as usual, I picked up my phone to check notifications, I saw a lot of notifications and messages mentioning me. I was very anxious and worried (because of Long
and Short
) I tried to reassure myself that it would be fine, then saw my name on the list of those selected to receive rewards from the 200
Creator Rewards program of Binance Square, and I couldn't hold back my tears. Not because of the value of the reward (even 1 BNB is already very precious!), but because of the feeling of being recognized, of the community accepting what I have tried to share.
🌟 **THANK YOU FROM THE HEART – I HAVE RECEIVED A REWARD OF 1 BNB ON BINANCE SQUARE!** 🌟
Today I am truly happy and emotional to see my name on the list of recipients from the **Creator Rewards 200 BNB** program. I never expected my shared articles to be received so well! ❤️
**Thank you all – the wonderful Binance Square community** – for reading, liking, commenting, and interacting. Your support has helped me reach the top!
And **thank you Binance and Binance Square** for creating this meaningful playground, encouraging quality content and recognizing the efforts of creators. I will continue to strive even harder! 🚀
Congratulations, @HNIW30 @Entamoty @Miin Trading @Kasonso-Cryptography @TheBlock101 you've won the 1BNB surprise drop from Binance Square on Jan 30 for your content. Keep it up and continue to share good quality insights with unique value.
Quality is the core driving force behind Binance Square’s community growth, and I truly believe they deserve to be seen, respected, and rewarded. Starting today, I will distribute 10 BNB among 10 creators based on their content and performance through tipping in 10 days, and I encourage the community to recommend more content to us and continue to share good quality insights with unique value.
Important information: The price drop to 1011 is not due to a system failure at Binance; the platform has done everything possible to compensate for the losses.
Early in the morning on January 31, the founder of Binance, , held an English-language online Q&A on Binance Square to address recent rumors (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) from the community about Binance. Below is a record of the main statements made by CZ from BlockBeats:
Observing How Plasma Is Positioning Itself Beyond Short-Term Narratives
One thing I’ve noticed while watching @Plasma over time is that the project doesn’t try to define itself through loud promises. Instead, Plasma seems to focus on how blockchain infrastructure should actually behave when it’s pushed beyond early experimentation. A lot of networks look impressive during low usage, but the real test comes when activity increases and systems are forced to operate under pressure. Plasma appears to be designed with that reality in mind. The emphasis is not only on speed, but also on stability and predictable behavior, which are often overlooked until problems start to appear elsewhere. From a user and observer standpoint, this approach makes sense. Sustainable ecosystems are usually built by solving practical issues first, not by chasing every trending narrative. Plasma’s development direction feels more aligned with long-term usability than with short-term attention. The utility of $XPL fits naturally into this picture. Rather than being treated as a separate speculative layer, the token is part of how the network functions and aligns incentives across participants. Over time, that kind of structure tends to support healthier growth, especially as more real use cases emerge. Plasma may not dominate headlines every day, but steady progress is often what matters most in this space. For those paying attention to fundamentals, Plasma is a project worth continuing to watch closely. #Plasma
Plasma continues to push forward with its stablecoin-focused infrastructure. @Plasma is clearly prioritizing low-cost, high-throughput transfers and real payment use cases. $XPL stands out for utility, not hype. Still watching closely. #Plasma
What stands out about Vanar Chain lately is how much focus they’re putting on infrastructure for AI and autonomous execution, not just raw TPS. It feels like $VANRY is designed to secure real system-level activity, not hype. Quietly building, and @Vanarchain seems consistent with that vision. #Vanar
Why Developers Are Paying More Attention to Purpose-Built Chains Like Vanar
For developers and studios building consumer-facing applications, choosing the right blockchain has become less about buzzwords and more about reliability. Vanar Chain is increasingly interesting from this angle. Instead of marketing itself as a universal solution, @Vanarchain focuses on being a stable and performant environment for applications that demand consistency, especially in gaming and interactive digital experiences. From a builder’s perspective, predictability matters. Networks that suffer from congestion, unstable fees, or constant architectural changes make long-term planning difficult. Vanar’s positioning suggests an emphasis on providing a dependable base layer where teams can focus on product development rather than constantly adjusting to infrastructure limitations. As more developers look for chains that support real production workloads, the relevance of $VANRY becomes more closely linked to ecosystem usage and participation. Vanar Chain’s approach aligns with a broader industry trend: developers gravitating toward blockchains that prioritize execution quality over short-term attention. #vanar
I just opened a short position $PAXG a few minutes ago. I thought very carefully before opening the position and sold all the gold I had at home. To be honest, I don't really understand the gold market, I've only been following it since last year. The gold sold outside is quite a loss when bought at 18100 and sold at 17800, losing about 300k. So I opened a short position with a volume of 20k dollars as if I were playing the lottery; I will only close it when the price goes back to 4k. Saying it's like a lottery isn't quite right because I'm making decisions based on news. Thank you everyone for reading this far; if anyone shares the same thoughts as me, let's trade gold here $PAXG 👇👇👇