Tony_Nguyen88

Know what you own and why you own it.

Binaries/options aren’t shares.

ETFs aren’t precious metals.

Not your keys, not your crypto.

USD yếu – Vàng tăng – Fed giữ lãi suất: Chuyện gì đang xảy ra?

Thời gian gần đây, chúng ta đang thấy một bức tranh khá đặc biệt của thị trường vĩ mô: USD suy yếu, giá vàng tăng mạnh, trong khi Fed vẫn chưa vội cắt giảm lãi suất, dù lạm phát đã hạ nhiệt đáng kể so với đầu năm.

Về lý thuyết, lãi suất cao và lãi suất thực dương thường không có lợi cho vàng – một tài sản không tạo ra dòng tiền. Tuy nhiên, thực tế hiện tại lại cho thấy điều ngược lại. Điều này phản ánh rằng giá vàng không chỉ phản ứng với lạm phát hiện tại, mà chủ yếu với kỳ vọng chính sách tiền tệ và rủi ro hệ thống trong tương lai.

USD suy yếu phần lớn đến từ việc thị trường định giá trước khả năng Fed sẽ buộc phải nới lỏng trong các quý tới, ngay cả khi Fed vẫn giữ giọng điệu “higher for longer”. Khi niềm tin vào sức mạnh dài hạn của đồng USD giảm, dòng tiền có xu hướng tìm đến vàng như một tài sản bảo toàn giá trị, đặc biệt trong bối cảnh nợ công cao, căng thẳng địa chính trị và bất ổn tài chính toàn cầu.

Điều quan trọng cần nhấn mạnh:
👉 USD giảm không đồng nghĩa với khủng hoảng kinh tế ngay lập tức.
👉 Và vàng tăng không chỉ là câu chuyện lạm phát, mà là câu chuyện về niềm tin vào hệ thống tiền tệ.
Thị trường hiện tại có thể đang bước vào giai đoạn tái định giá (re-pricing):
• Tái định giá rủi ro vĩ mô
• Tái định giá vai trò của USD
• Và tái định giá các tài sản phòng thủ như vàng

Liệu đây có phải là “reset” của nền kinh tế?

📉 SOL/USDT – SHORT SETUP (H1)

Trend: Bearish continuation
Structure: Lower high + price below key EMAs
Confluence: EMA resistance + prior rejection

Key Swing:
• High: 128.30
• Low: 117.00

Context:
• Price failed to hold above EMA25 & EMA99
• Strong rejection from 128.3 → confirms lower high
• Current price consolidating weakly below EMAs

⸻

🔴 SHORT ZONE

124.0 – 125.2
(EMA25 ~124.1 + EMA99 ~125.1)

➡️ This zone acts as dynamic resistance on H1.

⸻

📍 Trade Plan

Entry:
• Short on pullback into 124.0 – 125.2
• Or on H1 bearish rejection candle in that zone

Stop-Loss:
• 126.5 – 127.0
• Above EMA99 + minor structure high

Targets:
• TP1: 121.7
• TP2: 119.5
• TP3: 117.0 (range low)

Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3

⸻

❌ Invalidation
• H1 close above 127.0
• Price reclaims and holds above EMA99

⚠️ Nothing is guaranteed — manage risk properly.

📉 BTC/USDT – SHORT SETUP (H1)

Trend: Bearish continuation
Confluence: Fibonacci retracement + EMA resistance

Swing:
• High: 90,600
• Low: 86,074

SHORT ZONE: 88,300 – 88,900
(Fibo 0.5 – 0.618 + EMA25 & EMA99)

Entry: Short within the zone on H1 rejection
Stop-Loss: 89,800 (above Fibo 0.786)

Targets:
• TP1: 87,700
• TP2: 86,800
• TP3: 86,100

Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 – 1:3

❌ Setup invalid if H1 closes above 89,700
⚠️ Nothing is guaranteed — risk management first.

SL ở 89430 nên ko lo j nhiều. :)

With the market increasingly pricing in the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown, this could open up short opportunities across altcoins.

Political uncertainty often leads to reduced risk appetite, tighter liquidity, and more cautious positioning. In such environments, altcoins tend to underperform Bitcoin, especially those with weaker fundamentals or high speculative flows.

If shutdown risk escalates:
• Volatility is likely to increase
• Risk assets may face distribution rather than accumulation
• Capital often rotates out of alts first
• Short-term rallies can turn into good short-entry opportunities

That said, this is not about blindly shorting. The key is waiting for confirmation — rejection at resistance, weak rebounds, declining volume, or BTC showing signs of weakness.

Also, nothing is absolute. Any unexpected positive political headline or macro shift could quickly change sentiment and trigger sharp reversals.

For now, the risk-reward for selective shorts on certain coins looks more attractive than aggressive longs — as long as risk management stays the priority.

Target $BTC
TP1:84408🚀🚀
TP2:80600🚀🚀🚀🚀

Còn thở là còn gở 🙄

Các bạn có ổn không????
Mục tiêu ==> 83600$BTC

📉 BTC/USDT – Upcoming Price Scenario

BTC is showing signs of weakness after being rejected at a strong resistance zone. The current market structure favors a deeper pullback in the short term, especially with significant liquidity resting below current price levels.

🔻 Trade Setup:
• Position: Short
• Leverage: x30
• Stop Loss: 90,500
• Take Profit 1: 83,800
• Take Profit 2: 80,650

📌 Stick to your plan, manage risk carefully, and avoid FOMO. The market will always offer new opportunities — what matters is staying in the game.

⚠️ This is a personal analysis, not financial advice.

They say i’m lucky, i tell them that’s discipline😌

Heyyyy🤟🤟🤟

In crypto, patience is often the most underrated skill.
Those who can wait through volatility, noise, and emotions are usually the ones who get rewarded in the end.
Markets move fast, but real gains come to those who stay calm, disciplined, and patient. 🚀

Cố gắng duy trì 19 điểm/ngày 🤘

Many people think that great traders are the ones who take a lot of trades.
In reality, it’s often the complete opposite.

Traders with a high win rate usually trade very little.
Some of them take only 2–3 trades per month, yet still remain consistently profitable.

Why?
• They enter trades only when the setup is crystal clear and proven
• They don’t trade out of boredom or FOMO
• They don’t feel the need to be in the market all the time
• They understand that not trading is also a trading decision

For them:

Quality matters more than quantity
Patience matters more than skill

The market will always be there.
Opportunities are endless, but high-quality setups are rare.

👉 If you’re trading too much and still losing, the problem may not be your strategy
👉 It may be that you haven’t learned how to wait

Trade less. Think more. Let your money stay longer.

In the crypto market, chasing every new trend is not always the smartest move. For many investors, focusing on Bitcoin, LINK specifically, and top 20–50 crypto projects in general can be a more realistic and sustainable approach.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains the backbone of the entire market. It’s not only the largest asset by market cap, but also where large capital flows when the market seeks relative safety. BTC often leads market cycles, and holding it helps reduce overall portfolio volatility compared to smaller altcoins.

Chainlink (LINK) is a good example of an altcoin with clear real-world utility. As a core oracle infrastructure for DeFi, LINK doesn’t rely purely on short-term narratives but on actual demand across the ecosystem. Projects like this may not explode overnight, but they tend to survive and grow through market cycles.

As for top 20–50 projects, this group sits in a balanced zone:
• Not as conservative as BTC
• Not as risky as low-cap tokens

Many of these projects already have:
• Real products
• Established communities
• Consistent capital flow

When the market expands, this group often benefits significantly.

The key is not finding “the next 10x coin,” but:
• Understanding what you’re investing in
• Managing risk properly
• Having a clear entry and exit plan

Crypto is not gambling, and it’s not driven by emotions.$BTC $LINK

$BTC 🚀🚀🚀

Will close position when go to 94450$BTC