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U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order that would impose a tariff on any goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a move that could further cripple an island plagued by a deepening energy crisis.
The order would primarily put pressure on Mexico, a government that has acted as an oil lifeline for Cuba and has constantly voiced solidarity for the U.S. adversary even as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to build a strong relationship with Trump.
Cuba relies on allies for energy
This week has been marked by speculation that Mexico would slash oil shipments to Cuba under mounting pressure by Trump to distance itself from the Cuban government.
In its deepening energy and economic crisis, fueled in part by strict economic sanctions by the U.S., Cuba has relied heavily on foreign assistance and oil shipments from allies like Mexico, Russia and Venezuela before a U.S. military operation ousted former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Since the Venezuela operation, Trump has said no more Venezuelan oil will go to Cuba and the Cuban government is ready to fall.
In its most recent report, Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex said it shipped nearly 20,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba from January through Sept. 30, 2025. That month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City. Afterward, Jorge Pinon, an expert at the University of Texas Energy Institute who tracks shipments using satellite technology, said the figure had fallen to about 7,000 barrels.
Uncertainty simmers in Mexico
Sheinbaum has been incredibly vague about where her country stood, and this week has given roundabout and ambiguous answers to inquiries about the shipments, and dodged reporters questions in her morning press briefings.
On Tuesday, Sheinbaum said Pemex had at least temporarily paused some oil shipments to Cuba. But she struck an ambiguous tone, saying the pause was part of general fluctuations in oil supplies and a “sovereign decision” not made under pressure from the U.S. Sheinbaum has said Mexico would continue to show solidarity with Havana, but didn’t clarify what kind of support Mexico would offer.
On Wednesday, the Latin American leader claimed she never said Mexico has completely “suspended” shipments and “humanitarian aid” to Cuba would continue and decisions about shipments to Cuba were determined by Pemex contracts.
“So the contract determines when shipments are sent and when they are not sent,” Sheinbaum said.
Trump and Sheinbaum spoke by phone Thursday morning. Sheinbaum said they did not discuss Cuba.
“We didn’t address the issue of Cuba,” Sheinbaum said, adding that Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary had discussed with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that it was “very important” for Mexico to maintain its humanitarian aid to Cuba and Mexico was willing to serve as an intermediary between the U.S. and Cuba.
`Under threat of tariff coercion’
The lack of clarity from the leader has underscored the extreme pressure Mexico and other Latin American nations are under as Trump has grown more confrontational following the Venezuelan operation.
It remains unclear what the Thursday order by Trump will mean for Cuba, which has been roiled by crisis for years and a U.S. embargo. Anxieties were already simmering on the Caribbean island as many drivers sat in long lines this week for gasoline, many unsure of what would come next.
On Cuban state television, commentator Jorge Leganoa, who usually expresses views aligned with the government, asserted “Cuba was not a threat,” but rather that the island’s authorities were fighting gangs and preventing regional drug trafficking with their zero-tolerance policy.
Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos F. de Cossio wrote on social media platform X that the U.S. is tightening its Cuban blockade after “the failure of decades of relentless economic warfare” and attempting to “force sovereign states to join the embargo.”
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Training and running frontier AI models requires capital on a scale rarely seen in the private sector. Hyperscaler capex has already tripled since 2023, and forecasts now point to more than $2.7 trillion of cumulative AI-related spending from 2025 to 2029.
What began as a largely self-funded capex cycle is quickly becoming a financing event. In the final three months of 2025 alone, Oracle, Meta, Google and Amazon issued roughly $90 billion in bonds. As AI investment increasingly turns to debt markets, we expect this shift to meaningfully reorder the top ranks of the investment grade credit universe.
As the chart below illustrates, financing just 20% of AI capex through IG markets would materially reshape index composition — propelling Amazon into the top 3 issuers and pushing Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and Google into the top 10, with Google jumping from 67th to 8th.
This is one of the core themes explored in our 2026 Credit Outlook. In addition, we also highlight several forces reshaping credit markets:
Credit has shifted back into a buyer’s market. Economic growth in the US is expected to support corporate and consumer fundamentals in 2026. But the technical backdrop has flipped. After years of scarcity, credit markets are entering a higher supply regime driven by AI-related hyperscaler issuance and a reacceleration in M&A.AI issuance is increasing concentration and correlation risk. AI-related exposure is becoming pervasive across portfolios, with apparent diversification across issuers and sectors increasingly masking a single macro bet on AI — raising correlation risk and increasing the value of diversification into areas structurally insulated from the AI arms race, including European private credit and sports financing.M&A is returning at scale, reinforcing supply dynamics. Lower financing costs, workable valuations, abundant private equity dry powder, and a more supportive policy backdrop are driving a resurgence in deal activity, with large transactions tapping multiple segments of the credit markets simultaneously.The cycle is defined by dispersion, not distress. Economic growth is narrowing rather than weakening, concentrating among higher-income consumers and large, AI-exposed corporates. This K-shaped environment is driving widening dispersion across credit markets, making selectivity paramount as dispersion — not defaults — creates opportunity.$BTC #AI

Trump set to nominate Warsh today to lead the Fed, markets struggle to digest the news
Big announcement – US President Donald Trump said he will lift the veil on his nominee to lead the Fed today. Reports from multiple sources suggest it will be Kevin Warsh, who served as Fed Governor and also as an economic advisor to the president. In the past, Warsh advocated higher interest rates to combat inflation and criticized the bank's massive balance-sheet expansion through its Quantitative Easing (QE) program. Stocks and Gold are down while the US Dollar is up in the initial reaction.

Insider, but of what kind? – While Warsh has the credentials, including a stint at the Fed, there is one consistent line in his public appearances: aligning himself with Trump. The current market reaction reflects his hawkish past, but may prove wrong given the president’s demands for loyalty and aggressive interest rate cuts. If Warsh follows Trump’s orders, funds could flow to Stocks and Gold – and also away from the US, weakening the Greenback. That could happen even if US Treasury yields rise.

Wild US session – Today is also the last day of the week and the month, which means volatility jumping in near 16:00 GMT, the London fix. Around that time or shortly afterwards, the US president will make the formal announcement alongside Warsh. If Trump reiterates his desire for quick interest rate cuts and Warsh refrains from emphasizing the central bank's independence, investors may focus on the potential for rapid cuts – and current market trends may reverse.
To add fuel to the fire, it is worth keeping an eye open on US-Iran tensions, which are mounting as more American military assets approach the Persian Gulf.
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