EdgeCaller

As of February 3, 2026 (around 6:17 PM PKT in Karachi), Bitcoin (BTC) is in a corrective phase following its late-2025 all-time high near $126,000. The flagship cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility this month, dipping to fresh 2026 lows below $75,000 over the weekend before staging a modest recovery. Current trading levels hover around $78,000–$79,000, with intraday fluctuations showing a bounce from recent lows (~$74,500–$75,000) and 24h changes in the +0.5% to +1% range on many exchanges.
This pullback has erased roughly 38% from the October 2025 peak, triggering over $2.5 billion in liquidations and pushing sentiment into bearish territory. Factors contributing to the weakness include macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., soft tech earnings, precious metals unwind), institutional outflows from ETFs, forced liquidations, and uncertainty around potential Fed policy shifts (such as the Kevin Warsh nomination). Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, pressuring altcoins further amid broader risk-off moves.
Key Market Snapshot (Early February 2026)
Bitcoin (BTC) Price: ~$78,200–$78,900 (recovering from weekend lows; up modestly today after testing ~$74,500–$75,000)
Recent Drawdown: -38% from ATH; nearing 40% levels that historically often extend to 50%+ corrections
Support Zones: Critical floors around $75,000–$77,000 (recently tested), with deeper potential at $65,000–$70,000 (long-term holder support, 200-week MA approximations) or even $60,000–$68,000 in bearish scenarios
Resistance to Watch: $80,000 (psychological reclaim needed for conviction), followed by $90,000–$97,000 (e.g., 200 EMA levels for bullish resumption)
Broader Context: Total crypto market cap stabilizing around $2.6T–$2.7T; Fear & Greed in extreme fear zones earlier, now easing slightly with the bounce
This chart captures Bitcoin's recent price action, highlighting the sharp correction from late-2025 highs and the current rebound attempt from oversold levels.
February Outlook: Mixed Signals with Caution
Analysts remain divided on the short-term path:
Bearish Views: Some see this as the "final innings" of a bear market phase, with potential bottoms in the $60,000–$68,000 range absent major equity sell-offs. Others warn of deeper drops to $40,000–$50,000 if the rout extends (based on historical cycle drawdowns of 70%+ from peaks). AI aggregates suggest modest downside or flat performance by month-end (~$76,000–$77,000 average targets), with risks of retesting $72,000–$75,000.
Bullish Views: Historical February seasonality (average +14.3% returns) and recent resilience (quick bounce from sub-$75K) point to possible relief rallies. Reclaiming $80,000 could spark momentum toward $82,000–$90,000+ or even $100,000–$105,000 by late February if volume builds and macro stabilizes. Long-term holder accumulation signals confidence at these levels, and some forecasts see 2026 highs in the $150,000+ range later in the year.
Neutral/Technical Take: BTC is in a "no-trade" zone around current levels until it reclaims $80,000 convincingly or breaks lower supports. The drawdown nearing 40% historically often leads to further weakness, but strong buyer defense at key zones could cap downside and set up for a healthier correction within a larger cycle.
A visual of BTC's longer-term structure, showing the correction phase and potential support/resistance levels for February.
Looking Ahead for the Rest of February
Bullish Scenario: Hold above $77,000–$78,000 with increasing volume → push toward $82,500–$90,000+; could signal end of near-term pain and resumption of upside.
Bearish Risks: Failure to sustain gains → retest $75,000 or lower ($70,000–$65,000 zone); macro catalysts (e.g., Fed uncertainty) could accelerate downside.
Overall Sentiment: February remains pivotal for near-term direction. While the broader 2026 narrative leans toward eventual recovery (with some eyeing $150,000+ later), the immediate environment is volatile and sentiment-driven.
On Binance, this setup offers trading opportunities — spot accumulation on dips, futures hedging, or simply monitoring via charts and on-chain data. What's your outlook for BTC this month? Accumulating the bounce, waiting for $80K confirmation, or prepping for more downside? Share your thoughts below — great content could earn via Binance Square's Write to Earn!
Stay informed, trade responsibly. 🚀
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