Crypto Forecast Hub

📊 BITCOIN MACRO CYCLE UPDATE (2025)
On-chain + Derivatives Analysis

🚀 Current Market Phase:
🟨 Late Mid-Bull → Entering Early Euphoria Zone


🔹 Key Highlights:

💰 Exchange Reserves: 2.39M BTC ↓ 0.01%
➡️ Supply on exchanges keeps falling — bullish long-term.

📈 MVRV Ratio: 1.82 ↓ 1.3%
➡️ Market near fair-value — not overextended yet.

🐋 Exchange Whale Ratio: 0.97 ↑ 1% ⚠️
➡️ Whales dominating inflows — short-term caution (possible profit-taking).

🔥 Funding Rate: 0.0065 ↑ +86%
➡️ Long positions overheated — leverage building fast.

📊 Open Interest: $34.3B ↓ 0.4%
➡️ Mild cooling — healthy reset after leveraged run-up.

💱 Spot Taker CVD: Sell Dominant
➡️ Short-term sell pressure in spot markets.

🟢 Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 1.00 ↑ 0.9%
➡️ Slight buyer strength remains.


🧭 Market Interpretation

Bitcoin stays in a strong mid-bull structure —
✅ Exchange reserves low
✅ SOPR > 1
✅ Institutional demand stable

But…
⚠️ Whales moving BTC to exchanges
⚠️ Funding rates overheated
⚠️ Spot sellers active

This mix usually leads to a short-term correction / volatility phase before the next push higher.


📅 Cycle Heat Map (2023 → 2026):

🟫 Capitulation → 🟩 Accumulation → 🟨 Expansion → 🟧 Euphoria → 🟥 Reset

👉 We’re transitioning from Expansion (🟨) into Early Euphoria (🟧) —
expect profit-taking and leverage flushes before continuation.

💡 TL;DR:

🟢 Long-term: Bullish (supply shrinking, strong fundamentals)

🟠 Short-term: Overheated (watch funding + whale inflows)

🧠 Smart Play: Take partial profits, reduce leverage, buy dips after reset.


#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #TradingInsights #CryptoMarket

📅 Monday, Nov 3, 2025
🕔 17:00 (Athens) / 10:00 ET
💥 This one MOVES MARKETS! 💥
The ISM Manufacturing PMI drops today — a key U.S. economic indicator that often shakes risk assets like BTC, ETH, and major altcoins. Futures traders, this is your macro moment. ⚡
📊 WHAT IT MEANS:
> Above 50 ➡️ Expansion → stronger economy → rate-hike / “higher-for-longer” fears → risk-off
Below 50 ➡️ Contraction → slowdown → rate-cut hopes → risk-on 🚀
🔥 WATCH THESE NUMBERS CLOSELY:
🏭 Headline PMI – overall activity
📦 New Orders – forward demand
💰 Prices Paid – inflation pressure
👷 Employment – labor strength
⚔️ TRADER PLAYBOOK (not financial advice)
🟢 Weak PMI → “Fed pivot” hopes → liquidity ↑ → crypto rally possible
🔴 Strong PMI → inflation fears → risk assets pull back
⚡ Expect volatility around the release: spreads widen, wicks fly, and liquidation cascades hit fast.
🧠 Pro tips:
• Reduce leverage into the print
• Wait 15–30 min after release for direction confirmation
• Watch funding, OI spikes, and basis before reacting
📣 Stay tuned and keep notifications ON!
I’ll post the exact PMI numbers as soon as they drop at 17:00 Athens / 10:00 ET ⏰
#PMI #Macro #CryptoFutures #BTC #ETH #Altcoins #NewsTrading #RiskManagement