La Mariposa
I love trading and technical analysis. Financial markets as a lifestyle. Do what you love every day and don't forget to thank God for what you have.
0 Følger
194 Følgere
381 Synes godt om
25 Delt
Opslag
Alle
Tilbud
$BTC closed the week relatively well overall. We remain above the support level in the 65–68k zone. There is still a risk of further downside while the market cools off from strong oversold conditions, and the coming week should show the direction. A weekly convergence is forming, but for now it is only potential — we are observing
Crypto is already part of the global financial system.
We can see a lot of different information about what could drive its growth (and whether such a driver exists at all).
I believe the main catalyst for growth is the expansion of crypto adoption worldwide, easier onboarding, and the development of infrastructure.
I would also pay attention to projects that are already working on quantum-resistant security.
Here is the history of the Forex market — and with high probability, something similar could happen to crypto.
A Brief History of the Foreign Exchange (Forex, FX) Market
From “bank dealing by phone” to the largest financial market in the world
Unlike equities, FX does not have a traditional market capitalization.
Its size is measured primarily by daily trading volume and liquidity.
1) Early stages: before the internet and modern electronic trading
Currency exchange has existed for centuries.
Organized exchange activity appeared in Europe as early as the 16th–17th centuries (notably around Amsterdam) to facilitate international trade.
However, the modern FX market, capable of determining exchange rates in real time, emerged after major economies abandoned the gold standard in the 1970s, allowing currencies to float freely.
Before the internet era:
Trading occurred mainly between large banks in the interbank market
Deals were executed by phone or via closed systems
Access for retail traders was extremely limited
👉 In the mid-1980s, estimated daily FX turnover was roughly ~$100 billion per day.
2) The rise of the internet and retail access
The 1990s–2000s digital revolution dramatically expanded market access:
Banks and institutions adopted electronic trading networks
Online brokers and platforms opened FX to retail traders worldwide (MetaTrader, ECNs, etc.)
Clients could connect directly via the internet, sharply increasing liquidity and participation
Today, FX operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, as a decentralized global OTC market with no single physical location.
3) How the market size evolved
Because FX has no fixed capitalization, its scale is measured by average daily turnover.
Historical reference points (daily volume)
Year Average daily FX turnover
1983 ~ $100 billion/day
1998 ~ $1.5 trillion/day
2010 ~ $4–5 trillion/day
2022 ~ $7.5 trillion/day (BIS)
2025 ~ $9.5–9.6 trillion/day (BIS Triennial)
📌 Conclusion:
Daily FX turnover has grown roughly 90–100× since the 1980s.
Estimates of the market’s “total size”
Beyond daily turnover:
Some analysts estimate the aggregate global FX exposure at roughly
$2.0–2.4 quadrillion in cumulative currency assets and liabilities.
This is only an approximate conceptual measure, since FX structure does not allow a clear capitalization figure like equities.
Why the FX market became so large
🔹 Expansion of global trade and cross-border investment
🔹 Technology and internet brokers enabling retail participation and automation
🔹 Institutional hedging strategies and swaps, which make up a large share of volume
🔹 24-hour trading across time zones, sustaining constant activity
Final takeaway
Before the internet, FX was primarily an interbank market with modest volumes and minimal retail access.
With technological progress and online connectivity, it expanded to roughly
$9.5–10 trillion in average daily turnover by 2025, making it the largest financial market in the world.
Estimates of the total currency flows can reach quadrillions of dollars, far exceeding any equity market.
I believe the main catalyst for growth is the expansion of crypto adoption worldwide, easier onboarding, and the development of infrastructure.
I would also pay attention to projects that are already working on quantum-resistant security.
Here is the history of the Forex market — and with high probability, something similar could happen to crypto.
A Brief History of the Foreign Exchange (Forex, FX) Market
From “bank dealing by phone” to the largest financial market in the world
Unlike equities, FX does not have a traditional market capitalization.
Its size is measured primarily by daily trading volume and liquidity.
1) Early stages: before the internet and modern electronic trading
Currency exchange has existed for centuries.
Organized exchange activity appeared in Europe as early as the 16th–17th centuries (notably around Amsterdam) to facilitate international trade.
However, the modern FX market, capable of determining exchange rates in real time, emerged after major economies abandoned the gold standard in the 1970s, allowing currencies to float freely.
Before the internet era:
Trading occurred mainly between large banks in the interbank market
Deals were executed by phone or via closed systems
Access for retail traders was extremely limited
👉 In the mid-1980s, estimated daily FX turnover was roughly ~$100 billion per day.
2) The rise of the internet and retail access
The 1990s–2000s digital revolution dramatically expanded market access:
Banks and institutions adopted electronic trading networks
Online brokers and platforms opened FX to retail traders worldwide (MetaTrader, ECNs, etc.)
Clients could connect directly via the internet, sharply increasing liquidity and participation
Today, FX operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, as a decentralized global OTC market with no single physical location.
3) How the market size evolved
Because FX has no fixed capitalization, its scale is measured by average daily turnover.
Historical reference points (daily volume)
Year Average daily FX turnover
1983 ~ $100 billion/day
1998 ~ $1.5 trillion/day
2010 ~ $4–5 trillion/day
2022 ~ $7.5 trillion/day (BIS)
2025 ~ $9.5–9.6 trillion/day (BIS Triennial)
📌 Conclusion:
Daily FX turnover has grown roughly 90–100× since the 1980s.
Estimates of the market’s “total size”
Beyond daily turnover:
Some analysts estimate the aggregate global FX exposure at roughly
$2.0–2.4 quadrillion in cumulative currency assets and liabilities.
This is only an approximate conceptual measure, since FX structure does not allow a clear capitalization figure like equities.
Why the FX market became so large
🔹 Expansion of global trade and cross-border investment
🔹 Technology and internet brokers enabling retail participation and automation
🔹 Institutional hedging strategies and swaps, which make up a large share of volume
🔹 24-hour trading across time zones, sustaining constant activity
Final takeaway
Before the internet, FX was primarily an interbank market with modest volumes and minimal retail access.
With technological progress and online connectivity, it expanded to roughly
$9.5–10 trillion in average daily turnover by 2025, making it the largest financial market in the world.
Estimates of the total currency flows can reach quadrillions of dollars, far exceeding any equity market.
SHIB — despite the level breakdown, the strong higher-timeframe long signal is still in play. We’ve seen daily structures break technically, and this usually happens only during black swan seasons, but in a large percentage of cases such signals still work well. Technical analysis works even when it seems like it doesn’t.
UNI — a similar situation with another sweep of the lows. Important: there are level breakdowns, so we need to watch where the weekly candle closes.
ONDO — the same picture.
$BTC / XRP / SOL / ETH — higher hourly timeframes are signaling at least a potential stop. Let’s see.
UNI — a similar situation with another sweep of the lows. Important: there are level breakdowns, so we need to watch where the weekly candle closes.
ONDO — the same picture.
$BTC / XRP / SOL / ETH — higher hourly timeframes are signaling at least a potential stop. Let’s see.
$ETH /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️
— Extreme oversold conditions, support level retest, trend consolidation retest, and convergences on higher timeframes
— Entry: $1873 — market buy order
— Stop: $1690
— Target: $4300
Risk per trade: 0.5% of total deposit
Position size: 6% of total deposit
RR 1:15
— Extreme oversold conditions, support level retest, trend consolidation retest, and convergences on higher timeframes
— Entry: $1873 — market buy order
— Stop: $1690
— Target: $4300
Risk per trade: 0.5% of total deposit
Position size: 6% of total deposit
RR 1:15
$BTC — let’s look at the history. If we manage to hold the current 60–70k range, there is every chance to see 180k in the long term (I don’t know — six months, a year?). So far, we are seeing historically similar buyback patterns and, overall, nearly equal time between the decline and the recovery.
The fundamentals are still here. Bitcoin hasn’t been hacked, fear is at its peak, and everyone is sitting in dollars. We’ll see. Otherwise, a crypto winter down to around 30k is almost guaranteed.
The fundamentals are still here. Bitcoin hasn’t been hacked, fear is at its peak, and everyone is sitting in dollars. We’ll see. Otherwise, a crypto winter down to around 30k is almost guaranteed.
$BTC has been staying in a deeply oversold zone with an extreme imbalance for a long time, and the indicators are at the bottom. Where is the stop? I don’t know — in panic situations nobody ever knows. Levels get broken, people go crazy.
In seasons and stages like this (yes, it’s a stage, not forever), trying to catch the bottom only makes sense with a tight stop.
But the best strategy that always works is buy and hold, if we are talking about top crypto assets and no leverage. Fundamentals remain very strong. A sell-off does not make Bitcoin stop being Bitcoin. The panic selling is driven by global reasons, not by problems with Bitcoin or other top assets.
Question: who is buying the panic? Answer: definitely not retail. The good news is that such a drop doesn’t create many resistance levels, so the nearest one is around 85k.
I’m waiting for divergences to form (altcoins already have them) to add more to long positions. When a season like this begins, the best thing a trader can do is stand by their rules: oversold conditions, support retests, divergences — buy.
In seasons and stages like this (yes, it’s a stage, not forever), trying to catch the bottom only makes sense with a tight stop.
But the best strategy that always works is buy and hold, if we are talking about top crypto assets and no leverage. Fundamentals remain very strong. A sell-off does not make Bitcoin stop being Bitcoin. The panic selling is driven by global reasons, not by problems with Bitcoin or other top assets.
Question: who is buying the panic? Answer: definitely not retail. The good news is that such a drop doesn’t create many resistance levels, so the nearest one is around 85k.
I’m waiting for divergences to form (altcoins already have them) to add more to long positions. When a season like this begins, the best thing a trader can do is stand by their rules: oversold conditions, support retests, divergences — buy.
$ONDO /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea
— Extreme oversold conditions, technical long signals across almost all higher timeframes (divergences), strong upside potential in case of a rebound, and a well-defined stop level.
— Entry: $0.281 — market buy order
— Stop: $0.26
— Target: $0.41
Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit
Position size: 15% of total deposit
RR: 1:6.3
— Extreme oversold conditions, technical long signals across almost all higher timeframes (divergences), strong upside potential in case of a rebound, and a well-defined stop level.
— Entry: $0.281 — market buy order
— Stop: $0.26
— Target: $0.41
Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit
Position size: 15% of total deposit
RR: 1:6.3
$BTC is currently testing a key support level.
In case of a breakdown, we could realistically see the $55k zone. However, the market is showing extreme oversold conditions across multiple indicators and an emerging bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe. On some altcoins, confirmed higher-timeframe divergences are already in place, which could signal at least a pause in the downside momentum.
On the hourly timeframe, a falling wedge is forming (breakout level around $78k, target $86–88k). That said, the sell-off has been so steep that this structure could also simply reflect extreme buyer weakness.
The next major support lies in the $68–70k zone. I remain biased toward the long side — even a modest return of demand could move price sharply.
In case of a breakdown, we could realistically see the $55k zone. However, the market is showing extreme oversold conditions across multiple indicators and an emerging bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe. On some altcoins, confirmed higher-timeframe divergences are already in place, which could signal at least a pause in the downside momentum.
On the hourly timeframe, a falling wedge is forming (breakout level around $78k, target $86–88k). That said, the sell-off has been so steep that this structure could also simply reflect extreme buyer weakness.
The next major support lies in the $68–70k zone. I remain biased toward the long side — even a modest return of demand could move price sharply.
$CAKE /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️
— Extreme oversold conditions, a retest of a strong support zone, and forming divergences on higher timeframes.
— Entry: $1.5785 — market buy order
— Stop: $1.454
— Target: $2.10
Risk per trade: 0.2% of total deposit
Position size: 3% of total deposit
RR: 1:4
— Extreme oversold conditions, a retest of a strong support zone, and forming divergences on higher timeframes.
— Entry: $1.5785 — market buy order
— Stop: $1.454
— Target: $2.10
Risk per trade: 0.2% of total deposit
Position size: 3% of total deposit
RR: 1:4
$SOL /USDT Long ⬆️ — Trade Idea ❇️❇️❇️
— Extreme oversold conditions, test of a strong support zone, forming convergences on higher timeframes
— Entry: $103 — market buy order
— Stop: $92
— Target: $240
Risk per trade: 0.2% of the total deposit
Position size: 2% of the total deposit
RR: 1:22
— Extreme oversold conditions, test of a strong support zone, forming convergences on higher timeframes
— Entry: $103 — market buy order
— Stop: $92
— Target: $240
Risk per trade: 0.2% of the total deposit
Position size: 2% of the total deposit
RR: 1:22
$BTC /USDT Long ⬆️
— Extreme oversold conditions, almost no long positions, strong market imbalance, bullish divergences on the hourly and daily timeframes.
— Entry: $78,700 — market buy order
— Stop: $76,800
— Target: $88,000
Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit
Position size: 45% of total deposit, spot (or on a futures account with 1x leverage selected in settings)
RR: 1:5.25
— Extreme oversold conditions, almost no long positions, strong market imbalance, bullish divergences on the hourly and daily timeframes.
— Entry: $78,700 — market buy order
— Stop: $76,800
— Target: $88,000
Risk per trade: 1% of total deposit
Position size: 45% of total deposit, spot (or on a futures account with 1x leverage selected in settings)
RR: 1:5.25
$BTC /USDT Long Set-up
— Support retest, test of the lower consolidation zone, potential divergence on the hourly timeframes, oversold conditions, and an imbalance in open positions.
— Entry: $82958— market buy order
— Stop: $81000
— Target: $97350
Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 40% of total equity
RR: 1:6.6
— Support retest, test of the lower consolidation zone, potential divergence on the hourly timeframes, oversold conditions, and an imbalance in open positions.
— Entry: $82958— market buy order
— Stop: $81000
— Target: $97350
Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 40% of total equity
RR: 1:6.6
Fear and panic persist, negative sentiment on social media is at extreme levels, and $BTC ETF outflows are massive — $1.9 billion withdrawn over the past week. Gold and other metals have entered a correction phase, and crypto is following them.
I still believe these are good conditions for a long-term long position. This is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, but the market imbalance has become too obvious — markets tend to move toward equilibrium.
I am not opening new positions for now. It is necessary to wait for a slowdown and stabilization of panic selling. I am also not planning to open shorts — shorting into such a disbalance is extremely dangerous.
On a higher timeframe, the market is still trading within a range and remains heavily oversold.
I still believe these are good conditions for a long-term long position. This is not a guarantee of an immediate bottom, but the market imbalance has become too obvious — markets tend to move toward equilibrium.
I am not opening new positions for now. It is necessary to wait for a slowdown and stabilization of panic selling. I am also not planning to open shorts — shorting into such a disbalance is extremely dangerous.
On a higher timeframe, the market is still trading within a range and remains heavily oversold.
Investment Idea SHIB
Higher-timeframe convergences, retest of the 0.0068–0.0075 support zone, strong oversold conditions based on indicators.
Market entry: Buy at $0.0073
Target 1: $0.011 — +50%
Target 2: $0.015 — +100%
Position size: 3-5% of the deposit
Fundamental drivers for price growth and adoption
🔹 Shibarium privacy (FHE) — could become a major technological milestone.
🔹 Shib Alpha Layer — improves usability and network throughput.
🔹 AI initiatives — provide a long-term narrative if they materialize into real products.
🔹 Gaming partnerships — expand SHIB use cases beyond pure speculation.
🔹 Token burns — the most direct supply-side driver.
🔹 A broad crypto bull run — increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high-beta assets like $SHIB .
Higher-timeframe convergences, retest of the 0.0068–0.0075 support zone, strong oversold conditions based on indicators.
Market entry: Buy at $0.0073
Target 1: $0.011 — +50%
Target 2: $0.015 — +100%
Position size: 3-5% of the deposit
Fundamental drivers for price growth and adoption
🔹 Shibarium privacy (FHE) — could become a major technological milestone.
🔹 Shib Alpha Layer — improves usability and network throughput.
🔹 AI initiatives — provide a long-term narrative if they materialize into real products.
🔹 Gaming partnerships — expand SHIB use cases beyond pure speculation.
🔹 Token burns — the most direct supply-side driver.
🔹 A broad crypto bull run — increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high-beta assets like $SHIB .
We are seeing a very strong imbalance in potential liquidations — long positions are almost absent. I continue to hold a long position and plan to add to spot.
I need to wait for proper long signals, which are not fully formed yet — specifically, higher-timeframe convergences.
I assume that what remains in the market right now is mainly short pressure: selling and ETF outflows have been absorbed. Fundamentals are getting stronger and stronger, top projects are still intact, and when demand returns — which, for me, is a matter of time — there will be no supply, only short sellers. And the closing of their positions means buying.
$BTC $XRP
I need to wait for proper long signals, which are not fully formed yet — specifically, higher-timeframe convergences.
I assume that what remains in the market right now is mainly short pressure: selling and ETF outflows have been absorbed. Fundamentals are getting stronger and stronger, top projects are still intact, and when demand returns — which, for me, is a matter of time — there will be no supply, only short sellers. And the closing of their positions means buying.
$BTC $XRP
$SHIB/USDT Long Set-up
— Support retest, triple confluence on the higher timeframe, strong oversold conditions
— Entry: $0.00758 — market buy order
— Stop: $0.0073
— Target: $0.00904
Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 25% of total equity
RR: 1:5.2
— Support retest, triple confluence on the higher timeframe, strong oversold conditions
— Entry: $0.00758 — market buy order
— Stop: $0.0073
— Target: $0.00904
Risk per trade: 1% of total equity
Position size: 25% of total equity
RR: 1:5.2
$CAKE /USDT Long Set-up
— Entry: $1.934 (Market buy)
— Stop: $1.874
— Target: $2.155
Risk per trade: 1% of total account
Position size: 30% of total account
RR: 1 : 3.45
— Entry: $1.934 (Market buy)
— Stop: $1.874
— Target: $2.155
Risk per trade: 1% of total account
Position size: 30% of total account
RR: 1 : 3.45
We’re seeing a serious imbalance in the market.
Price has broken a bearish formation that was obvious to everyone, but has stalled for now. This may simply be because there are no sellers left — and no remaining longs to liquidate. A full cleanup has already taken place. Hourly timeframes are showing convergences, which increases the probability that this move could turn into a short trap. In that scenario, price may rotate back into the range with a potential retest of the $100K level.
$BTC At the moment, the buyer looks weak — but I don’t think this is weakness. It’s absence. If everyone is positioned short, then there are no sellers left either. Markets always seek balance.
I’m positioned on the long side.
Price has broken a bearish formation that was obvious to everyone, but has stalled for now. This may simply be because there are no sellers left — and no remaining longs to liquidate. A full cleanup has already taken place. Hourly timeframes are showing convergences, which increases the probability that this move could turn into a short trap. In that scenario, price may rotate back into the range with a potential retest of the $100K level.
$BTC At the moment, the buyer looks weak — but I don’t think this is weakness. It’s absence. If everyone is positioned short, then there are no sellers left either. Markets always seek balance.
I’m positioned on the long side.
$BTC flag formation, which most often resolves with a continuation of the local trend — in our case, a test of the 78k area. As long as we stay above the 86–87k zone, there is still a chance for a move higher. I’m still in longs with a small position size, as the buyer currently looks weak. We’ll see.
NYSE + Crypto: what’s really happening
There’s a lot of noise around the headline:
“NYSE launches 24/7 stock trading via crypto and blockchain”
Let’s break it down by facts 👇
1️⃣ This is NOT futures and NOT crypto trading
We’re talking about tokenized securities —
📌 stocks and ETFs issued as tokens, backed by real shares
📌 a spot-equivalent of ownership, not a derivative
📌 dividends and shareholder rights are preserved
In other words:
❌ not a price bet
✅ a digital form of ownership
2️⃣ Who is behind it
The project is being developed by the New York Stock Exchange
through its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
This will be a separate digital platform, not the traditional NYSE market.
3️⃣ Why blockchain and crypto are involved
The platform is expected to include:
— on-chain settlement
— stablecoin-based payments
— 24/7 trading
— fractional shares
👉 This means TradFi is moving onto crypto rails, even without directly buying $BTC
4️⃣ What this means for Crypto (the key part)
🔥 Legitimization of on-chain markets
🔥 Infrastructure-driven demand for stablecoins
🔥 Liquidity flowing through on-chain systems
🔥 Blurring the line between TradFi and DeFi
Crypto stops being “a separate market”
and becomes a financial layer.
5️⃣ Which blockchain will be used?
Nothing has been officially announced yet.
Most likely:
— a permissioned / hybrid blockchain
— EVM compatibility
— integration with public infrastructure
Ethereum matters here not as a DeFi casino,
but as a technology standard.
6️⃣ Timeline (realistic view)
⏳ 2026 — regulatory work and pilot programs
⏳ 2027 — limited institutional launch
This is not a fast release —
it’s a rebuild of market infrastructure.
Bottom line:
❌ not hype and not a rumor
❌ not “crypto replacing stocks”
✅ TradFi officially moving on-chain
Slow process — but irreversible.
There’s a lot of noise around the headline:
“NYSE launches 24/7 stock trading via crypto and blockchain”
Let’s break it down by facts 👇
1️⃣ This is NOT futures and NOT crypto trading
We’re talking about tokenized securities —
📌 stocks and ETFs issued as tokens, backed by real shares
📌 a spot-equivalent of ownership, not a derivative
📌 dividends and shareholder rights are preserved
In other words:
❌ not a price bet
✅ a digital form of ownership
2️⃣ Who is behind it
The project is being developed by the New York Stock Exchange
through its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
This will be a separate digital platform, not the traditional NYSE market.
3️⃣ Why blockchain and crypto are involved
The platform is expected to include:
— on-chain settlement
— stablecoin-based payments
— 24/7 trading
— fractional shares
👉 This means TradFi is moving onto crypto rails, even without directly buying $BTC
4️⃣ What this means for Crypto (the key part)
🔥 Legitimization of on-chain markets
🔥 Infrastructure-driven demand for stablecoins
🔥 Liquidity flowing through on-chain systems
🔥 Blurring the line between TradFi and DeFi
Crypto stops being “a separate market”
and becomes a financial layer.
5️⃣ Which blockchain will be used?
Nothing has been officially announced yet.
Most likely:
— a permissioned / hybrid blockchain
— EVM compatibility
— integration with public infrastructure
Ethereum matters here not as a DeFi casino,
but as a technology standard.
6️⃣ Timeline (realistic view)
⏳ 2026 — regulatory work and pilot programs
⏳ 2027 — limited institutional launch
This is not a fast release —
it’s a rebuild of market infrastructure.
Bottom line:
❌ not hype and not a rumor
❌ not “crypto replacing stocks”
✅ TradFi officially moving on-chain
Slow process — but irreversible.
Log ind for at udforske mere indhold