usjobsdata

The U.S. labor market posted a stronger-than-expected gain of 119,000 jobs in September, even as the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.4%, according to long-delayed government data released Thursday.The report — originally scheduled for early October — was pushed back six weeks due to the federal government shutdown, leaving markets without timely labor figures throughout a volatile period.What to KnowThe U.S. added 119,000 jobs, beating economist expectations of 50,000.The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the 4.3% forecast.The shutdown-delayed jobs report arrives as markets weigh fading Fed rate-cut odds.Bitcoin held modest gains around $91,900 following strong Nvidia earnings.Next up-to-date labor data will not be released until mid-December.Delayed Report Shows Labor Market Firmer Than ExpectedThe Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000 in September. Economists had projected 50,000, following a revised 4,000-job decline in August (originally reported as a 22,000 gain).However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, suggesting a softening in labor-market conditions despite stronger hiring.The late release complicates the near-term economic outlook, as policymakers, analysts and traders lack fresh data heading into the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting.Market Reaction: Bitcoin Holds Gains, Nasdaq Futures JumpBitcoin continued to hold its modest overnight lift, trading near $91,900 after Nvidia’s strong earnings and upbeat outlook calmed jittery markets late Wednesday.U.S. equity futures extended those gains:Nasdaq futures +1.9%S&P 500 and Dow futures higher10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.11%U.S. dollar index slightly strongerThe jobs report did not materially shift sentiment, as markets had already priced out a December rate cut.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Unlikely to ChangeTraders had largely eliminated the possibility of a December interest rate cut prior to the data release, citing:the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent speechesuncertainty caused by missing labor-market dataconcerns about inflation persistenceThursday’s numbers — strong on payrolls but weaker on unemployment — are unlikely to alter those expectations.With no updated employment report arriving until mid-December, the Fed will go into its final 2025 meeting with only partial visibility into labor conditions.OutlookThe September report offers a backward-looking snapshot of a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of cooling at the margins. Markets now await the next batch of timely data, though it may arrive after key policy decisions are already made.For now:hiring is strongerunemployment is risingand the Fed’s December calculus remains unchangedCrypto and equities continue to take signals primarily from earnings strength, tech momentum and shifting rate expectations rather than delayed economic data.

Markets are closely watching the Supreme Court today as prediction markets suggest a strong chance that Trump era tariffs could be ruled illegal. According to current market odds, there is a seventy one percent probability that the court will strike down the tariffs, a development that could have wide reaching economic implications.
If this outcome materializes, it would mark a major shift in US trade policy. Trump’s tariffs have played a central role in reshaping global supply chains, increasing costs for importers, and influencing inflation over the past several years. A ruling against them could ease pressure on businesses that rely on imported goods and potentially lower costs for consumers.
Financial markets are particularly sensitive to this decision. A removal of tariffs could boost equities tied to manufacturing, retail, and global trade, while strengthening investor confidence. At the same time, sudden policy reversals often bring volatility, especially if traders have not fully priced in the impact.
Regardless of the final ruling, today’s decision highlights how legal and political developments can move markets just as powerfully as economic data. Investors are preparing for rapid reactions, knowing that a single court ruling could ripple through stocks, currencies, and global trade expectations.

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⏰ 10:00 AM ET — Eyes on the U.S. Supreme Court
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule today on Trump-era tariffs, and this is not a routine legal update.
Markets are on edge — volatility is expected.
This ruling could instantly reshape U.S. trade power and send shockwaves across global assets.
📌 Why this decision is a BIG deal • Defines how much authority a U.S. president has to impose tariffs
• Could reinforce, restrict, or dismantle key trade powers
• Sets a long-term precedent for economic pressure & trade wars
This isn’t just policy — it’s power.
📊 What markets are watching closely • Fast reactions in stocks & futures
• Sudden moves in USD, commodities & bonds
• Possible spike in VIX (fear index)
Expect speed. Expect volatility.
🌍 Sectors most exposed ⚠️ Industrials & exporters
⚠️ Autos & manufacturing
⚠️ Tech supply chains
⚠️ Commodities & metals
Any surprise ruling could reprice these instantly.
📉 Possible outcomes ✅ Tariffs upheld → Trade tensions intensify
❌ Tariffs limited → Governments seek loopholes
🔁 No clear ruling → Markets stay nervous longer
Each path carries risk.
🧠 The bigger picture This ruling sends a message — not just to markets, but to allies and rivals — about how aggressive U.S. trade policy can be going forward.
🎯 Bottom line When the Supreme Court speaks, markets react.
Today’s decision could set the tone for weeks of volatility ahead.
Stay sharp. Stay prepared. 📉📈
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