Web3 Daily Research

Date: January 21, 2026
Topic: Digital Asset Market Strategy & Outlook
Author: Kong Ming Ahn - Senior Market Strategist at Web3 Daily Research
The digital asset market currently stands at a historical inflection point. Following the volatility and cleansing phases of the 2022-2024 cycle, we are now witnessing a "perfect storm" - a convergence of macroeconomic shifts, micro market dynamics, and unprecedented geopolitical calculations. The valuation of Bitcoin at $100,000 is no longer the speculative fantasy of early adopters, rather, it is becoming a mathematical inevitability based on hard data.
Below is a comprehensive analysis of the six structural pillars supporting this high-conviction thesis.
1. The Erosion of Fiat Hegemony: The Bell Tolls
To understand the trajectory of Bitcoin, one must first analyze the denominator: Fiat currency. The global financial system is witnessing a severe erosion of confidence in sovereign currencies. Persistent inflation in major economies, coupled with rapid devaluation in emerging markets, has forced capital to seek unconfiscatable shelter.
Bitcoin, with its immutable capped supply of 21 million units, is fulfilling its mandate as "Digital Gold" with increasing efficiency. As the purchasing power of the USD, EUR, and JPY declines, the nominal value of BTC denominated in these currencies must mathematically rise. We are not merely seeing Bitcoin appreciate, we are witnessing the repricing of fiat currencies against the hardest asset in existence.
However, the natural decay of fiat currency is only the backdrop. The active monetary policies of global superpowers act as the primary catalyst.
2. The $8 Billion "Signal" and the Return of Quantitative Easing (QE)
One of the most potent bullish drivers is the resurgence of liquidity injection by the United States.
Deconstructing the $8 Billion Injection:
Recently, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury executed Open Market Operations, effectively injecting a net $8 billion into the banking system over a short window.
The Significance: While $8 billion may seem negligible relative to total market capitalization, its signaling value is immense. It indicates that the policy of Quantitative Tightening has hit the structural limit of the economy. The Fed was forced to provide liquidity to prevent a systemic seize up in the commercial banking sector.The Impact: Historically, the moment the Fed pivots from tightening to easing, risk assets specifically Bitcoin act as the primary sponge for this excess liquidity.
Forecasting the QE Pivot:
Given the record levels of U.S. national debt and the crushing weight of interest payments, it is highly probable that the U.S. will enter a new, aggressive cycle of Quantitative Easing in 2026.
The Scenario: To service debt and stimulate a slowing economy, expanding the M2 money supply is the path of least political resistance.The Outlook: Once the "money printer" resumes full capacity, this liquidity tide will lift BTC past all previous resistance levels, establishing $100,000 not as a ceiling, but as a new support floor.
While Western liquidity provides the fuel, a silent but coordinated infrastructure build-out in the East is constructing the engine.
3. Sovereign Strategy: Domestic Exchanges and the "Invisible Consensus"
A new geopolitical trend is emerging: The nationalization or centralized control of crypto gateways.
Case Study: Vietnam’s Regulatory Pivot
Vietnam consistently ranked among the top nations for crypto adoption has strategically licensed five domestic exchanges. This is not merely for taxation, it is a strategic maneuver to build national financial infrastructure.
Deep Dive: The "Dam Burst" Effect on Local Liquidity - VND
The licensing of these five entities represents a massive unlocking of capital:
The Bank Backed Exchange: Likely integrated directly into banking apps, allowing friction-free BTC purchases for the general public.The Brokerage Arm: Legitimizng crypto as an asset class alongside equities for sophisticated investors.The Fintech Super App: Bringing crypto to the masses via ubiquitous wallets (e.g., Onus equivalents), driving volume through sheer user count.The Localized Global Giant: A joint venture (e.g., with Binance) ensuring deep liquidity and compliance.The Sovereign Pilot: A state monitored sandbox for CBDC and BTC reserves.
Implication: This legitimizes the "mattress money" (cash savings) held by the population and allows corporate treasuries to legally hedge against inflation using BTC. The liquidity flow from VND to BTC will be instant and massive.
The "Invisible Consensus" Theory:
There is a compelling argument that nations are engaging in an implicit consensus to suppress prices temporarily or utilize market FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) to facilitate Strategic Accumulation.
Rationale: Before opening the floodgates of domestic exchanges, sovereign entities and state backed institutions must secure their Bitcoin Reserves.Mechanism: If prices rise too quickly, these national exchanges would face a liquidity crisis. Thus, we see a "coiled spring" effect: prices are compressed to allow smart money to accumulate. Once reserves are sufficient, the suppression ends, and price discovery explodes upward.
This state level adoption aligns perfectly with the insights of the industry's most influential figures.
4. The CZ Prophecy and the Super Cycle Thesis
Changpeng Zhao, despite past regulatory hurdles, remains a visionary whose market reads are rarely incorrect.
The Argument: CZ is rarely wrong on macro trends.
CZ correctly predicted the explosion of DeFi, NFTs, and the entry of Wall Street giants like BlackRock. Recently, he has hinted at an approaching "Super Cycle."
Unlike the traditional 4 years cycle based on the Halving, a Super Cycle is driven by sovereign level adoption and the structural decay of TradFi.When a figure with access to the world's most comprehensive user data sets signals optimism, it is likely based on real time on chain capital flows, not mere sentiment.
Executive optimism is valuable, but the allocation of human capital provides the most tangible proof of growth.
5. Human Capital: The Leading Indicator of Sector Expansion
We must look at the labor market to see the true health of the industry.
2022-2023 (The Bear Market): Headlines were dominated by layoffs at Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance. This marked the market bottom.Current State: We are witnessing an aggressive hiring spree. Binance, Web3 protocols, Layer-2 scaling solutions, and even traditional banks are competing for blockchain talent.
Analysis: Hiring is expensive and time consuming. Corporations only undertake this when they forecast significant revenue growth in the immediate future (6-12 months). This "infrastructure build out" is the strongest fundamental evidence that the industry is preparing for Mass Adoption.
Finally, when fundamental factors align with technical indicators, the probability of a breakout increases exponentially.
6. Technical Confluence: The "Golden" Trendline (Since Nov 17, 2025)
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's Price Action is confirming the fundamental thesis.
Since November 17, 2025, Bitcoin has respected a highly robust ascending trendline.
Sustainable Slope: The angle of ascent is neither parabolic (unsustainable) nor flat. It indicates healthy, organic demand that is systematically absorbing sell-side pressure.Higher Lows: The "Bulls" are successfully defending key support levels. Every test of this trend line is met with a surge in volume, confirming strong buyer interest.Projection: If this structure holds through Q1 2026, the technical confluence will propel BTC through its previous ATH, targeting the $100,000 - $120,000 zone in the near term.
Conclusion: The Great Wealth Transfer
Synthesizing these factors from macro liquidity (QE) to micro growth (hiring) and geopolitical maneuvering (sovereign exchanges) it is evident that Bitcoin is at the foothills of a parabolic move.
The $100,000 mark is more than a psychological barrier, it represents the validation of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset. Nations are accumulating, corporations are staffing up, and central banks are warming up the printing presses. The question for investors is no longer if Bitcoin will reach this valuation, but rather, "How much Bitcoin do you have?" when the inevitable occurs.
#BTC100kNext?

I’ve been analyzing this for the last 24 hours and this is VERY BAD.
World silver production: ~800M ounces
BofA & Citi shorts: 4.4 BILLION
I’ve spent two decades in macro, and I thought I had seen it all.
I WAS WRONG.
If silver keeps going up, the biggest banks in america will collapse.
Here’s what I uncovered:
Yesterday, silver hit $92. Then it dropped over 6% in a few minutes, pumped back up to around $91, and now it’s crashing again.
I’ve spent 20 years in these markets. Most people see a normal correction, but I see a TRAP.
At $90/oz, their combined short position is now a ~$390 BILLION liability.
That’s larger than the market cap of most global banks.
This is literally survival. The banks are doing everything they can to stay afloat.
WHY THE DIP TO $86 OVERNIGHT?
They had to do it. If silver had broken $100 yesterday, margin calls would have liquidated those banks.
They unloaded paper contracts during thin overnight liquidity to FORCE THE PRICE DOWN.
But look closer at the physical market:
While the paper price dropped $6, lease rates just went vertical.
The cost to borrow physical silver is skyrocketing.
We are in BACKWARDATION.
Spot Price > Futures Price.
It means people don’t want paper promise in 6 months, they want the metal NOW.
THE MATH IS TERMINAL:
We know the shorts are 4.4B ounces.
We know annual mining is ~800M ounces.
But at $90+, the recycling supply dries up because people hoard.
And industrial demand (AI chips, solar, EVs) is inelastic, they must buy at any price to keep factories running.
BofA and Citi aren't just short the metal, they’re short the industrial revolution.
THE "FORCE MAJEURE" IS NEXT
I warned you 2 weeks ago about "cash settlement."
It’s already starting in the wholesale markets.
Dealers are quoting unavailable or 6-week delays for volume delivery.
When the price snaps back above $92, and it will, it won't stop at $100.
It will gap to $150 overnight when the first major short declares force majeure.
THE TWO MARKETS ARE DETACHING:
1. Screen Price ($88): A fiction maintained by algorithms.
2. Street Price: Unobtainable.
They’re shaking the tree one last time to get your physical…
BUT DO NOT SELL.
We are witnessing the death of the paper derivative market in real-time.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the commodities supercycle.
How do I know all of this?
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

China just injected trillions into its economy.
The largest liquidity injection since COVID.
Gold could surge to $10,000 and silver to $150.
This move could ignite the largest commodity squeeze of our lifetime.
Here’s why:
Look at the chart on the left (M2 Money Supply).
China is currently executing the largest monetary expansion in its history outside of the COVID crisis.
China’s M2 money supply has gone vertical, now sitting north of $48 TRILLION (USD equivalent).
For perspective, that’s more than DOUBLE the US M2 money supply.
Historically, when China injects this much liquidity, it doesn’t stay trapped in domestic equities.
It leaks into the real economy, specifically into hard assets and commodities.
They’re printing fake paper money to secure REAL resources, like gold and silver.
Now, look at the chart on the right. This is where it gets dangerous.

While the world's largest consumer of commodities (China) is printing trillions to buy hard assets…
some of the world's largest financial institutions (BofA, Citi) are reportedly sitting on MASSIVE net short positions in silver.
The estimates show a combined short position of 4.4 Billion ounces.
Global annual mine supply is only ~800 Million ounces.
These banks are effectively short 550% of the entire planet's annual production.
This is a classic macro collision course.
On one side, you have a desperate need to debase currency (China printing yuan) which naturally bids up gold and silver prices.
On the other side, you have western institutions effectively betting against a price rise with positions that physically cannot be covered.
You cannot buy 4.4 billion ounces of silver to cover your short… IT DOESN’T EVEN EXIST.
We are looking at a potential "Commodity Supercycle 2.0."
If silver prices tick up significantly, driven by Chinese industrial demand (solar/EVs) and monetary debasement, these banks will face a margin call from HELL.
A short squeeze in a market this tight doesn't just mean higher prices, it means a complete repricing of the metal.
The fiat money supply is infinite but the silver in the ground IS NOT.
In a world where central banks are racing to debase their currencies, the only winning move is owning the assets they can't print.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
#Silver #GOLD #china