Aleta Marolda na2H

🚨 BITCOIN MAX SUPPLY IS NO LONGER 21 MILLION NOW.

And this is what causing market's crash.

If you still think Bitcoin price is moving only because of spot buying and selling, you are missing the bigger picture. Bitcoin no longer trades purely as a supply demand asset.

That structure changed the moment large derivatives markets took control of price discovery.

And that shift is a big reason why price behavior feels disconnected from on chain fundamentals today.

Originally, Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two core ideas:

• Fixed supply of 21 million coins
• No ability to duplicate that supply

This made Bitcoin structurally scarce.

Price discovery was driven mostly by real buyers and sellers in the spot market.

But over time, a second layer formed on top of Bitcoin, a financial layer.

This layer includes:

• Cash settled futures
• Perp swaps and options
• Prime broker lending
• WBTC products
• Total return swaps

None of these create new BTC on chain. But they do create synthetic exposure to BTC price.

And that synthetic exposure plays a major role in how price is set. This is where the structure changes.

Once derivatives volume becomes larger than spot volume, price stops reacting mainly to real coin movement.

It starts reacting to positioning, leverage, and liquidation flows.

In simple terms:

Price moves based on how traders are positioned, not just on how many coins are being bought or sold physically.

There is also another layer to this, synthetic supply.

One real BTC can now be referenced or used across multiple financial products at the same time.

For example, the same coin can simultaneously support:

• An ETF share
• A futures position
• A perpetual swap hedge
• Options exposure
• A broker loan structure
• A structured product

This does not increase on chain supply. But it increases tradable exposure linked to that coin.

And that affects price discovery.

When synthetic exposure becomes large relative to real supply, scarcity weakens in market pricing terms.

This is often referred to as synthetic float expansion.

At that stage:

• Rallies get shorted through derivatives
• Leverage builds quickly
• Liquidations drive sharp moves
• Price becomes more volatile

This is not unique to Bitcoin. The same structural shift happened in: Gold, Silver, Oil, Equity indices.

Once derivatives markets became dominant, price discovery shifted away from physical supply alone.

This also explains why Bitcoin sometimes falls even when there's not much spot selling.

Because price pressure can come from:

• Leveraged long liquidations
• Futures short positioning
• Options hedging flows
• ETF arbitrage trades

Not just spot selling.

So the current Bitcoin decline cannot be understood only through retail sentiment or spot flows.

A large part of the move is happening in the derivatives layer, where leverage and positioning drive short term price action.

This does not mean Bitcoin’s supply cap changed on chain.

The 21 million limit still exists. But in financial markets, paper Bitcoin is now dominating and this is what's causing the crash.
#btc #usdt #news #trade
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$BNB

I just left a private meeting with three UHNW individuals.
The situation is significantly worse than I thought.
They’re aggressively liquidating public equity positions to cover margin calls and holes in their private portfolios.
They believe the cycle is officially over.
We discussed the current state of valuations.
It’s all fake wealth. Pure paper gains.
These valuations only exist to provide exit liquidity for the top 1%.
Here’s how it works:
– Start a company.
– Issue 1B shares.
– Raise a seed round of $10m at $1/share.
You just created $1B in implied market cap out of thin air.
You then use that inflated valuation as collateral to leverage up further.
And just like that, monopoly money becomes spendable liquidity.
Do you understand the gravity of this?
Most people think the Fed is the only source of inflation.
WRONG.
Private markets are printing phantom collateral, and the bill is coming due.
Trillions in corporate debt will have to be refinanced in 12-24 months.
This debt was issued at near 0% interest.
It’s refinancing at 5% to 8%.
This is extremely BAD, and things get even worse…
Take a look at the buffett indicator.
This is the ultimate measure of valuation vs. the real economy.
– Dot Com Bubble Peak (2000): ~159%
– Global Financial Crisis (2008): ~110%
– Today: We’re close to 200%.
That’s right. The stock market is currently at the most overvalued level in HISTORY.
We’re pricing stocks at DOUBLE their true value.
This is mathematically unsustainable.
AND IT GETS WORSE, AGAIN…
Household equity allocation is also at all-time highs.
This metric tracks how all-in the average investor is.
We’re sitting at 48%.
Think about what that means.
If everyone is already fully invested, who’s left to buy?
I know this sounds scary, because it is.
But don’t worry, I’ll always be here to help you.
I’ve been in this game for more than 20 years, and I publicly called the last 3 market tops and bottoms.
When I make a new move in the market, I’ll share it here like I always do because I want you to succeed.
Many people will regret not following me sooner.
#news #trade #market #USDT
$USDP
$USDT