Indy Crypto Interest 101

You checked your portfolio this morning and your stomach dropped. Bitcoin at $90,916, down 2.7%. Ethereum bleeding at $3,125, down 3.6%. Over $260 million in long positions liquidated in 24 hours. The entire crypto market shed $100 billion, dropping to $3.21 trillion.
Every headline has the same explanation: Trump's threatening Greenland, geopolitical chaos, investors fleeing to gold. Simple story, right? Except if you've been trading crypto for more than a year, this whole scenario should feel weirdly familiar.
We've Seen This Movie Before
Remember early 2025? Trump threatened massive tariffs on China and Mexico. Crypto crashed 15-20% within days. Everyone panicked, convinced a global trade war would destroy risk assets. Headlines screamed about economic Armageddon.
Then what happened? Three weeks later, the situation de-escalated. Negotiations started. Threats softened. Markets recovered and made new highs. Everyone who sold the bottom watched from the sidelines, kicking themselves.
Now here we are again. Trump makes territorial demands. Markets panic. Headlines scream. Traders sell in droves, certain this time is different.
But is it? Or are we just watching the same play with different actors?
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. And right now it's humming a very familiar tune.
The Hidden Money Flow Everyone Missed
Here's where it gets interesting. While everyone obsesses over Greenland, there's a massive institutional cycle that just completed—and almost nobody's talking about it.
Every December, institutions sell losing positions for tax write-offs. It's called tax-loss harvesting. In stocks, wash-sale rules prevent you from buying back the same position for 30 days. But crypto? Those rules are way less restrictive.
So what happened? Throughout December 2025, institutions dumped underwater positions, booking tax losses. Then in early January 2026, they quietly bought everything back.
Look at Ethereum's price action: $3,100 to $3,367 between January 12-18. That's 8.5% in less than a week. Volume peaked during this exact period as institutions reloaded.
But institutional rebalancing doesn't last forever. By mid-January, the buying was done. Positions were back where they wanted them. And then... nothing. No new buyers. No fresh capital. Just a market sitting at resistance with no reason to push higher.
That's when the sell-off started. Not when Greenland news first broke—it had been floating around for days—but exactly when institutional buying stopped.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
The Perfect Storm
What we're experiencing isn't just one thing going wrong. It's five different factors hitting simultaneously:
One: Geopolitical risk. Trump's Greenland demands are real, creating uncertainty.
Two: Institutional tax cycle ended. The buying support from early January evaporated overnight.
Three: Holiday liquidity. Monday was MLK Day—U.S. markets closed. Low liquidity means exaggerated price swings. I honestly forgot about this until it was too late.
Four: Technical weakness. Ethereum failed to break $3,212 multiple times. Bitcoin couldn't reclaim $95,000. Classic resistance rejections.
Five: Regulatory delay. The U.S. crypto bill everyone was excited about? Delayed after Coinbase objected. Removed a positive catalyst.
Any one of these alone is manageable. All five together? That's your 3% dump.
What the Charts Actually Show
Ethereum is testing $3,100-3,130 support. Critical level. If it holds, we bounce. If it breaks, we're likely heading to $3,000.
But here's the fascinating part: the 4-hour Stochastic just hit 7/9. That's extreme oversold—historically rare levels. Markets don't stay this compressed long. Something's got to give, and it's usually a sharp bounce.
The 1-hour RSI is at 23, also deep oversold. Multiple timeframes screaming the same message: selling is exhausted, at least short-term.
Meanwhile, on-chain data tells a completely different story. Ethereum staking just hit a 30-month high—36.1 million ETH locked (29.76% of supply). Validator queue is 44 days deep, longest since July 2023.
Translation: Despite the price crash, long-term holders are more convinced than ever. They're not selling—they're staking.
Bitcoin ETF flows show $394 million pulled out, with Grayscale leading at $205 million. That's real selling pressure. But BlackRock still added $15 million. So it's not universal—it's selective.
Three Ways This Plays Out
Bearish scenario (40% probability): Ethereum breaks $3,100, heads toward $3,000. Bitcoin breaks $88,000, flushes to $71,000-75,000. Happens if Greenland escalates or institutional selling accelerates.
Neutral scenario (35% probability): We chop sideways for one to two weeks. Ethereum ranges $3,100-3,200. Bitcoin consolidates $88,000-95,000. News cycle fades. Volume dies. Market grinds and tortures everyone equally.
Bullish scenario (25% probability): Ethereum reclaims $3,200, pushes toward $3,350-3,660. Bitcoin breaks $104,000, resumes uptrend. Happens if Greenland de-escalates like 2025 tariffs did. Oversold conditions snap back hard.
I'm not giving you certainty because anyone claiming they know exactly what happens next is lying. What I can give you is probabilities based on patterns, technicals, and market structure.
How to Trade This (What Traders Are Saying)
Conservative approach: Wait for Ethereum to test $3,100-3,110 or Bitcoin to test $88,000. Enter with tight stops just below. If levels break, you're out with small loss. If they hold, you're positioned for bounce.
Aggressive approach: Start scaling now. Ethereum at $3,125, add 25% at $3,100, another 50% at $3,080. Stop-loss below $3,050. You'll be underwater for a bit, but you're buying extreme oversold with defined risk.
Long-term holders: A 4-hour Stochastic at 7/9 rarely lasts more than a few candles. Record staking shows smart money accumulating, not distributing. If history is any guide, Trump threats resolve in two to four weeks.
Dollar-cost average. Don't try to catch the exact bottom. Let probabilities work over time.
The Real Question
Markets don't crash on threats—they crash on actual economic damage. Right now, Greenland is 100% talk, 0% action. No tariffs implemented. No military deployed. Just negotiation theater.
Meanwhile, the institutional tax-loss harvesting theory shows real money flows we can track. Real buying in early January that pushed prices up. Real absence of buying now letting them fall. That's actual market mechanics, not headline risk.
The timing—mid-January, right after institutional rebalancing typically completes—tells me the fundamental driver isn't geopolitics. It's money flows. Greenland headlines just gave traders an excuse to sell what they were going to sell anyway.
Here's the kicker: every January for three years has seen mid-month dips followed by February recoveries. Is this year different? Maybe. But betting on "this time is different" usually loses.
Bottom Line
We're seeing a multi-factor selloff combining geopolitical risk, institutional money games, holiday liquidity gaps, technical failures, and cascading liquidations. It's painful and could get worse.
But extreme oversold conditions, record staking, and historical patterns of Trump threats resolving peacefully suggest this is more likely a dip to buy than a trend change. Probability—not certainty—favors a bounce within five to ten days.
That said, if Ethereum breaks $3,100 decisively or Greenland escalates beyond rhetoric, all bets are off. Manage risk. Use stops. Don't bet the farm on oversold technicals.
Keynes said it best: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Don't test that with your account.
The question isn't whether this is scary—it is. The question is whether you'll let headlines dictate decisions, or trade probabilities with proper risk management.
Key levels:
ETH: Support $3,100 | Resistance $3,200 | Stop <$3,090
BTC: Support $88,000 | Resistance $95,000 | Stop <$87,000
Are you buying this dip or waiting for lower? Drop your take below. 👇
#Ethereum #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketCrash
Not financial advice. DYOR. Trade at your own risk.

Understanding What Drives Bitcoin in 2025
Bitcoin used to be a renegade asset. It moved independently of the traditional financial system and responded primarily to events within the crypto ecosystem. But that has changed. In 2025, Bitcoin’s price behavior is heavily influenced by institutional flows, central bank decisions, and cross-market sentiment.
There are three key drivers to understand this year:
First, the post-halving environment. Bitcoin's most recent halving occurred in April 2025, cutting the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings precede bull runs by several months, as supply reduction gradually meets long-term demand. We saw similar delayed rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2020. In 2025, the same pattern is playing out, but with a twist—demand is now also influenced by ETF inflows and the U.S. Treasury’s new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which adds institutional stability but also mutes speculative excess.
Second, monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, once an afterthought for crypto traders, is now central to Bitcoin’s behavior. In March and June of 2025, dovish language from the Fed pushed BTC higher. The market now treats Bitcoin much like a high-growth tech asset—reactive to interest rate expectations and macro liquidity trends. The upcoming September and December Fed meetings will be closely watched by BTC traders.
Third, geopolitical volatility. When Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June, Bitcoin initially dipped as markets entered risk-off mode. Gold rose, the dollar strengthened, and equities pulled back. Yet within 48 hours, Bitcoin rebounded, aided by a narrative of “digital gold in wartime.” This episode revealed the asset’s evolving identity: Bitcoin is not yet a full safe haven, but it is learning to behave like one under specific conditions.

Trading Strategy #1: Swing Trading Around Macro Events
One of the most effective strategies in 2025 is macro-based swing trading. This involves entering trades 24–72 hours before or after major events such as Fed meetings, inflation reports, or large ETF flows.
For example, before the June FOMC meeting, Bitcoin had been drifting sideways for over a week. Traders who anticipated a dovish shift bought near $102,000 and exited near $110,000. That’s an 8% return in less than three days.
This strategy requires:
Monitoring central bank calendarsUnderstanding the difference between market expectations and actual policy shiftsManaging risk with tight stop-losses and smaller positions ahead of volatile releases
Bitcoin no longer reacts solely to crypto-native news. It now trades more like a macro asset with leverage. Recognizing that shift is essential.
Borrowed from blog milern.com

Read full article here: https://milern.com/how-to-trade-bitcoin-in-2025-strategies-for-volatility-halving-and-the-fed/

Introduction

As of June 8, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a relatively tight range near the $105,000 mark. With the crypto market sentiment currently neutral, as shown by the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 55, many traders and investors are facing a classic dilemma: hold, buy the dip, hedge, or stay out? This article explores recent BTC chart patterns, key market indicators, and how traders can think strategically about margin exposure and risk reduction without overreaching.

BTC Market Snapshot: Key Indicators

The BTC/USDT charts (15m, 4h, 1D, and 1W) reveal a number of important signals:

Stochastic RSI: Multiple timeframes show cooling momentum. The 15-minute and 4-hour charts are entering oversold zones.MACD: Bearish crossover is evident on lower timeframes, signaling short-term downtrend pressure.EMA & Bollinger Bands: BTC is hugging the middle to lower range of Bollinger bands. This can suggest potential volatility bursts ahead.Order Book Depth: Current market depth shows balanced but cautious sentiment, with dense layering of buy orders in the $104,000–$105,000 region, and aggressive sell stacking above $105,500.

Fear and Greed Index: Sentiment Analysis

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 55, indicating neither panic nor euphoria. Historically, BTC often consolidates or mildly retraces during this kind of sentiment pause. Here's how recent index values look:

Yesterday: 52 (Neutral)Last Week: 56 (Neutral-Greed)Last Month: 53 (Neutral)

This lack of emotional extremes means traders should expect a more technical trading environment, influenced less by crowd panic and more by resistance/support reactions.

Interpreting Market Depth and Recent Volatility

The depth chart shows relatively even stacking on both sides, but slightly more aggressive buyers at $104,500–105,000 and sell walls forming near $105,500–$106,000. This suggests potential compression and a breakout setup. However, MACD and RSI indicators are flattening, which typically signals indecision and potential sharp moves.

Volatility compression patterns often precede breakouts. Currently, the market leans slightly bearish intraday, but not with major volume. A news catalyst (macroeconomic or regulatory) could easily tip the scales in either direction.

Upcoming Events & Broader Market Trends

Several macro factors and events could sway BTC in the coming weeks:

FOMC Statement (June 12, 2025): Any hawkish tone from the Fed could dampen risk appetite.ETF Activity: Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have slowed but remain net positive, suggesting continued institutional interest.Altcoin Rotation: Capital seems to be rotating between BTC and large-cap alts, particularly ETH and SOL, which could dilute BTC's short-term upside.Stock Market Correlation: BTC continues to trade with moderate correlation to tech stocks. If equity markets pull back, BTC may face temporary pressure.Bitcoin Halving Afterglow: The April 2024 halving continues to shape market dynamics. Historically, 6–12 months post-halving, BTC has experienced upward momentum. The market may be entering the early stage of this pattern.

Risk Management and Margin Strategy

One of the most critical aspects of crypto trading is managing liquidation risk.

Let’s consider examples for BTC on various margin levels, starting at an entry price of $100,000:

3x Margin: To avoid liquidation at $50,000 (a 50% drop), only ~$333 can be risked from a $1,000 account.5x Margin: Safer balance. Investing ~$600 allows a trader to endure a 35–40% drop without full liquidation.20x Margin: High risk. Only $75–80 from $1,000 can be used to survive a 35% price crash. Liquidation happens fast with minor volatility.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and all investing involves risk. The examples above are hypothetical for illustration only.

Hedging as a Safety Buffer

To reduce risk further, traders can explore basic hedging strategies using negatively correlated or less correlated assets. For example:

Long BTC + small short position in ETH (or vice versa)Long SUI + partial short in NEAR or ALGO

These setups aim to limit account damage during sharp market drops by offsetting losses in one asset with gains in another. While this can reduce overall profits, it can also meaningfully protect capital.

Pure pair trades (low directional bets) are increasingly used by professionals to capitalize on relative performance divergence while limiting market exposure.

Forecast: Can BTC Fall Below $100,000 in 2025?

While a dip below $100,000 remains within the realm of possibility—especially under high macroeconomic pressure—it is unlikely to break far below without a black swan event. Here’s why:

Historical Support: Strong demand zones from $95,000–100,000.Institutional Entry: Large institutions have entered at or near $100K, reinforcing this level.ETF Flows: Even with lower volumes, spot ETFs continue to support demand.Derivatives Positioning: Funding rates remain modest, not extreme, indicating low leverage excess.

In a normal correction, BTC could fall to the $98,000–101,000 range, where buying support typically returns. Bearish breakdown below $95,000 would likely require a combination of regulatory, political, or macroeconomic shocks.

Will BTC Go Up in 2025? The Bullish Case

Despite short-term consolidation, several tailwinds could push BTC higher this year:

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: If inflation slows further and interest rates peak, risk assets like BTC could benefit.Scarcity Narrative: Post-halving, fewer BTC enter circulation daily. With demand steady or rising, this creates a natural upward bias.Institutional Accumulation: On-chain data continues to show accumulation by large wallets and ETF custodians.Geopolitical Risk: Global uncertainty in fiat systems and regional conflict often push investors toward decentralized stores of value.Technical Patterns: Weekly and daily charts suggest ascending triangle formations and consolidation above previous highs—a classic setup for a bullish breakout in Q3/Q4.

If BTC maintains the $100K–105K range into July, a break above $112,000–115,000 could set up a rally toward $125,000–135,000 later in the year.

Risk Disclosure is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute advice. Markets are unpredictable. Risk only what you can afford to lose.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin in 2025 remains a powerful mix of speculation, innovation, and macro-driven dynamics. For those looking to build wealth through crypto, the key isn’t chasing every pump—it’s positioning with discipline, hedging risk, and managing exposure wisely.

BTC is no longer just a speculative asset. It has become a central pillar of digital finance. Whether we see $90K or $150K this year, how you position yourself today could shape your financial landscape for years to come.

For those balancing profit goals with capital protection, a moderate margin strategy with a diversified hedge may offer the best mix of upside and staying power.

May 31, 2025
$SUI and $BTC BTC Pessimistic and Optimistic Analysis:

Pessimistic:

Current Market Analysis: SUI & BTC (as of your latest charts)

SUI (SUI/USDT):

Price Zone: ~$3.26–3.27.15m + 4h Charts: Slight bounce after sharp drop. MACD still bearish; Stoch RSI recovering but not strongly bullish yet. Volume weakening.1D Chart: MACD still negative, Stoch RSI low but not reversing decisively. EMA pressure remains from above.Order Book: Strong buy walls in $3.22–3.24 zone, but resistance thickens above $3.28–3.30 and again at $3.35.Forecast: Unless BTC breaks down, SUI likely consolidates between $3.22–3.32 short-term. Breakdown below $3.22 could target $3.15. Upside likely capped at $3.35–3.38 for now unless volume spikes.

BTC (BTC/USDT):

Price Zone: ~$104,500–104,600.15m + 4h Charts: MACD flattening; Stoch RSI recovering from oversold. VPVR shows major resistance at $104,800–105,000. OBV slightly negative, showing weak buying interest.Forecast: BTC may range between $104,200–104,800 unless macro or large buyer shifts momentum. Slight edge toward short-term recovery, but strong resistance overhead.

Conclusion:

SUI: Neutral to slightly bearish; likely stays under pressure if BTC doesn’t lead.BTC: Sideways bias with mild recovery potential, but capped by $104.8K.

No clear long/short setup right now unless SUI retests $3.22 or BTC nears $105K and stalls.

 

Optimistic:

Looking at charts:

Current SUI Analysis:

Technical Picture:

Price: $3.2679, down from recent highs around $3.58RSI: 40.79 (oversold territory, bouncing from extreme lows)Stochastic: 18.05/11.94 (deeply oversold, starting to curl up)MACD: Still bearish but momentum slowingVolume: 49.995M showing decent participation

Critical Order Book Analysis (Image 4): The depth chart reveals a massive order imbalance favoring the downside - this is actually bullish for a contrarian bounce:

Heavy sell walls from $3.27-$3.43 (over 1.4M SUI stacked)Key liquidity vacuum between $3.20-$3.26Strong support building at $3.20 (35.41K) and $3.23 (177.56K)

BTC Context (Images 5-6):

BTC consolidating around $104,596, showing stabilityNo major directional pressure from BTC to interfere with alt movesClean range-bound action supports strategy's sweet spot

Forecast & Trade Setup:

Immediate Outlook (Next 2-6 hours):

High probability bounce from $3.20-$3.23 zoneTarget the liquidity vacuum up to $3.35-$3.40Potential 4-6% move = 80-120% with 20x leverage

Entry Strategy:

Primary Entry: $3.21-$3.23 if order book shows 1.5:1+ buy imbalanceSecondary Entry: $3.195-$3.205 (final support test)Stop Loss: $3.18 (clean break below major support)

Targets:

Target 1: $3.35 (first resistance cluster) - 4.5% moveTarget 2: $3.40 (major resistance) - 6% moveTarget 3: $3.45+ if momentum sustains

Risk Factors:

If BTC breaks below $104,300, could drag SUI lowerWatch for continued selling pressure above $3.30Volume needs to increase on any bounce attempt

This setup perfectly fits consolidation-phase strategy with clear levels and strong risk/reward. The oversold oscillators + order book imbalance + BTC stability create an ideal environment for contrarian approach.

Current Status:

Price: $3.2520 (confirmed)24h Change: -0.0690 (-2.08%)24h High: 3.371124h Low: 3.0530

Technical Picture:

RSI: 53.45 (neutral, recovering from oversold)Stochastic: 30.60/34.22 (still room to run higher)MACD: Showing slight positive momentum (0.0244)Volume: 39.217K (decent participation)

Order Book Analysis: I can see the depth chart showing resistance levels building above current price, but the bounce from that $3.0530 low to current $3.2520 represents a 6.5% recovery - exactly the type of move contrarian strategy targets.

Key Levels:

Support: $3.20-$3.22 (recent consolidation)Resistance: $3.27-$3.30 (order book shows building walls)Next target: $3.35+ if momentum continues

This is a textbook example of contrarian bounce strategy working - the flush to $3.05 cleared out sellers, and now we're seeing the snap-back recovery through the liquidity vacuum.

Comprehensive SUI/USDT Analysis - Post-Flush Recovery

Current Market State:

Price: $3.2520 (+6.5% from $3.0530 low)24h Range: $3.0530 - $3.3711 (9.4% daily range)Volume: Healthy 63M+ SUI / 201M+ USDT participation

Technical Momentum:

RSI 53.45: Neutral zone with upward bias from oversold recoveryStochastic 30.60/34.22: Still oversold with significant room for continuationMACD: Positive divergence (+0.0244) confirming momentum shiftOBV: Volume supporting the price recovery

Order Book Dynamics: The depth chart reveals classic post-flush characteristics:

Heavy resistance stacked $3.27-$3.41 (600K+ SUI walls)Lighter support below $3.20 but sufficient for current momentumLiquidity vacuum filled between $3.05-$3.25 during the recovery

Strategy Validation: This move perfectly exemplifies contrarian approach:

Flush Phase: Drop to $3.0530 cleared all weak hands and stop-lossesImbalance Creation: Massive sell walls above created upward pressureRecovery Snap: 6.5% bounce through liquidity vacuumVolume Confirmation: 39.217K volume supporting the move

Forward Outlook:

Immediate Targets (Next 2-4 hours):

Resistance 1: $3.27 (first major wall) - 0.8% moveResistance 2: $3.30 (psychological level) - 1.5% moveResistance 3: $3.35 (heavy order concentration) - 3.1% move

Risk Management:

Support: $3.20 (bounce consolidation level)Stop Loss: $3.15 (break of recovery structure)BTC Correlation: Monitor $104K level for broader market stability

Trading Opportunity: With 20x leverage, even a 1.5% move to $3.30 = 30% returns. The oversold stochastic and recovering RSI suggest this bounce has legs. Best entry would be on any pullback to $3.23-$3.25 support with targets at the resistance clusters above.

Bottom Line: Classic contrarian setup executed perfectly - flush created the setup, bounce is delivering the profits.

 

$BTC and $SUI Analysis — May 25, 2025

Not a trading or financial advice – sharing analysis for our own personal use

Analysis: SUI breaking down - major sell-off in progress

Current situation at $3.4566:

Sharp breakdown from weekend consolidation around $3.65 Volume spiking to 25.58M (massive selling pressure) Technical breakdown through key support levels RSI falling to 44.96 on daily chart (bearish momentum building)

What triggered this:

Weekend thin liquidity allowed for aggressive selling Likely more exploit-related liquidations hitting the market Breaking below $3.55-3.60 support triggered stop losses

Order book analysis:

Massive support at $3.40-3.50: Over 1.5M SUI in buy orders But sellers are overwhelming: Breaking through resistance levels Deep support at $3.30-3.35: Another 800K+ SUI Below $3.26: Very thin until $2.60 range(!)

 

🧭 Technical Overview:

1. Trend & Price Action:

1D + 4H + 15min charts: Clear breakdown structure. Price failed to reclaim $3.62–$3.65, forming a local lower high. New local low at $3.45, with declining volume suggesting sellers are pausing—but no buyers stepping in yet.

2. Orderbook & Volume Profile:

Thickest support zone: $3.40–$3.30 (heavy buy walls and historical VPVR node). Resistance: Now clearly forming at $3.62–$3.66. Order book shows growing depth from $3.45 down to $3.30, with major clusters at: $3.45 (180K+) $3.42–$3.40 (400K+) $3.30 (484K)

3. Indicators:

MACD: Bearish on all timeframes. RSI: Neutral to oversold (31–45 range), giving room for further downside. Stoch: Daily and 4H in downward trend, with no crossover yet.

4. Depth Chart:

Clear buyer concentration from $3.45–$3.30, but not enough to initiate reversal yet. No aggressive market bids—this is mostly passive buy interest.

 

Forecast:

Immediate target: $3.40-3.45 range (major support test) If that breaks: Quick drop to $3.30-3.35 Worst case: Gap down to $3.00-3.20 if panic selling accelerates

Buy orders at $3.45 should fill soon. This might be the capitulation move you've been waiting for. Below $3.0 liquidation gives decent cushion for this volatility.

Probability of falling below $3.00: ~30-40%

Factors supporting sub-$3.00:

Massive selling pressure: 25.58M volume shows panic/forced liquidations Exploit aftermath: Still unwinding $223M in stolen funds Thin support below $3.26: Only 27K orders until $2.60 Weekend liquidity: Lower participation = bigger moves Technical breakdown: Clean break of all major support levels

Factors against sub-$3.00:

Massive walls at $3.40-3.50: 1.5M+ SUI support $3.30-3.35: Another 800K+ SUI cushion Extreme oversold: Already down 20%+ from recent highs Your liquidation at below $3.0: Suggests others have similar levels

Most likely scenarios:

60% chance: Bounces between $3.30-3.50 range 30% chance: Breaks to $2.80-3.00 range (panic selling) 10% chance: Complete capitulation below $2.80

Bottom line: Possible but not very probable. The support structure suggests $3.30-3.40 is more likely to hold, but the exploit damage creates tail risk for deeper drops.

Below $2.9-3.0 liquidation positioned well for even worst-case scenarios.

 

Summary:
SUI is experiencing continued selling pressure, showing a steep rejection from the $3.70–$3.75 region. The price is currently at $3.45 with visible momentum weakening across all timeframes.

🔮 Forecast / Strategy:

Short-Term (1–2 days):

Most likely scenario: slow grind to $3.40–$3.30 unless BTC rallies. If BTC stabilizes above $109K, SUI may defend $3.45–$3.50 as short-term support. If BTC dips again → expect a flush into $3.30–$3.25, possibly $3.20.

Medium-Term (Next week):

Still possible revisit of $3.65–$3.70 range, but only if macro improves. Below $3.30, next strong support = $3.10–$3.00. Liquidation spikes could temporarily pierce below that.

✅ Possible Actions (Not a trading or financial advice, but our potential tactic):

For buyers (spot or cautious margin):

Small buys at: $3.42, $3.38, $3.33, $3.30 — ladder entries. Consider holding larger buy orders for $3.20–$3.00 if price collapses. Avoid heavy exposure above $3.60 unless BTC shows strong breakout.

For current holders:

If you are already exposed with liquidation at ~$2.80–$2.90, there is no immediate threat, but a breakdown to $3.10 is possible.

Falling below $3.00 for SUI is possible, but not highly probable in the short term, unless external shocks occur.

🔍 Current Conditions (as of May 25, 2025):

Massive buy walls exist from $3.30–$3.00 (millions of SUI in cumulative orders). SUI has already corrected ~15%-20% recently. Daily RSI and Stoch are near oversold. BTC is stabilizing around $107-$108K — if that holds or climbs, SUI likely won’t crash deeper. If not, then it may crash deeper.

📉 Probability Breakdown:

Scenario
Probability
Retest of $3.30–$3.20
High (60–70%)
Wick to $3.10–$3.00
Moderate (30–40%)
Clean break and hold below $3.00
Low (10–20%)
Fall to $2.50–$2.80 range
Very low (under 10%)

🧨 Conditions That Could Trigger Drop Below $3.00:

BTC crashes below $104K fast. Another large-scale FUD or exploit involving SUI. Liquidity drain or whale liquidation event. Weekend illiquidity + forced selling cascade.

If you’re heavily exposed, managing risk below $3.20 makes sense. But a crash sub-$3.00 would likely require an event-driven catalyst, not just chart mechanics.

$BTC

Major concern - BTC is also breaking down significantly:

Critical BTC situation:

BTC dropping to $108,875 from recent $111k+ levels Breaking key support around $109k psychological level Heavy sell walls below at $107k-108k (massive resistance if it bounces) Risk-off environment developing across crypto

This explains SUI's accelerated drop:

Macro headwind: When BTC breaks down, alts get crushed harder SUI at $3.45 is getting hit by both exploit selling AND broader market weakness Correlation risk: Even if SUI finds bottom, BTC weakness limits recovery

Updated risk assessment:

Probability of SUI sub-$3.00 increases to 50%+ given BTC breakdown BTC support at $107k-108k is critical for entire crypto market If BTC breaks $107k: Expect SUI to test $2.80-3.20 range rapidly

Position: Still well-positioned with $2.9-$3.0 liquidation, but the macro environment just got much more challenging. BTC's technical breakdown adds significant downside risk to all crypto positions.

Watch BTC $107k level closely - if that breaks, prepare for deeper SUI weakness.

Given current momentum, there’s a moderate risk SUI could fall below $3.00 if BTC continues sliding. However, strong liquidity zones sit between $3.30–$3.45, making an immediate deep drop less probable unless BTC breaks down sharply under $106k. Monitor BTC closely.

 

SUI Probability of Recovery and Timeline

🔍 SUI Forecast Summary (May 25, 2025)

📉 Current Trend Overview

Price dropped hard below $3.65 and is testing $3.45–3.50 support. Strong volume on the drop → bearish pressure confirmed. MACD & RSI on all timeframes are bearish, Stoch RSI oversold but not recovering. BTC looks heavy; correlation implies SUI will struggle to recover independently in the short term. Order book is stacked below $3.50 → bounce possible but shaky.

📊 Recovery Forecast

Timeline
Probability of Recovery Above $3.80
Reasoning
Next 24–48h
⬇️ ~20–30%
Bearish structure still dominant. Oversold, but no strong reversal yet.
3–7 days
⬆️ ~40–50%
Possible technical rebound if BTC stabilizes or rises; $3.70–3.80 retest.
2–4 weeks
⬆️ ~65–75%
Likely range reclaim above $3.80 if BTC holds $105K+ and macro doesn’t worsen.
Drop below $3.00
🟠 ~25–35% (short term)
Still possible if BTC falls below $105K again or more bad news emerges.

⏳ Key Recovery Levels

$3.50 = Last line of local support (volume node) $3.65–$3.70 = First real resistance $3.80+ = Momentum shift zone (start of recovery) $4.00+ = Confidence restored, unlikely short-term without BTC helping

🧠 What to Watch

BTC stability > $106K SUI reclaiming 3.65+ with volume MACD crossover on 4H or daily New liquidity inflows or token-specific news

 

Potential Buy Zones?

🔽 SUI Buy Zones (May 25, 2025)

Price Level
Strength
Notes
$3.46–3.48
✅ Strong
High volume support, already being tested
$3.40–3.43
✅ Strong
Dense buy wall, next major support zone
$3.30–3.33
⚠️ Medium
Historical interest, but if hit too fast → could crack easily
$3.15–3.20
⚠️ Weak/Opportunistic
Only if BTC sharply breaks $106K. Good risk-reward for wicks
$3.00–3.05
🚨 Panic Level
Likely only triggered on BTC dump < $104K. Not base-case scenario

 

Avoid full exposure unless daily trend reverses. Watch RSI on the 1h and 4h — sharp reversal with volume is the best entry confirmation.

Update, it looks like BTC may be weakening.