📌 Just sharing my thoughts for fun & learning. Not financial advice 🙃 only my personal views and market vibes. If you like my take on $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, other alts & macro, follow me. Comment, share news, or tag me ☄️ let’s discuss and learn together!
⚠️ $BTC monthly close warning In 5 days, the monthly candle closes. That timing matters. As it stands right now, this candle looks textbook bearish. No drama, no narratives, just structure and positioning. Monthly candles don’t give many signals, but when they do, they tend to matter. A lot can still change in a few days, but ignoring the monthly close here would be a mistake. This is the kind of context that can shift bias for weeks, not hours. Watching how $BTC behaves into the end of the month very closely
Locally, there is definitely a case for a bounce. We have bullish divergence on the 4H below the yearly open, price trading around the value area low of the range, plus a clear liquidity grab. There’s also divergence visible on the 8H. That said, money flow is still trending red, so this looks more like a reaction than a full reversal for now. Short-term upside is possible, but higher timeframes still need confirmation. Watching how price reacts if this bounce develops.
On the weekly, money flow is breaking below zero. We have a red dot that still needs confirmation or invalidation this week, so this candle matters more than usual. There’s a real chance we won’t get a clean touch of the 50WMA this cycle. In previous cycles, that retest usually came first and marked key moments. This time, structure looks different. So far, the anchored VWAP from the ATH retest gave the best short entry of the cycle. That reaction was technical and respected, which says a lot about current positioning. Weekly confirmation will decide whether this is continuation or just another pause.
A bit of technical talk, but it matters. I’m holding based on price vs oscillator divergence on the 1-minute timeframe. That divergence gave a clear signal for a potential local top and roughly a 2% pullback, which hasn’t been taken out for over 24 hours. That kind of reaction shows weakness. Even when it’s only visible on very low timeframes, it’s often enough reason to reduce risk. When the 1-minute chart starts showing weakness, taking some off the table makes sense. I reduced a few percent of my position here and let the rest run. Small signals still matter when structure agrees.
Seriously speaking, this amount of liquidity is not typical for a textbook bottom. It doesn’t look clean or comfortable. At the same time, I’ve never seen a perfect bottom where only spot buyers were involved. Real bottoms are messy and usually come with heavy positioning on derivatives. For now, I’m allowing myself to get stopped out. We already have a structure shift on H4 and H8, and that matters more to me than forcing a bias. Next direction depends on how $BTC reacts to this new structure. Watching lower timeframes closely from here.
I know many will say the drop happened because of Trump tariffs. That narrative came after the move.
My setup was planned well in advance and the position was opened purely based on technical structure and levels, before any tariff headlines appeared.
Price often moves first. Stories follow later.
Right now the focus is on how $BTC behaves after the impulse. Continuation or reclaim will decide the next bias. Charts matter more than headlines here.
📈 $BTC goes up and everyone screams bull market 📉 $BTC pulls back 2% and timelines declare the end 🐂 Bulls zoom in on monthly charts 🐻 Bears zoom in on the 5 minute chart 🤹 Meanwhile the market does whatever it wants
Same charts, same candles, completely different emotions.
📊 Multiple timeframes are sending mixed but important signals 🧱 Higher timeframes are testing key resistance zones 🔍 Lower timeframes show cooling momentum and visible divergences ⚖️ Bulls still defend structure, bears still apply pressure
ETF flows earlier in the week showed strong spot demand, while the slowdown into Friday adds another layer of uncertainty. This is the type of environment where patience and context matter more than speed. The coming weekly and monthly closes will likely answer questions that intraday moves cannot. Until then, this is a market built on reactions, not confirmations. Quiet Sundays often matter more than loud weekdays.
📊 The key point will be whether the January candle closes above the wick of the December candle 📅 That monthly close could set the tone for the next phase
🐂 Bulls clearly ran out of the gate 🐻 But as usual, bears are trying to keep them in check
📊 The table shows strong spot buying from ETFs on Wednesday and Thursday ⏸️ On Friday, that activity clearly slowed down 👀 This pause in flows is worth tracking closely
📉 Clear local bearish divergence visible on this timeframe 📈 At the same time, bulls may point to a developing inverse head and shoulders structure 📊 The pattern is visible both on price and confirmed by momentum and RSI ⚖️ This creates a classic short term conflict between divergence pressure and reversal structure
The next move should resolve which signal takes control on this timeframe.
📊 A similar situation to the daily timeframe 📉 Bearish divergence formed between the $94.3K and $97.9K levels 📈 The divergence is visible on RSI and Money Flow ⚡ Momentum, however, topped higher with an unusually strong wave around the 100 level, possibly the strongest I have seen 🔄 This divergence on H4 is likely contributing to the pullback visible on the daily chart
Shorter timeframes are cooling while higher timeframes still develop.
📉 As expected, the move toward the $96K area came with bearish divergence 📊 The divergence is visible on momentum only 📈 RSI is still trending higher 💧 Money Flow also continues to trend upward 📐 The $98.0K level lines up with a local Fibonacci retracement measured from the drop between $126K and the $81K low
I am expecting one more push higher from here. That scenario goes against my current short position, so I am watching this area closely.
📊 We have found resistance at VWAP, anchored to the previous cycle top candle around the $126K level 🤔 Whether this becomes the final local top is still unclear 📈 The 50 week moving average sits only about 2.5% higher, so the area remains sensitive ⏳ This view is still incomplete, the full weekly update comes in about 1 day and 12 hours
A proper breakdown and full context will be shared in the night from Sunday to Monday.