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Binance is about to become one of the largest buyers of Bitcoin and the market is still underestimating its impact.
Binance has announced it will convert its SAFU fund into $1 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next 30 days.
It also said that if the value of its Bitcoin holdings falls below $800 million, it will buy more BTC to bring the value back to $1 billion.
That means SAFU is no longer held in stablecoins. It is now a permanent BTC allocation with automatic rebalancing.
In simple terms: • Spot Bitcoin demand is being created • And that demand is ongoing, not temporary
This matters because Binance is the largest crypto exchange and a systemically important entity in this market.
When an entity like this commits to holding and maintaining $1B in BTC, it changes short-term supply and demand dynamics.
We have seen something similar before.
In March 2023, Binance deployed about $1B from SAFU into BTC, ETH, and BNB during a weak market phase.
Over the next year: • BTC moved from $22k to $74k • ETH rallied from $1.4k to above $4k • BNB almost made a new all-time high
This time, the full allocation is only into Bitcoin, not split across assets.
Because this buying is public and scheduled, other large players can front-run it. That often adds additional demand before the full allocation is even completed.
At the same time, several short-term headwinds have eased: • Clarity ACT is moving forward • New Fed chair is pro-crypto and pro-rate cuts.
Gold and silver have also corrected recently. When metals go down, liquidity often looks for another market.
This too could bring additional liquidity into crypto.
That doesn’t mean we will see a parabolic rally, but a relief rally is definitely possible here.
A "partial" government shutdown is now live after the House failed to vote on a funding deal.
Lawmakers may fix it when they reconvene on Monday — or they may not.
Because it happened over the weekend, markets had NO chance to react.
That reaction now comes Monday morning.
Until then, markets open with headline risk.
Here’s what traders will be watching at the open:
• Futures reaction at the open • Volatility spikes from policy uncertainty • Risk assets pricing a longer shutdown • Rotation into Treasuries and safe havens • Missing economic data creating macro blind spots
Historically, short shutdowns rarely crash markets.
But they do increase uncertainty — and markets hate uncertainty more than bad news.
Because this shutdown began while liquidity was thin, price discovery was delayed, not avoided.
A US government shutdown is basically confirmed at 12:00 AM ET tomorrow.
Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing an 86% chance.. US government shutdown as funding expires at midnight Friday.
This is a data blackout.
Here’s what we could be facing:
– The Jobs Report (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed.
– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): The data collectors for the Consumer Price Index stop working. This means we won't know if inflation is going up or down.
– GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically halts operations, meaning no GDP updates and no PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).
– CFTC Reports: The "Commitment of Traders" (CoT) report, which tells us how the big money is positioned, stops coming out.
– The SEC halts mostly everything except emergency enforcement.
– IPO & M&A Stalled: New IPOs and merger reviews get put on hold. If you’re waiting for a deal approval, good luck.
– Historically, shutdowns shave about 0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.
The longer this lasts, the more the "uncertainty discount" gets priced into stocks.
Anyway, I’ll keep you updated on what he does.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
🚨GOLD CRASHES 12% IN WORST ONE-DAY DROP IN 40 YEARS Spot gold hit a low of $4,682/oz as a violent sell-off ripped through precious metals, marking the steepest single-day collapse since the early 1980s.
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