GEMINI

#Bitcoin has now entered its fifth straight month of correction, with the move largely beginning after the October 10 liquidity event that caused heavy damage in the futures market. On that day alone, more than 70,000 BTC in open interest was wiped out, erasing over $8 billion. Since then, overall market liquidity has continued to weaken, shown by #stablecoins flowing out of exchanges and an estimated $10 billion drop in total stablecoin market cap. At the same time, Bitcoin spot demand has cooled significantly.

Since October, spot trading volumes have been cut nearly in half, with #Binance volumes falling from around $200 billion to about $104 billion. This has pushed spot activity back to some of the lowest levels seen since 2024, signaling reduced investor participation and weaker demand. With uncertainty still high, the market is not favoring risk taking and any sustainable recovery will likely depend on a clear return of spot trading volume.

On chain analysis looks beyond price by tracking the real cost basis of different investor groups. A key signal is the crossover between 1 month buyers and the 6 month holder cohort. When this crossover happens, it often shows a shift in ownership from short term, weaker hands to longer term, stronger holders. In past cycles, this change has closely matched entries and exits from deep bear market phases. This makes cohort cost basis crossovers a simple but powerful tool for identifying major market regime shifts.

For the first time since launch, US spot #Bitcoin ETF holders are sitting in net unrealized losses, with BTC trading below their average cost basis near $84k. Until now, this group has absorbed volatility with little hesitation, steadily bidding despite pullbacks.

This shift turns attention to positioning rather than price alone. The coming sessions will show whether ETF demand remains sticky or if pressure builds through redemptions. The response here matters, as ETF behavior has become a major driver of short term market direction.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin has fallen below its True Market Mean for the first time in about 2.5 years. The last time this happened, BTC was around $29,000. This is a rare on chain signal that usually appears during high fear and heavy selling. Historically, it has shown up closer to market reset zones than market tops.

#XRP’s realized price is sitting near $1.48, and the current setup strongly resembles the market structure from April 2022. Back then, price moved in a tight range as participants positioned themselves ahead of a larger move. Similar behavior now suggests the market may be in an accumulation phase, where patience matters more than speed. A clear breakout or breakdown will likely define the next trend, so watching liquidity zones and overall crypto market direction is key...

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin has seen a sharp sell off, pushing the spot price down to $78.6K, placing it below several major on chain valuation benchmarks. The Short Term Holder cost basis remains elevated at $95.4K, indicating widespread losses among recent entrants, while the Active Investors’ mean price of $87.3K also sits well above current levels. Price has now slipped under the True Market Mean at $80.5K, a zone often associated with fair valuation, reflecting rising market pressure and fear.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price at $55.9K continues to define a key long term support level, the market is still far from historically deep undervaluation. This setup points to a period of stress-driven behavior that has, in past cycles, aligned with late correction phases or early accumulation opportunities.

#Bitcoin is currently going through the largest correction of this cycle, following a sharp 6.6% drop in the most recent session. After topping out near $126,000, BTC has now pulled back by around 36.9%. Although this is the deepest retracement seen so far in the cycle, it remains relatively mild when compared to historical bear market declines.

In every previous cycle, once Bitcoin entered a true bear market, total drawdowns eventually exceeded 75%. Against that backdrop, the current correction still fits within the range of a cycle level pullback rather than signaling a confirmed market top.

Around $ETH 5 billion in long positions would be liquidated if #BTC moves by about $10,000 ❗️

Still Extreme Fear 👀

So far, capitulation zones have not reappeared, as the blue bars remain absent. Over the past three years, the market has instead moved into euphoria phases multiple times, highlighted by the red bars. Strong optimism has dominated, while a true fear driven reset is still pending and may be needed for a healthier market structure ahead.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Over the past 24 hours, about 35,100 #BTC have been sent to exchanges at a realized loss, one of the most notable spikes in recent weeks.

Long liquidations worth nearly $300 million were triggered as #Bitcoin moved lower, adding heavy sell pressure and pushing the price down further.

A sharp move down to $82.9K put strong pressure on the derivatives market, triggering a large wave of long liquidations within the last 24 hours. The scale of these forced closures reflects aggressive leverage on the long side.

Even so, Funding Rates have stayed positive, indicating that many traders are still positioning for upside. Deleveraging remains incomplete and the market could see continued volatility if price action challenges these remaining long positions.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from fear to extreme fear 👀

#Bitcoin started the year strong, printing two higher highs and reaching $95.6k. The move pushed price into a key supply zone held by Long Term Holders. Price is now trading inside the April to July 2025 LTH distribution area.

Since November, rallies into the $93k to $110k range have faced steady sell pressure. This zone is a major barrier between correction and bullish continuation. Absorbing this overhead supply is crucial for a clear trend shift.

Market dynamics are shifting as the 90 day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falls sharply from nearly 19 in July 2025 to about 1.7 today. This move highlights weakening demand and rising frustration among investors, as realized losses begin to catch up with profits.

Similar readings in the past have aligned with low liquidity environments like those seen in 2018 and 2022. If history rhymes, the market may be entering another quiet consolidation phase before a clearer direction emerges.