Liberty Epoch

Ethereum (ETH) is facing a severe liquidity test as it enters February 2026, with the price plummeting 12.7% in just 48 hours to trade near $2,636. The decline is being fueled by a massive capitulation from "mega-whales" addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH who have offloaded over 1.1 million ETH ($2.8 billion) in the past week alone. This aggressive distribution has confirmed a bearish ascending wedge breakdown, a technical failure that now projects a further 16% slide toward the $2,465 level. With the total supply in profit dipping below 50%, the market is caught in a high-tension state where fear-driven liquidation could overwhelm the remaining support zones.
The Whale Exodus: $2.8 Billion in Sell-Side Pressure
The primary driver of Ethereum's recent weakness is a coordinated reduction in exposure by its largest holders.
Aggressive Distribution: Whale wallets have liquidated approximately 1.1 million ETH over the last seven days. This $2.8 billion influx of supply into spot markets has created a directional imbalance that buyers are currently struggling to absorb.Liquidity Strain: This large-scale selling has not only suppressed the price but also neutralized several attempted recoveries, as setiap bounce is being met with a secondary wave of institutional-grade selling.
Profit Metrics: The 50% Fear Threshold
On-chain data reveals that the "psychological floor" for many holders is currently being tested.
Supply in Profit: For the first time in recent months, the percentage of ETH supply in profit has dropped below 50%.The Two-Sided Risk: While this often leads to a temporary pause in selling as investors hesitate to "realize" losses, it also creates a fragile environment. If the price slides further, this cohort may pivot toward panic-selling to prevent deeper drawdowns, potentially accelerating the move toward the $2,400 range.
Technical Breakdown: The $2,465 Bearish Target
The loss of key structural levels has shifted Ethereum’s technical outlook from consolidation to a full-scale correction.
Wedge Confirmation: The recent 12.7% dip confirmed the breakdown of an ascending wedge pattern. The technical height of this formation projects a total downward move targeting $2,465.Support and Reclaim: The absolute line in the sand is $2,570. If Ethereum fails to hold this level, the path toward $2,465 becomes the path of least resistance. To invalidate this bearish setup, bulls must stage a high-volume reclaim of the $2,802 resistance a move that currently seems distant without a major sentiment shift.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a $2.8 billion whale sell-off and a potential 16% price crash are based on technical analysis and on-chain data as of late January 2026. Market conditions are subject to extreme volatility; technical patterns like the "ascending wedge" are probabilistic and can be invalidated by sudden shifts in global macro conditions or ecosystem news. The drop in "supply in profit" is a lagging indicator and does not guarantee a specific price floor. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

Do you think the $2.8 billion whale exodus is the final shakeout before a recovery, or is the $2,465 target inevitable?