Dom Nguyen - Dom Trading

🚨 THE U.S. SHUTDOWN IS 6 DAYS AWAY — AND IT FEELS UNCOMFORTABLY FAMILIAR

Let me speak plainly for a moment.
This doesn’t feel like political theater anymore.
In six days, the U.S. government could shut down.
We’ve been here before.
And the last time it happened, gold and silver quietly ran to all-time highs

while most people were still arguing about headlines.
If you’re holding stocks, crypto, bonds even cash it’s worth understanding what a shutdown actually does to markets.
The biggest risk isn’t panic. It’s not knowing.
A shutdown doesn’t just pause services.
It turns off the data.

No CPI.
No jobs numbers.
No balance-sheet updates.
That creates a data blackout.
When the Fed loses visibility,
models stop working and decisions get delayed.
Markets can handle bad news.
They struggle with blindness.

Here’s what tends to build quietly during a shutdown:
1) Uncertainty snowballs
With no fresh data, risk gets repriced defensively.

2) Credit nerves creep in
A shutdown raises downgrade risk when the system is already stretched.
Big money doesn’t wait — it de-risks.

3) Liquidity gets tighter
The RRP buffer is thin.
If dealers start holding cash, funding markets can freeze quickly.

4) Growth takes a hit
Each week of shutdown costs roughly 0.2% of GDP.
In a slowing economy, that matters.

The important thing to remember:
Money doesn’t disappear in moments like this.
It moves.
First into cash.
Then into safety.
Only later back into risk.
That transition is rarely smooth.
I’m not trying to scare anyone.

I’m just sharing how this looks from experience.
I’ll keep watching and updating as this plays out.
And when I make adjustments, I’ll be transparent about them.
These moments don’t feel dramatic at first.
They only feel obvious once they’re already behind us.

🚨 SILVER IS TRYING TO TELL YOU SOMETHING — AND PEOPLE ARE IGNORING IT

Let me put this in a very human way.
If you think silver is $100/oz, you’re not looking at the real market.
You’re looking at a screen price.

Out in the real world, it’s a different story:
🇺🇸 COMEX: ~$100 (paper)
🇯🇵 Japan: ~$145 (physical)
🇨🇳 China: ~$140 (physical)
🇦🇪 UAE: ~$165 (physical)

That gap isn’t small.
That’s a system screaming under pressure.

Here’s what bothers me:
In a normal market, this kind of spread wouldn’t last.
Arbitrage would crush it in days.
But it hasn’t.
And that tells me one thing:
the paper market can’t let go.

Why?
Because banks are sitting on huge short positions in silver.
If silver trades where physical actually clears — say $130–150 —
the losses aren’t theoretical anymore.

They’re real.
They hit balance sheets.
They hit capital ratios.
At that point, it’s not about trading.
It’s about staying alive.
So what’s happening now feels like this:
People quietly pull real silver out of vaults.
Banks quietly print more paper contracts.
Real value gets tucked away.
Promises multiply.

That works… until it doesn’t.
When inventories get thin enough,
delivery stress spikes.
And then the paper price stops mattering.
I’m not saying this explodes tomorrow.

I’m saying the tension is building.
Silver isn’t calm.
It’s restrained.
And when restraint breaks,
it doesn’t break gently.
Most people won’t see it coming — because they’re staring at the wrong price.

🚨 COPPER IS BEING MISREAD AND THAT’S WHY IT MATTERS

Let me strip the hype out and say this plainly.
Copper doesn’t look exciting right now.
That’s exactly why it’s being ignored.
But if copper ever trades at its real economic value, it won’t feel like a clever trade in hindsight it’ll feel obvious.
Bernstein expects a structural shortage starting around 2027,
and getting tighter into 2050.

That’s not a cycle you wait out.
That’s a supply problem that takes decades to fix.

Why this feels different:
There’s no quick supply response.
New copper mines take 17–20 years to permit and build.
Even a major discovery today won’t help until the 2040s.

Meanwhile:
Ore grades keep falling
The easy copper is gone
We’re digging more to get less
S&P Global estimates a ~10 million tonne annual deficit by 2040 roughly a quarter of global demand that simply isn’t there.

Demand isn’t just growing it’s changing:
This isn’t only about EVs.
AI needs power.
Power needs copper.
Data centers are scaling fast, grids need upgrading,
and none of that works without a lot of copper wiring and cooling.
This demand isn’t optional.
It’s built into how the system is evolving.
Add the energy transition:
EVs use about 3× more copper than gas cars.
Wind and solar soak it up.
Entire grids are being rebuilt at the same time.
We’re trying to remake global infrastructure
with copper that hasn’t been mined yet.

What that usually leads to:
When supply can’t respond and demand won’t slow,
price stops being about efficiency.
Copper turns strategic.
Companies don’t argue over price they secure supply just to keep operating.
That’s when sentiment flips. Right now, copper feels quiet. Unloved. Almost boring.
Historically, that’s how big repricings begin not with excitement, but with neglect. You don’t have to chase it. Just don’t dismiss it.
Those are usually the most expensive words later on.

🚨 SILVER MONTHLY RSI AT 94 THIS IS WHERE THINGS USUALLY GET UNCOMFORTABLE

Silver’s monthly RSI is sitting at 94.
That’s not a normal momentum reading.
That’s an extreme.

If you look back at history, every time silver’s monthly RSI moved:
above 80, and especially
above 90
the outcome was broadly the same.
What the chart tends to do at these levels:
You get a sharp, almost vertical rise followed by a fast and deep decline.

The classic “Eiffel Tower” structure.
Not a gentle pullback.
Not a long consolidation.
A quick reset.

Why the macro backdrop matters here:
This kind of technical extreme is far more fragile when:
economic momentum is slowing credit conditions are tightening liquidity is not expanding
That’s the environment we’re moving into now.
In slowdowns, markets don’t reward excess for long.
They reprice it.
High-beta assets feel that first.

What this means in practice:
Silver can still move higher in the short term.
Blow-off phases often do.
But at levels like this, buying isn’t about value anymore.
It’s about momentum and fear.
That’s when risk quietly shifts from missing upside
to being caught in the reversal.
So yes, silver looks strong on the surface.

But when indicators stretch this far, history suggests caution, not confidence.
Charts don’t care about narratives.
They care about exhaustion.
And exhaustion usually shows up before most people are ready to see it.

🚨 SILVER IS IN A BUBBLE AND THAT’S WHERE PEOPLE GET CONFUSED

Let me say this in a simple, honest way.
Silver could still run to $150 first.
Before we get a scary but likely short pullback that resets sentiment
and sets up the next leg higher.

But let’s be clear:
👉 This is a bubble.
Silver doesn’t trade 200%+ above its 200-week moving average
in a normal bull market.
That’s already extreme.
And in real bubbles, price usually stretches even further 400% or even 500% above the 200 WMA
right before the final top.
That’s where the biggest gains happen.
And that’s also where the biggest mistakes are made.

Here’s the opportunity and the danger:
Yes, there’s still a chance to make very big money
as this phase plays out.
But if you buy the story and forget risk,
the same bubble that makes people rich
will take everything back.
That’s how bubbles always end.
We’ve seen this many times in the last 20 years.
Most people don’t fail because they’re early.

They fail because they fall in love
and don’t know when to step away.
Silver can still go much higher.
Just don’t confuse that
with it being “safe.”
The move rewards calm thinking not belief.

🚨 THIS RATIO IS STARTING TO MAKE PEOPLE UNCOMFORTABLE AND THAT’S USUALLY A TELL

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) is dropping quickly
and looks on track to test a horizontal support level that’s held for 43 years.

Most people aren’t watching it yet.
That’s usually when it matters most.
And honestly, I don’t think it stops there.

Just to ground this in simple math:
If gold moves toward $6,000 and the GSR compresses to around 32 which isn’t extreme by historical standards you’re looking at silver near $190-200. That’s not a wild call.

That’s just what the ratio implies.
Here’s why this feels important.
Gold usually moves first when fear shows up.
Silver moves when people stop hiding
and start positioning.

When the ratio compresses,
it’s a sign capital is shifting from safety
toward leverage.
That’s when silver stops behaving like a quiet metal
and starts behaving like something people wish
they’d paid attention to earlier.
Most of the crowd won’t notice the ratio.

They’ll notice the price later.
Ratios don’t make noise.
They just quietly point to what’s coming.
Have a good start to the week.
This is one of those things worth keeping an eye on
before it becomes obvious.

🚨 THIS FEELS UNCOMFORTABLY FAMILIAR AND THAT’S THE PROBLEM

Let me say this simply.
This doesn’t feel like politics anymore.
It feels like the moment right before something slips.
The U.S. government is days from a shutdown.
Leadership sounds reactive.
Confidence feels forced.
That’s usually when systems crack.

The signs aren’t loud they’re subtle:
Emergency repo usage is rising
Lenders are pulling back.
That’s exactly how 2008 started.
Stocks vs. gold just broke a key level
The last time this happened was right before things unraveled.
Unemployment momentum is creeping up
Not enough to panic just enough to matter.

Under the surface, pressure is building:
Commercial real estate debt is coming due
And a lot of it can’t be refinanced cleanly.
Consumers are falling behind
Credit card and auto loan stress is rising.
Mid-sized businesses are struggling
And they don’t get bailouts.

This isn’t collapse yet.
It’s the quiet part before.
I’m not here to scare you.
I’m here to be honest.
Moments like this don’t feel dramatic in real time.
They feel uneasy.
And unease is usually the first real signal
that something is changing.

🚨 THE FED IS HINTING AT SOMETHING BIG - AND IT’S MAKING PEOPLE UNCOMFORTABLE

Let me put this in a simple, human way.

Markets are starting to whisper a word they haven’t used in a long time:
Plaza. Back in 1985, the dollar had become too strong.
U.S. exports were suffering.
Factories were losing business.
Trade tensions were boiling over.
So the U.S. and its allies stepped in together and did the unthinkable.
They intentionally weakened the dollar.
That agreement the Plaza Accord changed everything.

Over the next few years:
the dollar fell nearly 50%
the yen doubled
asset prices reset globally
Markets didn’t resist.
They followed.
Now fast forward to today.
The U.S. still runs big trade deficits.
Currency imbalances are stretched.
Japan is under pressure again.
And the yen is extremely weak.
Last week, something quiet happened.
The New York Fed checked USD/JPY rates a routine move on the surface, but historically the step taken before intervention.
No announcement.
No press conference.
But markets noticed anyway.

Why this matters:
If the U.S. decides the dollar is too strong again,
the response won’t be loud.
It will be coordinated.
And if that starts, everything priced in dollars feels it.
Gold. Commodities. Global assets.
Not overnight chaos a steady shift that only makes sense in hindsight. History doesn’t repeat perfectly. But when it starts to rhyme like this, markets tend to move first…and explanations come later.

Wow!!! Thanks a ton @Binance Square Official & the Binance Square team for the shoutout and the 1BNB surprise! 🎉 🎉

Means a lot - keeps pushing me to post better content.
Appreciate the support, let's keep building! 💪

🚨 THIS DOESN’T FEEL LIKE A NORMAL CRISIS IT FEELS LIKE CONFIDENCE IS BREAKING

Let me slow this down, because this is important.
I’m not trying to scare you.
But I also can’t pretend this is “just another cycle.”
Gold just hit a new all-time high near $5,097.
Silver ran to $109.81, including a 7% move in a single day.
That kind of move doesn’t come from excitement.
It comes from unease.

What this price action actually feels like:
When gold and silver move this hard,
people aren’t buying because they want upside.
They’re buying because they don’t feel safe holding other things.
That’s what de-risking looks like in real time.
Silver especially tells the story it doesn’t usually move first unless stress is real and spreading.

The physical market is where the fear shows up:
In China, one ounce of physical silver costs over $134.
In Japan, it’s closer to $139.
That gap between paper and physical
isn’t about premiums or logistics anymore.
It’s about trust.
People want something they can hold,
not something that depends on a promise.
Why this gets messy before it gets clearer:
When markets start to wobble,
big players don’t rotate neatly.
They’re forced to sell what they can
to cover losses where they must.

That creates:
sudden drops forced liquidations sharp, confusing moves It often looks like chaos right before the next leg higher.
And here’s the part that feels like a trap:
The Fed doesn’t have an easy choice.

If rates get cut to support stocks,
the dollar weakens and gold moves even higher.
If rates stay high to defend the dollar,
equities and real estate take the hit.
Either way, something breaks.
There isn’t a comfortable path out of this.
This doesn’t feel like “just a recession” anymore.
It feels like a moment where confidence in the system is being tested.

Weeks like this don’t feel dramatic at first.
They feel confusing, tense, and uncomfortable.
They only get labeled after the fact.
I’ll keep sharing what I see as this unfolds not to create fear, but to stay honest about the environment we’re in.

🚨The U.S. Government Shutdown Is Becoming the Base Case

This is bigger than it looks.
The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is rising fast,
and almost no one is paying attention.
Prediction markets now treat a shutdown by January 31
as the base case, not a tail risk.
Budget negotiations are stalled.

DHS funding is stuck.
Deadlines don’t negotiate.
Here’s why this matters:
This is economic risk the market has not priced yet.

Right now:
Prediction markets are flashing red
Traditional markets remain calm
That gap doesn’t persist.
It never does.
Either expectations come down…
or prices adjust.
What’s important is the timing.
When political risk moves from “headline noise” to hard deadlines, markets don’t ease into it.

They reprice suddenly.
The warning signs are already visible.
They’re just not loud yet.
And in markets, the quiet warnings are usually the ones that matter most.

🚨 BITCOIN ISN’T BROKEN - IT’S JUST BEING HELD STILL

If you’ve been staring at the chart wondering why Bitcoin feels stuck between $85k and $95k,
while everything else seems to be moving…
You’re not imagining it.
And it’s not because buyers disappeared.
It’s because Bitcoin is being held in place.
And that hold has an expiration date — 4 days.

What’s really going on (no jargon first):
Bitcoin is caught in a huge options setup.
There’s a massive concentration of options expiring on January 30 far bigger than any other date.
Because of that, market makers are forced into a very specific behavior.

When price starts to rise, they sell.
When price starts to fall, they buy.
Not out of opinion.
Out of obligation.
That’s why:
rallies feel like they hit a wall
dips get bought instantly
It’s not weak demand.
It’s mechanical pressure.

Why this matters so much:
As we get closer to January 30, that pressure slowly fades.
When those options finally expire,
the hedges disappear.
And suddenly, there’s nothing holding price in that tight range.
We go from a market that’s pinned
to one that’s free to move.
And when that kind of restraint is removed,
price usually doesn’t drift.

It moves fast.
I’m not telling you which direction yet.
I’m telling you when the rules change.
I’ve seen this pattern many times over the years.
Markets can feel boring…right up until the moment they aren’t.
I’ll share an update once the expiration passes.
Just don’t confuse stillness with weakness.

❗️ Whales Are Loading ETH — Are You Watching? 🐳

🔴 $ETH Another 20,000 ETH ($56.13M) just moved into whale wallets via OTC

🔴 That’s 70,013 ETH ($203.6M) accumulated in only 5 days

🚨 THE CROWD ABANDONED BITCOIN — AND THAT’S THE SIGNAL

Nobody is searching for Bitcoin.
Nobody is asking about crypto.
No hype.
No excitement.
No fear of missing out.

Instead, everyone is suddenly an expert on Gold and Silver.
That tells me everything.
The capital didn’t disappear.
It rotated.
Out of risk.
Into safety.

And here’s the uncomfortable part most people don’t want to admit:
That’s not how bull markets end.
That’s how late fear phases end.
When everyone agrees on the “safe trade,”
and the old trade gets written off…
That’s usually where reversals are born.
Quietly.

Against consensus.
And only obvious after price moves.
Markets don’t reward attention.
They reward neglect.

🚨 THE U.S. MAY “SAVE” JAPAN BY WEAKENING THE DOLLAR

Let me put this simply.
Ignore the tariff noise.
Ignore gold headlines.
For the first time in years, the NY Fed is hinting at intervention —
and it’s about the Japanese Yen.

That alone should get your attention.

Why this feels off:
Japan’s bond yields are rising.
Normally, the Yen should rise too.
Instead, it’s falling.

That’s not a normal market.
That’s a sign something’s out of balance.
When signals break like this, central banks step in.

What intervention likely looks like:
The U.S. sells dollars.
The U.S. buys yen.
No drama.
Just action.
The result?

A weaker dollar — by design.

Who benefits:
The U.S. government (debt gets easier to manage)
U.S. exporters (more competitive globally)
Asset holders (stocks and metals usually rise when USD falls)
Sounds bullish.

The catch:
Stocks are already at all-time highs.
Gold is already at all-time highs.
Everyone’s already leaning the same way.
That makes this fragile.

This doesn’t feel like a clean risk-on move.
It feels like policy holding the market together.
I’ll keep watching and sharing what I see.
When things turn,
they usually do so quietly first.

🚨 THE MARKET IS LOSING ITS SAFETY NET — AND YOU CAN FEEL IT

Let me say this in a more grounded way.
Next week doesn’t feel like “just another volatile week.”
It feels like one of those moments where the mood quietly shifts —
and only makes sense after the fact.
From here, there isn’t a clean bullish story.
There are only different ways risk can be repriced.
If you’re holding stocks, crypto, or anything high-beta,
it’s worth asking what kind of market we’re actually in.

Start with where we already are:
The Buffett Indicator is around 224%, the highest ever.
Higher than the Dot-Com bubble. Higher than 2021.
History says this usually ends with mean reversion, not new highs.
The Shiller CAPE is near 40.
We’ve only seen that once in 150 years — right before 2000.
This doesn’t mean a crash tomorrow.
It means the margin for error is thin.

Now add what’s coming:
About 26% of US federal debt rolls over in the next year.
Refinancing at much higher rates quietly tightens liquidity.
Trade tensions are back on the table, with tariff risks aimed at major European economies.
That’s not noise — it adds friction where the system is already stressed.
On top of that, there’s policy uncertainty around whether those tariffs even hold up legally.
Markets don’t like not knowing the rules.

This is why behavior has changed:
Big money isn’t chasing upside.
It’s reducing exposure.
Liquidity is being kept close.
Metals are being accumulated.
Risk assets feel heavy even on green days.
That’s not fear.
That’s caution earned from experience.

I know this is uncomfortable, especially if you’re newer.
But markets don’t usually break when everyone is scared.
They break when people feel safe because nothing bad has happened yet.

Wealth isn’t built at extremes.
It’s built by staying solvent, patient, and clear-headed
when the environment quietly shifts.
This week isn’t about panic.
It’s about paying attention to the tone of the market before the volume gets louder.