dollar

#dollar

The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.

Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously.

Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time.

History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does.

We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years.

That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped.

If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out :

- The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen.
- That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity.
- And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge.

Now look at crypto.

Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs.

But there is a catch.

There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans.

We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value.

- So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto.

- But dollar weakness creates long term upside.

Now, why is this bullish for crypto ?

Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement.

If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.

This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.
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#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat
#Japan

美國美元剛剛創下自2025年12月中旬以來最大的單日跌幅，下降約0.7-0.8%。在特朗普對歐洲發出對格林蘭的威脅後，市場大幅動盪。
投資者驚慌失措，快速拋售美國股票和國債，而避險貨幣則大幅上漲。交易員稱這是一個警示——政治戲劇能夠嚴重搖動市場，即使沒有任何重大經濟新聞。
分析師表示，如果與歐洲的緊張局勢繼續拖延，美元可能會持續承壓，影響全球貿易、進口成本，甚至美國的借貸利率。一些對沖基金已經開始調整持倉，以防止更大的波動。

$ENSO 👀紐約聯邦儲備銀行已經進行了利率檢查，這正是進行真實貨幣干預之前的確切步驟。這意味着美國正在準備出售美元併購買日元。

這很少見。從歷史上看，當這種情況發生時，全球市場會激增。

日本正面臨巨大的壓力。日元已經疲軟多年，日本債券收益率處於數十年來的高位，而日本銀行仍然保持鷹派。這一切不僅給日本帶來了壓力，也給全球市場帶來了壓力。這就是爲什麼中央銀行現在開始認真對待這種情況。