đ Fed Watch â January 26, 2026 (Market Snapshot)
Rates: Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in the Federal Reserve holding its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50 %â3.75 % at the upcoming January FOMC meeting, with about a 95â97 % probability of no change this week.
Policy outlook: After three consecutive cuts in late 2025, the narrative has shifted to âhigher for longer.â Sticky inflation data and resilient employment are key reasons the Fed isnât expected to cut again immediately.
Market reaction: Ahead of the decision, the U.S. dollar weakened broadly, while gold rallied and investors repositioned for risk assetsâsigns that uncertainty over the Fedâs tone is influencing markets.
Focus: Traders and analysts will watch Chair Jerome Powellâs press conference closely for forward guidance on future rate moves and the evolving economic picture.
Bottom line: The Fed is likely to pause this week, maintaining a cautious approach as it balances inflation and growth signals in early 2026.
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