🚹 $BTC : The Market Is Underpricing 2026 Rate Cuts 🚹

The CME FedWatch curve is whispering something most traders aren’t listening to.

While consensus is anchored to a handful of cuts in 2026, the probability distribution is quietly shifting — deeper and more frequent rate cuts are starting to creep into the tail. This isn’t fear-driven pricing. It’s macro math.

Here’s the key nuance:

‱ Inflation is clearly cooling

‱ Labor markets remain resilient

That’s the Fed’s rare sweet spot. The dual mandate isn’t eternal hawkishness — it’s price stability + maximum employment. When inflation eases without labor cracking, rate cuts don’t threaten stability — they support growth.

This is where markets often get trapped.

Positioning assumes limited easing, while the macro backdrop is quietly inviting more.

If the Fed pivots faster than expected, risk assets won’t wait for confirmation.

They’ll move on anticipation — and late traders will chase.

The real question isn’t if cuts come.

It’s whether markets are prepared for how many.

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