$DUSK $ZKC $AUCTION
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đš BREAKING: The US government will shut down in 6 days.
Last time this happened, gold and silver made new ATHs.
But if youâre holding stocks or risk assets, be extremely careful.
Weâre heading into a total data blackout.
Here are the 4 real threats đ
1ïžâŁ Data blackout
No CPI. No jobs reports.
The Fed and risk models go blind.
VIX must reprice higher to reflect uncertainty.
2ïžâŁ Collateral shock
With existing credit warnings, a shutdown could trigger a downgrade.
Repo margins spike.
Liquidity gets destroyed.
3ïžâŁ Liquidity freeze
The RRP buffer is dry.
There is no safety net left.
If dealers start hoarding cash, funding markets seize up.
4ïžâŁ Recession trigger
Each week of shutdown cuts ~0.2% of GDP.
Thatâs enough to tip a stalling economy into a technical recession.
đ During the last major funding stress (March 2020),
the SOFRâIORB spread blew out.
đ Watch the SOFRâIORB spread.
If it starts gapping, it means private markets are starving for cash while the Fed sits on a pile of it â exactly what we saw in 2020.
This sounds scary â but donât worry.
#GoldSilverAtRecordHighs #USIranMarketImpact
