A FED WEEK = MARKET NERVES ON EDGE

U.S. inflation has cooled to ~2%

But Powell has stayed cautious, sticking to the 25 bps cut narrative for the last 3 months

So the big question

Does the FED cut rates this week?

Base case:

YES, a cut is likely but 25 bps, not 50.

Why not 50?

The FED wants to avoid shocking markets

Powell prefers gradual easing, not panic cuts

Jobs, growth, and financial conditions are soft not broken

A 50 bps cut would signal stress under the surface something Powell clearly wants to avoid unless forced.

Translation for markets

25 bps = "controlled slowdown"

50 bps = "something's wrong"

Right now, the FED wants confidence, not chaos.

Expect caution.

And remember - Powell talks slow, markets

move fast

#Fed #Rates #Inflation #Macro #Markets #usd #riskassets $ARB

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