⚠️⚠️🚨 Important Market News – Tariff Decision & Crypto Impact (Jan 9)⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Alongside US NFP report, one of the most important macro events for markets is the US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs.
📰 What’s Happening?
The US Supreme Court is set to announce its final ruling on whether the global import tariffs imposed under President Trump are legal or illegal. This decision could trigger significant moves across USD, equities, commodities, and crypto.
🔍 Why This Matters
If the tariffs are ruled illegal, the US government may be forced to refund $100–600B in collected tariffs. This would:
Increase the fiscal deficit
Reduce inflation pressure
Open the door for faster Fed rate cuts
Markets are currently pricing ~78% probability that tariffs will be ruled illegal.
🧭 Two Possible Outcomes & Crypto Impact
🟢 Scenario 1: Tariffs Ruled Illegal (Market-Expected)
USD → Weakens due to fiscal shock & rate-cut expectations
Inflation risk → Decreases
Crypto → Short-term volatile, but medium-term bullish as liquidity conditions improve
Global stocks (Ex-US) → Bullish (export relief for Europe, Canada, India)
📌 Initial risk-off volatility is possible before crypto benefits from a weaker USD.
🔴 Scenario 2: Tariffs Upheld (Market Shock)
USD → Sharp strength (surprise outcome)
Risk assets → Sell-off
Crypto → Bearish short-term, as capital moves into USD
This could be a classic “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact” reversal.
🎯 Key Takeaway
tariff ruling is a high-impact macro event that can amplify volatility already expected from NFP.
Traders should stay cautious, manage risk tightly, and avoid over-leverage during news hours.
Macro decisions move liquidity — and liquidity moves crypto.
