Federal Reserve Rate Cut Probabilities Analyzed for 2026

According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all by the end of 2026 stands at 5.4%. According to BlockBeats, there is a 21.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, a 32.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, a 25.9% likelihood of a 75 basis point cut, an 11.7% probability of a 100 basis point decrease, and a 3% chance of a 125 basis point reduction.

Additionally, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March is 23.2%.