TVBee
EXCEL/Python数据分析|区块链项目/Defi模型研究|16年硕士财经论文|伪程序员|无收费群|比特币死忠粉|币圈趋势交易|推特：@blockTVBee
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
6.7 Years
186 Following
8.1K+ Followers
6.5K+ Liked
720 Shared
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Videos
Market Value Revelation: Two Projects, Three Dimensions, A Game About Repurchase
At the beginning of January, the co-founder of JUP tweeted, triggering a discussion in the market about token repurchase.
Since January 2025, the project party began to repurchase #JUP, but still failed to stop the price from falling.
In contrast, the repurchase of #DBR started from June 25 and can have an immediate effect.
On one hand, the price of the token rises after the repurchase.
On the other hand, it is very obvious that a watershed has formed; before the repurchase, DBR was weaker than JUP, while after the repurchase, DBR was stronger than JUP.
Brother Bee compares and analyzes the token repurchase game from three dimensions.
┈┈➤Timing
Since January 2025, the project party began to repurchase #JUP, but still failed to stop the price from falling.
In contrast, the repurchase of #DBR started from June 25 and can have an immediate effect.
On one hand, the price of the token rises after the repurchase.
On the other hand, it is very obvious that a watershed has formed; before the repurchase, DBR was weaker than JUP, while after the repurchase, DBR was stronger than JUP.
Brother Bee compares and analyzes the token repurchase game from three dimensions.
┈┈➤Timing
Some say Powell is about interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction.
But Powell is about infrequent rate cuts + mild balance sheet reduction.
Waller is expected to have a greater degree of rate cuts to align with Trump’s interest rate cuts on the Federal Reserve's yield.
As for the extent of balance sheet reduction, it cannot be determined at this time. It is speculated that Waller will be about frequent rate cuts + mild to moderate balance sheet reduction.
In any case, Waller's rate cuts cater to Trump, and Waller's balance sheet reduction aligns with the Federal Reserve. Let's assume he takes office first... this is the difference between understanding political tactics and academic economics.😂
But Powell is about infrequent rate cuts + mild balance sheet reduction.
Waller is expected to have a greater degree of rate cuts to align with Trump’s interest rate cuts on the Federal Reserve's yield.
As for the extent of balance sheet reduction, it cannot be determined at this time. It is speculated that Waller will be about frequent rate cuts + mild to moderate balance sheet reduction.
In any case, Waller's rate cuts cater to Trump, and Waller's balance sheet reduction aligns with the Federal Reserve. Let's assume he takes office first... this is the difference between understanding political tactics and academic economics.😂
TVBee
·
--
Interpreting the Split Policy of the Fed Chair's 'Interest Rate Cuts + Quantitative Tightening' in Parallel
Kevin Warsh's policy cannot simply be characterized as hawkish or dovish. Many experts mention that Kevin Warsh's monetary policy is 'interest rate cuts + quantitative tightening' in parallel.
I believe this policy is a clever move.
┈┈➤Relieve the financing pressure of US Treasury bonds while controlling inflation
First, lowering interest rates will directly affect short-term US Treasury rates, reducing the financing costs of US Treasury bonds, which can be said to alleviate Trump's urgent concerns.
Second, through quantitative tightening, a real-time and moderate reduction in the supply of US dollars can control inflation. Trump actually does not want to see inflation caused by interest rate cuts.
I believe this policy is a clever move.
┈┈➤Relieve the financing pressure of US Treasury bonds while controlling inflation
First, lowering interest rates will directly affect short-term US Treasury rates, reducing the financing costs of US Treasury bonds, which can be said to alleviate Trump's urgent concerns.
Second, through quantitative tightening, a real-time and moderate reduction in the supply of US dollars can control inflation. Trump actually does not want to see inflation caused by interest rate cuts.
Your elementary school math class representative is online, future finance (WLFI) Binance holding interest, calculating for you one by one!
Last week, some friends misled with articles estimating returns, directly calculating all USD1 in Binance.
In fact, the USD1 held in the market maker's account does not participate in the activity.
Those who have read Bee Brother's previous article on estimated returns should not have missed this very warm activity in the bear market.
┈┈➤Return calculation
Bee Brother deposited 16300 USD1, earning 334.81 WLFI, and held it for 6 days.
◆This week's return = 334.81*0.129/16300=0.265%
◆Annualized return = 334.81*0.129/16300/6*365=16.12%.
◆Estimated annualized return = 334.81*0.129/16300*4=1.06%
In fact, the USD1 held in the market maker's account does not participate in the activity.
Those who have read Bee Brother's previous article on estimated returns should not have missed this very warm activity in the bear market.
┈┈➤Return calculation
Bee Brother deposited 16300 USD1, earning 334.81 WLFI, and held it for 6 days.
◆This week's return = 334.81*0.129/16300=0.265%
◆Annualized return = 334.81*0.129/16300/6*365=16.12%.
◆Estimated annualized return = 334.81*0.129/16300*4=1.06%
The market likes to find reasons for the decline
◆ The Bitcoin may just be a line drawn by the big players at the end of the month,
◆ The decline in US stocks may be due to the Federal Reserve being more hawkish than expected in the future, which is related to Wat.
◆ The decline in gold is due to weakened inflation expectations, which is also related to Wat. Another direct reason is that exchanges have increased the margin ratio for gold and silver.
Another common influence is that the US government has shut down again. The differences and contradictions between the two parties are quite large.
In fact, all these are surface-level reasons, direct causes; the fundamental reason lies elsewhere:
◆ The fundamental reason for Bitcoin's decline is insufficient liquidity + expectations of a four-year cycle; 2026 is expected to be a bear market, and the decline from 2018 to 2022 to 2026 is actually a speed-up in the rate of decline,
◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in US stocks is also liquidity; the year-on-year growth rate of US M2 is declining, and there must be money to buy for prices to rise, if it can't rise, it will fall.
◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in gold is that its speculative nature is too strong, causing it to deviate from its property of preserving and increasing value in the short term. Of course, there may also be liquidity factors at play.
◆ The Bitcoin may just be a line drawn by the big players at the end of the month,
◆ The decline in US stocks may be due to the Federal Reserve being more hawkish than expected in the future, which is related to Wat.
◆ The decline in gold is due to weakened inflation expectations, which is also related to Wat. Another direct reason is that exchanges have increased the margin ratio for gold and silver.
Another common influence is that the US government has shut down again. The differences and contradictions between the two parties are quite large.
In fact, all these are surface-level reasons, direct causes; the fundamental reason lies elsewhere:
◆ The fundamental reason for Bitcoin's decline is insufficient liquidity + expectations of a four-year cycle; 2026 is expected to be a bear market, and the decline from 2018 to 2022 to 2026 is actually a speed-up in the rate of decline,
◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in US stocks is also liquidity; the year-on-year growth rate of US M2 is declining, and there must be money to buy for prices to rise, if it can't rise, it will fall.
◆ The fundamental reason for the decline in gold is that its speculative nature is too strong, causing it to deviate from its property of preserving and increasing value in the short term. Of course, there may also be liquidity factors at play.
Don't cry, brothers!
We can still cut losses, go short, and trade in waves...
The buyers of the ETF still had an 84000 big pie at Friday's close, but when the market opened on Monday, it turned into 79000 78000... Watching the six weeks of decline, there was nothing they could do, and they are worse off.
Learn to self-comfort, brothers
🤣
We can still cut losses, go short, and trade in waves...
The buyers of the ETF still had an 84000 big pie at Friday's close, but when the market opened on Monday, it turned into 79000 78000... Watching the six weeks of decline, there was nothing they could do, and they are worse off.
Learn to self-comfort, brothers
🤣
It's only been a month since 2025, why does it feel like we've exploded all the mines from past bear markets?
The leverage of market makers was cleared in 1011, similar to the Luna crash in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows, which were essentially caused by insufficient liquidity leading to deleveraging.
The battle between exchanges is a bit like the hash war during the BCH fork at the end of 2018.
The BTC monthly RSI has dropped to 48 (for now, with 5 hours until close), which is already comparable to October 2014, October-November 2018, and May 2022.
Seeking a sword by carving a boat is unscientific, but due to the consensus of the four-year cycle, the market's expectations for bull and bear markets lead to both bull tops and bear bottoms occurring in advance, including various crisis events possibly being the same.
The leverage of market makers was cleared in 1011, similar to the Luna crash in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows, which were essentially caused by insufficient liquidity leading to deleveraging.
The battle between exchanges is a bit like the hash war during the BCH fork at the end of 2018.
The BTC monthly RSI has dropped to 48 (for now, with 5 hours until close), which is already comparable to October 2014, October-November 2018, and May 2022.
Seeking a sword by carving a boat is unscientific, but due to the consensus of the four-year cycle, the market's expectations for bull and bear markets lead to both bull tops and bear bottoms occurring in advance, including various crisis events possibly being the same.
Conscience is something that you can hardly exchange for money.
However, if you throw away your conscience, you might actually make quite a bit of money.
Therefore, the value of conscience is actually negative...
Laugh at the poor but not at the prostitutes; the true way of the world is full of hardships.
However, if you throw away your conscience, you might actually make quite a bit of money.
Therefore, the value of conscience is actually negative...
Laugh at the poor but not at the prostitutes; the true way of the world is full of hardships.
Interpreting the Split Policy of the Fed Chair's 'Interest Rate Cuts + Quantitative Tightening' in Parallel
Kevin Warsh's policy cannot simply be characterized as hawkish or dovish. Many experts mention that Kevin Warsh's monetary policy is 'interest rate cuts + quantitative tightening' in parallel.
I believe this policy is a clever move.
┈┈➤Relieve the financing pressure of US Treasury bonds while controlling inflation
First, lowering interest rates will directly affect short-term US Treasury rates, reducing the financing costs of US Treasury bonds, which can be said to alleviate Trump's urgent concerns.
Second, through quantitative tightening, a real-time and moderate reduction in the supply of US dollars can control inflation. Trump actually does not want to see inflation caused by interest rate cuts.
I believe this policy is a clever move.
┈┈➤Relieve the financing pressure of US Treasury bonds while controlling inflation
First, lowering interest rates will directly affect short-term US Treasury rates, reducing the financing costs of US Treasury bonds, which can be said to alleviate Trump's urgent concerns.
Second, through quantitative tightening, a real-time and moderate reduction in the supply of US dollars can control inflation. Trump actually does not want to see inflation caused by interest rate cuts.
The contradiction of rising gold lies in:
The initial buying was for hedging, while the subsequent buying was for making profits.
At this point, gold has already transformed from a safe-haven asset into a speculative asset.
Once gold becomes a speculative asset, it will naturally experience fluctuations like all other speculative assets.
However, many people still believe that gold is safe, and they are becoming bolder...
The initial buying was for hedging, while the subsequent buying was for making profits.
At this point, gold has already transformed from a safe-haven asset into a speculative asset.
Once gold becomes a speculative asset, it will naturally experience fluctuations like all other speculative assets.
However, many people still believe that gold is safe, and they are becoming bolder...
TVBee
·
--
Pay attention to the risk of gold pullbacks!
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
Why are there so many reasons for the decline?! It's actually just a lack of liquidity!
In March 2020, BTC's market capitalization accounted for only 0.91% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for only 1.4% of the US M2.
In May 2021, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 3.92% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 10.38% of the US M2.
By October 2025, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 10.16% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 17.27% of the US M2.
At this time, cryptocurrency is extremely dependent on and sensitive to macro liquidity! So when Trump mentioned a 100% tariff on October 10, it caused a collapse in crypto.
Even the strong US stock market, in October 2025, the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to M2 reached a peak, close to the peak in 2000, and there was a decline in November.
Since the annual growth rate of M2 is the market's intuitive perception of liquidity, the correlation between cryptocurrency and the annual growth rate of M2 is stronger.
Moreover, the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is generally at a historically low level, and in October 2025, the growth rate of the annual growth rate of M2 is close to zero, with a decrease starting in November.
In March 2020, BTC's market capitalization accounted for only 0.91% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for only 1.4% of the US M2.
In May 2021, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 3.92% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 10.38% of the US M2.
By October 2025, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 10.16% of the US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 17.27% of the US M2.
At this time, cryptocurrency is extremely dependent on and sensitive to macro liquidity! So when Trump mentioned a 100% tariff on October 10, it caused a collapse in crypto.
Even the strong US stock market, in October 2025, the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to M2 reached a peak, close to the peak in 2000, and there was a decline in November.
Since the annual growth rate of M2 is the market's intuitive perception of liquidity, the correlation between cryptocurrency and the annual growth rate of M2 is stronger.
Moreover, the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is generally at a historically low level, and in October 2025, the growth rate of the annual growth rate of M2 is close to zero, with a decrease starting in November.
Betting on $ZAMA to rise above 0.1 (FDV 1B), currently down 73%. Adding another 15 dollars for a small bet of 0.08 for fun.
ZAMA is estimated to exceed 1B during the B round of financing. Not betting on anything else, just betting on the project and the VC wanting to save face!
ZAMA is estimated to exceed 1B during the B round of financing. Not betting on anything else, just betting on the project and the VC wanting to save face!
TVBee
·
--
Participants in the ZAMA auction, don't worry just yet, please look at the data:
On September 2, 2025, at 22:00, the closing price of the SOMI contract was 0.4610, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.66, with the highest price on September 7 being 1.9.
On September 22, 2025, at 18:00, the closing price of the 0G contract was 3.2601, and the high point of the day after going spot was 7.26.
On January 6, 2026, at 22:00, the closing price of the BREV contract was 0.3686, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.45, with the highest price on January 7 being 0.5464.
After going spot, the high points usually exceed the contract price.
On September 2, 2025, at 22:00, the closing price of the SOMI contract was 0.4610, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.66, with the highest price on September 7 being 1.9.
On September 22, 2025, at 18:00, the closing price of the 0G contract was 3.2601, and the high point of the day after going spot was 7.26.
On January 6, 2026, at 22:00, the closing price of the BREV contract was 0.3686, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.45, with the highest price on January 7 being 0.5464.
After going spot, the high points usually exceed the contract price.
Participants in the ZAMA auction, don't worry just yet, please look at the data:
On September 2, 2025, at 22:00, the closing price of the SOMI contract was 0.4610, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.66, with the highest price on September 7 being 1.9.
On September 22, 2025, at 18:00, the closing price of the 0G contract was 3.2601, and the high point of the day after going spot was 7.26.
On January 6, 2026, at 22:00, the closing price of the BREV contract was 0.3686, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.45, with the highest price on January 7 being 0.5464.
After going spot, the high points usually exceed the contract price.
On September 2, 2025, at 22:00, the closing price of the SOMI contract was 0.4610, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.66, with the highest price on September 7 being 1.9.
On September 22, 2025, at 18:00, the closing price of the 0G contract was 3.2601, and the high point of the day after going spot was 7.26.
On January 6, 2026, at 22:00, the closing price of the BREV contract was 0.3686, and the high point of the day after going spot was 0.45, with the highest price on January 7 being 0.5464.
After going spot, the high points usually exceed the contract price.
The title isn't good; what I mean is not a short-term pullback, but that gold may be close to reaching its peak in the medium term. (Because gold is ultimately upward in the long term, it is referred to as a pullback)
Note that it may be close to the peak, and there might be a bit of upward strength in the short term. Short selling is not recommended.
Note that it may be close to the peak, and there might be a bit of upward strength in the short term. Short selling is not recommended.
TVBee
·
--
Pay attention to the risk of gold pullbacks!
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
Pay attention to the risk of gold pullbacks!
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
┈┈➤Technical indicators show that gold is overbought
Although it is said that the technical aspect of gold as an asset may very well fail.
However, the monthly RSI is 95.6, weekly RSI is 82.8, and daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions, with the monthly level of overbought possibly being the highest in 55 years.
┈┈➤Remarkable historical similarities
First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation bears some resemblance to 1979, before Reagan took office.
Second, during that time, the U.S. economy faced stagflation, and currently, CPI is relatively high.
Third, there was the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution broke out, the pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomatic personnel hostage, demanding the U.S. hand over Pahlavi).
Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the U.S. applying military pressure on Iran, and the possibility of firing cannot be ruled out.
Fourth, many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some similarities to Reagan's when he took office in 1980.
┈┈➤Final thoughts
By comparing technical indicators with historical events, it is possible that as the U.S.-Iran situation escalates, gold will continue to rise.
However, most of Trump's actions this year have been quick decisions, and there is a fear that the U.S.-Iran situation could suddenly reverse (for example, if Iran suddenly gives up resistance). After the conflict subsides, be cautious of a gold pullback.
From January to September 1980, gold rebounded after a decline, and then from September 1980 to June 1982, it fell continuously for nearly two years. It wasn't until 2007-2008 that it returned to the previous high.
In the short term, going short is not recommended, as the U.S. government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31, and the U.S.-Iran situation has not yet calmed down.
But be cautious about chasing the rise! It's not that buying is off the table, but it is advised to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the U.S.-Iran events.
(Note that Chart 1 is on a logarithmic scale, and Chart 2 on a linear scale, where the monthly upward trend of gold somewhat resembles the peak of the bull market.)
Why is such a noble thing as playing MEME called "Hitting the Dog"?
Meat bun hitting the dog - there is no return.
So unlucky.
😂
Meat bun hitting the dog - there is no return.
So unlucky.
😂
This should be good news!
Consumer confidence in the United States fell again in January!
After three consecutive interest rate cuts in Q4 of last year, consumer confidence in January has significantly declined and is clearly below expectations.
It appears that the CPI for January is unlikely to rise, and may even fall. The CPI for January will be released on February 11, and it may be favorable at that time.
Unemployment + the CPI not rebounding after interest rate cuts, and potentially falling, reduces the resistance for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further.
Of course, it is impossible to cut rates in January, and the probability of a rate cut in March or April is low, but there is still some hope.
Consumer confidence in the United States fell again in January!
After three consecutive interest rate cuts in Q4 of last year, consumer confidence in January has significantly declined and is clearly below expectations.
It appears that the CPI for January is unlikely to rise, and may even fall. The CPI for January will be released on February 11, and it may be favorable at that time.
Unemployment + the CPI not rebounding after interest rate cuts, and potentially falling, reduces the resistance for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further.
Of course, it is impossible to cut rates in January, and the probability of a rate cut in March or April is low, but there is still some hope.
The naming expert is back—let's give WLFI a Chinese name
After naming DBR "Northeast Person" and ZAMA "Zama", Brother Bee is now extending his "claws" to Trump!
The name $WLFI is hard to remember in the Chinese-speaking region.
Brother Bee splits these four letters into two parts, taking the first two letters WL from the pinyin of the word "future". WeiLai.
FI remains, just like the "FI" in deFI, gameFi, and rawFI.
Therefore, we can refer to WLFI as "Future FI" or "Future Finance". Very straightforward:
Web3 finance, @worldlibertyfi is a form of finance belonging to the future!
@realDonaldTrump, do you like this Chinese name for WLFI?
Unfortunately, Trump does not have Binance Square!
After naming DBR "Northeast Person" and ZAMA "Zama", Brother Bee is now extending his "claws" to Trump!
The name $WLFI is hard to remember in the Chinese-speaking region.
Brother Bee splits these four letters into two parts, taking the first two letters WL from the pinyin of the word "future". WeiLai.
FI remains, just like the "FI" in deFI, gameFi, and rawFI.
Therefore, we can refer to WLFI as "Future FI" or "Future Finance". Very straightforward:
Web3 finance, @worldlibertyfi is a form of finance belonging to the future!
@realDonaldTrump, do you like this Chinese name for WLFI?
Unfortunately, Trump does not have Binance Square!
Brothers, don't be too greedy!
You can't hope for BTC to be a safe haven like gold on one hand,
and on the other hand hope for a BTC bull market!
As long as the so-called four-year cycle hasn't completely disappeared, the speculative nature of BTC will persist, meaning BTC is a risk asset. What are you even talking about regarding safe havens?
When have you ever heard of terms like bull market or bear market for gold?!
Only when the so-called BTC bull and bear cycles are no longer mentioned can BTC return to its function as digital gold and a safe haven!
You can't hope for BTC to be a safe haven like gold on one hand,
and on the other hand hope for a BTC bull market!
As long as the so-called four-year cycle hasn't completely disappeared, the speculative nature of BTC will persist, meaning BTC is a risk asset. What are you even talking about regarding safe havens?
When have you ever heard of terms like bull market or bear market for gold?!
Only when the so-called BTC bull and bear cycles are no longer mentioned can BTC return to its function as digital gold and a safe haven!
Login to explore more contents