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Event Review 📝

Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has experienced significant volatility. From evening to dawn, multiple factors intertwined to cause a sharp shift in market sentiment. First, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. politics and macro policies has suddenly intensified: news has emerged from the U.S. House of Representatives about advancing government funding and ending parts of the shutdown, with ongoing internal disputes prompting market participants to be more cautious. At the same time, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin's remarks on future adjustments to the L2 scaling roadmap have raised some concerns among investors. High-leverage trading positions and chain liquidations then erupted in the market, triggering panic selling and causing ETH prices to plummet significantly in a short period.

In the past decade, Bitcoin's astonishing rise during the Spring Festival has been one of the most关注的 seasonal patterns in the crypto market. However, with the market itself maturing and the profound evolution of the global macro landscape, this once-celebrated 'red envelope market' is facing unprecedented challenges.

Entering 2026, the trading logic of Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental change: it is no longer a self-indulgent fringe asset, and its price is increasingly shaped by macro forces such as global liquidity, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks. This means that the purely seasonal historical patterns are being overshadowed by grander and more complex narratives.

Bitcoin's price sharply dropped to around $78,000 yesterday, and amidst the spread of market panic, two highly watched long-term indicators simultaneously issued rare signals—Bitcoin may be in a historically undervalued range.

On February 1, 2026, the Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator fell below the 'bottom buying line' of 0.5, the first time in 839 days since October 2023.

During the same period, the Bitcoin rainbow chart also entered the 'special sale' zone, a combination signal that historically usually indicates the emergence of long-term investment opportunities.

1. Key Indicator Fluctuation

The market is undergoing a rapid adjustment. The sharp drop on February 1 caused Bitcoin to temporarily fall below $75,000, marking the lowest level since April 2025.

Since the beginning of 2026, the cryptocurrency market has continued to experience fluctuations and corrections, with Bitcoin dropping from its historical high of $125,000 on October 12, 2025, to around $77,000 on February 3, resulting in a cumulative decline of over 38%.

As prices weaken, major global institutions have voiced their opinions, providing starkly different forecasts for the future market—some institutions warn that a bear market has arrived, and Bitcoin may drop to $58,000;

Other institutions are optimistic about the long-term potential of Ethereum and other coins; while some institutions remain neutral, believing the market is in a transformation and adjustment phase. The following summarizes key viewpoints from various institutions based on the latest news from February, presenting the market's bullish and bearish divergence.

As the market waits in the dark for the crucial January non-farm employment report, a deeper issue has emerged — the world's most closely watched macro data system is losing its reliability and timeliness. In the early hours of February 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that due to another "shutdown" of the federal government, the January non-farm employment report originally scheduled for release this week will be delayed.

This is the second delay in non-farm data within three months. The U.S. government has been in a "technical shutdown" since 0:00 on January 31 due to a budget impasse, and resolving this issue will take at least until February 3.

After hours of heated debate between representatives of banks and the cryptocurrency industry at the White House, both sides remain firm in their positions, leaving only a commitment to 'find a solution by the end of February.'

On February 2, a closed-door meeting that could determine the future of digital finance in the United States was held at the White House Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Representatives from Coinbase, major cryptocurrency trade groups, and banking organizations gathered in Washington to try to resolve the thorny disagreements surrounding yield on stablecoins in the (Clear Digital Assets Market Act) (CLARITY Act).

The banking industry has made it clear that allowing stablecoin payments for yields will trigger a massive outflow of deposits. According to Standard Chartered Bank, by the end of 2028, stablecoins could siphon off about $500 billion in deposits from the U.S. banking system.

1. Trump White House discusses Bitcoin market policies

The Trump White House meeting on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market structure has officially begun, and the meeting may involve discussions on related market policies. -Original

2. U.S. President nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair

U.S. President nominates Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Kraken global economist Thomas Perfumo stated that this move may stabilize overall market liquidity, creating a complex macro background for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin believes that Kevin Warsh advocates for reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and the market's concern over a low liquidity environment has led to declines in the cryptocurrency, stock, and precious metals markets. CMEGroup data shows that 85% of market participants expect the interest rate to remain unchanged at the March 18 meeting. -Original

🔥 In-depth Analysis of ETH's Severe Market Fluctuations

Recently, the price of ETH has experienced extreme fluctuations within just a few minutes. The market accumulated energy from a prolonged downward slump, and then, due to a combination of technical overselling and concentrated buying pressure, a rapid rebound occurred. This article will provide an in-depth analysis from event review, timeline, cause analysis, technical analysis to market outlook.

🕒 Event Review

Around 22:10, the market welcomed a series of positive industry news: including mainnet product upgrades, new features launched by related DApps and trading platforms (such as Coinbase's launch of ZAMA spot trading and HyperCore's introduction of the HIP-4 proposal supporting 'result trading'), injecting confidence into the market. Just as investor sentiment began to improve, on the technical front, ETH entered the oversold zone due to continuous declines, triggering preset stop losses and automatic buy orders. By 22:30, the ETH price quickly rose from about $2315 to $2368, and then continued to fluctuate between 22:30 and 22:47, gradually climbing to $2362. Shortly after, at 23:11, after a brief consolidation, the ETH price fell back to around $2341.76, showing a state of adjustment after rapid surges and drops.

The lights in the Senate Majority Leader's office remain on late into the night as intense arguments between lawmakers from both parties are broadcast via closed-circuit television to the White House Situation Room. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, hundreds of miles away, low-income housewives who have lost federal food assistance are worrying about their next meal.

At midnight local time on January 31, a partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government officially began. This comes just 11 weeks after the longest shutdown in history, which lasted for 43 days, ended in late 2025, plunging the U.S. government into operational paralysis once again.

Although the Senate has already passed a $1.2 trillion funding bill, the House's recess has prevented a vote, leading to a funding impasse. Among the nine core departments, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Education are facing financial difficulties, affecting about 45% of federal employees.

Silver prices plummeted by 26% in less than 20 hours, marking the largest single-day decline in history, as the global precious metals market saw over $50 trillion evaporate in a single day, while Bitcoin's price still stagnated around $87,000.

Last Friday, global traders witnessed a historic moment in the precious metals market. Silver prices fell by 26%, and gold dropped by 9%. The rapid evaporation of trillions of dollars in market value prompted global investors to reassess the flow of funds.

However, amidst the intense fluctuations in precious metals, the cryptocurrency once dubbed 'digital gold' remains unusually quiet, with Bitcoin's price stagnating around $87,000.

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a 'stress test' targeting institutional holdings. After breaking below the $80,000 threshold, Bitcoin's price further declined, reaching and breaching the market-recognized key institutional cost line—MicroStrategy's average holding cost (approximately $76,037) by the end of January 2026.

This event not only triggered a leveraged crash that resulted in over $2.3 billion in liquidations across the entire network but also pushed the market's long-standing reliance on the 'institutional narrative' to a crossroads of doubt. Market sentiment shifted from euphoria to extreme caution, with the fear and greed index at one point falling into the 'extreme fear' zone.

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Event Review ⏱️

Recently, ETH has experienced significant fluctuations, and the market suddenly fell into a panic atmosphere. Since the market opened at 10:30, the ETH price has been plummeting continuously, crashing multiple times in a short period, triggering a large number of forced liquidations of high-leverage positions and an explosion of orders. According to monitoring data, at 10:30, the ETH price hovered between $2292 and $2297, and soon after, it rapidly declined, falling from about $2297 to $2223 within 46 minutes, a drop of 3.26%. Subsequently, throughout the following hour, the price further slid to $2163, accumulating a decline of over 5.6%. By 11:45, the market saw a brief rebound, with ETH rising to $2196.56, but the overall low-level fluctuations and the obvious downward trend still cast a strong pessimistic shadow over the market.

Gold prices plummeted more than 9% in a single day, while silver once dropped 36%. Wall Street traders, faced with the cliff-like charts on their screens, hurriedly dialed back the phones to discuss last night's talks about the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve.

The market has just experienced the baptism of 'Black Friday'—the precious metals market faced an epic sell-off. Meanwhile, the news of Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve has stirred ripples across global markets like a stone thrown into a calm lake.

With the opening of the new trading week on February 3rd, investors will digest the sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, refocusing on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, key non-farm employment data, and the earnings reports of tech giants that influence market sentiment.

Gold fell more than $400 during the day, U.S. Treasury yields surged in response, and the nomination of a former Federal Reserve governor led the global financial market to experience an unexpected 'tightening' storm. On January 30, 2026, local time, U.S. President Trump announced via social media the nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

Once the news broke, the market quickly reacted: major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, the dollar strengthened, while assets like gold and silver plummeted.

This candidate, who combines a Wall Street background, political connections, and central bank experience, proposed a seemingly contradictory policy mix called 'pragmatic monetarism'—advocating for 'balance sheet reduction' to create space for 'interest rate cuts.'

1. Trump jokingly stated that if Waller does not lower interest rates, he will sue Waller

On the day after President Trump announced Kevin Waller as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he jokingly stated during a speech at an event that if Waller does not lower interest rates, he will sue Waller. - Original text

2. Tom Lee predicts that Ethereum's bottom may be at $2400

On February 1, Tom Lee gave his 2026 market outlook on the podcast (The Compound). He believes that the long-term bull market for cryptocurrencies is still in its early stages, but the current market is in a bearish phase, facing significant short-term pressure. Tom Lee predicts that Ethereum may rebound after hitting $2400 as a bottom, and if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to historical highs, the price of Ethereum could reach $12,000. His views are consistent with public predictions made since the beginning of the year, expecting the market to first decline and then rise, with Bitcoin still likely to set a new historical high. - Original text

🚨 Event Review

Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has experienced unprecedented volatility. Market news indicates that several whales and high-leverage traders hurriedly reduced their positions due to unrealized losses approaching forced liquidation, with some institutions even conducting on-chain liquidations, leading to a surge in market selling pressure. At the same time, there have been large ETH transfers into the Beacon Depositor and operations conducted through Tornado Cash addresses, raising concerns about liquidity and privacy security in the market. Additionally, U.S. government funding, uncertainty in macro policies, and geopolitical risks have compounded to stimulate investors' risk-averse sentiment, bringing dual downward pressure to crypto assets.

Event Review 🔥

Recently, the ETH market has experienced a period of intense volatility. Multiple reports revealed that a certain whale had a liquidation of up to $700 million due to high leverage operations last night, which instantly triggered panic in the market. Some traders questioned at 22:41, 'Is ETH going to continue to drop?' indicating a pessimistic market sentiment. Soon after, around 23:00, when the ETH price stabilized at about $2372 on major exchanges, it faced severe selling pressure, triggering a chain liquidation. In just 35 minutes, the price dropped from $2372 to around $2285, with a decline of between 3% and 3.67%. Subsequently, at 00:00, there was a brief recovery to around $2314.71. The entire process revealed the outcome of the interplay of leverage risk, liquidity crisis, and macro shocks.

1. Bitcoin has dropped below $81,000, affected by the explosion in Iran.

2. Hyperliquid whale liquidation exceeds $700 million.

According to MLM monitoring, '1011 Insider Whale' Garrett Bullish (@GarrettBullish) experienced a full liquidation in Hyperliquid, with a single liquidation scale exceeding $700 million. Data shows that over the past two weeks, Garrett Bullish has accumulated losses of approximately $270 million on Hyperliquid. On-chain records indicate that since he started trading with this account in early October 2025, his historical cumulative PnL losses have exceeded $128 million. -Original text

3. Pension fund whale opens a long position of 30,000 ETH, valued at $72.16 million.