📊 FedWatch Update: What Markets Are Pricing In

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool — the market’s go-to gauge for rate expectations — shows traders largely aligned on one outcome for the January 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

🔍 January 2026 Meeting Expectations

Markets currently price a 75–80%+ probability that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged.

• A 25 bps rate cut carries a much smaller likelihood — roughly 20–25%

• Some data snapshots show even stronger conviction, with no-change odds pushing 80–95%

• Variations occur as Fed funds futures update in real time

📉 Looking Ahead: March 2026

Beyond January, expectations start to loosen.

• For March 2026, FedWatch data suggests: – ~50% probability of rates staying the same

– ~42% probability of cumulative easing beginning

• These probabilities shift daily based on futures market positioning

🧠 What FedWatch Really Measures

FedWatch doesn’t predict policy — it reflects how traders are positioning capital.

• Higher cut probability = futures pricing in easing

• Higher hold probability = confidence in policy stability

Markets move first. The Fed reacts later.

🗓️ Why This Week Matters

The FOMC meeting is happening now (Jan 27–28, 2026).

• Consensus expectation: no change to the current 3.50%–3.75% target range

• Any surprise in tone or forward guidance could trigger volatility across risk assets

📌 Want the latest live FedWatch probabilities straight from CME? Just say the word.

🚀 Market Movers (Perps)

🔥 $HANA (HANAUSDT) — 0.02901 (+22.35%)

🔥 $SOMI (SOMIUSDT) — 0.3199 (+42.94%)

🔥 $PIPPIN (PIPPINUSDT) — 0.51275 (+69.63%)

Markets are positioning early. Stay alert. 👀📈