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Bitcoin Whale Positioning Shows Early Signs of Re-Accumulation After Distribution Phase
On-chain data tracking large holders (1K–10K BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools) suggests a notable shift in whale behavior following a prolonged distribution phase in late 2025. After reaching a local peak around mid-2025, total whale balances declined steadily as Bitcoin price remained elevated, indicating classic distribution into strength rather than forced selling.
The 30-day balance change metric confirms this dynamic. Throughout Q3 and early Q4, whale balances consistently posted negative monthly changes, coinciding with increased price volatility and weakening momentum. This divergence highlighted that upside price moves were increasingly driven by marginal buyers rather than sustained accumulation from large holders.
However, recent data shows a clear inflection. Both short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) balance changes have turned positive, while total whale holdings have begun to stabilize and recover from their local lows. Historically, such transitions from net distribution to accumulation tend to occur during periods of price compression or post-correction phases, rather than at market tops.
From a macro on-chain perspective, the 1-year change in whale holdings remains relatively flat, suggesting that the broader cycle has not entered an aggressive accumulation regime yet. This implies the current behavior is more consistent with tactical re-positioning than long-term conviction buying.
In summary, whale activity is no longer exerting sustained sell pressure on Bitcoin supply. While this does not guarantee an immediate bullish continuation, it reduces downside risk and supports the view that the market is transitioning into a stabilization phase, where future price direction will depend on whether accumulation accelerates or stalls at current levels.
Written by CryptoZeno
The 30-day balance change metric confirms this dynamic. Throughout Q3 and early Q4, whale balances consistently posted negative monthly changes, coinciding with increased price volatility and weakening momentum. This divergence highlighted that upside price moves were increasingly driven by marginal buyers rather than sustained accumulation from large holders.
However, recent data shows a clear inflection. Both short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) balance changes have turned positive, while total whale holdings have begun to stabilize and recover from their local lows. Historically, such transitions from net distribution to accumulation tend to occur during periods of price compression or post-correction phases, rather than at market tops.
From a macro on-chain perspective, the 1-year change in whale holdings remains relatively flat, suggesting that the broader cycle has not entered an aggressive accumulation regime yet. This implies the current behavior is more consistent with tactical re-positioning than long-term conviction buying.
In summary, whale activity is no longer exerting sustained sell pressure on Bitcoin supply. While this does not guarantee an immediate bullish continuation, it reduces downside risk and supports the view that the market is transitioning into a stabilization phase, where future price direction will depend on whether accumulation accelerates or stalls at current levels.
Written by CryptoZeno
Izjava o omejitvi odgovornosti: Vključuje mnenja tretjih oseb. Ni finančni nasvet. Lahko vključuje sponzorirano vsebino. Glejte Pogoje.
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