Red Zone without Hysteria

The crypto market is again in the red.

The reason is not one event, but a buildup of uncertainty.

First.

Trump is once again waving tariffs. The threat of 100% duties on all imports from Canada is no longer just rhetoric for headlines, but a real risk of escalation. Yes, there's a TACO rule - Trump often retreats. Yes, the Supreme Court may block it. But markets do not like to wait for 'later.'

Second.

FOMC this week. Rates are almost certainly unchanged. Everyone is looking not at the decision, but at the wording. Any hint at easing in 2026 - and risk assets may come alive. The problem is different: the possibility of a change in the head of the Fed makes forward guidance less reliable than before.

Third.

Corporate reports from Big Tech. Apple, Microsoft, Meta.

If the numbers are strong - the market will remember that it is risk-on.

If not - another turn towards caution.

Additionally, lurking in the background is the risk of a new shutdown.

The summary is simple.

The market is not panicking - it is frozen.

Any positive news can trigger a rebound.

But for now, fear dominates.

And this is felt not in prices, but in behavior.