🇨🇳 “Temu catches Amazon in global e-commerce”
Every outlet ran this headline today.
Zero read the methodology.
The IPC survey measured TRANSACTION COUNT.
Not dollars. Not GMV. Not revenue.
Shopping trips.
Temu’s average basket: $15
Amazon’s average basket: $40
Same “24% share.”
$290 billion gap in reality.
Temu 2025 GMV: ~$90B
Amazon cross-border: ~$380B+
That’s not parity.
That’s a 4:1 moat wearing identical makeup.
A $3 phone case from Shenzhen counts the same as a $200 Prime order in this survey. Thirty-one thousand shoppers asked about their “most recent purchase.” Frequency measured. Value ignored.
What Temu achieved IS extraordinary: <1% to 24% share in 36 months. 416 million monthly users. Factory-direct pricing gutting middlemen.
But it conquered the impulse aisle.
Not the ecosystem.
Wall Street already repositioned. You’re reading headlines while institutions read footnotes.
This satisfies if Temu GMV hits $150B by Dec 2027.
Until then: volume story. Value illusion.
Read the methodology.
