šš Bitwise CEO: Bitcoinās Four-Year Cycle Is Breaking ā 2026 Remains Undefined
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley shared new insights suggesting that Bitcoinās traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply.
š§ Key Points from Horsleyās Analysis
1ļøā£ Common belief: Investors expect a downturn in 2026, following the historical 4-year pattern.
2ļøā£ First-order effect: To avoid that āexpectedā downturn, many plan to sell in 2025.
3ļøā£ Second-order effect: Heavy selling in 2025 could cause 2025 itself to become a down year ā breaking the cycle.
4ļøā£ Third-order effect: With the pattern disrupted, 2026 is no longer defined, and the four-year cycle loses its predictive power.
Horsley emphasized that the four-year model belongs to the old era of crypto. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, new market participants, and new trading behaviors, the market structure has fundamentally changed.
He also noted that crypto may have already gone through a six-month bear phase ā and that the bear market could be ending soon.
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