#gold #btc

Bitcoin continued to struggle below the $90,000 level as global investors rotated deeper into traditional safe-haven assets, with gold and silver extending historic rallies — and Bitcoin’s underperformance reigniting debate over whether emerging risks such as quantum computing are beginning to influence market behavior.While some investors argue that quantum threats are now being priced in, on-chain analysts and long-term Bitcoin developers say the current weakness reflects far more conventional forces: profit-taking, supply unlocking near $100,000, and shifting macro liquidity.Bitcoin lags gold and equities as safe-haven demand acceleratesAt the Wall Street open on Friday, Bitcoin remained locked in a narrow consolidation range after failing to reclaim the $90,000–$93,500 resistance zone.The divergence between Bitcoin and traditional assets has widened sharply.Since just after Donald Trump’s November 2024 election victory:Bitcoin: −2.6%Silver: +205%Gold: +83%Nasdaq: +24%S&P 500: +17.6%Gold climbed to fresh all-time highs near $4,930 per ounce, while silver surged toward $96, extending a powerful multi-month safe-haven bid driven by geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt risks, and central bank accumulation.Bitcoin, by contrast, remains roughly 30% below its October 2025 peak, reinforcing perceptions that crypto is behaving more like a high-beta risk asset than a hedge during the current macro regime.Gold price forecast sees potential path to $23,000As precious metals dominate flows, long-term bullish forecasts for gold have intensified.Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, projected that gold could reach $12,000 to $23,000 per ounce over the next three to eight years, citing:Record central bank gold accumulationAccelerating fiat money supply expansion (over 10% annually)China increasing gold reserves nearly tenfold in two yearsDeclining confidence in sovereign debt markets“If this cycle mirrors historic 20th-century asset expansions, gold’s upside is far from finished,” Edwards wrote.While gold’s monthly RSI has reached its most overbought levels since the 1970s, analysts argue that structural demand — not speculation — is driving the rally.Bitcoin stagnation revives quantum computing fearsBitcoin’s continued underperformance has reopened a long-running debate around quantum computing risks.Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter reignited the discussion this week, arguing that Bitcoin’s “mysterious” weakness reflects growing market awareness of quantum threats.“Bitcoin’s underperformance is due to quantum,” Carter said. “The market is speaking — the devs aren’t listening.”His comments sparked immediate pushback from on-chain analysts and long-term investors.Analysts: market structure, not quantum risk, explains price actionOn-chain researchers argue that attributing Bitcoin’s consolidation to quantum fears misreads current market dynamics.Checkonchain analyst @Checkmatey said Bitcoin’s behavior mirrors historical supply-driven cycles rather than speculative technological threats.“Gold has a bid because sovereigns are buying it instead of treasuries,” he said. “Bitcoin saw heavy HODLer sell-side in 2025 — enough to kill prior bull markets multiple times over.”Bitcoin investor and author Vijay Boyapati echoed that view, pointing to a more tangible trigger:“The real explanation is the unlocking of enormous supply once we hit a psychological level for whales — $100,000.”According to on-chain data, long-term holders significantly increased distribution as Bitcoin approached six figures, releasing supply that absorbed new ETF and institutional demand and capped upside momentum.Quantum threat remains theoretical, developers sayDespite renewed attention, most Bitcoin developers continue to view quantum computing as a long-term, manageable risk, not a near-term market driver.Quantum machines capable of running algorithms like Shor’s algorithm, which could theoretically break elliptic curve cryptography, remain far from practical deployment.Blockstream co-founder Adam Back has repeatedly stated that even worst-case scenarios would not result in immediate or network-wide losses.Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-360 already outlines a migration path toward quantum-resistant address formats, allowing gradual upgrades well before any credible threat emerges.Developers emphasize that such transitions would unfold over many years, not market cycles — making quantum risk an unlikely explanation for short-term price weakness.Traditional finance raises concerns, but timeline remains distantSome traditional finance voices have nevertheless flagged quantum computing as a future consideration.Earlier this month, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from a model portfolio, citing long-term quantum risk among his concerns.However, industry analysts note that the key challenge is not whether Bitcoin can adapt — but how long such an upgrade would take if ever required.That timeline is measured in decades, not quarters.Bitcoin remains macro-sensitive as capital favors preservationFor now, market participants say Bitcoin remains trapped in a macro-driven environment dominated by:Rising global bond yieldsTrade tensions and geopolitical uncertaintySovereign rotation into goldCapital preservation over speculative growthAs a result, traders remain focused on key technical levels rather than long-term existential risks.Bitcoin must reclaim the $91,000–$93,500 zone to restore upside momentum. Failure to do so leaves downside support clustered between $85,000 and $88,000.Until monetary or geopolitical clarity improves, analysts say Bitcoin is likely to remain reactive rather than directional — while gold continues to benefit from a historic shift in global capital flows, according to Cointelegraph.