$XRP has failed to sustain its recent rally above the $2.35 level and now appears poised for a pullback toward $1.85 after breaking through multiple support zones. The move below $2 marks a notable structural shift, as the level represents a key psychological threshold for Ripple holders, according to leading on-chain analytics data.
XRP Structure Resembles 2022 Pattern: Glassnode
Glassnode data suggests that XRP’s current market structure closely mirrors conditions seen in early 2022. The similarity in short-term holder cost basis has reignited debate over whether XRP is setting up for a sharp correction or positioning for a rebound.
On-chain metrics show that investors in the 1-week to 1-month holding cohort are accumulating $XRP at prices below the realized cost basis of the 6-month to 12-month cohort.
This growing divergence places increasing psychological pressure on longer-term holders who entered at higher price levels, raising the risk of heightened selling activity if market sentiment continues to deteriorate.
Overall, the cost basis alignment flagged by Glassnode highlights a fragile phase for XRP, where price direction may hinge on whether buyers can reclaim lost support or sellers regain control.
Notably, in February 2022, XRP was trading near $0.80 when the realized price of the 1-week to 1-month cohort fell below that of the 6-month to 12-month holders.
What followed was a broad market downturn that triggered a steep decline of nearly 60%, pushing XRP down to lows around $0.30 as both retail investors and whales exited their positions.
Glassnode data also highlights the importance of the $2 psychological level, which has consistently acted as a key support zone for XRP by influencing holder spending behavior.
Each retest of this level has historically resulted in substantial realized losses, ranging between $500 million and $1.2 billion on a weekly basis, as holders capitulated under pressure.
Further reinforcing the cautious outlook, the XRP Whale Flow 30-day moving average has remained in negative territory even during the recent price rebound. This suggests that distribution by large holders is still underway.
Although selling pressure has moderated compared to earlier phases, net outflows continue to hover near $20 million per day, indicating that whales have yet to fully step back from the market.
If you’d like, I can map out downside risk levels, compare this setup with other 2022 analogs, or add a bullish invalidation scenario to round out the analysis.
Analysts on Potential Price Action
XRP experienced choppy price action today, slipping 2% to trade near $1.93. The token recorded an intraday high of $2.03 and a low around $1.93. Trading volume fell by 22% over the past 24 hours, signaling waning participation and reduced trader interest.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt, alongside other analysts such as Ali Martinez, warned of a potential XRP breakdown toward $1 if bulls fail to defend the critical $1.80 support level. These concerns are amplified by ongoing whale selloffs, which continue to weigh on market structure.
Derivatives data from CoinGlass paints a similarly bearish picture. Total $XRP futures open interest dropped by more than 4% to $3.42 billion over the past day.
Open interest on major platforms also declined sharply, with CME and Binance seeing drops of nearly 3% and 5%, respectively. The contraction suggests that traders are reducing exposure amid growing downside risks.
Still, not all analysts are pessimistic. CrediBULL Crypto noted that lower-timeframe charts are beginning to present potential buy-the-dip opportunities for long positions.
However, he emphasized the need for strict risk management given the fragile market environment. Attention remains fixed on U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming Davos speech, which could act as a catalyst for XRP’s next directional move.
Meanwhile, analyst Dom argued that the recent rally lacked conviction. His order flow analysis showed limited buyer support, suggesting the move higher was largely driven by thin liquidity rather than sustained demand.
According to Dom, $1.80 remains the next key support to watch, with any further downside potentially triggering a broader breakdown. For bulls to regain momentum, XRP would need to reclaim the $2.05 level to open the door for another upside attempt.
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